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Can FaceBook (NASDAQ:FB) Save The Markets

May 18th, 2012

U.S. stocks slid on Thursday, with the S&P down for a 10th out of 12 sessions. It feels as if the world is ending with a path taken similar to the 2008 financial crisis. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) $GS just hit 2011′s low, but will it hold? We are in the midst of a garden-variety correction, and those tend to manifest themselves anywhere from 5% to 10% from peak to trough, and now the S&P 500 is down about 7% from its April high. The biggest driver for the recent sell off is our over-arching concern that Greece’s inevitable exit from the euro zone may cause a run on some of the other southern European banks, like in Spain, Portugal and Italy. When things just couldn’t get any worse, Moody’s downgrades 16 Spanish banks coincidentally. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded 16 Spanish banks and Santander UK PLC, a U.K.-domiciled subsidiary of Banco Santander SA (STD, SAN.MC), the latest blow for a country already facing economic recession, surging unemployment and a five-year property bust. US housing is keen to see a double dip in housing. On the bright side…will (NASDAQ:FB) $FB save the US markets this morning?

Moody’s Downgrade

Moody’s said the downgrades–which range from one to three notches–primarily reflect the concurrent downgrades of most of these banks’ standalone credit assessments. For five banks, the downgrades also reflect Moody’s view that the Spanish government’s ability to provide support to these banks has been reduced.

The ratings firm said the drivers for the downgrades stem from adverse operating conditions, due to Spain’s renewed recession, ongoing real-estate crisis and high levels of unemployment; reduced creditworthiness of the Spanish sovereign; rapid asset-quality deterioration; and restricted market funding access.

Earlier this week, the ratings agency downgraded its ratings on 26 Italian lenders, part of a series of similar moves on sovereign and corporate debt issuers across the euro zone’s periphery. Moody’s downgraded Spain’s sovereign rating in February.

Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA, BBVA.MC), Banco Espanol de Credito (BNSTY, BTO.MC), Unicaja Banco SA and Banco Popular Espanol were all downgraded to A3. Santander UK was downgraded by one notch to A2. Banco Cooperativo Espanol was downgraded by three notches to Baa1 while Caja Rural De Navarra and Banco Sabadell were both downgraded by one notch to Baa1.

Bankinter was downgraded three notches to Baa2. Caja Rural De Granada was downgraded two notches to Baa3, Liberbank SA was downgraded to Ba1, Cajamar Caja Rural was downgraded to Ba2 and Lico Leasing was downgraded to Ba3

CaixaBank (CAIXY, CABK.MC) received a three-notch downgrade to A3, Caja de Ahorros y Pensiones de Barcelona was downgraded to Baa2 and CECA was downgraded by three notches to Baa2.

Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Spain’s sovereign credit rating by two notches in April, citing “a challenging fiscal outlook” amid worries on the ability of the country’s regions to curb spending. Later that month, it followed up by taking negative rating actions on 16 Spanish banks, including a raft of downgrades.

FaceBook IPO

The most hyped IPO of the year is here, but you won’t be able to trade Facebook’s stock right when the market until late morning on Friday. Facebook — can decide when to debut and works with Nasdaq to set the time. Technically, an IPO stock could even start trading in the afternoon, as long as it’s well before the closing bell at 4 p.m. ET. But most recent Nasdaq IPOs have typically begun trading a few minutes before 11 a.m. ET. Facebook said it has priced its IPO at $38 a share. At that price, Facebook’s IPO will raise $16 billion, making it the largest tech IPO in history. It’s the third largest U.S. IPO ever, trailing only the $19.7 billion raised by Visa (V, Fortune 500) in March 2008 and the $18.1 billion raised by automaker General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) in November 2010.

The $38 IPO price is the rate at which Facebook’s underwriters (including lead banker Morgan Stanley) will sell shares to their clients, which typically include large institutional investors, mutual funds and hedge funds. Shares will be released Thursday night to those buyers, who can resell them on the open market beginning on Friday. Some shares were made available to individual investors, but getting them typically requires either a lot of money or a lot of trading experience. It also required moving fast. Many brokerages offering pieces of Facebook’s IPO allotment “closed their books” on Tuesday, meaning they stopped taking orders. Ordinary investors looking to get a piece of Facebook will have to wait until Friday morning.

On the morning that an IPO begins trading on the Nasdaq, the exchange starts a process called the “IPO cross.” During that time, traders can submit buy and sell orders. The Nasdaq matches up those orders in real-time on its electronic marketplace — a process that typically takes 40 microseconds or less. Those orders can be entered into the system, but they aren’t actually completed until the stock begins trading.

Selling by the Whales of FaceBook:

Zuckerberg selling off around 30 million shares in Facebook’s IPO, raising $1.1 billion, but he won’t be hanging on to most of the cash: Facebook say he’ll use it to pay off a massive tax bill on a stock-options exercise.

No. 2, Facebook’s chief operating officer, wooed from Google in 2008. Sheryl Sandberg currently holds around 2 million Facebook shares, but has another 39 million that will vest if she stays with Facebook for several more years.

