Archive for May, 2010

Worst May Market Performance Since 1962

Friday, May 28th, 2010

The DJIA is on pace to close out its biggest monthly drop since February 2009, before the bull-market run started, as well as its biggest May point drop in its history and the measure’s worst percentage performance since 1962. The slide snaps a string of three straight monthly gains. The month, which included the flash crash in its first week, has been particularly volatile.

Among Dow’s worst performers for the month, Microsoft is coming into Friday’s session down 15% for the month of May, while American Express has tumbled 13% and Cisco Systems slipped 12%. 

DJIA futures were recently up 5 at 10240 as S&Poor’s futures were up 2 points at 1103 and Nasdaq futures were up 5 points at 1869. Prior to the data, Dow futures had been up about 33 points, while S&P futures were up 5 points and Nasdaq futures were up 10 points. Changes in stock futures do not always accurately predict early market moves after the open.

Consumer spending, a key growth engine for the economy, was unchanged last month after rising by 0.6% in March, the Commerce Department said in a report Friday. Incomes rose 0.4%, helped by a gradual turnaround in the jobs market and low inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting income to rise by 0.4% and spending to rise by 0.1%.

The core price index for personal consumption expenditures, which excludes food and energy prices because of their volatility, rose 0.1% in April. On a year-over-year basis, that figure stood at 1.2%. The overall PCE price index, which includes food and energy prices, was flat last month and was up 2.0% on a year-over-year basis. The price gauge is expected to give the Federal Reserve continued reason to keep rates near zero to support the recovery and bring unemployment down.

Acquisitions and Stock Purchases

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest energy producer, agreed to buy most of closely-held East Resources Inc. for $4.7 billion in cash, expanding its holdings of U.S. shale gas deposits.  As part of the deal, Shell will obtain new positions in “high potential” U.S. shale gas acreage, in the Marcellus and Eagle Ford plays. Shell is catching up with Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc in snapping up unconventional gas reserves in anticipation prices for the cleaner-burning fuel will recover as governments curb carbon dioxide emissions. The Marcellus Shale, which stretches into New York, may hold 262 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, making it the biggest known deposit of the heating and power-plant fuel, the U.S. Energy Department estimates. “They’ve seen others take material positions in U.S. gas, and this is one way they can also play a part in that business,” said Jason Kenney, head of oil and gas research at ING Commercial Banking in Edinburgh. The acquisition is the second-biggest oil and gas deal this year, after BP’s acquisition of deepwater assets from Devon Energy Corp. for $7 billion in March, according to Bloomberg data. Shell said it was buying subsidiaries that own most of East Resources from the company itself, as well as KKR & Co. and its advisors Jefferies & Co.

Icahn yesterday disclosed a 6.86% stake in Mentor Graphics (MENT), and said he intends to seek discussions with the company’s board on ways to increase shareholder value. MENT this morning is up 67 cents, or 7.4%, to $9.72.

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Markets Up Huge On A Relief Rally

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

Markets have been down 12.3% from the highs of April. Markets are now due for a huge rally back upwards. We should continue to move upward as traders placed a firm stop on the S&P at a pivotal 1040 on Tuesday. Yesterday’s movement was questionable and was not a confirmed entry as it erased 120 points. Today’s price movement stayed strong as the day progressed and continued through the close. A correction of more than 10% historically returns a 20% in the markets within 6 months. We are approximatelty at 44.5% retracement which is very healthy for the markets. Momentum is to the upside.

U.S. stocks climbed Thursday, tracking a rebound in the euro as concerns about Europe’s debt crisis ebbed somewhat after China denied reports it would sell euro-bond holdings. The DJIA 10,259, jumped 284.61 points, or 2.9%, to end at 10,258.99, its biggest gain since May 10. The S&P 1,103, rose 35.11, or 3.3, while the Nasdaq 2,278, rose 81.80 points, or 3.7%. The Nasdaq also returned to positive ground for the year.

