Archive for September, 2010

Ireland & Spain Threatened With A Downgrade

Tuesday, September 28th, 2010

Standard & Poor’s estimate that Ireland will have to pour 35 billion euros into Anglo Irish Bank looks increasingly realistic and any amount beyond that could trigger rating downgrades, an S&P analyst was quoted on Tuesday as saying.

“Estimates which were previously strongly against our 35 billion now seem to be becoming more in line with that level of recapitalisation cost,” S&P analyst Trevor Cullinan told state broadcaster RTE.

“The government’s plan B with Anglo means that this 35 billion could even be exceeded. If that were to be the case, then potentially there would be further downward rating actions from Standard & Poor’s,” he added.

Spain auctioned 3 billion euros ($4 billion) of Treasury bills at rising borrowing costs as a decision by Moody’s Investors Service on lowering the country’s credit rating looms.  Spain sold 1.17 billion euros of three-month bills at an average yield of 0.685 percent, compared with 0.624 percent at the last auction on Aug. 24. It sold 1.81 billion euros of six- month bills at a yield of 1.18 percent, compared with 1.037 percent in August, the Bank of Spain said. It had set a maximum target for the auction of 3.5 billion euros.

Moody’s said on June 30 it may cut Spain’s Aaa rating when it completes a review within three months. The government is also due to announce its borrowing plan for 2011 on Sept. 30 as it presents to parliament the most austere budget in three decades, which aims to cut the deficit in half in two years.

“There is a risk of a two-notch move, or one-notch with some warnings that they could go lower is feasible,” said Harvinder Sian, a senior bond strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. “A two-notch probably isn’t priced in.” The spread on Spanish 10-year debt rose to 191 basis points at 11:14 a.m. in Madrid, compared with 187 basis points yesterday. The extra yield investors demand to hold Portuguese and Irish debt surged to euro-era records today, increasing pressure on Spain. Fitch Ratings cut Spain to AA+ on May 28, citing concerns over economic growth. Standard & Poor’s ranks the nation AA after stripping Spain of the top rating in January 2009.

Moody’s downgraded Greece on June 14 by four steps to non- investment grade, citing “substantial” risks to economic growth from austerity measures tied to a 110 billion-euro European Union-led aid package. The company cut Portugal’s rating on July 13 by two notches to A1. S&P cut Ireland to AA on Aug. 24, its third cut in two years, citing the possible costs of supporting the nation’s financial sector.

Spain’s cabinet approved on Sept. 24 the 2011 budget, which aims to reduce spending 3 percent compared with this year and includes an increase in income tax on workers earning more than 120,000 euros a year. The plan goes to parliament on Sept. 30 where Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero needs to win votes from smaller parties to pass the plan. The country’s two largest unions are planning a general strike on Sept. 29, to protest the austerity measures and changes to labor law.

The Socialist government aims to cut the budget shortfall to 6 percent of gross domestic product in 2011 from 11.1 percent last year, bringing it within the European Union’s 3 percent limit in 2013. To achieve the reduction, the government is cutting public wages 5 percent this year, raising taxes, reducing spending on infrastructure and freezing pensions.

Markets Little Swayed By M&A

Monday, September 27th, 2010

Stocks lost ground in the last half hour of trading and closed near the lows of the session Monday amid light volume and a flurry of merger and acquisition activity.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 48.22 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10,812.04, after rising nearly 2 percent in the previous session, and after four weeks of gains. Financials, industrials and health care sectors declined, while telecom and utilities rose.

The market weakness was most likely a temporary pause as investors regroup from the significant gains of last week. We broke out of the May through September trading range that we’d been in, and we broke out with some vigor. Prices could move a bit higher, but at this point, in the short term with limited upside.

In a session void of notable economic releases, stocks struggled to pick a direction today, with the Street instead weighing mounds of merger-and-acquisition headlines against discouraging news from across the pond. On the buyout front, Southwest Airlines (LUV) shared the spotlight with Unilever plc (UL) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), with all three announcing plans to purchase smaller-cap peers. However, while investors may have interpreted the deluge of deal making as a sign of corporate confidence, any bullish momentum was eventually negated by resurfacing fears about Europe’s fiscal health. More specifically, a high-profile downgrade for Anglo Irish Bank rekindled concerns about the financial stability in the euro zone, effectively stalling stocks’ September rally. The credit markets remain strong and improving, as today’s M&A activity suggests the recovery is alive and well.

