Archive for July, 2011

Weak 2nd Quarter GDP Reading Adds Market Woes

Friday, July 29th, 2011

The U.S. economy grew less than expected in the second quarter as consumer spending barely rose, and growth braked sharply in the prior quarter, a government report showed on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 105 points, or 0.9%. The selling had been worse, with the blue chip index shedding as much as 156 points earlier in the session.

The government said the U.S. economy grew at a 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter, up from a revised 0.4% rate in the previous three months. That was far worse than expected. Investors were already unnerved after House Speaker John Boehner delayed a vote late Thursday on his plan to raise the debt ceiling. The Republican leadership has informed its members that the House will be in session this weekend. But even if Boehner’s plan does pass the House, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has promised the Democratic-controlled Senate will block it, and President Obama has threatened a veto.

In addition, fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 2.3 percent pace from 3.1 percent, indicating that the economy had already started slowing before the high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan hit. Economists had expected the economy would show signs of perking up by now with Japan supply constraints easing and gasoline prices off their high, but data has disappointed. This and the sharp downward revisions to the prior quarters suggest a more troubling and fundamental slowdown might be underway.

Data released on Friday showed the 2007-2009 recession was much more severe than prior measures had found, with economic output declining a cumulative of 5.1 percent instead of 4.1 percent. The annual revisions of U.S. GDP data from the Commerce Department showed the economy contracted at an annual average rate of 0.3 percent between 2007 and 2010. Output over that stretch had previously been estimated to have been flat. The economy needs to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent or better on a sustained basis to chip away at the nation’s 9.2 percent unemployment rate.

In other economic data, the Chicago purchasing managers index fell to a reading of 58.8 in July. Economists had expected a reading fo 58.0.

S&P Update – Should One Enter Markets To Invest

Update to my May 23rd Report here

Markets have been up and down in such volatile fashion. Trading gains at times have been washed out in all directions. We’ll have a massive 4% gain in the S&P in four days to have it all returned the subsequent 5 days.  It has been an absolutely tough trading environment. The VIX has been trading in a tight range between $22 to $15.25 range. The volatility index as of yesterday is implying a confirmed negative for the markets. With the with GDP reading and Goldman Sachs revision of the 2011 GDP, I think analysts have been hoping for a 2ndhalf turn around. I think once production in Japan is fully back online in Q3, we may a positive read in Q4, though weaker than original estimates which subsequently opens the door for further quantitative easing aka QE3.

My suggestionas I’ve been indicating since May is to stay cash until all the political wrangling subsides. Too much market noise.

Next levels to watch are the following:

200 Day Moving Average: 1280 - Target hit this morning 7/29/11 and quickly bounced in early morning- Good Sign. We may have a relief rally first week of August since indicators are suggesting we’re oversold.

300 Day Moving Average: 1220-1225 range – This would mark the November 4, 2010 resistance and 50% retracement. I don’t anticipate markets to fall off this cliff. If we do, then we’re clearly heading to a subsequent Double-Dip recession. I find that hard to imagine entering one just yet.

Bears Maintain Upper Hand In Markets; DJIA Off 62

Thursday, July 28th, 2011

Rumors were out around 2PM EST that the House on Thursday abruptly pushed back a scheduled vote on a Republican bill to lift the U.S. debt ceiling, in a sign that the GOP was having trouble rounding up enough support to pass it. Traders locked in gains in anticipation of a failed vote. The postponed House vote will certainly rock Friday markets. S&P futures shot lower in extended trade with Wall Street traders throwing their hands up in disgust. The squabbling over the debt deal took a new turn with lawmakers postponing a critical House vote at the last minute. Investors took the developments as a sign the GOP, which is the majority party in the House, wasn’t as unified as party leaders had suggested. Market pros were wondering if conservative lawmakers that are part of the Tea Party movement were again balking at Speaker John Boehner’s bill because it didn’t contain the severe spending cuts they demand. The VIX was dow almost 7% at the low of the day to finish strongly above 3% in anticipation of a rocky Friday trading.

With so much dissent in Washington, I don’t think it’s now even remotely possible that lawmakers agree on $4 trillion in reductions over 10 years. Congress will have to work over the weekend to come up with a resolution. As I suspected it’s down to the last minute. The stock market will sell first and ask questions later. In the event of a downgrade from S&P – I don’t think we’ll see a massive leg down in Treasury’s  I think it will be a slow re-pricing. And then there are other pros who think the whole debt ceiling debacle is simply a riveting summer drama. I cannot agree even more. I think the whole thing is overdone.