Speculative Long term Plays

TIE $17.53

SAY $5.29

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Monsanto Continues to Hit New 3 Year Lows

Thursday, May 27th, 2010

Monsanto Company ($53.45),together with its subsidiaries, provides agricultural products for farmers in the United States and internationally. It has two segments, Seeds and Genomics, and Agricultural Productivity. The Seeds and Genomics segment produces corn, soybeans, canola, and cotton seeds, as well as vegetable and fruit seeds, including tomato, pepper, eggplant, melon, cucumber, pumpkin, squash, beans, broccoli, onions, and lettuce. This segment also develops biotechnology traits that assist farmers in controlling insects and weeds, as well as provide genetic material and biotechnology traits to other seed companies. The Agricultural Productivity segment offers glyphosate-based herbicides for agricultural, industrial, ornamental, and turf applications; lawn-and-garden herbicides for residential lawn-and-garden applications; and other herbicides for control of preemergent annual grass and small seeded broadleaf weeds in corn and other crops. The company offers its traits products under Roundup Ready, Bollgard, Bollgard II, YieldGard, YieldGard VT, Roundup Ready 2 Yield, and SmartStax; row crop seeds under DEKALB, Asgrow, Deltapine, and Vistive; vegetable seeds under Seminis and De Ruiter; herbicides under Roundup; and corn and cotton under Harness brand names. It also licenses germplasm and trait technologies to seed companies. The company sells its products through distributors, retailers, dealers, agricultural co-operatives, plant raisers, and agents, as well as directly to farmers. Monsanto Company has a joint venture with Cargill, Inc. to commercialize a proprietary grain processing technology under the name Extrax. It also has a collaboration agreement with BASF in plant biotechnology that focuses on high-yielding crops and crops that are tolerant to adverse conditions. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in St. Louis, Missouri.

It was a Cinderall Story when MON, IPO’d @ $10 in late 2000. The offering grabbed a huge attention from investors in the agriculture arena. The company and stock was doing so well that it ran up to $145 in late June of 2008. The stock and company since then has been hitting new lows after lows and breaking every support along the way. It’s sad to say during this 1 1/2 year market rally MON had managed to lose hand over fist quarter after quarter and never followed the markets upward. Let’s put into perspective the low of March of 2009, MON was worth about $88. Today it’s on the verge of yet hitting another 3 year low to $50 which equates to -43%. Talk about an investment gone bad.

The firm’s products are also subject to extensive regulation. Unfavorable rulings or regulations could prohibit or delay the company’s entrance into new markets and its ability to introduce new products in existing ones. Finally, Monsanto continues to battle public opposition to its transgenic products, especially in Europe. This could prohibit Monsanto from penetrating new markets.

The agricultural industry is facing increased regulatory scrutiny on all fronts. Whether it be the EPA the DOJ or any other government body, there is a chance that unfavorable legal actions could leave Monsanto facing higher costs or do harm to its competitive position. While DuPont’s Pioneer seed business has had some high profile stumbles as of late, this re-energized competitor has been able to gain some ground recently, picking up a few points of share in the U.S. corn seed market in 2009. Negative public perception continues to plague Monsanto. If the public does not want to eat transgenic food, farmers will not buy the seeds.

Financial Overview

Growth: Capturing small amounts of incremental market share and increasing penetration of the firm’s premium seeds should allow Monsanto to continue to compound its top line in the coming years. Profitability: Monsanto has earned a premium on its cost of capital in each of the past three years. We expect that the firm will continue to post returns on invested capital well in excess of its cost of capital for the foreseeable future.

Financial Health:

Monsanto has a healthy balance sheet and harvests bushels of cash. Cash from operations has averaged 24% of sales over the past five years, giving the firm plenty of flexibility to service its financial obligations, invest for growth, and return cash to shareholders. Monsanto currently has $1.2 Billion in cash. Market Cap of 28.73 Billion, $10.3 Billion in Revenue with a 13% Return on Equity.

Monsanto said Thursday it expects 2010 earnings of $2.15 a share to $2.41 a share. Adjusted 2010 earnings are seen at $2.40 to $2.60 a share, the company said. Wall Street analysts expected earnings of $3.09 a share, according to a survey by FactSet Research. The St. Louis company cited lower profits in its Roundup weed killing business, “in the face of fundamental structural changes that have caused upheaval in the glyphosate industry.”
 