Accel Partners, a venture capital fund led by Jim Breyer. He led the company’s $12 million investment round in Facebook in 2005. Accel’s stake is now worth more than $7 billion — and it’s cashing out. Accel plans to collect nearly $2 billion from selling shares in Facebook’s IPO.

Co-founder Napster, Parker owns 70 million shares at 2.6 billion

Dustin Moskovitz owns 134 million shares at 5.1 billion

At $38 a share, Facebook’s outstanding warrants work out to a take of around $4.3 million per employee. California and Uncle Sam will carve off a big slice of that pie. Facebook says it expects towithhold at least $4.4 billion from its employees’ stock stashes to pay the taxes due on their windfalls.

Kevin Systrom (pictured) and Mike Krieger struck gold when they recently sold their 2-year-old photo sharing Instagram startup to Facebook. The Instagram crew took home $300 million cash and almost 23 million Facebook shares, a stock stash now worth $874 million. That takes the Instagram deal’s value up to almost $1.2 billion.

Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss are best known for filing a giant lawsuit against Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook, claiming Zuckerberg stole his idea for the social network from their site, ConnectU. Cash-and-stock settlement deal was struck in 2008. The twins were granted 1.2 million Facebook shares in a deal valued at the time at around $65 million. Thanks to a five-for-one stock spilt, they’re now sitting on 6 million shares — a $228 million windfall.

Graffiti artist David Choe. Sean Parker, who brought him on to paint Facebook’s headquarters. Instead of taking $60,000 for the job, Choe opted for Facebook stock. No one knows exactly how many shares Choe has — he declined to comment when we asked — but the New York Times estimates his holdings at $200 million.

In 2007, Microsoft beat out major players like Google to buy a 1.6% equity stake in Facebook for $240 million. At the time, Facebook was valued at $15 billion. Five years later, Facebook’s valuation has soared — giving Microsoft a stake worth more than $1 billion.

Other investors will also hit the jackpot. Silicon Valley “angle” investor Peter Thiel put up $500,000 to get Facebook through its first summer of operations. His 2.5% stake in Facebook is now worth around $1.7 billion. Investment firm DST Global holds a Facebook stake worth almost $5 billion.

About the S&P bleeding first written on May 4th here and again on May 14th here. If you had taken heed to my warnings you could have profited 20% in VXX as a hedge against the drop in the markets. In addition to the hedge you could have locked in those gains in your 401k and Roth IRA.

Hear are my targets to look for. As you will notice, below 2nd leg downward has commenced. Protect yourself with insurance $VXX. EXPECT MORE ACCELERATED SELLING

Target 1: Support 1377.4  –If fails then~>Broken May 4th

Target 2: Support 1360.0 If fails then~> Broken May 8th

Target 3:  Support 1342.00 If fails then~> Broken May 14th

Target 4:  Support 1309.00 If fails then~> Broken May 17th

Target 5:  Absolute Support 1277 -1265 If fails then~>we are deep trouble and are heading towards 1200 -1225

Will The Greeks Return To The Drachma

May 16th, 2012

Drachma (until 2002)) was the currency used in Greece during several periods in its history. Three modern Greek currencies, the first introduced in 1832 and the last replaced by the euro in 2001 (at the rate of 340.750 drachma to the euro). The euro did not begin circulating until 2002 but the exchange rate was fixed on 19 June 2000, with legal introduction of the euro taking place in January 2002. Greece populous is growing support with rumor that the return of the Drachma may be in favor to help Greece of it’s debt. Is the true?

In 1953, in an effort to halt inflation, Greece joined the Bretton Woods system. In 1954, the drachma was revalued at a rate of 1000 to 1. The new currency was pegged at 30 drachmae = 1 United States dollar. In 1973, the Bretton Woods System was abolished; over the next 25 years the official exchange rate gradually declined, reaching 400 drachmae to 1 U. S. dollar. On January 1, 2002, the Greek drachma was officially replaced as the circulating currency by the euro.

In a editorial by Landon Thomas Jr. in the New York Times issued this morning discussed the time to ponder the once unthinkable: that Greece might end its 10-year use of the euro and return to its former currency, the drachma.

Such a move is still officially anathema in Athens. But a growing body of economists argues that it would be the best course, whatever the near-term financial and economic implications. And now, with a referendum on the European-led bailout facing Greek voters, a vocal minority that has long called for a return to the drachma might find itself with a growing group of listeners.

A return to the drachma is unlikely to offer a quick cure for Greece’s ills. Default on the nation’s $500 billion in public debt would become a certainty, depositors would take their money out of local banks and, with a sharp devaluation of as much as 50 percent, inflation would loom. A return to the international credit markets would take years.

But drachma defenders contend that these worst fears are overdone. Yes, there would be disruption and panic initially. But, they say, pointing to Argentina’s case when it broke its peg with the dollar in 2002, the export boom ignited by a cheaper currency and the ability to control the drachma would eventually work in Greece’s favor.