M&A Topic Of The Day Again

Monday, September 27th, 2010

In a sign that the Elite’s are vigorously pursuing growth in untapped markets and efficiency and lower cost. August was the busiest M&A  action in a very long time. There’s doesn’t look to be any slowing down as the cash rich companies are bidding for rivals in grwoth markets.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s No. 1 retailer, made a proposal to buy Massmart Holdings Ltd. for $4.26 billion in its biggest deal in more than 10 years, as it seeks entry into the rapidly growing African market. Wal-Mart’s proposed offer for the South Africa-based retailer is 148 rand or $21.13 a share. 

Wal-Mart’s stock dropped 0.4% to $53.85 on Monday. The $400 billion-plus retailer has become increasingly reliant on growth from its international markets, about a quarter of its sales, while growth in the U.S. has slowed. Wal-Mart has bought stakes in local operators in markets from Chile to China to help it penetrate the overseas markets. Its key international unit, Asda in the U.K., came from a $10 billion-plus purchase in 1999.

Wal-Mart International operates in 14 countries and Puerto Rico. Massmart operates 290 stores in 13 African countries, but most of them are in South Africa.

In the airline industry: Several consolidations are taking place: Southwest Airlines Co. plans to buy AirTran Holdings in a $1.4 billion deal that brings it access to the world’s busiest airport along with a foothold for expanding in the Northeast and becoming an international carrier. Dallas-based Southwest’s  (LUV 14.06, +1.78, +14.50%)  agreement to pay $7.69 a share in cash and stock represents a 69% premium over AirTran’s stock before the deal was unveiled Monday morning. The total payout to take over Orlando, Fla.-based AirTran (AAI 7.34, +2.79, +61.30%)  will be $3.4 billion including debt and aircraft operating leases.

Risk Trade Is On; Markets Up 150 Points; Gold

Friday, September 24th, 2010

U.S. stocks opened strongly higher Friday, with the Dow industrials up more than 100 points, with Wall Street finding reason for cheer in a report on U.S. manufacturing in August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA rose 142.66 points to 10,805.08. The S&P 15.99 points to 1,140.82.

A report showing the largest decline in durable-goods orders in a year was cheered by economists and markets on Friday as attention focused on improved reading for capital goods. Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 1.3% in August, the Commerce Department reported Friday, dragged down by orders for transportation equipment decreased. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 2%. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.4% for durable-goods orders. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 4.1% in August, compared with a decline of 5.3% in the prior month. Analysts consider these core capital goods orders to be the best gauge of capital spending by businesses. Shipments of core capital goods rose 1.6% in August, compared with a gain of 0.1% in the prior month. This should bode well for” third-quarter gross domestic product.

Shipments in August fell 1.5%, compared with a gain of 2.5% in the prior month. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.4% in August, following a gain of 0.6% in July. The monthly durables report is volatile, with swings in demand for civilian aircraft and other expensive items. Durable-goods orders in July rose an upwardly revised 0.7%, compared with an earlier estimate of 0.4%

David Tepper comments pushed markets higher. Tepper of the hedge fund Appaloosa Management said on CNBC Friday that he’s getting back into stocks, and added he’s not interested in financials at the moment. Tepper’s bet on financial stocks at the bottom of the financial crisis helped to boost Appaloosa’s 2010 returns to 132.7 percent, net of fees. Performance documents from an investor show the fund was up nearly 42 percent through July. You could visibly see futures begin to move when Tepper said he was into stocks.

Other factors helping the market this morning: the sagging dollar, and its boost to multinational companies, the downsizing of the GM deal, and Petrobras’ plans to raise $70 billion in what would be the biggest initial public offering in the world. The funds would allow Petrobas to tap offshore oil reserves.

August new home sales are due at 10 a.m. and are expected to rise by 291,000 purchases from 276,000 in July, when sales plummeted to the lowest level on record.

Gold futures climbed above $1,300 an ounce on Friday, extending their record-breaking run, as the metal’s safe-haven appeal continued to draw investors. The most recent actions of several central banks have added fuel to fears regarding a depreciation race among global currencies. These fears should boost the gold price in the long run.

Markets Are Making A Healthy Pull Back

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

No need to fear investors, inorder for this mini rally to continue we need a healthly pullback. We’ve been up for 2 weeks. Though the S&p has pulled back below the 1030 mark that’s fine. I would express more concern if we followed through below the 1116 mark. Stocks in the event staggered lower today, as investors expressed some anxiety over a round of disappointing data from the euro zone. Not only did Ireland’s second-quarter gross domestic product shrink unexpectedly, but the composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the euro zone backpedaled to 53.8 in August — confirming suspicions of an economic slowdown in the region. Meanwhile, on the home front, a steeper-than-forecast jump in weekly U.S. jobless claims added fresh fuel to the bearish case. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P both made a brief run into the black around midday, thanks to upbeat data on existing home sales and leading indicators — but, in the face of so many economic red flags, the bulls were unable to hold their ground.