Competitors
EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. DD $35.8; Market Cap of 31,78b, The Dow Chemical Company, DOW $26.52; Market Cap of 30.63b
 
Analysis
 
MON still has more room to fall to $32range and be on par with it’s competitors price range. This will follow the 100% retracement point. I’d recommend to steer clear from Monsanto until all head winds are resolved. Overall I truly believe when inflation does rear it’s ugly head this should be added to your portfolio. I’d recommend to maintain a short side of this equity. Place a buy order at the $32 range which should hit in the next 6-9 months.

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Markets Break Down In The Last Hour

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Stocks kicked off the session on a high note today rising to high as 100 Points. The Street cheered a double dose of upbeat economic data from the Commerce Department. First, the government said new-home sales skyrocketed nearly 15% in April, rallying to the highest level in over a year as buyers rushed to capitalize on an expiring tax credit. In addition, new orders for durable goods rose by much more than expected last month, soaring to their highest level in 18 months.

However, as the day went on, the bears battled back in afternoon trading, with some media reports about China’s hesitation to buy more European debt. Against this backdrop, the major market indexes extended their recent pattern of eleventh-hour volatility, with the DJIA breaching key psychological support by the close- 10,000.  The DJIA finished 9,974.45 and gave up a triple-digit lead in the final hour of trading, swallowing a loss of 69.3 points, or 0.7%. The S&P closed 1,067.95 and the Nasdaq 2,195.88. The Nasdaq closed below 2200 for the first time since February.

The Dollar Movement

As a rush to safety from the Euro-investors again rushed into Gold and the US $. The Euro has significantly broken down to 1.22 as some pundits believe the Euro will crash to parity with the US $. I don’t see that happening in the near term but do believe we’ll touch the 1.15 level last seen in 2002. Here’s a US $ chart of the massive upward movement- as a rush to safety.

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Italy Approves A $24 Billion Austerity Measure

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

While some economists may applaud Italy’s proposed 24 billion-euro austerity package for preventing a Greece-level debt crisis, the cutbacks could take a toll on Prime Minister Berlusconi’s already declining popularity.

Italy’s government ministers have approved a plan to cut 24 billion euros ($25.9 billion) from its 2011-2012 budget, a move aimed at shoring up investor confidence and preventing a Greece-style economic decline.

Approved by parliament, the measure would help the government trim its budget deficit from 5.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 2.7 by 2012. European Union regulations require member states to keep budget deficits within 3 percent of GDP, although many countries have broken the rules since the economic and financial crises. Italy’s need for austerity measures is not as extreme as those of Greece, Spain or Portugal. The proposed cuts are thus less harsh than similar actions taken in those countries, but they are still likely to maintain the relative stability of Italian government bonds – at least for now.

Political Risk

Economists are likely to praise Italy for its willingness to cut back spending at a time when it is politically unpopular to do so. Indeed, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has seen a recent drop in his approval rating, which remained high despite the country’s worst economic recession since World War Two.  A poll by the ISPO agency released Monday showed 35 percent of Italians thought the government had performed well, a large drop from 50 percent a year ago.Berlusconi has considerable sway over his country’s media, owning three of Italy’s main commercial television channels and having control over state broadcaster RAI. But his famous communication skills may not be enough to win over Italians, some of whom may be seeing smaller paychecks. 

Berlusconi is to hold a news conference Wednesday with Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti to officially announce the proposal.  The measures include a freeze on public sector wages for three years, a plan to replace only one in every five public sector employees who leave their jobs and deep cuts in city and regional government budgets. Workers who have earned retirement rights would also be forced to work an extra six months, but the average retirement age of around 61 remains unchanged. Other money-saving ideas, such as a 10 percent cut in ministers’ salaries, have been under discussion. The government announced that in addition to reducing spending, it would take greater steps to fight tax evasion.

