Archive for June, 2011

Senate Cancels Summer Recess For Debt Ceiling

Thursday, June 30th, 2011

U.S. stocks opened incredibly higher (4the day in a row with triple digit gains) on Thursday as portfolio positioning moves on the final day of the second quarter trumped economic data, which had the government reporting a 12th straight week of jobless claims above 400,000. Today’s jobless claims number would have had to surprise on the high side to invite sellers back into the market. Fortunately for the bulls, the calendar fits into their plan to encourage risk. The DJIA up 125 points skyrocketed from the initial opening and opened the flood gates for more pressure covering from short sellers. The S&P closely watched level of 1313 was breached, but to early to indicate things have turned around. We’ll wait and see.

The U.S. Senate will cancel its planned July 4 recess next week and remain in session beginning Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said. In making the announcement Thursday on the floor of the Senate, Reid noted the need for Congress to pass legislation raising U.S. borrowing authority. But he did not say that such a bill would be ready for the Senate to debate next week. Instead, Reid, a Democrat, said Republicans were “willing to risk our economy” by standing in the way of a debt limit increase if a related deficit-reduction measure included any. This sparked buying interest even further.

QE2 To QE3?

The Federal Reserve ends its $600 billion bond-buying program, known as QE2, Thursday and has yet to offer any hints of more monetary easing to come. That hasn’t stopped investors from wondering what new tricks the central bank may have in its repertoire should the U.S. economy’s struggles continue in the second half of 2011.

Bill Gross, manager of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund, said last week the Fed may signal as soon as August that it stands ready to print more money if the economy worsens and recession starts looking like a real possibility. I personally have been saying the Fed may use the proceeds from the toxic assets it inherited named Maiden Lane, but I do not foresee the use until 2012. Traders will be disappointed as they have become addicted to money printing. They’ve become addicts to the printing presses. People get hooked on them, and before one program ends, they’re thinking about when the next one will come along.

Including QE2, the central bank’s unprecedented policies in recent years have pumped $2.3 trillion into the financial system. After a recent run of weak economic data, Fed chief Ben Bernanke said last week that “a little bit of time to see what happens would be useful” before taking more policy decisions. The end of QE2 today comes just as the U.S. economy is losing steam. Growth slowed sharply in the first quarter and data has yet to signal a quick recovery. The jobless rate remains above 9 percent. Part of the Fed’s mandate is to support full employment, so they will have to stay involved.

Of course, if the economy regains its footing, talk of QE3 will fade just as quickly, analysts say. For one thing, higher inflation may tie the Fed’s hands. Core consumer prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 1.5 percent in the year to May. That’s not alarmingly high but it is near 2 percent, the top of the Fed comfort zone, and well above a frighteningly low 0.6 percent in October. What’s more, the Fed will likely remain the biggest Treasury buyer as it reinvests principal payments from the government and mortgage debt it owns. More than $110 billion of Treasuries held on the Fed’s balance sheet are set to mature in the next 12 months, and analysts predict it could reinvest up to $190 billion from maturing mortgage-backed bonds over that time. With deflation no longer a clear and present danger, that may be enough. Political opposition to more easing is also running high.

The move last week by industrialized countries to release 60 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves may have been a miniQE3 substitute: an alternative way to take pressure off consumers and small businesses and jump-start growth.

Banks Get A Reprieve On Debt Card Fees

Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

The Federal Reserve is set to limit the fees that banks charge retailers for swiping debit cards to 21 cents, a higher cap than initially proposed. Banks succeeded in convincing the Fed that its initial proposal of 12 cents was too low after a six-month lobbying blitz. They currently charge an average of 44 cents per swipe. The Fed will formally adopt the rule Wednesday, which was required under the financial regulatory law enacted last year. The rule takes effect Oct 1, later than expected. The move to limit swipe fees pitted the nation’s largest banks and payment processors like MasterCard Inc. and Visa Inc. against Wal-Mart and retailers of all sizes. The decision to settle on a higher cap pushed up bank and network stocks in late afternoon trading on Wall Street. Visa (NYSE:V) finished the day up 15% while Master Card (NYSE:MA) was up 11.31%. All the gains were made in the last 1/2 hour of the trading day.

In addition to the 21-cent cap, the rule will also allow banks to charge a fraction more to cover the costs of fraud prevention. Banks said roughly $16 billion was at stake if the 12-cent cap took effect. That would be more than 80 percent of the $19.7 billion in debit transaction fees paid by merchants in 2009, according to the Nilson Report, which tracks the payments industry. The banks warned that they would have to make up for some revenue lost by shifting costs to consumers. Many already eliminated unrestricted free checking accounts, and some ended debit card rewards programs. Other potential actions include annual fees for using debit cards, which are already being tested in some markets.