5 Days Until US Debt Ceiling Default

Thursday, July 28th, 2011

Senate Democrats say they will vote against Boehner Bill. Boehner’s Bill is a 2 step process requiring another vote in 2012. Obama has indicated he was not inclined to do a temporary deal just to revisit it again next year. House GOP leaders mounted a furious bid Wednesday to win support for legislation designed to ease the nation’s debt crisis, delivering a tongue-lashing to their most conservative lawmakers and casting Thursday’s roll call as nothing less than a vote of confidence in their stewardship of the chamber.

Republicans claimed that momentum was on their side as Boehner spent Wednesday afternoon huddling with members of the 87-strong class of freshmen that delivered him the gavel after the 2010 midterm elections. But aides and lawmakers suggested the decisive votes could belong to about two dozen veterans with no strong allegiance to their leadership. Some estimates showed nearly 20 Republicans declaring their intent to oppose the bill. Republicans are under pressure from fiscally conservative advocacy groups who say the plan would do too little to control federal spending. Several organizations, including the Club for Growth, Heritage Action and the Tea Party-affiliated FreedomWorks, oppose the plan and are pressuring lawmakers to do the same.

Passage of the measure, which all 51 Senate Democrats and two independents oppose, will lead to negotiations among leaders on both sides in an attempt to avert a U.S. default. House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio gained support among fellow Republicans for his plan to raise the debt ceiling after reworking the legislation to cut $915 billion over 10 years, $65 billion more than his original approach. All of the Senate’s Democrats and independents signed a letter yesterday pledging to oppose the measure.

A Treasury official said in an e-mail earlier today the department would provide more information on how the government would operate in the absence of borrowing authority. The House of Representatives is expected to vote today around 6 p.m. for a plan the Senate expects to reject.

Reid and his Republican counterpart, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, maintained a private dialogue on developing a path to a debt-limit increase in the Senate, where bipartisan support is needed to gain the 60 votes necessary to ensure a vote on controversial legislation. There is already considerable overlap between Boehner’s plan and one that Reid offered on July 25. Reid dropped Democrats’ insistence on tax increases. His and Boehner’s proposals take as their starting points a cut of close to $1 trillion in discretionary spending cuts over 10 years, and both establish bipartisan committees to recommend future savings, with the results guaranteed a congressional vote.

Democrats would extend the debt ceiling until 2013 while making $2.2 trillion in total spending cuts, including $1 trillion from winding down the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, a savings Republicans criticized as a gimmick.

Treasuries rose, pushing 10-year note yields toward a one- week low, on concern the clash in Washington is damaging the economy. Yields on 10-year notes dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.95 percent.

DJIA Drops 200 Points As Congress Grinds Along Debt Ceiling

Thursday, July 28th, 2011

The DJIA spent a fourth straight session in the red today, down 198 points. Meanwhile, the latest round of domestic data only added insult to injury, after the Commerce Department reported a surprise drop in durable goods. The combination of a looming debt-ceiling deadline and an uninspiring economic report set the stage for another broad-market selling spree, and bolstered the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX – 22.98) — or Wall Street’s “fear barometer” — to its best finish in four months.

Stocks progressed sharply lower Wednesday, following a Fed report that said pace of economic growth moderated in many districts and amid growing uncertainty over the ongoing debt talks in Washington. The S&P 500 shed 27.05 points, or 2.03 percent, to finish at 1,304.89, falling below its 50-day moving average of 1,310. With less than a week to go until the Aug. 2 deadline, the debt debate continued as the Congressional Budget Office said budget plans by Senate Democrats and House Republicans wouldn’t reduce the deficit by as much as promised. Meanwhile, the Treasury rejected claims from a recent Barclays report that said the debt deadline may not be Aug. 2 but around Aug. 10 instead.

Next level were watching on the S&P is 1,250, but we could see the index dip as low as near 1,230.