Fighting Tax Evaders

The finance police have already begun chasing tax evaders. Rome’s crackdown on suspected tax dodgers has unsettled owners of super-yachts considering Italy as a summer destination following the tax police’s seizure of the 63-metre Force Blue owned by tycoon Flavio Briatore. Tax police said Mr Briatore, former boss of the Renault Formula One team and part-owner of London’s Queen’s Park Rangers football club, was suspected of evading €4m in unpaid VAT on the boat and “savings” of €800,000 on fuel. Guardia di Finanza tax police, who intercepted Force Blue off La Spezie last week and forced Mr Briatore’s fashion model wife and infant to leave their temporary home on the vessel, said that three similar cases of super- yacht tax evasion were under investigation.

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DJIA Down 250 Pts.Then Bounces Back Up

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Fears over European banks, tensions between Koreas, and a fear that housing may create a new bottom spurred massive selling in the get go. The Dow dropped more than 250 points after the opening bell and stayed under 10,000 most of the day, then charged back to finish down only 22 when signals from Washington suggested that banks would not be forced to sell their lucrative derivatives units as part of financial reform. The S&P even managed a slight gain. During the session, the broad market gauge had fallen as low as 1,040, its lowest level since late November.

But more turbulent days are likely. The market worries that even austerity measures by European governments will not be enough to fix the problem and fight off a prolonged economic slump in Europe, or even another global recession. It seems like the Europeans are playing ‘tag, you’re it’. First it was Greece, and now it’s maybe Spain, Portugal or Italy. There has to be someone next. Britain’s Queen Elizabeth opened Parliament with a warning of hard times, saying in a speech on behalf of Britain’s new government that there would be budget cuts because “the first priority is to reduce the deficit and restore economic growth.” Other European countries are imposing budget cuts as well, trying to control their debt. Investors are concerned that these steps will stifle economic growth, and that the growth of other countries, including the U.S., will inevitably be stunted. Tuesday’s action had Italian, Portuguese and Irish stocks markets joining Spain and Greece in bear-market territory, down 20% and more from April highs. Worries about the banking industry in Europe could be seen in the Libor rate, with the three-month U.S. dollar London interbank offered rate hitting its highest level since July of last year.

The DJIA sank to 9,774.48, its lowest reading this year, and for much of the day threatened to set a new closing low for the year. The average is down more than 10 percent in just the past month. I was stunned the way markets recovered drastically. Volatility remains at historic highs but seems to be tickering just slightly. Today a Black Spinning Top was formed. This represents complete indecision between the bulls and the bears. If a Black Spinning Top is observed after a long decline or a long black candlestick, this implies weakness among the bears and it is a warning about a potential change or interruption in trend. Like most other single candlestick patterns, the Black Spinning Top has low reliability. It reflects only one day’s trading and can be interpreted both as a continuation and a reversal pattern. This pattern must be used with other candlesticks for a better and healthier confirmation of a trend.

It’s too early to tell if we’re in a reversal trend. We’ll have an up day tomorrow, but I still urge investors to tread with caution. There’s still too many unknown variables in the markets.

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PIIGS Officially In Bear Market Territory-Double Dip

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

Italian, Portuguese and Irish stock markets joined Spain and Greece in bear market territory Tuesday, as markets across the Continent suffered through another heavy wave of selling pressure. Stocks across the so-called PIIGS region, an unloved acronym that refers to the five countries that makeup the troubled second tier of euro-area members are down more than 20% from highs reached in April, with the exception of Greece, which hit its bear market earlier. Tuesday’s trigger for selling came through worries over Spanish banks and Korean tensions. But the declines more broadly are reflective of the worries that go beyond Spain and Greece. Portugal in particular has been a focus of bond markets on worries the slow-growing economy — it had its first year-on-year period of expansion in six quarters during the first quarter of 2010 will make it difficult for the country to meet debt obligations. Ireland in fact in 2009 had a worse government deficit-to-GDP ratio of 14.3% than even Greece, though Dublin’s earlier-adopted austerity measures have bought it a modicum of breathing room. Italy is due on Tuesday to announce a plan to cut its 2011 budget deficit by around 13 billion euros.