The higher cap may lead some to avoid taking such action. Merchant groups said that their savings would be passed on to customers in the form of lower prices. But many questioned whether retailers would simply pocket the difference. Some big retailer stocks declined late in Wednesday’s trading session.

Banks and credit unions with assets under $10 billion are exempt from the rule, under the premise that they rely more on swipe fees, also known as interchange fees. But those smaller institutions argued that the exemption won’t help. That’s because it invites merchants to discriminate against their cards. It also leaves the decision on which network to use to process the transaction in the hands of merchants, who could choose to bypass networks that charge higher fees.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged small banks’ concerns during a May 12 hearing by the Senate Banking Committee. He said allowing them to charge more than big banks for processing debt card transactions could make debit cards issued by smaller banks less attractive to merchants. “There’s good reason to be concerned about it,” Bernanke said. It could result in some smaller banks “being less profitable or even failing.” Separately Wednesday, a federal appeals court in South Dakota ruled that a lower court judge was correct to deny a preliminary injunction against the fee limits taking effect.

The case challenging the regulations’ constitutionality was brought in October by Minnesota-based TCF National Bank, the unit of TCF Financial Corp., considered the first bank to offer free checking accounts. TCF is among the banks that no longer offer free checking without requirements such as using direct deposit or maintaining minimum balances. In a twist, TCF’s attorneys argued that the provision of the law exempting small banks and credit unions gave those unaffected banks an unfair advantage.

Muddy Waters At It Again (NASDAQ:SPRD)

Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

I want to share this with the community as I feel should be made public not only to day traders or traders alike but to the general public. Lately many Emerging economies have been rushing to join the US exchanges. This is of course is good but bad in a way if they do not adhere to SEC accounting regulations. Many investors could potentionally be hurt if they’re falling prey to hot Indian, Chinese, or other hot market stocks.  Today I witnessed once again, a negative report targeting a Chinese Company trading on the NASDAQ with a market cap of $200 million. I’ve witnessed this poor company lose almost 50% of it’s market cap due to a report that negatively or quite prescriptively bravely calling out improper accounting practices by yet another Chinese company listed on the US exchanges. It’s either the SEC is missing something within their due diligence or Chinese firms are falsely smudging their numbers. I’d like to share my opinion in both positive & negative aspects of this wild ride in this stock. In any event this action sure damaged many stock holders in a company named Spreadtrum Communications (Nasdaq:SPRD); a fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops and markets baseband processor, radio frequency (RF) transceiver and turnkey solutions for the wireless communications and mobile television market. The Company offers a portfolio of integrated baseband processor solutions that support a range of wireless communications standards, including global system for mobile communications (GSM), general packet radio service (GPRS) and time division synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA), an international third generation (3G) standard for wireless communications promoted by China. Its solutions also offer a range of multimedia capabilities, such as television-out, moving picture experts group layer-3 audio (MP3) digital audio playback, touchscreen, JAVA acceleration, motion picture experts group 4 (MPEG4) and 64-channel polyphonic ringtone playback. In June 2011, the Company acquired 8.44% of MobilePeak Holdings, Ltd.

Let me give you the play by play in short form. The Muddy Waters report found below was released @ 11:20 AM. Blocks of 444,000 shares were sold. For the next 27 mins the stock was in a fire sale and badly damaged. By 11:47 almost 11 million shares were exchanged or mostly sold short. In that 27 minute period, SPRD went from $13.29 to $8.59. That’s a 54% gain on the short!!! That was a quick gain in short time. But ironically it’s not over….the stock begins to turn back up. From these levels, I thought it was oversold, so it was bound to recoup some losses. From $8.59, SPRD caressed the weighted moving average to $ 9.32 then dropped back down to $8.80. I figured it would settle around these levels…..but it continued it’s upward bounce to the 100 day moving average. By 12:10, SPRD had bounced from $8.80 to $11.44 resulting a 30% gain. An advanced trader with the proper tools could have scalped anywhere from 20% to 75% gains in 20-50 minutes. That’s a lot of money to be made by a fast acting trader. With trades like these, you have to be thankful of this one time opportunity. These don’t come often, believe me!!!

