Archive for May, 2010

Markets Down A Slippery Slope

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

I cannot stress who much pride we take when we receive several emails thanking WSG about the alerts ”to get out of stocks”.  We even provided charts and logic behind the due correction. Analysts called today’s crash the official entrance of a Market Correction. I beg to differ. Remember we stated it here first, at the end of April that we entered a Correction Phase prior to the 1,000 point crash! There’s too many variables and catalysts that’s causing this 1200 point slide from 11200 DJIA. BUT wait, we’re NOT DONE. Analysts now have to go back to the drawing board and re-evaluate there earnings forecasts. Their earnings were set unrealistically high and they blame the crisis in Europe. How low can we go? It dates backto my Fibonacci analysis that I had provided on May 5. Worst case scenario (Using the Fibonacci Graph from May 5) may be to 6600 which is 0% the absolute retracement (highly unlikely), 28% at 9200, 32% at 9500, 50% at 9800. My range will be around the 9400-9700 – 15%-20% Correction. The S&P in similar denomination to 900-1010. That’s when I’ll begin to build my positions.

Here’s what Others Predict

Standard & Poor’s said the correction could total 15 percent by the time all is said and done, sending its benchmark S&P to the 1035 range.

Others weren’t quite so pessimistic, but worry seemed to be the word as a confluence of bad news proved a toxic mix that ended a powerful 14-month rally. Trading-floor technicians had been looking at 1100—the 200-day moving average—as a key support level for the S&P 500. The point has held up well during recent market dips off the rally that began from the brutal lows of March 2009. But 1100 came and went Thursday as markets worried about whether European debt problems would spread to the US and how new financial regulations would hurt banks.

Economist Nouriel Roubini believes, stocks are likely to continue their aggressive decline and shed another 20 percent in value as the world economy weakens.

I expect a temporary bounce on the 200 day moving average that was tested during the flash crash. S&P 1060 and DJIA 9800 respectively.

News From Capital Hill

Tax Bill for Fund Managers Edges Forward in Congress:Taxes on the income of most managers of private-equity and other investment funds would more than double under a multibillion-dollar jobs package being readied by Democrats and expected to be released Thursday. The bill, which Democrats say would close tax loopholes given to the fund managers, would also tighten tax rules for multinational companies and extend unemployment and other benefits for millions of Americans. The legislation is a joint effort of the Senate and House of Representatives tax-writing panels and marks the first time a tax increase on fund managers’ profits has found support from Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Democrat. The tax on so-called carried interest impacts the typical 20 percent share of profits that fund managers reap from managing investors’ money. 

Many fund managers, who can earn millions of dollars in a good year, pay just a 15 percent tax rate on their share of profits. The bill proposes to treat 75 percent of those profits as ordinary income, which would mean a 35 percent tax rate for the highest earners.

Senate clears bank-reform bill for vote: The Senate voted narrowly Thursday to close off debate on a sweeping bank reform bill, setting the stage for a vote on legislation that would change the rules of American capitalism. The chamber approved the motion to end debate on a 60-40 vote. A similar attempt to end the debate failed 57-42 Wednesday afternoon.  Among other things, the bill would bring a huge swath of the $450 trillion derivatives market out of the dark and establish a system to dismantle a failing bank so its collapse doesn’t unsettle the markets. 

If approved by the Senate in a final vote late this week or early next, the bill would need to be reconciled with a House bank-reform package approved in December before a final version is sent to President Obama for his signature into law. Senators still will have the opportunity to vote on a few proposed amendments to the bill currently under review, including a tough measure that would limit the speculative activity of big banks.

A provision would seek to restore Glass Steagall, a statute approved in 1933 that prohibited a commercial bank with retail depositors from investment-banking activities such as owning full-service brokerages.

Rumor has it- Senate could OK sweeping bank reform bill tonight!!!