“The real problem is that we are operating under a foreign currency,” Vasilis Serafeimakis, a senior executive at Avinoil, one of Greece’s largest oil and gas distribution companies, said of the euro. In the last year, he has been banging the bring-back-the-drachma drum.

“If we had our own currency, we could at least print money,” Mr. Serafeimakis said, referring to the ability to revalue the drachma. “And what is the worst thing that happens if we do this? I don’t get a Christmas gift from one of my bankers.”

According to a recent poll in the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, 66 percent of Greeks believe that returning to the drachma would be bad. But proponents of a euro exit say that beneath the surface, more Greeks are beginning to question the euro.

“The view that Greece should exit the euro is more widespread than you would think,” said Costas Lapavitsas, a Greek economist at the University of London who has long pressed for a return to the drachma. “It is just that the opposing view is so dominant.”

Until now, many Greeks have been wedded to a European identity forged by a national embrace of the euro and the wealth that, for a time, came along with it. Talk of returning to the drachma had mainly been held up as an apocalyptic vision rather than a viable policy option.

But for a growing number of Greeks, the collapse of their economy is apocalypse enough.

Prime Minister George A. Papandreou threw down the gauntlet to the Greek people Monday when he surprised the world by announcing a referendum on the latest bailout plan. But it was his finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, who that same day put a finer point on the question.

“Are we for Europe, the euro zone and the euro?” he asked. Or, he continued, does Greece return to the drachma?

Under the latest bailout plan from Europe, Greek debt held by private institutions would be written down by 50 percent. In return, as long as Greece stayed on track carrying out painful austerity measures through 2015, Athens would continue to receive more bailout money to finance its remaining debt.

When Mr. Papandreou brought that tentative deal back from Brussels last week, the escalated protests and rioting on Greek streets were a sign that it was not something his people would easily stand for.

Supporters of a return to the drachma note that the severe budget cuts of the last two years had resulted in almost closing the budget deficit — as long as interest payments on its debt are not counted.

Stripping out interest payments, Greece is expected to register a budget surplus next year of 1.5 percent of its gross domestic product (compared with a budget deficit of 8 percent of G.D.P., when interest is counted), and that, in effect, would give it the freedom to stop paying its debts.

It is an argument for defaulting on the debt and starting over, in other words. That sense of reborn autonomy is what lies behind the drachma movement that Mr. Serafeimakis is promoting.

For more than a year, he has been educating himself about the euro. He has pestered economists and written passionate posts on obscure blogs, convinced that the benefits from a devaluation of Greek’s currency, while no doubt painful, would result in a return to growth more quickly than further wage cuts and layoffs.

Outside the country, meantime, many prominent voices have argued for more than a year that it is impossible for Greece to regain competitiveness while clinging to the euro currency. They include prominent economists like Nouriel Roubini, Kenneth S. Rogoff and Martin Feldstein, as well as the investor George Soros.

Now, a small but growing band of Greek economists, none of them very well known, is beginning to ask the same question: namely, whether the benefit of having a cheap currency under Greek control would outweigh the costs of defaulting on its debt and abandoning the euro.

In a recent paper, Stergios Skaperdas, a Greek economist at the University of California, Irvine, argued that a cheaper drachma would stem imports, bolster exports and, crucially, give Greece the flexibility to control its own monetary policy and ease the effects of fiscal retrenchment.

Mr. Skaperdas conceded that getting this view across remained a difficult one as many Greeks found it troubling to accept that their euro dream might be over.

“For most Greeks, including economists, adopting the euro was like marrying a dream spouse — beautiful, intelligent, caring, even rich,” he said. “And then, rather suddenly, the marriage turned into a nightmare.”

A euro divorce would carry substantial costs, most profoundly an immediate run on Greek banks. That is why mainstream Greek economists insist that there will be no such outcome.

“There is no way that Greece leaves the euro — this will take us back many years,” said Yannis Stournaras, an influential economist in Athens who has advised past governments. “We would have a disorderly default, the debt would double — it is out of the question.”

But in a recent study, Theodore Mariolis, an economist at Panteion University in Athens, argued that the No. 1 problem for Greece under the current system — ahead of debt sustainability, unemployment and the problems of a mismanaged public sector — was its international competitiveness, which he said had declined 30 percent since the country embraced the euro.

Mr. Mariolis estimated that a 50 percent devaluation of the new drachma would soon erase this competitiveness gap.

The views of Mr. Mariolis and Mr. Skaperdas have remained within the narrow confines of academia. Other economists, like Theodore Katsanevas, have taken a more aggressive approach by pushing their drachma solution on Greek television.

“A Greek hotel room is two times as expensive as one in Turkey,” he said, ridiculing the notion that the steep wage cuts and public sector firings that are being demanded by Europe and the International Monetary Fund would restore competitiveness. “We are almost dead now — what we need is a resurrection.”

In many ways, the drachma’s most passionate and well-known local proponent is also its most controversial.

For the last two years, the media magnate George Kouris has used his flagship tabloid, Avriani, to run a relentless campaign that argues Greece is best off leaving the euro for the drachma.