As we all know, one who gains is another’s lost. There’s always 2 sides to the stock market game. Think about the investors or institution that own this stock. What if they had placed a stop limit order….OUCH!!!! That’s a terrible loss. You think it would be fair, for a known short -seller to make such an announcement knowingly this will significantly pressure the stock downward. Let’s take for example the Hedge Fund investor named John Paulson experienced with Sino-Forest. Muddy Waters was again the culprit in this damaging find more descriptively found below. Muddy Water’s report cost John Paulson’s Fund to lose $500 million. You think Mr. Paulson will choose Mr. Block to be his advisor, because apparently his team messed this one up pretty badly. This is what happens when you’re on the wrong side of the trade.

In the options Market, traders were also hurt. Opening investors blitzed bearish puts that grant the right to sell shares for prices such as $9, $10, $11 by the July expiration. Spreadtrum’s options volume soared to the highest level on record, Trade Alert data showed. Still, those who reached for exceptionally bearish Spreadtrum positions were stung by the stock’s quick snap-back. Buyers of $5 July puts paid an average of $1.50 for the contracts early in the session. Those contracts fell in value to just 30 cents later in the afternoon. More than 124,000 Spreadtrum puts changed hands versus 42,000 calls, which grant the right to buy shares.

Is Mr. Block of Muddy Waters a Victor or Villain or is the SEC too slow to react?

Read this report issued by Muddy Waters run by Carson C. Block. It was an open letter to SPRD Chairman Li. Apparently this report was released to Reuters which then sparked a massive fire sale. To be exact, a 1565%  increase from avg daily volume. See the chart above. Actual report in it’s entirety is found here.

So who is Carson Block? Muddy Waters describes the 34-year-old as “an entrepreneur who’s practiced law and pioneered an industry in China.” He founded a company called Love Box Self Storage, “a near luxury service for high income Chinese consumers. Prior to his entrepreneur days, he was an attorney for Jones Day in Shanghai, where he acted primarily for foreign clients involved in direct investment and M&A in China. He speaks Madrin, and after practicing as a lawyer for one year (he said originally he thought he’d never practice after law school), he switched into research for hedge funds and for his father, who’s an investor. He’s also an adjunct professor of the Chicago-Kent College of Law, where he graduated with a JD, and teaches an overseas program in Shanghai for the school. He earned a B.S in Business Administration from the Marshall School of Business at USC. He founded Muddy Waters in June of 2010 and told Barron’s that what he does, in one sentence is: “exposing what I believe are substantial frauds before they suck up more money from investors.”

Here’s a video of Mr. Block on a CNBC interview on April 12, 2011.

Muddy Waters The Chinese have an old proverb, “浑水摸鱼” (muddy waters make it easy to catch fish). In other words, opacity creates opportunities to make money. This way of thinking has been part of Chinese culture for centuries, and it is institutionalized in the modern PRC. Western investors and their regulatory systems are inherently unprepared for muddy waters environments. Moreover, Harvard-educated Chinese analysts based in New York usually have little more in common with Chinese company managers than you do. As a result, many sub-par Chinese companies find ways to game the system and trade at inflated values. At the same time, a number of well-run and well-positioned companies are under-appreciated because their managements, often abandoned by RTO or IPO sponsors, are awkward to foreign investors.

Reuters Reporting below

Muddy Waters Research, a firm specializing in finding Chinese companies it believes are frauds, shorts the firms’ shares and publicizes the charges on its website. Muddy Waters first gained prominence last June with a scathing report against Orient Paper Inc (ONP.A), which it called a “fraud” that had overstated its 2009 revenue by about 40 times. The company disputed the allegations, but the stock, which closed at $8.41 the day before the report, now trades at $3.71, down 56.5 percent. All of the relatively small firm’s subsequent reports had similarly outsized impacts — a source of controversy to critics.

“If something doesn’t work out … these guys could have a situation where they went after a company and made money but couldn’t substantiate their claims,” said Boyd, who has also written critical reports, but does not hold positions in the companies he writes about. The Muddy Waters reports “were brilliantly reported and laid out, but you can never get past the fact that they’re doing this for money,” Roddy Boyd, the editor of thefinancialinvestigator.com in Wilmington, North Carolina told Reuters last month.

Others are not as glowing. Drew Bernstein, the chairman of Orient Paper’s audit committee and co-managing partner of Marcum Bernstein & Pinchuk in New York, last month said the Muddy Waters report was full of “enormous allegations” that were untrue and that a lawsuit against the firm was probably justified. But so far Muddy Waters’ influence has only grown with each subsequent report. Duoyuan Global Water Inc (DGW.N) slumped 29.3 percent from its close before the April 4 report until April 19, when its shares were halted. They have not traded since. RINO International (RINO.PK) plummeted 96.5 percent, from $15.52 before the report to 55 cents currently, while China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME.PK) is down 91.8 percent to $1.28. Both stocks were delisted by the Nasdaq following the charges and currently trade on the pink sheets.So far it has made money on its first six bets.