Markets In Shambles, DJIA Down 200

Thursday, May 20th, 2010

Congrats to all our loyal followers of the Wall Street Grand Blog! If you had followed my advice on 4/28  and 5/5 to steer clear away from the markets you have either A) saved a tons of losses or B) made a killing on shorting or purchasing Puts in just about any stock out there -my particular favorite -SPY or QQQQ’s. We still have ways to go. This will we be a long and steady decline to the 9500 - 9800 range in the DJIA. FYI the SPY puts in the May $110 Puts are up today 110% and up 1100% since my April 26th call. (My Pick for the month – Short APPLE currently $243)

We’ll have our up weeks as today was an obvious sign over exaggerated selling. As I had been stating all along play the bounce off the 200 day Moving Averages. At this level I anticipate a short rally before our next leg down. Analysts must now realign there estimates to the conservative side as I had anticipated the economy is shooting FALSE GREEN SHOOTS

Todays catalyst of the 200 point drop……JOBS

Stocks fell sharply at the open Thursday after an unexpected spike in jobless claims and as global jitters pushed the dollar higher. the CBOE volatility index spiked above 40. The Dow and S&P are on track to have their worst month since February 2008. 

The market was already pointing lower today as volatility surged in global markets amid worries about financial reform and the sovereign debt crisis, when the jobless claims report came out and further rattled the market. Initial claims for unemployment benefits shot up by 25,000 to 471,000 last week. Economists had expected claims to drop to 440,000. The dollar surged against the euro. Commodity prices fell, with crude oil dropping below $68 a barrel and gold falling to near $1,180 an ounce. Treasurys, particularly longer-dated securities, jumped on the stock market turmoil. The 30-year bond gained more than one point in price, sending its yield to 4.16 percent, its lowest since Oct. 20, 2009. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Uncertainty grew on the back of concerns about the euro zone’s economic health, and whether Germany’s financial reforms will backfire on stocks. Other European nations, including France, the Netherlands and Finland, announced they have no plans to follow Germany’s ban on naked short selling of specific instruments, to control what Chancellor Angela Merkel called “destructive” markets. Also in Europe, more protests are scheduled to take place in Greece today against the new austerity measures.

Asian markets were lower, with Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney down more than 1.5 percent each, as political divisions in Europe, again, and fears of more market regulation pressured stocks.

Still to come: The Philadelphia Fed Index will be announced at 10 am New York time, forecast up to 21.2 from 20.2 last month. At the same time, the Conference Board issues its monthly index of leading economic indicators, with consensus forecasts calling for an increase of 0.2 percent on top of last month’s 1.2 percent rise.

Financial Reform Vote Fails Test

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

After months of negotiation and debate, far-reaching legislation to overhaul the rules of Wall Street failed a key test vote in the Senate on Wednesday, casting a shadow over Democratic efforts to push the effort forward. The measure aims to stop bailouts, shine a light on complex financial products and strengthen consumer protection.  The vote was 57 to 42. Under Senate rules, Democrats needed 60 votes to move ahead to a final vote. Two Democrats opposed the bill, and two Republicans voted for it.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., plans to bring up the bill for another vote on Thursday at 2:30 pm ET. He had wanted a final vote by Friday, but that appears unlikely now. “Wall Street and, obviously, 39 out of 41 Republicans … think that things going on, on Wall Street, are just fine,” Reid said. “I think that’s a real stretch to think the American people think that they want this to go on as in years past.” Republican Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa said the Democratic move was defeated “because there are important amendments that should be considered but that could have been shut out.”

Congress first started working on financial overhaul last spring. The House passed a version in December, and the Senate began drafting bills last November. Since January 2009, financial services firms have spent nearly $600 million and hired hundreds of lobbyists to influence the debate.

What reform means: The legislation would establish a consumer financial protection regulatory agency that could write new rules to protect consumers from unfair or abusive mortgages and credit cards. It would create a council of regulators that would sound an alarm before companies are in position to trigger a financial crisis. The bill would also establish new procedures for shutting down giant financial firms that are collapsing. One big issue that remains in flux is a controversial proposal to crack down on banks that trade derivatives.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., introduced a compromise amendment on Tuesday that would water down the proposed ban. But on Wednesday, before the vote, Dodd dropped his intention to bring up the amendment, according to a congressional aide. The Senate also has yet to vote on a high-profile amendment that would exempt auto dealers from the purview of the proposed new consumer protection regulator.

Democrat, Maria Cantwell of Washington wants the Senate to vote on an amendment reestablishing the firewall between investment and commercial banking. She also wants the Senate to vote on an amendment to strengthen penalties on companies that deal in derivatives that aren’t traded transparently. 

What Will The German Short Ban Bring To Markets

Wednesday, May 19th, 2010

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday that the “euro is in danger” and warned that if the “euro fails, Europe fails.”  That was the reasoning behind a German government decision to ban naked short selling of German bank stocks, euro-zone bonds and credit default swaps.