Gold pulled back after rising to a new high above $1,625 an ounce, marking the sixth time it’s reached record levels in two weeks. Oil prices slipped to session lows after a government report showed that crude inventories unexpectedly jumped for the first time in nine weeks. U.S. light, sweet crudesettled below $98 a barrel, while London Brent crude slipped under $118. Treasury prices extended losses after the government auctioned $35 billion in five-year notes at a high yield of 1.580 percent and a bid-to-cover of 2.62. The government is expected to auction $29 billion in seven-year notes Thursday.

Market Movers This Week:

THURSDAY: Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, Kansas City Fed survey, Richmond Fed Lacker speaks, 7-yr note auction, San Francisco Fed Williams speaks, money supply; Earnings from AstraZeneca, Credit Suisse, DuPont, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Sanofi, Bristol-Myers Squibb, DR Horton, Kellogg, Motorola Solutions, Sprint, Time Warner Cable, Chesapeake Energy, MetLife, Motorola Mobility, Starbucks
FRIDAY: Employment cost index, GDP, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, farm prices; Earnings from Chevron, Merck

6 Days Left For Debt Ceiling; FXY-Yen Hits New High

Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

House Speaker John Boehner is rewriting his bill to lift the debt ceiling and cut spending after the Congressional Budget Office ruled his plan would have only cut spending by $850 billion over 10 years rather than the $1.2 trillion the Republican sought. The House may end up voting on the bill on Thursday rather than the initially scheduled Wednesday vote. On Tuesday, the head of Keidanren, Japan’s biggest business lobby, called for joint Group of Seven intervention to stem the yen’s gains as it heads back towards the record high of 76.25 hit days after the March 11 earthquake. The Australian dollar traded at $1.1041 after the data, just off a fresh high of $1.1062 — its highest level since it was floated in 1983.

“We promised that we will cut spending more than we increase the debt limit — with no tax hikes — and we will keep that promise,” Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said. Boehner’s plan — and a competing Democratic bill in the Senate  are are the only live bills this week that would increase the debt ceiling by Aug. 2. The CBO said the bulk of deficit savings under Boehner’s original bill — $710 billion — would result from caps on discretionary spending. The other big chunk of savings — $136 billion — would come from reduced interest costs on the debt. Almost as soon as he proposed it on Monday, the bill came under fire from the most conservative members of his caucus and some conservative groups for not going far enough to reflect the principles of the Cut, Cap and Balance Act, which the House passed last week. Cut, Cap and Balance would, among other things, cut total spending by $111 billion for fiscal year 2012. It would also require a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution that would cap total annual spending at 18%. The spending caps in Boehner’s bill would result in small savings in the early years, but the savings would grow over time. In addition, the Boehner bill would require that both chambers of Congress vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment but doesn’t require that one be enacted.

Boehner is in a tough spot. He recognizes that the debt limit must be raised to prevent the country from defaulting on its obligations. But he is also representing the will of his most conservative members, who have not yielded in their demands for large, immediate spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. That has put him at odds with Obama, who has pushed for a debt reduction package that also includes a revenue component.

Japan

Japan’s policymakers, alarmed that the yen’s persistent climb could derail the nation’s economic recovery, see solo market intervention as an increasingly viable option. The yen scaled four-month highs against the dollar on the back of market fears of a U.S. government debt downgrade, prompting warnings from Japanese officials and executives that an unchecked yen rise was hurting the export-reliant economy. Markets are virtually ruling out a repeat of the coordinated intervention that the G7 carried out in the quake’s aftermath, but investors are gearing up for a possible solo Tokyo act, primed by official warnings.

Growing market worries about the possibility of a U.S. debt default, coupled with Europe’s debt problems, have been fuelling the yen’s gains as investors seek the relative safety of Japan’s currency. That clouds the outlook for Japan’s economy, which is just emerging from the post-disaster slump and is relying on its exports to reignite growth. But with the currency mainly driven by overseas developments beyond Japan’s control, some market players are skeptical whether Tokyo would risk acting alone, especially given uncertainty about the outcome of U.S. debt talks ahead of an Aug. 2 deadline. Some policymakers share such concerns, but others say the prominence of external factors in the yen’s rise is no excuse to hold off on intervention, and worry that Japan’s economy is still too weak to withstand the pain from yen gains. The yen’s climb also puts pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy further in the hope of pushing down bond yields and reining in the currency. Japan last intervened on its own in September 2010, its first market foray in six years. The BOJ eased monetary policy in combination with both the latest solo and coordinated interventions.