Here in the states, U.S. stock futures point to second day of selling and risk of falling way below 10,000; house price gauges, consumer confidence data on tap. Futures on the DJIA dropped 219 points to 9,824, indicating the blue chip index is at risk of closing below the 10,000 mark for the first time since Feb. 8. S&P futures fell 28 points to 1,043.00.

The three-month dollar LIBOR inter-bank lending rate hit 0.5% for the first time since July in a sign of the stresses in markets though it’s still well below the 4.82% reached at the peak of the credit crunch in October 2008. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell 9 basis points to 3.11%, indicating strong demand for safe-haven bonds.

Tensions in Korea’s sent stocks and the won tumbled Tuesday after a group said Kim Jong-il ordered the North Korean military to be ready for combat. The Nikkei 225 dropped 3.1% in Tokyo and the Kospi lost 2.75% in Seoul.

I urge all followers to take heed of what was written and warned earlier in the month. I truly believe we’re in multiple series of a crisis as opposed to a single cause. (BP oil spill, PIIGS austerity measures, Thai protesters, Korean threats of retaliation, US financial reforms, Icelands volcano eruption, Greek riots, Jamaica Drug Pin, Arizona’s war against immigrants, should I keep going) Take extreme caution and only invest in the inverse related ETF’s I had offered last week. They will be up huge!!! Take advantage of the volatile markets as the VIX- gauge of fear is at historic levels of 2007 during the ’Great Recession” Don’t let fear and emotions take the best of you. I’m guiding our readers and our loyal followers towards to a greater “Wealth Preservation” level. Fund owners will tell you to keep investing on the way down but don’t advise on the true money management of wealth preservation. A true money manager would advise when the going is tough. He/she should allocate your funds to a risk averse fund (i.e..bonds, treasuries, and inverse ETF’S) This is how “Smart Money” moves. Why not teach ordinary Americans and retail investors the secrets of the trade? Here at WSG, you become not only an investor but an educated investor. Knowledge is “Power” Please tread carefully for those who hunger for cost averaging buying. I would not recommend doing so until we bottom out.

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DJIA Falls To 3 Month Low

Monday, May 24th, 2010

Stock selling accelerated through the close, with the Dow ending at a three-month low as worries about the global economic outlook overshadowed a bigger-than-expected rise in existing home sales. The DJIA lost 126 points, or 1.2%, closing at the lowest point since Feb. 2. Stocks had fallen in the early session, but turned positive by the afternoon and then turned lower the  last 20 minutes to close.

The housing market report marked a positive start to a busy week for economic news. Investors are looking for evidence that the U.S. economy is holding up despite the turmoil abroad. More housing reports were due later in the week.  Readings are also due on durable goods orders, personal income and spending, and consumer sentiment. Nonetheless, the positive report was countered by continued worries about the European debt crisis. The euro slumped, erasing last week’s gains, following reports that Spain’s central bank took over a long-established regional savings bank.

Stocks have been down more aggressively since hitting rally highs in late April. Since that time, the DJIA has lost 9%, the S&P has slipped 10.6% and the Nasdaq has dropped 11.9% through Friday’s close.

Analysts over the weekend have been questioning about a possible “Bear Market“. The selling has also raised worries about whether stocks are heading into a bear market, technically a decline of 20% to 30% off the highs. It is quite amazing how much fear the Great Recession has brought to investors. Today news headlines “Possible Bear Market?” I personally believe it’s a bit premature to say we’re heading towards a bear market. Is it possible,? It certainly is, but too early to tell. This is merely a “correction” as we’re approaching the 50% retracement. The 70% off the lows, run was fueled by a mix of government stimulus and expectations that earnings growth would pick up and the economy would recover.

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Selling Continues By Renewed Jitters To The Euro

Monday, May 24th, 2010

U.S. stock futures came under renewed selling pressure Monday, retreating after Spain’s weekend move to rescue a troubled lender fueled fresh concerns over growth in Europe and globally. S&P futures fell 4.9 points to 1079.70 and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.0 points to 1818.25. Futures on the DJIA dropped 35 points. U.S. stocks suffered through a difficult week, with the S&P losing 4.2% despite strength on Friday. Negative sentiment grew after Germany enacted a short-selling ban on German financials, euro-zone bonds and certain credit-default swaps.

The risk/reward balance is starting to move back in favor of equities, but it is not where an investor should take the plunge. I still maintain a bearish stance.

With Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in Beijing, Chinese President Hu Jintao said China would continue to work toward reforming its currency system, though he didn’t announce any concrete measures. Geithner said he “welcomed” the move and he hinted over what was at stake. “Continued, reliable access to the large and growing United States market is an important underpinning of China’s prosperity and growth,” Geithner said.

The euro was notably weak, hurt after the Bank of Spain rescued a lender over the weekend. The shared currency dropped below $1.24. Last week, the euro fell to a four-year low of $1.2143. Support is seen around $1.2135, the 50 percent retracement from the euro’s all-time low to its all-time high.  Further adding to the stress was news on Monday that Spain’s largest workers union was heading for a general strike in protest at the government’s austerity measures, although it preferred not to call one. The euro has retreated from $1.2670 hit on Friday. It rallied last week as investors exited extreme short positions in the single currency, in part due to fears of intervention to prop up the euro after its dramatic decline in past weeks.

Most metals futures improved, however, with gold futures up around $11.20 an ounce, while oil futures traded back around the $70-a-barrel mark. Data on existing home sales for April, due at 10 a.m., EDT, are the highlight of an otherwise quiet economics calendar. Also Monday, U.S.-listed shares of BP PLC (BP) fell ahead of the opening bell as the oil giant’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill faces continued scrutiny. The oil giant has spent $760 million so far on containment costs, the company said.

Elsewhere, American International Group Inc. (AIG) fell 0.5% in premarket trading. It has been reported the U.S. has closed a criminal investigation against AIG without filing any charges.

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite rallied 3.4% on hopes China wouldn’t tighten monetary policy too quickly, while the Nikkei 225 dipped 0.3% in Tokyo.

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Where To Invest During A Correction

Friday, May 21st, 2010

I’ve been asked by several investors where they should allocate their money during a heavy sell-off. During a correction, volatility remains high. One must take caution as markets tend to reverse in a blink of an eye. If you’re up, lock in your profits because playing the market down is just as fun and cash rewarding but tends to be a long slippery slope. During the “The Great Recession of 2007-2009, I personally traded these funds. At the end of April 2010, I dusted off my”Reverse Play Book“. It’s basically notes that I took during the crisis and how to cash in during down times. One shouldn’t get discouraged when the markets go south. As a matter of fact you get a big bang for your buck as markets go down faster than up. Look what happened the last 3 weeks. It took 6 months to reach 11,200 from 10k and it took 3 weeks to erase these precious gains. So onto my “Play Book”. As an investor you should do your own due diligence. Some funds are 3x’s the Inverse of the markets-which tends to be too volatile. Again these are substiutes to PUT Options. Please note they’re all Short Based ETF’s

QQQQ- The Fund seeks to provide investment results that generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the component securities of the Nasdaq-100 Index.- Put Options

SPY- The Trust seeks invest results that, before expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the component common stocks of the S&P 500 Index.- Put Options

SRS-  UltraShort Real Estate ETF

SKF-  UltraShort Financials ETF

DUG- UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF

SQQQ- UltraPro Short QQQ ETF

DTO- DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN

SIJ- UltraShort Industrials ETF

SSG- UltraShort Semiconductors ETF

SDK- UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ETF

MYY- Short MidCap 400 ETF

TWM- UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF

SZK- UltraShort Consumer Goods ETF

REW- UltraShort Technology ETF

EEV- UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

EWV- UltraShort MSCI Japan ETF

EUM- Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

SCC- UltraShort Consumer Services ETF

SJH- UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ETF

FXP- UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF

FAZ- Financial Bear 3X Shares ETF

ERY- Energy Bear 3X Shares ETF

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