But the decision prompted further selling of the euro overnight and analysts said it will have little or no effect on investors’ ability to go short. The ban comes in the wake of Germany’s decision to back a multi-billion euro rescue package for the euro zone bond market and offer support for Greece. Politically, Merkel is under immense pressure to find someone to blame for the debt crisis and having forced austerity packages on Greece, Portugal and others — is now taking aim  speculators.

The irony here, there’s ways around the short ban. There are lots of ways to short a stock and this will not stop most of them.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will now push for a transaction tax at the G20 and called on euro-zone members to cut deficits now to help convince the market of the blocks financial health.  ”We haven’t really convinced the markets yet, as we have seen the euro falling further. That means we must reduce deficits,” Schaeuble told German radio.

Economists at Goldman Sachs in Germany said the move is a direct result of the recent rescue package for the European bond market. 

Policymakers are determined to protect the euro zone, and they have identified the financial markets as the key obstacle for stability, which implies risks of further regulation. So much for ”Free Markets”.  But the sudden focus on short selling mean policymakers are taking their eye off the ball, namely the structural imbalances that led to the debt crisis in the first place. Germany is also pressuring other Euro Countires to enforce the same within their Borses.

Bears In Control Once Again; 100 Pt. Drop

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

Better-than-expected results from major retail chains and tame inflation figures weren’t enough to hold up the markets after a slide in the euro led major indexes to losses again. Germany’s announcement it would halt a form of short selling on the shares of financial firms also contributed to the declines, while housing market numbers were mixed.

Early trading put stocks in the black after ten nations sent bailout money to Greece, but the European currency eventually sank to its lowest level in four years, worth just $1.22. Investors fled to the safety of U.S. government debt, pushing the yield on the benchmark ten-year note down 0.11% to 3.39%.

Mostly robust earnings from major retailers couldn’t halt the slide. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 115 points, or 1.1%, to 10,511, and the S&P 500 was off 16 points, or 1.4%, to end at 1,121. The Nasdaq lagged with a loss of 37 points, or 1.6%, to 2,317.

Earlier in the day Wal-Mart WMT said it beat analyst estimates with a profit of 88 cents a share in the latest quarter, up from 77 cents a year ago on higher sales. That lifted shares of the giant chain by 1.9%.

The optimistic atmosphere deflated by midday, as persistent fears about European debt pushed the euro to a fresh four-year low of $1.219.

In similar fashion, the S&P SPX – 1,120.80 surrendered an early lead to finish 16.1 points, or 1.4%, lower. What’s more, the broad-market barometer breached support at its 160-day moving average, a technical defeat of significant concern. As predicted in yesterday’s post. We’re not done yet. We have ways to go. We’re soon approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 200 day Moving Average as were I expect to bounce from now 10,248 on the DJIA. In the near future, expect to head lower towards the 9800 to 9500 range.

Markets Up On Retail Earnings

Tuesday, May 18th, 2010

U.S. equities were comfortably in positive territory Tuesday morning following a volatile session that saw stocks in the red throughout much of the prior session, working their way to small gains in the final minutes of trading. The DJIA had fallen more than 180 points in the noon hour Monday on continuing concerns over the European economy, but Tuesday morning investors got a piece of good news on the U.S. housing market and two positive-trending earnings reports from major retailers Home Depot and Wal-Mart.

The Commerce Department said housing starts grew 5.8% last month, better than economists had hoped for, but the positive news was short-lived as applications for new building permits, a measure of future construction, declined.

Wholesale prices fell 0.1% in April while core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%. Without inflationary pressures, the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-setting arm of the Federal Reserve, will likely not raise key interest rates in the near future. The FOMC’s two-day policy meeting last month didn’t produce any changes to low interest rates, but the bank said that consumer spending had picked up and that hiring was starting to improve.

The major indexes opened higher. Minutes into trading the Dow gained 68 points to 10,694, the S&P 500 added 8 points to 1,145 and the Nasdaq pushed up 11 points to 2,365. The euro continued to drive investor sentiment Tuesday morning as traders look to the currency as an indicator of the pace of the European economy. Concern over sovereign debt issues in the Euro zone have dragged on investors for months as Wall Street weighed the potential long-term impact of a slow economy in Europe after a nearly $1 trillion bailout fund was formed by European leaders and the International Monetary Fund to prop up debt-ridden countries in the region such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. The euro has been reeling as the European debt crisis escalated, hitting fresh four-year lows early Monday. The currency rose slightly to 1.2402 against the dollar Tuesday morning.