Mr. Kouris, owner of the country’s leading evening news channel, is a die-hard opponent of Mr. Papandreou, and he has been accused of pushing the drachma as a means to wipe out his group’s significant euro debts, a charge he denies.

But he is insistent that the only way forward is for Greece to return to an earlier time.

“The people who now support the euro are the people that put us into it and made us a sick country,” he said. “Before the euro, a bottle of water was 0.50 drachmas. Now it’s 1.70 euros. It is a tragedy.”

World Markets Continue to Bleed; S&P Has Further Downside

May 14th, 2012

U.S. stocks closed at more than three-month lows Monday, and the S&P slid for the seventh session in nine, as investors worried about Greece’s potential exit from the euro zone. The market appears to be discounting a Greek exit from the euro. Greek politicians over the weekend failed to reach an agreement on a unity government, raising the likelihood of new elections and the risk of halted international aid payments. With the S&P 500 starting off the day about 5% from recent highs, not much “damage” has been done yet…..

Hear are my targets to look for. As you will notice, below 2nd leg downward has commenced. Protect yourself with insurance $VXX. EXPECT MORE ACCELERATED SELLING

Target 1: Support 1377.4  –If fails then~>Broken May 4th

Target 2: Support 1360.0 If fails then~> Broken May 8th

Target 3:  Support 1342.00 If fails then~> Broken May 14th

Target 4:  Support 1309.00 If fails then~>

Target 5:  Absolute Support 1277 -1265 If fails then~>we are deep trouble.

In Greece, a political stalemate entered a second week with no agreement on a unity government. Greek, Spanish and Italian bond yields spiked, and European stocks dropped. German government yields, like U.S. Treasurys, fell as investors sought the two countries’ debt as relative safe havens. No region has done more to insulate itself from a Greek exit than Germany, where banks’ consolidated risk exposure to Greece fell from $34 billion at the end of 2010 to $13 billion at the end of 2011. U.S. banks had less than $4.5 billion of exposure to Greek debt at the end of 2011.

Shares of London-traded shares of De La Rue hit a 52-week high on Monday, as analyst’s calling it another indication of what the market thinks of the chances of Greece remaining in the euro. De La Rue makes physical currency, and if Greece exits the euro, “a lot of drachma will have to be created and De La Rue would be the likely maker of it.

On Sunday, Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the far-left Syriza party, which received the second-largest number of votes in the country’s stunningly inconclusive parliamentary elections on May 6, said that he would not be attending talks today with Greece’s conservative-leaning New Democracy party, and the socialist Pasok party. Separately, Fotis Kouvelis, the leader of the Democratic Left party, reportedly told Greek television that a unity government would not emerge. With no deal in sight, a new election next month is a growing possibility. Investors fear the Syriza party could come out on top in a new vote. Syriza’s Tsipras has renounced what he has termed the “barbaric” terms of the country’s latest bailout, while insisting the country could remain in the euro. “It is generally accepted that the euro zone is better positioned now for a Greek exit than it was a year ago,” said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank International, in a note. “That said, it is widely accepted that any sign that Greece could be preparing to exit the system would still trigger contagion in the more vulnerable euro-zone bond markets.”

The greatest uncertainty surrounds how much collateral damage a Greek exit would wreak on other vulnerable—and much larger—sovereigns, particularly given the already-weakened position of Spain.

Yields on Spanish 10-year government bonds, advanced 31 basis points to 6.34%, pushing borrowing costs near the level seen late last year before the European Central Bank stepped in with its liquidity-providing long-term refinancing operations, or LTROs.

The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond, was up 24 basis points at 5.92%.

Euro-zone finance ministers, who are scheduled to hold their monthly meeting in Brussels on Monday, are expected to take a hard line on Greece.

Greece must still approve additional budget cuts by midyear as part of its second bailout. The electoral impasse raises the odds that Greece could soon run out of money, raising a fresh threat of default that could lead to its exit from the euro zone. Germany has insisted that Greece must stick to the program, while a handful of European Central Bank officials over the weekend opined that a Greek exit, while potentially messy, could occur. A return to the drachma would almost certainly lead to the collapse of Greece’s banking system as depositors flee. Greece would see the value of the drachma plunge, while its international debts would presumably remain denominated in euros.

Fitch Ratings on Friday said if Greece were to leave the euro zone it would likely place the sovereign ratings of all the remaining euro-area member states on ratings watch negative.

