Archive for February, 2010

February Etches out a Gain for The Month!!

Friday, February 26th, 2010

The month has turned out to be a pretty good one for investors despite rising concerns about sovereign debt and the pace of the global economic recovery. Those fears subsided Friday, helped along by further wrangling over Greece’s fate and some sour notes among a generally favorable batch of economic data in the U.S. Meanwhile, Greece pushed back plans to sell a minimum $2 billion in global bonds in the U.S. and Asia, a finance ministry spokeswoman said.

The market ends February with a 2.7% gain. That would be its best monthly performance since a 6.5% jump in November, helped by early moves on Wall Street to get year-end buying done early.

Investors welcomed a report from the Commerce Department saying that that America’s GDP grew at a 5.9% annual rate in 2009′s fourth period, the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2003. A month ago, the department estimated that GDP rose by an annual 5.7% in the fourth quarter.

Elsewhere, the Chicago Business Barometer, formerly known as the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, rose for a fifth consecutive month to its highest level since April 2005, beating analysts’ expectations. The rise indicates that the pace of expansion among U.S. companies accelerated in February, including increases in prices paid for goods and services that hint at emerging inflationary pressures.

Weighing on sentiment, sales of existing homes in the U.S. plunged for the second straight month in January by 7.2% to a 5.05 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said.

ACE

Futures Point to Flat opening But for How Long?

Friday, February 26th, 2010

Indices are headed to a modest opening as the Northeast is battling a Nor’Easter. Expect volume to be very light which is generally the trend for Friday. AIG reported an $8.9 billion quarterly loss and said it is looking to modify its plan to repay bailout money. AIG shares fell 5.6 percent in premarket trading, exceeding analyst’s estimates as a one time write off as it works to lower the Federal Lending Facility. They have decided to keep the derivatives program and not auction it. To me it signals their derivatives exposure is exceedingly risky which will bring down any company who attempts to purchase the business. To mask the loss and from further destroying the economy, why not have it backed by the government and the taxpayers. Ironically that is their plan. 

The week has been filled with a dismal series of reports on housing, unemployment, consumer confidence and bank lending, raising fears in some quarters that the threat of a double-dip recession continues to loom. The latest revision of fourth quarter GDP will be the most-watched indicator in the US.  Economists expect the fourth quarter annual growth rate to be revised to 5.9 percent from the prior 5.7 percent.

At 9:45 am New York time, the Chicago Purchasing Managers index for January will be out. Consensus forecasts call for a reading of 60.5, slightly lower than the January reading of 61.5. At 9:55 am, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released, with economists looking for a February reading of 73.7, identical to the prior reading. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index did come in well below expectations earlier this week. The National Association of Realtors issues January existing home sales figures at 10 am, with a 0.9 percent rise expected. In December, existing home sales jumped 16.7 percent.

On Thursday, the major US averages finished the day considerably off their lows, with the Dow trimming a 188-point deficit down to 53 by the close.

Else where, some global economic news offered cheer, as the U.K. revised higher its fourth-quarter GDP view to 0.3% growth from 0.1% growth, while India reported slower-than-expected 6% growth but announced deficit-cutting measures that lifted stocks locally.

Economists and analyst signal a double dip with concerns of political uncertainty decisions with Health Care, Financial Reform Regulation, Europe debt woes, and the nagging ever so high U.S. deficit. That explains the market’s sideways movement. I anticipate this quite a bit, until Greece is given a bailout package. Investors are confused and the bears are slowly building a position to the downside. Yet I don’t see a double dip occurring just yet, but I do anticipate one but not caused by within or our own policies but rather from austerity measures from overseas. We live in a world that’s global and financially tied to one another’s economy. What effects a G-8 member affects all. It’s a term called Globalization.

Alert of the Day is Las Vegas SandsLVS - ($16.20) Short candidate – Option Activity Alert: Bears Bombard Las Vegas Sands Corp. Traders are taking advantage of the stock’s recent weakness. Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) garnered a hefty dose of put volume on Wednesday, with activity ramping up to 1.46 times the usual level. In yesterday’s trading, puts continue to dominate the option pits for LVS. About 23,000 of these pessimistically oriented options have crossed the tape so far, easily outstripping the equity’s expected put volume of roughly 10,000 contracts. Most notably, more than 4,900 puts have traded on the stock’s April 15 put (.78), which is currently home to open interest of just 664 contracts. In other words, the bulk of today’s volume at this narrowly out-of-the-money strike consists of newly opened positions.