Commodity prices also rose. Crude oil contracts for June delivery had dipped below $70 on Monday for the first time since February, but were $2.14 higher at $72.22 per barrel Tuesday morning, leading shares of Dow components Exxon Mobil XOM and Chevron CVX higher as well. Gold futures gained $10.90 to $1,210 per ounce.

On the earnings front

Home Depot HD said its quarterly profits soared 41% to an adjusted 45 cents per share thanks to more customer transactions and higher sales of seasonal items. The figure topped Wall Street’s predictions and the home improvement retailer upped its 2010 sales and earnings outlook, leading investors to bid the company’s stock up 1.4% Tuesday morning. Wal-Mart WMT profits rose 10% to 88 cents per share on cost cuts and worldwide sales growth, beating expectations. The key measure of same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least one year, fell 1.1% and the giant retailer offered a tepid outlook for the rest of 2010. Still, investors bid the retailer’s shares up 2.3% in early trading. Investors continue to await quarterly results from onent Hewlett-Packard HPQ due after the closing bell. Shares gained 0.7% ahead of the report.

Market's Recover From A 3 Digit Tumble

Monday, May 17th, 2010

The stock market drifted from a modest gain in the early going to a loss of more than 1% or 180 points, but market participants gradually bid stocks higher in the second half of the session. In the end, the three major indices settled with slight gains.

Sellers showed strength for the first part of the session. Their efforts had taken more than 80% of the names in the S&P into negative territory. Cyclical stocks seemed to be their primary target as materials, industrials, and financials all fell to a loss of more than 1%. The S&P still manages to hold above the 100 day Moving Averages. I don’t anticipate it to hold this level by the end of the week. I think in the the near term we’re heading towards the 200 day Moving Average and bounce off this level of 1100 in the S&P.

Energy stocks saw some of the worst price action as they dropped more than 2% — the energy sector’s slide was exacerbated by continued weakness in oil prices, which fell to a three-month low and closed pit trade with a 2.1% loss at $70.08 per barrel. However, buyers started to step back in and helped energy stocks cut their losses. The sector still finished with a 1.0% loss, but that was less than half the loss that the sector had seen at its session low.

Meanwhile, materials stocks settled with just a 0.2% loss. Industrials closed 0.3% lower and financials finished flat. Financials were helped by strength among consumer finance plays, a few of which reported improvements in their monthly delinquency metrics. A few big banks also saw some improvement in their monthly credit card metrics.

// On the earnings front, Lowe’s LOW 25.26 beat earnings expectations for the quarter but disappointed with it its outlook, saying 2010 will be “a year of transition.”Lowe’s was just the latest in a string of companies that beat their earnings targets but issued disappointing outlooks. Last week, Cisco CSCO 24.87 CEO John Chambers rattled the market. The networking-gear maker beat on both earnings and revenue but Chambers said there is still reason for caution given the weak job market. Priceline PCLN 200.15, JC Penney JCP 27.62, Kohl’s KSS 53.64, and Nordstrom JWN 39.25 also delivered weak outlooks last week.

This Week:

TUESDAY: JPMorgan & Massey Energy shareholders meeting; Fed’s Pianalto speaks; housing starts; PPI, earnings from Home Depot, Wal-Mart & Hewlett-Packard
WEDNESDAY: FOMC minutes; Google developers’ conference; weekly mortgage apps; CPI; weekly crude inventories; earnings from Deere, Target, Applied Materials
THURSDAY: Toyota/NHTSA hearing; BOJ monetary policy meeting; weekly jobless claims; leading indicators; Philadelphia Fed survey; earnings from Computer Sciences, Gamestop, Staples, Dell, Gap
FRIDAY: Earnings from Ann Taylor

Currencies Need To Be Asset Backed

Monday, May 17th, 2010

Today’s crisis stems from policies accepted decades ago. Granted, by rescinding this policy had prevented the World Powers to fall back into time of the 1920′s Depression. The dollar has no official collateral other than the strong economy. But what happens when the economy begins to sputter? It’s as if we applied for a Stated Income loan to pull out a mortgage without a reliable income or collateral. The dollar used to be backed by the Gold.