Bond yields on German, U.K., Dutch, Swedish and Finnish government debt, perceived as safe-havens, all plunged to their lowest levels on record,

Up 100% – Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) $ARNA

May 10th, 2012



This evening, Arena and its investors should definitely be breaking out the champagne. Congrats to all loyal followers of @Ace52weekhigh. He nailed it again by advising all club members via email and sharing this report released Monday, May 7th. He had provided you multiple scenarios on ways to invest and score big! A panel of experts chosen by the Food and Drug Administration voted 18 to 4, with one abstention, that the agency should approve lorcaserin, a new weight loss drug developed by Arena Pharmaceuticals and Eisai, potentially providing a new obesity drug to patients for the first time in a decade. Shares of Arena, which were halted during the meeting, are up more than 90% in after-hours trading as of 6:45 PM EST. Please bear in mind this is solely FDA Advisory panel that goes before the FDA Governing body for approval. Historically, if FDA Advisory Committee approves, FDA body follows. Again read between the lines-Most of the times. The options mind you are reading a +400 implied volatility. According to my calculations, we should see a +200% gain on the $5 calls as I had recommended. I’ve been receiving a tremendous pouring of emails as I refresh my inbox. Followers have been expressing their excitement on this huge score!! One touted he made $1,600 yesterday alone on a small option position. This excitement shared from my followers is my sole motivation to keep finding these winners and relay my trading strategies. Combing through studies and financial statements with relentless market analysis is what keeps me up at night, but I know in the end, its all worth it for scores like these!! Keep pouring in those emails, Tweets, and posts. I bask in glory for winners like us! Keep tuning in for the next trading strategy. Remember there’s nothing wrong in taking profits. Bulls make money, Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered. “Gordon Gekko” happy basking in glory and swimming in those boat loads! Buy your wife, kids or yourself a little something and contribute to our economy.

Here’s the latest development through PR Newswire

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA) and Eisai Inc. announced today the expansion of the lorcaserin marketing and supply agreement between Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s wholly owned subsidiary, Arena Pharmaceuticals GmbH, and Eisai Inc. Lorcaserin is an investigational drug candidate intended for weight management. In addition to the United States, the territories in the expanded agreement now include most of North and South America, including Canada, Mexico and Brazil. This expansion builds on the agreement executed by Eisai and Arena in July 2010 for Eisai’s exclusive rights to market and distribute lorcaserin in the United States, subject to lorcaserin’s approval by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

“Obesity is a condition that transcends geographic boundaries,” said Lonnel Coats, President and Chief Executive Officer, Eisai Inc. “Through this expanded agreement, we believe Eisai has an opportunity to help address the significant and growing need for medical obesity treatments by bringing a potential new option to physicians and patients throughout the Americas.”

As in the original agreement, Arena will manufacture lorcaserin at its facility in Switzerland and sell finished product to Eisai for marketing and distribution, subject to applicable regulatory approvals in the territories. Under the expanded agreement, Arena is eligible to receive increased payments based upon Eisai’s net sales of lorcaserin in the United States and expanded North and South American territories. Additionally, Arena will receive an upfront payment and is eligible to receive regulatory and development milestone payments.

“We believe in Eisai’s human health care mission to help satisfy unmet medical needs and increase benefits to patients and their families,” said Jack Lief, Arena’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “The expanded commercialization agreement further supports our belief in the medical potential of lorcaserin in the United States and beyond.”

Conference Call & Webcast

Arena will host a conference call and webcast tomorrow, May 11, 2012, at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (5:00 a.m. Pacific Time) to provide a business update. The conference call may be accessed by dialing 877.643.7155 for domestic callers and 914.495.8552 for international callers. Please specify to the operator that you would like to join the “Lorcaserin” conference call. The conference call will be webcast live under the investor relations section of Arena’s website at www.arenapharm.com, and will be archived there for 30 days following the call. Please connect to Arena’s website several minutes prior to the start of the broadcast to ensure adequate time for any software download that may be necessary.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) $ARNA Trading Halted

May 10th, 2012

Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA) ($ARNA) experimental weight drug. Biotech industry watchers are paying close attention to an FDA advisory committee today that will judge the biotech’s drug, lorcaserin, a contender in the race to break a long dry spell in U.S. approvals for diet pills. As indicated Here trading has been halted today. To follow the panel live commentary listen here directly from the FDA Panel.

http://fdalive.com/index.cfm

Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA) New 52 Week High

May 8th, 2012

Today @ACE52weekHigh nailed another one. He shared his interest in $ARNA via Twitter several times over the past week. Inclusive of last nights post here. Shares may continue to be forced higher by a short squeeze effect. Shares of Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA) traded at a new 52-week high today of $3.49, up 25.74%.  Today traded approximately 51 million shares have, as compared to an average 30-day volume of 15.1 million shares.

Arena Pharmaceuticals share prices have moved between a 52-week high of $3.49 and a 52-week low of $1.23 and are now trading 165% above that low price at $3.14 per share. The 200-day and 50-day moving averages have moved 1.08% higher and 2.29% higher over the past week, respectively.

The Option straddle  is still in play as it has become equal weight The $2 put spread at .41 vs $5 Call at .41.