Meanwhile, in the front-month series, peak put open interest of 24,845 contracts is located at the deeper out-of-the-money March 14 strike. Not far behind are the March 16 put, with 17,813 contracts outstanding, and the March 15 put (.38), with 16,370 contracts in residence. With LVS trading just shy of $16.20 at last check, put speculators are concentrating their efforts at near-the-money strikes. Elsewhere on Wall Street, short interest represents a lofty 15.2% of LVS’ float, following a 1.3% increase during the most recent reporting period. Taken in context with the rising buy-to-open put volume, it would seem that most investors are banking on a notable pullback from LVS during the coming weeks!

ACE

Dow Pares Loss to 0.5%; Palm Falls

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

U.S. stock indexes recouped the bulk of their losses on Thursday to finish modestly lower as Greece’s debt andan unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims furthered worries about the economy. Bears took the reins bright and early this morning, as an unexpected surge in jobless claims.  Meanwhile, both Standard & Poor’s andMoody’s have now warned that Greece’s long-term credit ratings are in danger of being slashed, reigniting concerns about the country’s fiscal health. As if that weren’t enough uncertainty to sendthe broad-market indexes reeling, traders also took note of a brewing partisan battle on Capitol Hill, with Democrats and Republicans slugging it out at a six-hour health care summit. Stocks attempted to bounce back in afternoon trading, but succeeded only in paring the worst of their losses. The DJIA was down as mush as 190 points but managed to finish on a much slimmer deficit of 53.1 points, or 0.5%.

The last of the week’s Treasury auctions, for 7-year notes, was met with decent demand: The high yield was 3.078 percent and the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.98 percent. 

Orders for durable goods, big-ticket items such as cars and refrigerators, fell 0.6 percent in January; economists had been expecting a 1-percent increase. And mortgage rates ticked higher this week: The average on the 30-year fixed rose to 5.05 percent from 4.93 percent last week.

There was more buzz about Greece today: Ratings agencies indicated they may downgrade Greece’s debt, raising concerns about potential defaults and the cost of a bailout. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank will investigate traders betting against Greece with credit-default swaps.

“We are looking into a number of questions related to Goldman Sachs and other companies in their derivatives arrangements with Greece,”Bernanke said in response to a question from Sen. Christopher Dodd.

Ironically, these kinds of trades have a striking resembalnce that nearly brought down AIG. Hmm makes you wonder?

UPDATE:

PALM: Did exactly what we were anticipating making it our biggest short position and bet to the downside. I truly believe they lag behind the Iphone and the newly introduced Google phone, which I must add is a  phenomenal piece of technology. It dropped as low as $6.30 to finish the day at $6.50  down almost 20% making a total profit of 28%for the week. Read my initial alert here. But wait we’re not done. The option which I had suggested to jump in, has garnished a whopping 210% gain. Not bad for 3 days of work. Again, shorts just ticked up a bit more to a level of 74 million. We have a slight more downside to go, but feel free to take some profits off the table.

DDR: Keeps on trucking!!! Today it ties it’s 52 week high of 10.66 to finish the day at $10.63 Up 6% for the week and again we’ve not finished. Our options which I had also mentioned here, to jump on finished at .75 for a gain 87.5%

SRZ: I regret to inform you we must jump ship. After a trading freeze this morning and a notice ,subsequent to their quarter end reporting, they were unable to retrieve financing with respect to the current default. This is a short candidate. Never give your hopes up as one lost provides another opportunity.

Still to Come:

FRIDAY: 2nd read on Q4 GDP; consumer sentiment; existing-home sales; Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks; Madoff hearing; Earnings from Berkshire Hathaway
ACE

Markets at it Again – Set to Open Lower.

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

U.S. stock futures weakened Thursday as markets took a cautious tone ahead of the second day of testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the release of economic data. The second day of Bernanke testimony will draw attention, as will weekly jobless claims and durable-goods-orders data for January due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

Two notable economic reports are out at 8:30 am New York time this morning: January durable goods orders, and the Labor Department’s weekly read on initial jobless claims. Economists are looking for a 1.5 percent increase in durable goods orders following a 1.0 percent increase in December, and a drop in jobless claims to 463,000 from 470,000 last week. The EIA will also be out with the weekly natural gas inventory report at 10:30 am.