Many would envy the firm’s record as even the most experienced short sellers have a number of misses before they hit the jackpot. And even when stock watchers are correct about a company being overvalued, it can sometimes take the market several years to catch up to the prediction. Muddy Waters’ track record is based on a Reuters analysis of the published research that is available on the firm’s website. It is not clear whether Muddy Waters or its director of research Carson Block have made other research calls or taken other positions. The target prior to SPRD was the infamous Sino-Forest Corp(TRE.TO), a forestry plantation company whose shares fell 65 percent after the firm, led by Block, accused the company of theft and fraud. Sino-Forest fought back on Monday, accusing Muddy Waters of defamation and saying it was mulling its legal options. The response helped shares rise more than 50 percent to C$8.01, though they remains well below its last close before the report at C$18.21.

Of the five companies Muddy Waters is known to have advised investors to sell, with all asserting some level of accounting irregularities, two have been delisted from the NASDAQ and one has not traded since April. Of the two that continue to trade, neither has come anywhere close to approaching the levels they changed hands at before the reports. But a portfolio comprised of these six companies would be up an estimated 66.9 percent if the investor had shorted the shares and bought in the day before each report was issued. If the trader had leveraged their bets using options, the returns could be even larger. ”If you’re going to make accusations of fraud the way Muddy Waters does, you’re going to have to be correct” to be effective,said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management in New York. “You need a greater standard of care.” Block agrees, saying short-sellers have to be accurate in their reports because false claims would diminish their credibility and limit their influence on shares, a major revenue source. The firm discloses that it shorts the stocks it covers but does not disclose the amount it has in assets under management.

Partial Open Letter below

Dear Chairman Li:
Muddy Waters, LLC has begun researching SPRD, and we have taken a short position in
it.  (Please see our disclaimer on the last page.)  We have identified a number of issues in
SPRD’s filings, and we believe that there is a high risk of material misstatement in the
reported financials since the time of Dr. Ping Wu’s resignation.  Our concerns are gravest
regarding 2010 and 2011 numbers.
We are writing you an open letter so that our concerns and hopefully your responses are
transparent to SPRD shareholders.  The following letter contains questions relating to
many of our areas of concern.  Should you send us your response, we are happy to
disseminate it.
I. SPRD reported that revenue increased 229.6% in 2010, after generally being
flat in 2007-2009.   Can you please explain the sales increase in light of the
following 2009 management changes:
o Founder Ping Wu resigned as CEO in February 2009.   According to a
July 2010 interview in a respected business publication,
1 Mr. Wu resigned because the board had lost confidence in him.  SPRD’s sales cycle is four
to nine months
2 and the turnaround began almost immediately after Mr. Wu resigned – revenue grew quarter over quarter in Q3 2009 by 136.6%.
Therefore, the improved sales pipeline would have been evident under Mr. Wu.
 Why would the board have lost confidence in Mr. Wu when the sales pipeline was so promising?
o We note that CFO Richard Wei resigned in April 2009, which was one month before SPRD completed a $44 million financing.
 Because it would be unusual to fire a CFO during the financing process, is it fair to assume that he chose to leave?
 If “yes”, why would he have left with such strong sales in the pipeline?
II. MediaTek (2454.TW) had approximately 90% of the mainland China mobile
handset chip market in 2009.  Mobile handset chips are by far its largest
revenue source – currently accounting for more than 70% of revenue.
3
Estimates now place MediaTek’s mainland market share at only 70%, with
SPRD at 20% (an increase of about 15 percentage points).  (It appears that
these estimates are based in part on SPRD’s reported numbers.)  However,
MediaTek reported that its 2010 revenue decreased by 1.4%.
For MediaTek, which relies heavily on mobile handset chips, to have reported
a sales decline of only 1.4% while seemingly losing 15 percentage points of
market share to SPRD, the mainland China market for mobile handset chips
must have grown substantially in 2010.
However, we note that both SPRD and MediaTek faced headwinds as
mainland China authorities cracked down in 2010 on gray market handset
manufacturers.  At the high end of the market, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:
QCOM) only grew its 2010 revenue 5.5%.
By how much did SPRD’s mainland China markets (by product type) grow in
2010?
III. SPRD’s disclosure related to its 2010 revenue is unhelpful and opaque.  The
2009 20-F disclosed RF transceiver and baseband semiconductor sales figures.
However, the 2010 20-F does not discuss sales of these products.  Instead the
2010 20-F discusses the percentage gains for sales of all bundled
semiconductors (without ascribing any dollar values).
We take issue with the opaque 2010 disclosure because we believe that issuers
should provide “apples to apples” information in successive periods, and the
2010 disclosure is frankly vague and unhelpful.
What were 2010 sales of RF transceivers, baseband semiconductors, and any
other products SPRD began selling in 2010?
IV. SPRD’s lack of any cash income tax payment in 2010 is inconsistent with
prior years as well as the PRC’s provisional tax payment requirements.  The
table below shows SPRD’s pre-tax income, income tax provisions, and cash
taxes paid for 2008 – 2010.The PRC Enterprise Income Tax law requires that companies pay provisional
income tax on a monthly or quarterly basis.  Companies must file a
provisional tax return within 15 days of the close of the month or quarter
along with the provisional payment.
If SPRD generated $75.3 million in pre-tax profit in 2010, why didn’t it make
any cash tax payments?
V. The near simultaneous turnover in 2009 among SPRD’s CFO, audit
committee, and auditor is troubling.  In October 2009, SPRD’s CFO, David
Wu, resigned after only four months in the role.  This was the second CFO in
2009 to resign.  In September 2009, audit committee member Ken Lu resigned
from the board.  In September 2009, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu was
“removed” as auditor, and replaced by another Big Four auditor,
PriceWaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian.
Given that the turnover occurred while SPRD was in the midst of a stunning
turnaround, did the resignations and removal have anything to do with
discomfort about SPRD’s accounting?  If not, what were the reasons each
resigned (or was removed in the case of Deloitte)?