Gold (NYSE:GLD) $GLD Hits 4 Month Lows

May 8th, 2012

Gold $GLD (NYSE:GLD) slid to its lowest in four months on Tuesday after the euro fell on the back of increasing investor concern about Europe’s ability to haul itself out of the debt crisis and return to growth. Gold has lost 15 percent from its record $1,921.15 an ounce in September as the European debt crisis, combined with reduced expectations for further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, boosted the dollar. Spot gold traded at $1,611.32 an ounce at 9:41 a.m. The euro traded close to its lowest against the dollar since late January after the leader of Greece’s Left Coalition party said Athens’ commitment to the EU/IMF financing deal had been rendered void after voters rejected pro-bailout parties in Sunday’s general election. Data showing a sharp jump in exports of gold in March from Hong Kong to mainland China, soon to be the world’s top bullion consumer, did little to support the price but did reinforce analysts’ expectations for gold to benefit in the longer term from Chinese demand.

Growth-linked assets such as European equities and industrial commodities including crude oil, copper and palladium came under pressure as investors bought the dollar as a means of reducing risk, especially in light of recent U.S. data that suggests recovery is taking hold in the world’s largest economy.

Gold priced in euros was down around 1.2 percent on the day at 1,238.76 euros ($1,600) an ounce. So far this month, euro-priced gold has outperformed the dollar-equivalent, with a decline of just 0.6 percent compared with a fall of more than 2 percent in benchmark dollar-denominated gold. What we’ve seen in recent weeks is rallies have been increasingly weaker on the upside, and that is a warning that we are going to see another test on the downside. Gold didn’t benefit from the latest European problems and part of that is the U.S., which has been outperforming relatively speaking, so that is handing the dollar strength.

In Greece, Leftist party leader Alexis Tsipras said he would not cooperate with the country’s two main parties, the conservative New Democracy and the socialist PASOK, unless they renege on pledges they made to stick to an EU/IMF bailout deal. The Left Coalition has been given a three-day window to try and form a coalition government after New Democracy, which captured the largest vote share at Sunday’s election, failed to make headway. This left the euro below $1.30 and near its lowest in nearly four months. The single European currency also came under pressure from concern over how far new French Socialist leader Francois Hollande can change Europe’s policy focus from austerity to restoring growth.

The correlation between the euro and the gold price hit its highest in four months in late April and has since softened but still implies the two are more likely to move in lockstep with each other than in opposite directions.

ROBUST CHINA

Imports from Hong Kong were 135,529 kilograms (135.53 metric tons) between January and March, from 19,729 kilograms in the year-earlier period, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government. Shipments in March rose 59 percent from February, yesterday’s data showed. Demand has climbed in the world’s second-largest economy as rising incomes and curbs on property speculation boosted purchases. China may become the biggest user annually this year, according to a forecast from the producer-funded World Gold Council. Last year, total Indian demand including for jewelry and investment was 933.4 tons to China’s 769.8 tons. They’re looking at another solid year for Chinese demand based on these early numbers. While it’s largely related to price, negative real interest rates should keep demand strong

On the supportive front for gold, Hong Kong’s gold shipments to mainland China in March jumped nearly 59 percent from the previous month to the third-highest level on record, while the gold flow from China surged to the most in at least two years. Hong Kong shipped 62,907 kilograms of gold to mainland China in March and received 24,835 kg of gold from the mainland, leaving the net exports at 38,072 kg, up 16 percent from February, data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed.

The prospect of China becoming the largest bullion user reflects the country’s economic ascendance. Per capita gross domestic product has more than doubled since 2000, according to World Bank data. The country is already the world’s top consumer of copper and biggest producer of steel. “Rising prosperity levels among the population coupled with tighter laws governing property speculation are likely to contribute to sustained high demand for gold in China,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note. “Above all, Chinese gold demand should lend key support to the price of gold during the course of the year,” they said.

Gold shipments to the mainland climbed for a third month in March to 62,913 kilograms, the Hong Kong data showed. That compares with 39,668 kilograms in February and 9,166 kilograms in March 2011. China doesn’t publish gold-trade data. Last year, imports from Hong Kong more than tripled to 431,226 kilograms. The purchases through Hong Kong may signal that the mainland is accumulating reserves, London-based brokerage Sharps Pixley Ltd. said in February. The nation last made its reserves known more than two years ago, stating them at 1,054 tons.

With the euro under pressure, the other precious metals also fell. Silver, which is on course for a third consecutive monthly decline, was down 2.0 percent on the day at $29.41 an ounce. The silver price has lost more than 13 percent in the last three months, dragged lower by the decline in the gold price, rising production, near-record inventory levels on the U.S. futures exchange and an uncertain demand outlook.

Options Activity Heating Up In (NASDAQ:ARNA) $ARNA

May 7th, 2012

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA) $ARNA is awaiting its opportunity to readdress the U.S. Federal Food and Drug Administration’s Advisory Committee, as it continues to seek approval for its weight-loss drug Locaserin. The meeting is scheduled for May 10, 2012. Arena’s shares will probably not trade on May 10 and reopen to investors on May 11. This will be the second attempt by Arena to gain the favor of the committee, after it submitted additional results in response to concerns expressed by the FDA, within its previous Complete Response Letter and with respect to the company’s previous New Drug Application. The company is currently in a race with Vivus, Inc. (NASDAQ:VVUS) $VVUS and Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc, (NASDAQ:OREX) $OREX to bring the first weight-loss drug to market in over a decade.