The Treasury concludes $118 billion in note auctions by selling $32 billion in 7-year notes, with results available shortly after 1 pm.

S&P 500 futures fell 4.9 points to 1,098.70 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 9.25 points to 1,805.70. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 33 points.

Asian markets generally slipped, with the Nikkei 225 down 1% in Tokyo and the Hang down 0.3% in Hong Kong.Oil futures were below $80 a barrel and gold was below $1,100 an ounce

Meanwhile, Greece was still in the spotlight as Standard & Poor’s during Wednesday’s session, threatened the nation was on the verge of junk status within a month, while Moody’s said it would keep the rating unchanged if promised spending cuts by the government are enacted. The Greek jitters sent investors away from the euro (CUR_EURUSD 1.35, -0.01, -0.34%) , which fell to the low $1.35 area, and to government bonds, which rose in both the U.S. and Germany. The warnings from the credit agencies highlight the lack of an explicit E.U. backstop facility for Greece if market pressures intensify within the current impossibly difficult time-frame for the Greek government.

Markets are now trending sideways. Trading will be very difficult this year as last year’s “Easy Money” dissipates. The tug of war continues -Up one day down another. Here at Wall Street Grand we’ll find oppurtunities in this difficult market!

ACE

Bernanke to the Rescue – the Market Savior!!

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke today, as the central banker began a two-day venture on Capitol Hill. Issuing his semi-annual assessment of the economy, the Fed chief didn’t disappoint, assuring Congress that last week’s move to boost the rate on emergency loans to banks doesn’t necessarily indicate more rate hikes in the near future. As a result, the Street let out a collective sigh of relief, sending stocks soaring in late-morning activity. Though the government’s report that new-home sales unexpectedly fell to a record low in January helped to limit the bulls, the major market indexes settled in the positive territory nonetheless, halting a two-day downturn. The Dow finished in the black for a 91 point gain.

The Federal Reserve chairman’s poise during his testimony on Capitol Hill seems to have counterbalanced a gloom fest on Wall Street. I must praise the Fed chief’s insistence that interest rates will be kept low in order to stimulate the economy. That in turn should create much-needed jobs.

Excerpts from the meeting this morning:

“The country has lost 8.4 million jobs in a little more than two years in the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. Job losses were abating, but also acknowledged the recession’s toll on American workers. Notwithstanding the positive signs, the job market remains quite weak, Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee. The U.S. central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee was prepared to support the economy with extraordinary stimulus for some time. The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions—including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations—are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period, echoing the Fed’s most recent policy statement in late January. Under current projections, we have a deficit and a debt that will continue to grow. We do not believe the U.S. credit rating would be downgraded. However, that the time would come for tighter policy and he argued the Fed possesses a broad array of tools to remove such accommodation when the time is right. Among the Fed’s options, are reserve-draining transactions with financial institutions. One such program, a “term deposit facility” that would give banks the incentive to park their money at the central bank”

As this meeting progressed, another headline ignited the bull run stating Senate approves $15 Billion Job Package It includes tax breaks and highway spending that aims to bring down the country’s stubbornly high unemployment rate. By a vote of 70 to 28, the Senate approved the bill and sent it on to the House, which could approve the measure quickly for President Barack Obama to sign into law. The legislation includes a $13 billion payroll tax break for businesses that hire unemployed workers, along with subsidies for state and local construction bonds. The bill would also extend highway and mass transit programs through the end of the year and pump $20 billion into them in time for the construction season. Economists say the tax breaks could create perhaps 250,000 jobs. The bill’s costs are offset by a crackdown on offshore tax shelters. It also included 13 Republicans in favor of the Bill. The Jobs Bill to some believe that money should have been used to pay the deficit.

I still believe the market still has a lot sifting to do especially when earnings top out and consumers continue to tighten their belts. Consumers is what drove the economy the last 40 years. It’s not like we’re manufacturing or producing  anything here in the States anymore.