Australia

Australia’s most recent quarterly consumer price index inflation reading exceeded economist forecasts, data out Wednesday showed, propelling the Australian dollar to a fresh record high. Second-quarter consumer price index inflation hit 0.9%, compared to a rise of 1.6% in the March quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported. The CPI reading exceeded the 0.8% reading that economists had expected. Fruit prices jumped 26.9% while gasoline prices climbed 4% in the quarter, the ABS said. CPI rose 3.6% on an annual basis, up from a rise of 3.3% recorded for the March quarter. The Australian dollar traded at $1.1041 after the data, just off a fresh high of $1.1062 — its highest level since it was floated in 1983.

Australian stocks extended early losses immediately after the data, with the S&P/ASX 200 index trading down 0.4%, as investors tried to assess the likelihood of another interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank has a mandate to contain inflation. The RBA has been on hold since last November, with its current cash rate at 4.75%. It meets next week to decide on interest rates.

Soro’s To Return Investors Money

Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

Global financier George Soros, best known for breaking the Bank of England, is ending his career as a hedge fund manager and returning money to outside investors in his $25.5 billion firm. He will return roughly $1 billion to outside investors and turn Soros Fund Management into a family office.

Keith Anderson, who has been Soros’ chief investment officer since 2008, will leave the firm. In a letter to investors, Soros’ two sons cited impending industry regulation as a reason for returning the money the fund still oversaw for outsiders, which is a relatively small percentage of the roughly $25 billion Soros oversees. They made the decision because new financial regulations would have made it necessary for the firm to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by March 2012 if it continued to manage money for outsiders. Hedge funds with more than $150 million in assets will be required under the new law to report information about their investors and employees, the assets they manage, potential conflicts of interest, and their activities outside of fund advising. The firm would also be subject to inspections by the SEC.

Because the firm has overseen mostly family assets since 2000, when outside money accounted for about $4 billion, the sons decided made more sense to run the firm as a family business.

At a time where many men of his age have retired, Soros, who will soon be 81, joins a growing list of wealthy and well-established fund managers to reconfigure the business. Carl Icahn another long-time fund manager recently also returned money to outsiders. But there is also a growing number of younger fund managers who are preferring to closing up shops to manage only their own money as new regulations threaten to dramatically change the $2 trillion hedge fund industry. Stanley Druckenmiller, Soros’ long-time deputy who helped engineer Soros’ winning bet against the British pound in 1992, closed up his shop as did Chris Shumway, who was mentored by another industry great, Julian Robertson.

Debt Ceiling: Obama & Boehner Play Chicken With US Economy

Monday, July 25th, 2011

US’s “AAA” rating may just be history as Boehner & Obama play chicken with the US economy. President Barack Obama urged congressional leaders to give him a “fair compromise” about cutting the deficit and raising the U.S. debt ceiling in “the next few days.” Speaking from the White House East Room Monday night, Obama hailed a plan from Senate Democratic leaders that would cut the deficit by $2.7 trillion, and said the U.S. risks losing its AAA credit rating. Obama said the entire world is watching and the debt limit should be raised before Aug. 2. The future we seek for ourselves is in jeopardy… Obama urged to contact your congress representative to advocate your choice.

The dollar initially fell against the yen as Obama spoke, to ¥77.96 from ¥78.24 before the speech, but it pared losses as he finished his remarks. The greenback resumed against the yen its fall as U.S. House Speaker John Boehner spoke, supporting a Republican plan to end the debt stand-off. The worst case scenario for the U.S. dollar is not a lack or agreement, but a short-term solution that appears to be favored by some in the U.S. Congress may not be that much better, as it would effectively be seen as ‘kicking the can down the road. DJIA futures down 0.3%; S&P 500 futures off 0.5% after Obama, Boehner talk.

Asian shares eased off early highs on Tuesday, after the U.S. president said that the current debt stalemate in the U.S. was a dangerous game and could reduce the country’s appeal to investors. Asian shares had declined on Monday after U.S. lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on how to tackle the nation’s debt pile ahead of a deadline to raise its debt ceiling. As the clock ticked toward the Aug. 2 deadline, U.S. President Barack Obama also said late Monday in Washington that the current debt standoff was a “dangerous game” although he also added that he was confident a compromise would be reached in Congress before the deadline.