New Jersey Files For A Bridge Loan

Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

The state has been digging around in its pockets, worried about having enough cash to pay the bills. Gov. Chris Christie has turned to J.P. Morgan Chase to negotiate a line of credit worth up to $2.25 billion that could be tapped in the coming weeks. This is the second time in three years that New Jersey has pulled together this type of a backup plan. Former Gov. Jon Corzine, a Democrat, received a $2 billion line of credit from J.P. Morgan Chase in 2009. But he never used it, thanks to last-minute tax revenue. At the time, Republicans criticized him for the move. State Sen. Kevin O’Toole, now a close ally of fellow Republican Christie, blasted Corzine for “taking on more debt to pay off old debt.”

To understand why New Jersey needs this line of credit, it’s helpful to take a step back and look at state budgeting:

New Jersey’s budget runs from July 1 to June 30. The state’s spending, in theory, is spelled out in the budget passed by the Legislature and signed by the governor. In real life, however, the state’s income (read: taxes) and its bills don’t have a cycle that’s simple to manage. The state makes most of its money through income taxes and other levies in the 4th quarter, which runs from April through June. Traditionally, New Jersey’s biggest expenses have fallen in the first quarter, or July through September, when the state sends billions of dollars in checks to homeowners, seniors, disabled people and renters in the form of property tax rebates.

In its current situation, the state doesn’t seem to have any immediate expenses. (Property tax rebates aren’t the problem — they don’t go out as checks anymore, and Christie has reduced the program and barred some people from getting rebates.) Instead, Christie is trying to deal with the state’s tight cash position. Usually, there’s surplus money in various accounts or even built into the budget that the state can use as a cushion. During the recession, however, the surplus has been minuscule. Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff said New Jersey will end the year with a $696 million balance when it closes out the year on June 30 from a roughly $30 billion budget. The new line of credit, if it’s tapped, will be used to hold the state over at least until it can do its usual round of short-term borrowing later in the summer, which it pays back late the next spring.

Whitney, who has predicted a wave of municipal defaults this year worth upwards of $100 billion, said the move in the Garden State is not highly significant by itself. But she said it is “endemic of the larger issues” when taken in conjunction with how much trouble the state and others like it across the nation will have in meeting their basic debt and pension obligations.

“That’s what’s really going to hurt. So the pain of the states is just upon us,” said Whitney, famous for her warning about Citigroup’s exposure to subprime loans back in 2007, a call that would foretell the ensuing financial crisis. “What you’ll see now is as the states are submitting final budgets, you’ll see the real pain at the municipal level start happening July 1. That will intensify and that’s where you’ll see the fallout.”

The financing option that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is exploring would entail a short-term loan that the state would use to bolster its tight cash position so it can pay bills once the new fiscal year starts. Whitney continues to stick to her prediction that a swarm of municipal defaults looms, even in the face of virulent criticism from those who see municipal financing improving. When she first made the call on “60 Minutes” in January, the municipal debt market sold off. Since then, it has recovered and municipal bond funds have shown modest inflows for the past few weeks, with $128 million net coming in for the week ended June 22, according to Lipper.