Other news:My morning announcement of COIN did not pan out as I had hoped and may have been a bit premature ahead of Converted Organics Inc. announcement of voluntarily removing its Unit Ticker COINU off of the NASDAQ (not our COIN ticker). Story can be found here We do apologize but strongly believe it certainly won’t retest the all time low. If we fall below the .85 level all bets are off. I hope you can stomach the volatility as I mentioned that this a risky play with a huge reward. Just an FYI the de-listing notice is common as SIRI is too on the list when the share price is below a $1.00 per share. It must remain above a $1.00 for an extended period to meet SEC’s requirement. Tomorrow looks on course for extending to the downside. Remember to place your stop loss at .85. In the mean time sit tight. It may take a few weeks to pop while they transfer COINU (Unit shares) to the common share COIN.

DDR (10.38) continues to show tremendous support and is on track of breaking the 52 week high of 10.66 very soon!!! FYI March $10 call strike now at .65

ACE

Speculative Play of the Week – COIN!!!

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

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Dow Sheds 101 Pts as Consumer Confidence Drops!

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

A dismal report on consumer confidence tripped up stocks Tuesday, sending the market to a second straight loss. Stocks surrendered early gains in late-morning trading today, after data showed a steeper-than-expected drop in consumer confidence. The Conference Board reported its gauge of consumer confidence backpedaled to 46 in February from 56.5 in January. Economists had expected a more moderate monthly decline to 54.8. A separate report showed home prices declined in December.

The CBOE volatility index (VIX) – otherwise known as the market’s “fear barometer” – soared 7%, with the major market indexes settling south of break even for the second straight session.

This came after a report out of Germany showed business morale hinted at a contraction for the first quarter and overshadowed some encouraging earnings reports. Offering little comfort was a mediocre two-year auction: The high yield was 0.895 percent and the bid-to-cover ratio was 3.33. Stocks had been rising for the past four sessions, logging two straight weekly gains. Today’s drop in confidence and the market prompted speculation that this may be the beginning of a modest correction.

Any hint of weakness in consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, is particularly troublesome to investors at a time when a recovery is just taking shape. Investors are treading very cautiously here following last week’s 4-day winning streak in the Dow. I think we could test the 10,000 level on the Dow one more time, but hopefully it will be off to the races from there. The indices remain very cautious and has lost sense of direction.

I believe people out there still fear of losing their jobs especially with all this media depicting doom. Secondly, this just out, 11.8 million homeowners are underwater. There are several homeowners who have yet to be foreclosed on because of the Home Affordable Mortgage Program also known as HAMP. I expect once HAMP expires and rates reset to the upside you’ll see an influx of foreclosures. Too much fear is out there. Expect the market to tread water this week.

On a brighter note let’s review what Wallstreetgrand had offered. We’ve offered three picks this week. All have been winners from my initial announcement since Monday. I still see continued uptrend for DDR and SRZ and also see continued downtrend in PALM. DO NOT FEAR when market falls. There’s always opportunity not only to the upside but on the downside also, which reaps even larger rewards!!!

DDR - Initial alert at $10 and March call $10 strike @ .40 – Now $10.20 Option price at  @.50 We’re more interested in the option as I expect to hit .75 for a 87.5% gain. Expect to break the new 52 week high!

SRZ – Initial alert at $4.00 - Now $4.31 for a gain of 7.75% and counting!!!

PALM – Initial alert $9.11 & March Put $9.00 strike @ .82- Perfect short candidate as I indicated. It broke the $9 level and never looked back since. 10% gain on the short and a 56% gain on the option now trading @$1.28. Expect more to come tomorrow!!! This will be a fun ride down until shorts are squeezed to the upside, currently 73 million + shorts

Be prepared for my next speculative play first thing in the morning. Check back in prior to open at Wall Street Grand’s Blog

ACE

PALM shares set to Bounce or Crash Further?

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Put players have continued to pummel smartphone maker Palm, Inc. PALM yesterday, with intraday volume almost doubling the norm. Shortly after midday, the equity has already seen roughly 13,000 puts change hands, surpassing its expected daily volume of fewer than 7,200 contracts.

The at-the-money March 9 strike has taken the brunt of the beating, with about 7,250 puts exchanged. So far, 80% of the newly front-month puts have traded closer to the ask price, and implied volatility has already jumped more than 8%, pointing to a healthy amount of buyer-initiated activity. By purchasing the March 9 put to open, the buyer is betting the shares of PALM finish beneath the $9 level by options expiration on Friday, March 19.

The preference for pessimistic positions reflects the sentiment among short-term options speculators. This reading not only implies that puts outnumber calls among options slated to expire within three months, but also tells us that near-term traders have been more skeptically skewed toward PALM.