US Debt Gridlock Rattles Asia & Europe Markets

Monday, July 25th, 2011

The DJIA is pointing to a 100 point slump in the early mornings to bring equities in US negative territory. President Barack Obama and Congress failed to reach a debt-ceiling deal, hiking fears of a U.S. downgrade. Folks as predicted, we’re going to the final minute for passage. The debt ceiling must be raised by Aug. 2 to avoid default, and ratings agencies have said they also want to see a serious plan for deficit reduction or the triple A credit rating of the United States will be in jeopardy. The fractious impasse in Washington’s debt talks puts markets on the defensive and will likely lead to heightened volatility in the week ahead.

During the weekend, talks between Obama and Republicans in Congress failed to yield a plan to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. With the world’s largest economy now just eight days away from running out of money, once again we’re left looking at the unthinkable proposition that Washington is pushed to default on interest repayments and the whole concept of the risk-free rate of return is thrown into turmoil.

We still have a lot of volatility and investors are nervous about that. They’re nervous about the coverage they hear on our debt ceiling, and they hear a Social Security payment might be missed. That doesn’t comfort anyone … Those things all add to stress in the markets. 2008 wasn’t that long ago. That kind of market is fresh in their minds and everyone doesn’t understand the difference between the economy we’re in today versus the economy we were in then.

The high-stakes drama comes during a week when economic data is expected to show the second quarter was another quarter of anemic growth. Friday brings the first look at second-quarter GDP and economists expect it to show sub-2 percent growth, a pace too sluggish for any meaningful job creation.

Adding to global concerns, ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Greece’s sovereign debt by three notches, just days after euro-zone countries agreed to provide another debt-support package.

Markets in Asia as well as in Europe also slumped on concerns the global debt crisis will further hit growth and demand. Japan’s Nikkei ended 0.8% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.7%. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.3% in midday trading.

Gold futures for August delivery hit a record $1,624.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Debt Issues Still Holds Markets Direction

Friday, July 22nd, 2011

Markets fell Friday modestly as traders awaited a resolution to the impasse over the US debt limit. News of a second bailout for Greece lifted overseas markets. Republicans and Democrats were far apart on a deal to raise the nation’s debt ceiling before Aug. 2, when the United States could default on its financial obligations for the first time. That uncertainty overshadowed an agreement in Europe Thursday to prop up Greece with a second financial lifeline. In early trading, the S&P fell 2.50 points, to 1,341.30. The DJIA declined 42.87, to 12,681.54. Meanwhile the Senate on Friday rejected a House-passed plan that would raise the U.S. debt ceiling and make deep cuts in government spending. Senators voted 51-46 to kill further consideration of the House bill, which would also require passage of a balanced budget amendment. House Speaker John Boehner and President Barack Obama, meanwhile, are said to be closing in on a separate deal to cut spending and raise the debt limit.

President Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner on Thursday continued to search for an ambitious $4 trillion grand bargain that would combine cuts to popular social programs revenue increases through a broad overhaul of the tax code. They remained apart on key issues, including the amount of revenue that a revamped tax code could yield, the nature of the changes to Medicare and Medicaid and the process that would guarantee that both taxes and benefit programs would in fact be overhauled.

Overseas markets rose Friday as investors warmed to the bailout plan for Greece and broader measures to address the threat of a spreading debt crisis in Europe.

Talks in Europe Thursday were more productive, with officials agreeing to a rescue package for Greece worth about $157 billion. They also decided to lower interest rates and lengthen payback terms for loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The deal resolves a political deadlock among European economic authorities about how to address Greece’s looming problems before they spread to other indebted nations and countries whose banks held bonds sold by the Greek government.

On the Earnings front

On the positive side, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares leaped after the company’s strong second-quarter results gave traders confidence that it has found direction after unexpectedly ousting its chief executive six months ago.

McDonald’s shares rose after the company said strong sales in Europe helped lift its net income and revenue past analysts’ expectations. Oil services company Schlumberger rose after the company said growth in North American drilling juiced its profits in the second quarter. The company reported earnings of 98 cents per share, beating the 85 cents analysts expected.

General Electric shares rose after the company said stronger performance by its finance unit helped push earnings past Wall Street’s expectations.

Among the laggards, Caterpillar fell after the company’s second-quarter profit rose less than Wall Street analysts expected.