“Unfortunately, the S&P couldn’t hold its breakout above 1,130. It dropped right back into its post-flash crash range. The concerns right now is from the  underperformance from financial stocks. Without their leadership or at least participation it will be tough for any rally to have staying power. I think we’re taking a breather for now. My top range 1250 for the S&P. The world has fallen into stagnant growth.

Claims Jump & Buffet Says Still In Recession

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 465,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, breaking two straight weeks of declines. Analysts polled had forecast claims unchanged at 450,000. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 453,000. New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, highlighting continued labor market weakness. 

A Labor Department official said only one state had been estimated for last week’s claims report and noted that applications for jobless benefits tend to rise in the week following a holiday. The four-week average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 3,250 to 463,250, the lowest since July 31. The labor market has been showing modest signs of improvement after a setback in the second quarter as economic growth slowed sharply.

Relentlessly high unemployment is crimping consumer spending and the Federal Reserve on Tuesday signaled it would, if needed, inject more money into the economy to shore up the recovery and avert a damaging downward spiral in prices. The central bank already has cut overnight interest rates to near zero and pumped more than $1.7 trillion into the economy with purchases of Treasury and mortgage-related debt. Stimulating the lethargic economy is a major challenge for President Barack Obama, and a wave of voter anger over a 9.6 percent unemployment rate could cause the Democratic Party to lose control of Congress to Republicans in the Nov. 2 mid-term election.

The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 48,000 to 4.49 million in the week ended Sept. 11 from an upwardly revised 4.54 million the prior week. The insured unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the insured labor force that is jobless, dipped to 3.5 percent during that period from 3.6 percent the prior week. The number of people on emergency benefits increased 113,785 to 4.2 million in the week ended Sept. 4

Buffet

Warren Buffett, a financial leader and a bellwether of business, said we are still in a recession, but he also cautioned people against blaming the government. The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway sat down with CNBC’s Becky Quick to talk about the recession and the recovery.

“The government did the right thing in getting the economy going again,” Buffett said. In the second half of the interview, Buffett returned to the government’s role in the recovery. He suggested that the Federal Reserve, rather than paying banks a quarter of percent on the trillion dollars on deposit, should charge a quarter of percent to leave their money on deposit to encourage banks to make loans.

The government’s policies are not “kick-starting things as much as the American public would like,” Buffett said. However, “we will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. … But it’s not helpful to have people as unhappy as they are about what’s going on in Washington.” Even though the National Bureau of Economic Research declared we were no longer in a recession, Buffett said: “We’re in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back to where it was before. … We’re still in a recession and we’re not gonna be out of it for a while. But we will get out of it.”

Blockbuster Declares Bankruptcy & Satyem (SAY) Sky Rockets

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Back in March I wrote here an article that technology has reshaped the industry in a significant way. The way Snapfish revolutionized the film industry and destroyed Eastman Kodak (EK). I also said the Blockbuster would be next to go bankrupt as their business concept is non-existent. Well gents the day has come. As published reports indicated that Blockbuster would file for bankruptcy this week, its stock dropped 31% to just 6 cents, making the formerly mighty movie renter worth just $12 million, not including $900 million of debt. Blockbuster‘s pain has been Netflix’s gain, and Wednesday was no exception. Netflix shares rallied 7% to an all-time high $156.93, giving the DVD-by-mail pioneer a market cap of $8 billion. The expansion of Netflix continued Wednesday with the rollout of its streaming service in Canada, its first foray outside the U.S.

Their have been reporting that Carl Icahn and a group of creditors will swap their debt for Blockbuster stock in a plan that could be revealed Thursday and is sure to anger existing shareholders, whose investments would be wiped clean. Icahn isn’t the large shareholder he once was, and in January he surrendered the board seat that he fought so to obtain five years ago. However, he lately has been buying up Blockbuster bonds on the cheap. Blockbuster’s troubles are owed to competition from Netflix and Redbox but also can be traced back to Viacom spinning it off as a separately traded company six years ago after saddling it with massive debt. Reuters says the Icahn plan has senior bondholders loaning the company $125 million so that it can remain a functioning entity, then converting $630 million of debt into equity while lesser bondholders get wiped out.