In addition, short interest on the equity has also more than doubled since June 2009, advancing roughly 17.5% during just the past month. Now, almost 73.4 million PALM shares are dedicated to short interest. In fact, at the stock’s average daily trading volume, it would take almost six and a half sessions for all of these bearish bets to unwind. The stock has surrendered roughly 30% since grazing the $13.40 level in mid-January, guided into the red by unrelenting resistance at its 18-day moving average.

Technicals is testing a support in the $9 neighborhood. This region played the part of resistance from early 2007 into March 2009, and could act as a technical backstop for the descending stock. Should PALM rebound off the $9 level and, ultimately, a breach off its 18-day moving average IT could point to an appealing entry price for potential buyers still harboring bullish hopes for the smartphone concern.

My analysis: long term bearish sentiment but possible near term short squeeze. We may see a possible bounce after $8.00 If it breaks below this level all support is broken and will fall further to the $6.00 level. Expect to see a short covering if this mark is reached. This will be a short term quick gain (+10%) at the expense of the shorts!!! Keep this on your radar.

ACE

New Credit Card rules, Obama Healthcare push Renewed, 30 YR TIP Auction

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Last week was the largest weekly gain for the indices since November of 2009. On Friday, however, I mentioned that markets would play tug of war to make it a very difficult trading session. There were several arguments both from the bulls and bears, with the bears initially taking the first punch at opening, -40 for the DOW. The bulls however pulled the DOW back into positive territory,marginally, by end of the day. 

Monday, February 21 was the same story, constant pull and tug. The bears won this fight this evening. There were culmination of negative news that contributed the down turn. Stocks hovered around break even for most of the session today, as a down day among energy and health care issues helped to neutralize gains in the financial sector.

New Credit Card rules, thanks to a long-awaited law took affect today. It’s reported that the new law would shave anywhere from 40-50% of credit card revenue. The caveat`, banks were permitted 9 months to adjust. There have been rumors that some consumers have experienced significant rate hikes from banks to compensate that lost revenue. The new law is in theory, delays the inevitable for consumers to reign in their debt. It has come a time, consumers are forced to decrease their credit limit and pay off debt before inflation rears its head.

In the pharma world, Obama’s early morning announcement came while pharmaceutical issues struggled in the wake of the White House’s new $950 billion health careproposal. He’s proposed to cap health care costs, but not a market levels, which scared investors once again in the pharma spectrum. In my opinion, with the first generation of baby boomers set to retire, this is the beginning of money generating cash cow for the next 10-15 years. Once hurdles have been met and the dust settles around Obama’s health care agenda, then investors will pour back into the pharma markets. Right now there’s too much uncertainty, similar to Europe’s plan bailing out Greece (when and how?) Time will tell.  The debate continues.

Lastly longer-dated U.S. Treasuries fell Monday as relatively soft demand in an auction of 30-year inflation-protected bonds added to uncertainty over the market’s ability to absorb record new issuance this week. The Treasury auctioned $8 billion of 30-year TIPS at a high yield of 2.229 percent and a bid to cover ratio which measures the amount the issue was oversubscribed of 2.45. The 30-year Treasury inflation-protected securities sale marked a bit of a lackluster start to this week’s round of $126 billion of U.S. government debt issuance. There was a weak reception for long-dated inflation protection. The Treasury Department last issued 30-year TIPS in October 2001. It will sell $44 billion of two-year notes Tuesday, $42 billion of five-year notes Wednesday and $32 billion of seven-year notes Thursday.

For this weeks Economic Calendar click here

Also this week, chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will speak Wednesday and Thursday before parliamentary committees to discuss monetary policy in general and the increase in the discount rate in particular. The market still has much to understand about the rate increase and it seems we are not alone.

DDR – Gearing up for a POP!!!

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

As I’m writing this, I’m noticing heavy options interest (March $10 @.40) trading 60% (700 in volume today) of its open interest which suggests something is brewing behind the wires. Developers Diversified Inc. (DDR) is currently trading at $10. Momentum swing looks to spike upward as I have noticed from a 10 million stock purchase by an independent, which shows investor confidence. Nonetheless the company has been upgraded by RBC Capital Markets. Something is developing quick in the near term. All technicals point to a 100% buy.

Other notables to look out for are SRZ currently at $4.00

ACE