S&P Holds 1260; Is This A Head Fake

Monday, June 27th, 2011

The indices added an average of 1.05% on breadth that was just shy of 2:1 to the positive. Most notably, the S&P held the 1260 mark or the significant 200 day moving average. Since that moving average represents the tipping point for many technicians between a bull and a bear market, stocks’ continued refusal to break below it considered by those technicians as a bullish development. Is the rotation to end of quarter window dressing? That is a practice in which money managers buy additional shares of their winning stocks into quarter’s end, in an attempt to improve the appearance of their quarterly statements sent to clients. Each major sector advanced, but it was tech, financials and consumer discretionary that led to the upside. All in all, it was a solid day for the bulls, but again, there’s little reason to think that what we saw was anything more than a technical reaction after three days of losses pushed the market back towards recent lows. We’ll see if some end-of-quarter positioning holiday-style trading can act as a tailwind here and help the market take some initial steps at repairing recent damage, but so far, there’s been no reason to think that a bottom is in. The uptrend by the Bulls is to continue, but for how long?

The big news to watch for this week will be the votes in the Grecian Parliament on Wednesday and Thursday, the outcome of the stalemate between the White House and Congress over deficit reduction and several significant economic reports sprinkled throughout the week for housing, consumer confidence, unemployment and manufacturing.

Tuesday: April Case/Shiller Housing Report, June Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: May Pending Home Sales

Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims

Friday: June Consumer Sentiment, June ISM, May Construction Spending, June Motor Vehicle Sales

These news could generate catalysts that drive money out of bonds and back into the stock market.

Read S&P Technical Marks here

Incomes Growing At A Negative Pace

Monday, June 27th, 2011

When taking into account of inflation rising with the likes of commodities gaining at a rapid pace, incomes actually grew at a negative pace. Consumers have been less inclined to spending which makes up 35% of US GDP. Consumer spending was flat in May , government data showed Monday, as higher prices at the gas pump and a weak labor market made consumers reluctant to open their wallets. This was the weakest reading in almost a year. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation declined 0.1% for the second straight month in May, the Commerce Department said.

Meanwhile, personal income rose 0.3% in May. May’s figures came in mixed in terms of market expectations. Spending rose less than the 0.1% expected. Growth in both income and spending were revised lower for April. Spending was cut to an increase of 0.3% from the initial estimate of a 0.4% increase, while income was revised to 0.3% growth from the 0.4% gain previously estimated. The personal consumption expenditure index, which Federal Reserve officials say is a more accurate gauge of inflation than the better-known consumer price index, increased 0.2% on the month. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index is up 2.5%. The core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in May, the largest gain since October 2009. The 12-month core rate was up 1.2%, still well below the Fed’s implicit target of just below 2%. Adjusted for inflation, after-tax incomes rose 0.1% in May.

While the report fits in with other data illustrating the loss of momentum in the economy, falling gasoline prices should lift spending and therefore growth in the third quarter. Gasoline prices have dropped significantly from their peak of $4.02 a gallon in early May. The U.S. savings rate rose to 5.0% in May from 4.9% in the prior two months.

US Revised Q1 Economic Data, Europe News

Friday, June 24th, 2011

U.S. stock futures flat lined Friday, with concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis and the Italian banking sector keeping a lid on gains ahead of economic data. Trading in Italian bank stocks was temporarily suspended Friday after a sudden drop in share prices. Italy’s FTSE MIB index was last down 0.5%. In US Economic news, the Commerce Department said durable goods orders increased 1.9 percent after a revised 2.7 percent drop in April, which was previously reported as a 3.6 percent fall. Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders to rise 1.5 percent last month.

European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Friday confirmed the appointment of Mario Draghi, head of the Bank of Italy, to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as president of the European Central Bank. Draghi will take the helm of the Frankfurt-based institution, which sets monetary policy for the 17-nation euro zone, when Trichet’s non-renewable eight-year term expires on Oct. 31. In a statement, the European Council said Draghi’s term would run from Nov. 1, 2011, to Oct. 31, 2019.

Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing and the report, which showed improvement across the board, pointed to underlying strength in a sector that has powered the economic recovery, even though recent regional factory data has shown some signs of fatigue. Orders were a buoyed by a 36.5 percent jump in volatile aircraft bookings. Boeing received 27 aircraft orders, up from just two in April, according to information posted on the plane maker’s website. Motor vehicle orders rose 0.6 percent after plunging 5.3 percent the previous month, suggesting some improvement in auto production, which has been hit by a shortage of parts from Japan. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.6 percent after a revised 0.4 percent decline in April, previously reported as a 1.6 percent fall. Economists had expected this category to rise 0.9 percent. Outside of transportation, orders for machinery, primary metals, capital goods, computers and electronic products all rose. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, rebounded to increase 1.6 percent last month after a revised 0.8 percent fall in April.

GDP Growth Pegged at 1.9%

U.S. economic growth was revised modestly higher in the first quarter to account for a slightly faster pace of restocking by businesses and a smaller increase in imports, but remained anemic. Gross domestic product growth rose at annual rate of 1.9 percent, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate, up from the previously estimated 1.8 percent. The revision was in line with economists’ expectations. The economy expanded at a 3.1 percent rate in the fourth quarter. Growth has remained tepid so far in the second quarter, but both economists and the Federal Reserve are cautiously hopeful that activity will pick-up in the third quarter. First-quarter growth was supported by stronger than previously estimated accumulation of business inventories, slower imports and a smaller decline in residential construction, while the increase in business spending was revised lower. Business inventories increased $55.7 billion, above last month’s $52.2 billion estimate. The change in inventories added 1.31 percentage points to GDP growth. Business investment rose at a 2.0 percent rate instead of 3.4 percent as outlays on equipment and software were not as strong as previously estimated. Consumer spending—which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity—grew at an unrevised 2.2 percent rate.

Markets Continues Downward Spiral

Thursday, June 23rd, 2011

Stocks tumbled at the open Thursday, with the Dow below 12,000, after weekly jobless claims posted a surprise gain and following the Federal Reserve’s tepid economic outlook. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that the pace of the economic recovery is slower than expected, but offered no hint about plans for new stimulus measures.

New claims for unemployment benefits posted a surprise gain last week, according to the Labor Department. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000, up from prior week’s figure of 420,000. Economists expected claims to edge up to 415,000 from a previously reported count of 414,000, according to a survey from Reuters. New home sales for May, due at 10 am ET is expected to show a dip to 310,000 from 323,300 recorded in April.

Meanwhile, oil prices tumbled after the U.S. DOE announced it will release 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of the overall International Energy Agency’s release of 60 million barrels per day. U.S. light, sweet crude slid near $91 a barrel, while London Brent crude fell below $110. The oil news is actually good for the economy long-term, but short-term, it’s going to hurt the Dow because of Chevron and ExxonMobil make up more than 10 percent of the Dow.

SCO- hedge against Oil drop

USO-short oil

SKF-hedge against XLF drop

10 year treasuries continues to fall which means yield increases.

2011 GDP Growth Estimates Slashed

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

Live coverage of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference, where he is expected to be pressed on interest rates and growth prospects for the world's largest economy.

U.S. stocks snapped a four-day winning streak Wednesday, stumbling late in the session after the Federal Reserve issued a cautious economic outlook just days before it ends its asset-buying program. The DJIA finished down 80.34 points, to 12,109.67, while the S&P dropped 8.38 points. Federal Reserve officials are more pessimistic about prospects for economic growth and employment than they were two months ago. The markets started the day in negative territory, clambering to a modest gain before falling again after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrapped up an afternoon news conference. Markets began eroding once Bernanke finished speaking. In summary three main points, Inflation to weaken; unemployment to remain very high,and low interest rates to remain.

In its post-meeting statement, the Fed downgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy’s performance, but gave no indication it intends to take new steps to boost growth and jobs. Instead, officials said they are sticking with plans to end the purchase of $600 billion in U.S. Treasurys on June 30 and to keep short-term interest rates near zero. The Fed also said the slower pace of recovery was “likely to be temporary,” citing supply-chain disruptions caused by the Japanese earthquake earlier in the year. But in his comments, Bernanke said there was “uncertainty” over how much of the slowdown was permanent. The only thing he made clear at the press conference that wasn’t clear previously is that he’s acknowledging the slowdown is not entirely due to temporary factors. He made it explicitly clear that there is some concern that the weakness of the financial sector, in the housing sector and the deleveraging might still be stronger than they had thought previously.

In an updated forecast, the Fed estimated Wednesday that the economy will grow between 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent this year. That’s down from its April estimate of between 3.1 percent and 3.3 percent. The downgraded revision is an acknowledgement that the economy has slowed, in part because consumers have been squeezed by higher gasoline prices. Growth at the rate the Fed is projecting won’t be enough to significantly lower unemployment, now at 9.1 percent. The Fed estimates that unemployment will still be around 8.6 percent to 8.9 percent by the end of the year. The Fed’s downward revisions were in line with private economists, who have also been scaling back their forecasts to reflect a batch of weaker-than-expected reports in recent weeks. The latest poll of top economists surveyed by The Associated Press showed they expect the unemployment rate will be 8.7 percent at year’s end, within the Fed’s new estimate, and that the economy will grow 2.6 percent this year.

The Fed chairman also said that the case for a third round of quantitative easing just isn’t there yet.

Growth would need to pick up in the second half of this year to meet even the reduced estimates of the private economists and the Federal Reserve. The economy grew at an anemic 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year. Many economists believe the economy is expanding only slightly more in the current quarter.

The central bank now sees inflation rising 2.3 percent to 2.5 percent this year, as measured by a price gauge tied to consumer spending. That compares with an April forecast that showed a higher upper range of 2.8 percent. The Fed estimates that “core” inflation, which excludes energy and food, will increase 1.5 percent to 1.8 percent. That’s slightly higher than its April forecast of an increase of 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent. The revised estimate is still within the Fed’s comfort zone for inflation. Economists closely watch core inflation, because food and energy prices are volatile.

Largest Rare-Earth Metal Mine In US Is Open

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE:MCP) announced that it has secured the final funds necessary for the capital build-out of its estimated $781 million expansion and modernization project at its flagship rare-earth oxides facility at Mountain Pass, California. The first phase of its mining project is expected to be operational by next year. When completed, the mine will be the first time in a decade that rare-earth oxides are being produced in the United States, which once lead the world in such production. The alloys and magnets that are produced from the rare-earth metals are needed for a range of today’s emerging high-tech and electronic systems and devices, from wind turbines to computer batteries to smartphones to hybrid and electric cars. Today, 95% of the rare-earth metals needed for today’s technologies are extracted in China.

When Phase 1 of the project is completed, expected to occur next year, Molycorp says its manufacturing assets will comprise the world’s first fully integrated rare earth manufacturing supply chain, producing high-purity rare earth oxides, metals, alloys, and neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets, widely used in transportation, high tech, clean energy, defense, and other industries. The re-opening of the site, closed in 2002, offers a  hedge against China’s dominance of the world’s supply of rare-earth metals. Worldwide demand for the elements reached 125,000 tons in 2010, and is expected to grow to 225,000 tons by 2015.

According to a report in The Economist, cheap labor in China ate into the profitability of the Mountain Pass site a decade ago:

“A decade ago America was the world’s largest producer of rare-earth metals. But its huge open-cast mine at Mountain Pass, California, closed in 2002—a victim mainly of China’s drastically lower labor costs. Today, China produces 95% of the world’s supply of rare-earth metals, and has started limiting exports to keep the country’s own high-tech industries supplied.”

The rare-earth element of greatest value is is neodymium, the key ingredient of super-strong permanent magnets: “Over the past year the price of neodymium has quadrupled as electric motors that use permanent magnets instead of electromagnetic windings have gained even wider acceptance,” according to The Economist. Cheaper, smaller and more powerful, permanent-magnet motors and generators have made modern wind turbines and electric vehicles viable.” The Economist adds, however, that not all electric car makers seek rare earth metals, including the Tesla Roadster, the BMW Mini-E, or AC Propulsion. “The latest carmaker to seek a rare-earth alternative is Toyota. The world’s largest carmaker is reported to be developing a neodymium-free electric motor for its expanding range of hybrid cars.”

Molycorp, research by Dahlman Rose, one of the research firms that has been most bullish on the stock, has a target on the shares to $120 to reflect potential dilution attributable to the company’s recent issue of $230 million in convertible debt. Dahlman Rose said it still views Molycorp as the best way to participate in the rare earths industry and that the company can still generate outsized returns even in a much lower price environment for rare earths. Speaking of the price environment for rare earths, the Rare Earth Stocks Index is soaring 2.9% on news that Chinese exports of the 17 elements used to make a variety of high-tech and military gadgets fell 8.8% in the first five months of this year compared against the year-earlier period. Declining Chinese exports are believed to be one of the catalysts behind the recent surge in rare earths as China controls 95% of the rare earths export market.

Chinese exports fell to 23,742 metric tons in the January-May 2011 period, the Wall Street Journalreported, citing China’s Economic Information & Agency. Beijing also reiterated its vow to remain vigilant against violators of the export quotas, the Journal reported.

Previous posts of rare-earths and MolyCorp can be found here

Molycorp’s Mine -

Products made from Rare Earths