Satyam Computer Services (SAY) one of my speculative stocks ranked 2 as my most undervalued stock under $7 skyrocketed 20% to $6.6. I first quoted this back in May at $5.25 for a gain of26%.  Congrats to all members. We have a little bit more to go.

India-based Satyam is an information technology services company. The company leverages its deep industry and functional expertise. The company is part of the Mahindra Group, which is a global industrial federation of companies and one of the top industrial companies based in India.  Satyam has development and delivery centers in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Brazil, UK, Hungary and Singapore, among other countries.

Satyam shares are climbing ahead of the firm’s audited financial results review for fiscal year 2009 and 2010 next week. Earlier this month, Satyam launched a single-window “Art-to-Part” engagement model for partners in Aerospace and Defense. The new partnership model seeks to cover both design and manufacturing areas to offer a seamless engagement experience for the company’s partners. Through its new proposal, the company is looking to leverage synergies within the Mahindra Group, using the skill sets and experience from Mahindra Aerospace and Mahindra Defense, both of which specialize in aerospace manufacturing and defense systems. Last month, Satyam announced the appointment of two Malaysian IT veterans, Azlan Othman and Rasedi Mohamad to drive growth in key industries and solutions segments in Malaysia. Earlier this month, the company appointed Kunihiko Higashi as its new Country Manager in Japan.

Keep SanRidge (SD) on your radar. I give this my speculative rating of 2

The World Is Addicted To Money Printing

Wednesday, September 22nd, 2010

Gold futures soared to new heights above $1,290 an ounce on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it may take further quantitative-easing measures to support the recovery and stave off deflation. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, came under heavy selling pressure against its major rivals in the wake of the Fed’s latest policy announcement. The Fed signalled it would be willing to take additional steps to boost the faltering U.S. economic recovery and to ward off deflation.  The central bank’s words have largely been interpreted to mean that it will likely take further quantitative-easing measures late this year. Gold prices rallied in the aftermath of the Fed statement, while the dollar fell sharply. Gold and the dollar have a strong inverse relationship; when the dollar falls, gold tends to gain. The increasing prospect for quantitative easing is supportive of gold prices on two fronts: ample liquidity tends to be supportive of asset prices and the move is raising fears of high inflation in the longer term.

England too is feeling the presures of a weakening economy. Members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee grew increasingly concerned about risks to the economic recovery when they met earlier this month, but voted overwhelmingly to keep monetary policy on hold, according to minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.

The minutes showed that the panel voted 8-1 on Sept. 9 to leave the central bank’s key lending rate unchanged at a record low 0.5% and to hold the central bank’s asset-purchase program at 200 billion pounds ($313.3 billion), where it has stood since bond purchases were completed in February.

But the minutes noted growing uncertainty among some members over the economy’s ability to maintain its momentum in the face of deficit-reduction measures planned by the government. The tone of the minutes showed “clear parallels” with the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed on Tuesday held interest rates steady, but warned that it was prepared to take action to fend off deflation. Should the global recovery take a turn for the worse, it is clear that the BOE is prepared to take further action, either through buying gilts, or through ‘credit easing’ through buying private-sector assets.

Obama & Gov. Christie Speeches

Tuesday, September 21st, 2010

Yesterday CNBC had an exclusive Town Hall meeting in a neutral environment. I’m not sure if you were all able to view this 12 PM interview with Q/A’s from ordinary Americans ranging from CEO’s, unemployed citizens, students, teachers, Hedge fund Managers. It was a mix from Main Street to Wall Street. I think President Obama handled it pretty well. Mind you I’m not a Dem nor Repub nor Tea Party. I’m neutral and support the individual who supports America and the working people. I think of the government with different parties as the same person but different face. Now, I know what happens when anyone discusses  politics, people become enraged and become very defensive along party lines and support the party itself but not the cause. I don’t want to start a raging argument in whose better, whose right or wrong. This is what happens at a family function when one talks about politics. It’s terrible.  The bottom line is we all have a common problem in today’s society and it all comes to money, but most of all it’s whats best for America and our families. We have to unite and fight the debt burden that has been brought upon us. Let’s face it, we have issues with Unions getting paid more than the private sector, Health Care issue, social programs (i.e. unemployment benefits, social security), high debt burden, and ever so high deficit. These problems weren’t created over night. I’m not saying it was entirely Bush’s fault but a combination of prior president’s policies.

Now onto President Obama’s Town Hall Exclusive. I want to highlight a few Q/A’s that I thought were handled exceptionally well. I don’t entirely believe his policies are 100% right, but again politics plays a roll into this.