The Policy commonly known as The Bretton Woods system referred to the international monetary regime that prevailed from the end of World War II until the early 1970s. Taking its name from the site of the 1944 conference that created the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, the Bretton Woods system was history’s first example of a fully negotiated monetary order intended to govern currency relations among sovereign states. In principle, the regime was designed to combine binding legal obligations with multilateral decision-making conducted through an international organization, the IMF, endowed with limited supranational authority. In practice the initial scheme, as well as its subsequent development and ultimate demise, were directly dependent on the preferences and policies of its most powerful member, the United States.

Setting up a system of rules, institutions, and procedures to regulate the international monetary system, the planners at Bretton Woods established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), which today is part of the World Bank Group.

Four points in particular stand out. First, negotiators generally agreed that as far as they were concerned, the interwar period had conclusively demonstrated the fundamental disadvantages of unrestrained flexibility of *exchange rates. The floating rates of the 1930s were seen as having discouraged trade and investment and to have encouraged destabilizing speculation and competitive depreciation’s. Yet in an era of more activist economic policy, governments were at the same time reluctant to return to permanently fixed rates on the model of the classical *gold standard of the nineteenth century. Policy-makers understandably wished to retain the right to revise currency values on occasion as circumstances warranted. Hence a compromise was sought between the polar alternatives of either freely floating or irrevocably fixed rates – some arrangement that might gain the advantages of both without suffering the disadvantages of either.

A high level of agreement among the powerful on the goals and means of international economic management facilitated the decisions reached by the Bretton Woods Conference. Its foundation was based on a shared belief in capitalism. Although the developed countries’ governments differed in the type of capitalism they preferred for their national economies (France, for example, preferred greater planning and state intervention, whereas the United States favored relatively limited state intervention), all relied primarily on market mechanisms and on private ownership.

Thus, it is their similarities rather than their differences that appear most striking. All the participating governments at Bretton Woods agreed that the monetary chaos of the interwar period had yielded several valuable lessons.

The experience of the Great Depression was fresh on the minds of public officials. The planners at Bretton Woods hoped to avoid a repeat of the debacle of the 1930s, when intransigent American insistence as a creditor nation on the repayment of Allied war debts, combined with an inclination to isolationism, led to a breakdown of the international financial system and a worldwide economic depression.[1] The “beggar thy neighbor” policies of 1930s governments—using currency devaluations to increase the competitiveness of a country’s export products to reduce balance of payments deficits—worsened national deflationary spirals, which resulted in plummeting national incomes, shrinking demand, mass unemployment, and an overall decline in world trade. Trade in the 1930s became largely restricted to currency blocs (groups of nations that use an equivalent currency, such as the “Sterling Area” of the British Empire). These blocs retarded the international flow of capital and foreign investment opportunities. Although this strategy tended to increase government revenues in the short run, it dramatically worsened the situation in the medium and longer run.

Previous regimes

In the 19th and early 20th centuries gold played a key role in international monetary transactions. The gold standard was used to back currencies; the international value of currency was determined by its fixed relationship to gold; gold was used to settle international accounts. The gold standard maintained fixed exchange rates that were seen as desirable because they reduced the risk of trading with other countries.

Imbalances in international trade were theoretically rectified automatically by the gold standard. A country with a deficit would have depleted gold reserves and would thus have to reduce its money supply. The resulting fall in demand would reduce imports and the lowering of prices would boost exports; thus the deficit would be rectified. Any country experiencing inflation would lose gold and therefore would have a decrease in the amount of money available to spend. This decrease in the amount of money would act to reduce the inflationary pressure. Supplementing the use of gold in this period was the British pound. Based on the dominant British economy, the pound became a reserve, transaction, and intervention currency. But the pound was not up to the challenge of serving as the primary world currency, given the weakness of the British economy after the Second World War.

The architects of Bretton Woods had conceived of a system wherein exchange rate stability was a prime goal. Yet, in an era of more activist economic policy, governments did not seriously consider permanently fixed rates on the model of the classical gold standard of the nineteenth century. Gold production was not even sufficient to meet the demands of growing international trade and investment. And a sizeable share of the world’s known gold reserves were located in the Soviet Union, which would later emerge as a Cold War rival to the United States and Western Europe.