It is just as widely known that the FDA is under somewhat self-inflicted pressure to approve such a drug, especially since FDA Commissioner Margaret Hamburg’s speech, last month, in which she affirmed that obesity is a disease rather than just a voluntary condition and the public is insisting on treatment:

“Patients are urgently waiting for new therapies—and often not getting them. And we are not adequately addressing burgeoning public health needs. Disease conditions such as obesity and Alzheimer’s, are taking a growing toll, profoundly affecting American families, and measurably adding to our health care costs and our national debt.”

Locaserin, received a thumbs down from a previous FDA Advisory Committee, that in 2010 expressed four concerns that were required to be addressed by Arena, before an approval for the drug, by the committee, could be considered. The committee’s rejection was confirmed by the FDA’s Complete Response Letter, which followed.  Within its rejection, the FDA cited carcinogenicity issues, which included diagnostic uncertainty in the classification of masses in female rats (strange tumors which were found in mammary tissue in animal studies), unresolved exposure-response relationships for Lorcaserin-emergent mammary adenocarcinoma (ambiguity over the mechanism of carcinogenicity), and an unidentified mode of action and unclear safety margin for Lorcaserin-emergent brain astrocytoma. The complete response letter also stated specifically that the FDA wanted to see a much more detailed explanation of the tumors that arose in the rats, and a better way of understanding Lorcaserin’s distribution to the central nervous system to better evaluate the risk of astrocytoma exposure margins in humans.

In response to the rejection, Arena seems to have diligently worked to alleviate the FDA’s concerns. Arena accumulated more data to prove that Lorcaserin’s benefits outweigh the risks in a new study and a month after the initial FDA rejection, the company released its BLOOM-DM trial results, which showed that after one year of treatment, 37.5% of patients taking Lorcaserin lost at least 5% of their body weight, which meets the FDA criteria for approval of a weight-loss drug. Even more encouraging was that over 16% of Lorcaserin patients lost over 10% of their body weight.

With respect to the concern of mammary masses in female rats, in August of 2011, Arena announced results from a Pathology Working Group, consisting of five pathologists contracted by Arena, with the approval of the FDA. The group was convened to re-adjudicate the female rat mammary tumor diagnoses from the two-year rat carcinogenicity study of Lorcaserin in question. Following a review of the relevant tissue samples, the group reported that benign tumors were more prevalent in the samples than malignant tumors, and that there was no significant cancer risk to humans, as a result of taking Locaserin.

The Pathology Working Group’s findings may also have resolved the concern the FDA had with unresolved exposure-response relationships for Lorcaserin-emergent mammary adenocarcinoma, since it might now be determined that mammary cancer is no longer a concern for those taking Locaserin.

Finally, and with respect to the FDA’s need for clarity of a safety margin for Lorcaserin-emergent brain astrocytoma, Arena announced on August 2, 2011, that a subsequent clinical study that measured Lorcaserin concentrations in human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma, seemed to show that humans concentrate Locaserin within the brain at very low levels. The results of this study, could alleviate the FDA’s concerns that the drug concentrated in the brain of male rats at higher levels. In other words it may be cancerous.

Also keep in mind what happened in 2010 was partly due to FDA not having a toxicologist on the panel.

Following outrage by the public, the FDA wrote a letter expressing regret:

“In hindsight, FDA regrets that no toxicologist participated in the meeting.”

Heavily weighted in Arena’s favor, is that the FDA didn’t reference a possibility of heart-valve damage as a result of Locaserin use, a concern they expressed in the Complete Response Letters issued regarding Vivus’ Qnexa and Orexigene’s Contrave. Arena has conducted extensive heart safety testing, which presumably showed that there was no increase in heart valve risk with Lorcaserin.

Arena may get European approval later in 2012. They have a manufacturing facility at the heart of Europe, in the western part of Switzerland. The facility will provide Lorcaserin supply worldwide.

At the end of the day, I’m pretty sure both drugs will be approved. The FDA delayed Qnexa to give Lorcaserin, the safer of the two, a head start. Lorcaserin already has a manufacturer, Eisai pharmaceutical, ready to mass produce the drug. This will give the patients a chance to try out Lorcaserin for about 6 months since Qnexa will be approved with a REM study attached. Ultimately, Locaserin may not receive final FDA approval for reasons that we don’t understand at this time, but we think that it is likely that the panel will take the burden of making that decision off its own shoulders.

Taking a look at the stock from a technical analysis perspective.

Furthermore, it is rational to conclude given a short interest of over 42 million shares, the so-called “bears” are predicting approval because if they were truly bears they would hope for the stock to rise before the AdComm and short into that rally. Instead they seem to be trying to keep the price down, perhaps as a way of controlling what in my opinion is inevitable: a strong rally in the share price following AdComm’s strong vote of confidence. There are currently 182 million shares outstanding which represents a 23% short float. This could potentionally be a short squeeze candidate.

Options Read below is as close of May 7th, 2012. Today’s trading volume for May Strikes were favored on the Put side 2:1 or a read of .56 Call/Put ratio. Traders were buying protection for a potential downside. On the wider horizon look, the May options expire May 18th. Currently there is an upside favor as traders an upside, above today’s closing price of $2.72. The stock has been at an even battleground for the past 2 weeks in the 2.25-2.75 area.

If you are a risk take, in my opinion the call side looks favored here especially in the highlighted green area $5 strike with 35,652 open contracts at .31. The $3, $3.50, and $4 strike are all seeing an average 20k in open interest.

Th bear argument would be for the obvious reasons highlighted in “red” The 1.50 and 2 strikes are showing a 25k open interest with a higher reading on volatility which may translate to higher return.

Note: $2.00 Strike Put is reading an implied Volatility at 572

$3.50 Strike Call is reading an implied Volatility at 496

$5.00 Strike Call is reading an implied Volatility at 411

If you’d like to spread you risk around, you may be able to it with a “Call/put straddle”  Selling the .61 $2 Put and buying the 3.50 call costing you about .12 a contract or $120 at risk per contract. Your margin of risk is lessened but risk remains. At the time of news you would sell the loser and keep the winner.

France & Greek Voters Force Regime Change

May 7th, 2012

As predicted the beginning of last week, markets were building in a regime change for France and Greece. Price action in World markets were not favoring this, point being markets fell for the week of April 30th. The voters showed they want to dictate that Germany doesn’t force Austerity upon it’s citizens. Voters in Greece and France made it clear, they will renegotiate a favorable deal with Germany. In France left-wing Francois Hollande has swept to power beating Nicolas Sarkozy in a win that was far more narrow than the polls had suggested. In Greece the ruling coalition saw its support fall sharply and head to hard left and hard right parties who oppose the conditions imposed upon the country by its recent EU/IMF bailout. The conservative New Democracy and Socialist PASOK, who have dominated Greek politics for decades, won less than 40 percent of the total vote combined according to exit polls. This would mean they cannot form another coalition and it will be very difficult for either party to do business with the two big winners of the election.

The Left coalition, which could claim second place in the poll and beat the socialist PASOK party into third place, was the big winner of the vote and will be unwilling to form a government that does not attempt to renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout with the EU and IMF.

The backlash has started. Confronted with falling governments, violent protests, record unemployment and a double-dip recession, EU leaders are beginning to discuss growth-focused solutions to the region’s economic problems. Even Germany has made noises recently about supporting growth. So has the lesson been learned? It’s hard to tell. There has been no suggestion that austerity should be relaxed, only that some efforts to boost growth be used to balance the screw tightening. Time will tell whether Socialist French President-elect François Hollande can put in place his growth-oriented policies without triggering a market attack on French government bonds or whether the Greek political process can find a way to keep the country in the euro without condemning its citizens to penury for decades.

The risk of Greece exiting the euro zone have risen to as much as 75 percent, according to economists at Citi. Describing such an outcome as a “Grexit,”  however, that the chances of a broad-based break-up of the euro zone remain very low. With the chances of the formation of a unity or coalition government looking remote, it appears likely that Greek voters will be asked to vote again, something that could see Greece fail to meet the terms of its recent bailout by the so-called “troika” of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. Without a functioning government, it seems highly unlikely that Greece would be in a position to present the Troika with plans for additional budget savings worth 7 percent of GDP by the end of June.

The Troika is likely to delay the disbursement of the next tranche of the program. Note that for the second quarter of 2012, disbursements of 31.3 billion euros ($40.7 billion) from the bailout program are scheduled. If Greece does not make progress, in a second step, the Troika is likely to stop the program. If that happens, the Greek sovereign and its banking sector would run out of funding.”As a result, Greece would be forced to leave the euro area.

World Markets Skittish -S&P Losing Momentum

May 4th, 2012

With the FaceBook euphoria building with an IPO set for the 18th of this month, markets aren’t playing nice. With European regime change in France and Greece imminent, and potentially UK, investors have been skittish. With today’s decline as of 10 AM, DJIA off 110 points and the S&P off 14. Other analysts also note China and Australia hard landing as governments tighten fiscal stimulus. Voters are increasingly favoring more stimulus than austerity for the obvious reasons. So what are investors to do? I’d suggest let the market noise play itself out. If you can’t stomach the volatility, remain on the sidelines. The markets are primed for a further drop. Very tough to say where the markets are heading. Market leaders such as Apple $AAPL as @Ace52weekhigh had shared with his readers is falling apart. Even Priceline $PCLN is showing cracks. Point being, markets have lost their mojo. This is a temporary adjustment as I do see the markets will head higher to 1450 in the S&P $SPX $SPY.

Hear are my targets to look for. As you will notice, below 2nd leg downward has commenced. Protect yourself with insurance $VXX.

Target 1: Support 137.74 If fails then~>

Target 2: Support 136.00 If fails then~>

Target 3:  Support 1360.00 If fails then~>

Target 4:  Absolute Support 130.00 If fails then~>we are deep trouble.


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