A question by the CEO: IS THIS THE NEW NORM FOR MY FAMILY?: Obama answered very honestly citing the Recession ended June of 2009 but problems still remain. All ordinary Americans were getting used to living in high standards there were set artificially by rapidly appreciating home values. The truth is we still have a high unemployment rate. Problems won’t be solved overnight. We can’t simply continue to spend our way out of it like his predecessordid. We entered 2 wars, fighting a recession, and tackling a very volatile financial industry which was near collapse. We averted a Depression and losses that could have been much much worse. Yes, this recession is worse than any other recession but look at the results from it. Efficiency was improved across company balance sheets most notably in the Car industry by the Big 3.

REFORMS ARE HURTING BUSINESSES: When companies were accustomed with no sets of regulation the country almost fell into a catastrophic Depression. The financial industry was nearly insolvent. They were later Bailed out. Banks were later coined to Big to Fail. If reforms are not made now, do you as a Tax payer want to foot the bill again and passing it on the several generation after you such your kids and their kids. NO that’s why these must be done now. They weren’t popular. I’m not looking toward making these policy changes without taking the consequence of not getting re-elected. I’m looking in the special interest FOR EVERY AMERICAN, NOT FOR MY POLITICAL CAREER;I do it to correct the inefficiencies in America so our children can prosper as many other generations have done so before us. Excellent rebuttal Mr. President its for the common good for the future not for today. Companies will eventually adapt just as when FDR implemented several reforms during his presidency.

WE’RE BECOMING A SOCIALIST ECONOMY: I’ve heard this several times bymany pundits. If they were in my shoes they would have done the same thing to avert the catastrophic collapse of the financial system. The truth of the matter is change was needed. When FDR was President the pundits then; continued the rhetoric of him setting up a  Socialistic economy as well with Medicare,  unemployement benefits,social security, and reforms that have never been witnessed at such magnitude. These changes are needed to avert a recurring issue. Reforms and Regulations are needed.

TAXES: The bottom line is we need to pay down the deficit one way or another. Now 2% of America’s population don’t need the tax cuts. What Obama is proposing is to extend the cuts for the 86% of the population because they cannot afford tax hikes. I approve; families and businesses alike can adjust.

Overall I believe President Obama has a tough task in front of him. We all knew it, and we can’t expect him to be our savior by tomorrow. These problems evolved over time so it would be fair to say the solutions will take time to set in. Though I do believe the damage is too severe, we are however are slowing down the inevitable of several decades of overspending. We cannot avert inflation but we can control the magnitude of such damage.

Now onto the Republican argument. I truly like the way Gov. Christie of New Jersey is tackling the deficit issue for the state. He’s acknowledged the deficit for Medicare and Pension. He’s proposed tough cuts that had the Unions, teachers, firefighters, and police to adopt. These changes are needed and he’s taking the approach if you don’t like it we’ll only face the dire consequence in an inpredecent way that no American have ever experienced. You will thank me when you retire and you recieve the monthly pay checks from you fully funded pensions. These cuts are needed. No other state has taking a staunch posistion as Rep. Gov. Christie has done. I

SPX Breaks 1130; Dow Theorists Scream Buy

Monday, September 20th, 2010

U.S. stocks closed at their highest level in more than four months on Monday, one day ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting as encouraging financial and home builder earnings boosted confidence in the economic recovery. Bulls’ bid to extend a three-week winning streak was also helped after the group in charge of dating the starts and ends of economic downturns declared that the U.S. recession ended last summer. Monday’s declaration by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the longest U.S. recession since World War II ended in June 2009. It doesn’t mean growth is robust, but it is growth.

The DJIA rose 145.77 points, or 1.4 percent, to close at 10,753.62. The S&P 500 rose 17.12 points, or 1.5 percent, to close at 1,142.71, breaking through the crucial 1,130 barrier that has capped the index’s highs since mid-May. The move to higher levels probably reflects a sense that the economy is not as bad as some of the ‘double-dippers’ have been saying.

The market also may be moving higher for technical reasons. Once the S&P 500 broached about 1,134, 25,000 E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded, meaning a technical “buy” signal may have been triggered. The S&P’s move above the 1,130 level could sparked a “stampede of short-covering.

Gold futures settled at their third consecutive record high on speculation about further stimulative U.S. government action ahead of Tuesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee. Worries over the possibility for more economic stimulus weighed on the dollar, sending it lower against both the euro and the yen.

A close above 1130 for the S&P AND 10600 confirms a “buy” for The DOW Theorists”