The only currency strong enough to meet the rising demands for international currency transactions was the U.S. dollar. The strength of the U.S. economy, the fixed relationship of the dollar to gold ($35 an ounce), and the commitment of the U.S. government to convert dollars into gold at that price made the dollar as good as gold. In fact, the dollar was even better than gold: it earned interest and it was more flexible than gold.

Another view is that in the time of discount banks, discount was the interest earned on gold, and that the only way to repay interest on government bonds is by printing more dollars, thus raising the price of gold. If gold is fixed at $35 then other countries will demand gold and not accept dollars. The closing of the gold window in 1971 was the result.

Nixon Shock

By the early 1970s, as the Vietnam War accelerated inflation, the United States as a whole began running a trade deficit. The crucial turning point was 1970, which saw U.S. gold coverage deteriorate from 55% to 22%. This, in the view of neoclassical economists, represented the point where holders of the dollar had lost faith in the ability of the U.S. to cut budget and trade deficits.

In 1971 more and more dollars were being printed in Washington, then being pumped overseas, to pay for government expenditure on the military and social programs. In the first six months of 1971, assets for $22 billion fled the U.S. In response, on August 15, 1971, Nixon unilaterally imposed 90-day wage and price controls, a 10% import surcharge, and most importantly “closed the gold window”, making the dollar inconvertible to gold directly, except on the open market. Unusually, this decision was made without consulting members of the international monetary system or even his own State Department, and was soon dubbed the “Nixon Shock”.

The surcharge was dropped in December 1971 as part of a general revaluation of major currencies, which were henceforth allowed 2.25% devaluations from the agreed exchange rate. But even the more flexible official rates could not be defended against the speculators. By March 1976, all the major currencies were floating—in other words, exchange rates were no longer the principal method used by governments to administer monetary policy.

Today’s Issues

As gold hits a succession of all-time highs and the euro struggles for mere survival, debt overloads at the base of the recent currency trends can be traced directly to the US central bank. The Federal Reserve’s in both the US and Europe, practice of indiscriminately printing money is the chief culprit that has led to the surge in gold and demise of the euro. The Federal Reserve behind the scenes has the power to create money out of thin air. They can bail out their friends and let the people they don’t like fail, and create a trillion dollars or more, out of thin air in order to prop up some companies at the expense of the tax payers. The Fed thinks they can keep doing what they’re doing, because the new economic laws will bring this to an end and probably in the not-too-distant future.

Correction Continues & California Budget Cuts

Friday, May 14th, 2010

Just as I had predicted on April 28 here and on May 5 where should be heading next here. Markets will trade in a range from 9,000 to the 11,000 in the DJIA. I wouldn’t suggest buying yet. Volume has been extremely heavy which signals Firms and Funds unloading shares and shorts picking up momentum.The VIX $31.24 is also indiacting markets are at unease of the Europe situation.

A broad-based selloff dropped stocks for sharp losses of 162 points on Friday, but the stock market managed to preserve an impressive weekly gain.

Earlier this week stocks recorded one of their best single-session surges in years amid news that the European Union and International Monetary Fund pledged to provide support to eurozone countries with tenuous fiscal conditions. However, concerns regarding the ease in which funds can be disbursed to needy countries and whether countries in trouble can successfully execute austerity measures. Weakness in the French index was exacerbated by chatter that France could lose its AAA rating.

Caution surrounding the state of finances in Europe triggered renewed selling against the euro, which fell roughly 1.3% to a new one-year low of 1.2359 per dollar. That helped the Dollar Index ascend to a fresh 52-week high; it closed near that mark with a 0.9% gain. Strength in the greenback was augmented by the many that sought safety as an element of uncertainty crept back into the macro picture. Such uncertainty prompted participants to sell stocks en masse. As such, nearly 98% of the names in the S&P 500 logged losses and all 30 Dow components dropped into the red.

Of the major sectors, weakness was most pronounced among financial issues — the sector fell 2.7%. Visa (V 77.26, -8.47) and MasterCard (MA 212.45, -19.86) were key laggards after the Senate approved to adopt an amendment on interchange fees on debit transactions.

As a result of such steep and broad-based losses, the Volatility Index closed nearly 18% higher. Though it is down approximately 25% from the 52-week high that it set last week, it is still up nearly 100% from the 52-week low that it recorded in mid-April.

Gold garnered support amid the increased volatility. In fact, the safety play climbed to a record high of almost $1250 per ounce ahead of the opening bell. However, it gave up its gain to finish pit trade with a fractional loss at $1227.80 per ounce.

Treasuries attracted plenty of support amid the stock market’s tumble. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note closed roughly 20 ticks higher. That dropped its yield toward 3.45%.

Though safe havens were the strongest performers this session, the stock market was still able to close with a weekly gain of more than 2%. That follows two straight weekly losses.

As an aside, advance retail sales for April increased 0.4%, which is stronger than the expected increase of 0.2%. Retail sales less autos increased 0.4%, which is a bit less than the expected increase of 0.5%.

The preliminary May Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan came in at 73.3, which is slightly below the 73.5 that had been expected, but it is still up from the prior reading of 72.2.

CALIFORNIA

Citing the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger laid out a draconian plan Friday to close an estimated $19 billion budget gap with steep spending cuts and higher taxes.

The new budget calls for $12.4 billion in spending cuts and $4.9 billion in higher taxes.

Personal income taxes will go up 5.1%, corporate taxes will increase 4.2% and liquor taxes will rise 6.6%. An estate tax will be imposed — a move that could raise $892 million. The plan also calls for a 4.8% surcharge on home- and commercial-insurance policies to pay for fire protection. (To me this will signal the beginning for all states to adopt. As I had stated before keep an eye of the misc taxes the government will impose on businesses, people, and products. Prices for products will begin to rise which is the first phase of inflation before the dollar becomes debased. Companies will be forced to pass on the expense to consumers.)

What’s more, most state workers will see a 10% reduction in wages under the proposal.The revised 2010-11 budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1 has to clear the state’s legislative body in Sacramento. In his revised budget, Schwarzenegger has proposed eliminating a popular welfare-to-work program known as CalWorks. The plan proposes painful cuts to many of the state’s neediest citizens, including a 60% cut in mental-health care and the elimination of child-care programs for the poor. Part of the proposed austerity stems from fewer federal funds, estimated at $3.4 billion — about half of what Schwarzenegger had petitioned Washington for earlier this year. The Republican governor said the state already has eliminated all the “low-hanging fruit” and must now “use the ax.”

The budget remains committed to funding for K-12 education as well as the University of California, California State and California Community college systems.

California, hard hit by the recession, is the largest state in the United States,. with a population of 37 million. It has one of the nation’s highest joblessness rates. The Golden State’s unemployment rate is 12.6%, compared with the national average of 9.9%.

DJIA Shaves Off 3/4 Of Yesterday's Gains

Thursday, May 13th, 2010

U.S. stocks on Thursday made a late-session drop that pulled the DJIA down by triple digits, with Wall Street weighing reports of widening probes of large banks and disappointments from retailers. On the plus side, the Labor Department said first-time filings for unemployment benefits fell for the fourth straight week last week, backpedaling to 444,000 from an upwardly revised 448,000 the week prior. On the other hand, the figures fell short of economists’ expectations, with most predicting a drop to 440,000. So the figure is neither good or bad.

Cisco CSCO  25.53 was the biggest Dow decliner, down 4.5 percent, after leading the pack on Wednesday amid a wave of tech optimism. The company beat analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue but cautious comments from CEO John Chambers rattled the market a bit. Chambers said that the company is emerging from the downturn gaining market share but there is still reason for caution, given the weak job market. He also said he is closely watching events in Europe, which accounts for 20 percent of the company’s revenue.  Today, Chambers did a little damage control, saying his cautious remarks were “overinterpreted.”

This came after encouraging outlooks from both IBM  131.48  // and Intel INTC  22.50 // on Wednesday. IBM said it expects to earn at least $20 a share by 2015, and Intel said it expects to double its earnings growth in the next few years. Both IBM and Intel today finished lower.

Retailers

Across the board there is some concern about the retailers. A lot of the retailers are complaining about a slowdown in traffic because it’s colder. There’s overriding concern about financials with the news stories about investigations. Investors found reason for disappointment after results from Kohl’s Corp. KSS 53.83, and Urban Outfitters Inc. URBN 37.00, shares of Kohl’s fell 5.8% and Urban Outfitters dropped 6.7%.

Commodities

Gold fell one day after hitting a record high, and crude finished below $75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange