Archive for July, 2011

EU Agrees On Softer Terms For Bailout

Thursday, July 21st, 2011

The European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone’s bailout fund, will provide loans to Greece, Ireland and Portugal at a lower interest rate and for longer maturities. Loans from the EFSF will be extended from 7.5 years to at least 15 years and the interest rate will be lowered from around 4.5 percent currently, in the case of Greece and Portugal, to around 3.5 percent.

World stocks and the euro rose on Thursday, after news of a plan to use the European bailout fund to make cheap loans to Greece and other heavily indebted governments in the euro zone region. The new proposal from the leaders summit in Brussels reduced fears the debt crisis would spread to other euro zone countries and led traders to cut their holdings of gold and U.S. and German government bonds. Other measures being considered include a bond buyback, but no new taxes on banks.

Some investors, however, remained worried about a possible Greek debt default, which officials at the emergency summit have not ruled out. Such a move could have repercussions across the European banking system, which holds a hefty sum of euro zone sovereign debt. An extension of the loans for Greece and increased flexibility for the EFSF to recapitalize institutions takes the heat off the ECB.

Strong company profit announcements continued to buoy stock prices on global markets, mitigating anxiety over slowing economic growth and Washington’s wrangling over the need to raise the U.S. statutory $14.3 trillion borrowing limit.

 Gold dipped below $1,600 an ounce once the EU summit proposals to combat the debt crisis were announced.

5 Stocks That Returned 9 Figures

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

I came across an interesting article from last weeks USAToday written by Matt Krantz. Kudos to Matt on a motivating article for investors. It comes to show with a little bit of luck and knowledge, a $5,000-$10,000 investment can go a long way. I was astonished on the return each stock produced a year. Yet again NFLX returned a whopping 836% from 2008, AAPL in 7 years returned an incredible 3760%, and SIRI in 3 years returned 2,080%. Just imagine the possibilities that came in plentiful. It’s a poor man’s dream come true. Do you have what it takes? I know no one is a perfect stock picker, and if you are, you should be sitting very pretty right now. My personal best has been by far SIRI. I’m not going to lie, but I was extremely wretched by the 80% drop the day rumor on verge of declaring bankruptcy. By sheer stupidity and luck, I managed to reinvest a small portion of my previous winners in this strickened stock. What was my rational – Howard Stern. He’s fully vested with hundreds of millions of shares so why not. I wasn’t hurting more than he was. I know, dumb rational and before you know it, a white knight saved them from the brink of destruction. Share your stories /ideas with ACE@wallstreetgrand.com!!!

Here’s the link to the article here.

ACE’s long term picks from 2010 here.

Q: What’s the biggest financial haul I could have scored from stocks if I was the best stock picker over the last five years?

A: Wouldn’t it be great, especially as an investor, if you could know what was going to happen in the future? If you had the luck, foresight or skill to pick the best stock each year, you could score some massive gains. How massive? How rich could you be if you hit the best stock of every year the past five years? It’s a gain most likely beyond your wildest dreams. To find out just how profitable having uncanny stock-picking abilities could be, let’s put some numbers behind it. Investors can take a look at the Standard & Poor’s 1500 index, which includes stocks of all sizes, and locate what the best stock in the index was each year.

Had you had the amazing luck to pick the best stock each year, your total price appreciation and winning stock each year would have been (according to Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ and USA TODAY research):

• Best of 2006: CorVel (CRVL), 275.8% gain

• Best of 2007: First Solar (FSLR), 795.2% gain

• Best of 2008: Emergent BioSolutions (EBS), 416% gain

• Best of 2009: Select Comfort (SCSS), 2,508% gain

• Best of 2010: Entropic Communications (ENTR), 293.5% gain

Imagine investing $10,000 at the start of 2006 in that year’s best stock, CorVel, and then moving your money each year to the following year’s best stock. The value of the portfolio would have grown at the end of each year to:

• 2006: $37,580

• 2007: $336,529

• 2008: $1,736,490

• 2009: $45,287,659

• 2010: $178,206,938

Yes, you read that right. If you picked the best stock of each year, your $10,000 investment would be worth $178.2 million in just five years. That’s an average annual return of 608%. Not bad. Of course, it’s easy to do this kind of analysis looking backwards. We’re all stock-picking geniuses in hindsight. Yet, at the beginning of the year, it’s all but impossible to predict what the best stock will be. Even investors who stumble on a great stock make subsequent mistakes by selling at the wrong time. Nonetheless, considering how powerful the wealth generation of stocks can be, it’s easy to understand why so many investors want to try their luck.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies and Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com.

Macro Economy vs Corporate Earnings

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

Optimism has been running high since earnings from the likes of IBM, Apple, Uuited Technologies, Coke, & CSX., but is that enough that carry on the dismal macro economics. Yesterday’s market rise extended the euphoria after Obama announced he’ll endorse the “The Gang of Six” debt deal. So there is a little help, but again the deal as anticipated will approve before the August 2nd deadline. The weak macro still remains the main driver. Markets will continue to experience the tug & pull effects of news driven earnings. Let’s not forget that the Euro & US debt problems remain. Bank earnings released this past week clearly depict an unstable lending environment. From Goldman Sachs to Bank Of America the 2 business models vary extraordinary. GS is dependent on trading while BAC is dependent on consumer lending. Housing issues along with the Dodd-Frank laws certaintly doed not make matters easy for them. Where will markets head now?

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in June to touch a seven-month low as cancellations of pending contracts surged, an industry group said Wednesday. The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 0.8 percent month over month to an annual rate of 4.77 million units, the lowest since November. May’s sales were unrevised at a 4.81 million-unit rate. Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to rise 2.9 percent to a 4.90 million-unit pace. In the 12 months to June, sales dropped 8.8 percent.

Technicals remain border line bullish however it has been trending sideways between 1360-1260 – a 100 point pattern.

DJIA Up 200 Pts. After Upbeat Earnings & Obama Endorsed Debt Deal

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best day this year, today. Wall Street rallied after a batch of blue-chip earnings, solid economic data, and progress on Capitol Hill. Right out of the gate, well-received earnings reports from IBM Corp. (IBM) and Coca-Cola (KO) helped the DJIA to a triple-digit surplus, overshadowing a flood of earnings flops from the financial sector. Elsewhere, a stronger-than-expected housing report only added to the bullish momentum, as did an afternoon news conference from Washington, D.C.

IBM came out with really good earnings and upped (its) estimates. Other than financials, which are going to continue to be under duress, the rest of the market is going to do pretty well. Stock indexes added to the gains after Obama told a news conference that progress had been made in negotiations to reach a deal on the government’s debt ceiling and avert a possible default. Stocks surged up another 120 points after the news broke out.

President Barack Obama said Tuesday that there’s been “some progress” in talks with lawmakers about raising the U.S. debt limit and lauded a newly released Senate plan that would cut $3.7 trillion from deficits over 10 years. The plan from a Senate group known as the “Gang of Six” aims to immediately cut $500 billion in deficits; make Social Security solvent over 75 years; and reduce marginal income tax rates, among other things.

Obama repeated that he wouldn’t sign a bill due to be voted on later Tuesday in the House that would raise the U.S. debt ceiling on condition that deep spending cuts are made and that both chambers of Congress pass a balanced-budget amendment. The House bill, which would raise the debt limit by $2.4 trillion, is dubbed “Cut, Cap and Balance.” It is expected to fail in the Senate and has been ridiculed by the White House as “duck, dodge and dismantle.” The House plan is expected to fail in the Senate and never reach Obama’s desk. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid have been crafting a backup plan to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over a decade. The House bill was approved on a vote of 234-190.

2011 Q2 Earnings In Full Swing

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

2011 Q2 earnings are in full swing. Several banks and large cap tech companies reported earnings that were both mixed on the street. The DJIA opened higher this morning, led by IBM and Coca-Cola. The two reported earnings that surpassed analysts estimates.

IBM (IBM) surged after the tech giant posted stronger-than-expected earnings after-the-bell Monday and raised its full-year guidance, helped by strong sales of its computers and software. At least three brokerages raised their price targets on the firm. Coca-Cola (KO) earnings topped estimates, helped by strong growth in markets outside the U.S. And Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also said earnings beat estimates.

Among banks, Wells Fargo (WFC) // posted a higher quarterly profit as the bank dipped into funds previously set aside for bad loans. However, Goldman Sachs (GS) // // reported earnings that fell far short of Wall Street estimates, sending shares lower. And Bank of America (BAC)posted a loss after an $8.5 billion settlement with mortgage bond investors. The banking giant closed below $10 a share on Monday, for the first time since June 2009. 

On the economic front, housing starts rose more than expected in June to touch a six-month high and permits for future construction saw a surprise increase, according to the Commerce Department. Housing starts increased 14.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000 units, the highest level since January. But May’s starts were revised down to a 549,000 unit pace, which was previously reported as a 560,000 unit rate. Economists had forecasted housing starts rising to a 575,000-unit rate. Compared to June last year, residential construction was up 16.7 percent.

This Week:

TUESDAY: Fed’s Hoenig speaks; Earnings from Apple and Yahoo
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, existing home sales, oil inventories; Earnings from Altria, United Tech, Abbott Labs, Blackrock, AmEx, Intel, Qualcomm and Ebay
THURSDAY: Weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, money supply; Earnings from AT&T, Morgan Stanley, Nokia, PepsiCo, Freeport McMoran, Travelers, Mircrosoft, AMD and SanDisk
FRIDAY: No major econ. news expected; Earnings from Caterpillar, GE, McDonald’s, Schlumberger, Verizon, Honeywell

High Profile IPO’s Week Of July 18th; (Z,SKUL,FRAN,SXC,XNET,DNKN)

Monday, July 18th, 2011

High profile IPO’s are scheduled to launch this week. Zillow (Z), Skullcandy to lead the IPO week. Francesca’s Holdings and SunCoke Energy also to IPO this week, likely will show a strong showing based on early demand and over-subscription levels, The heavy action may continue into next week, when the parent company of Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin-Robbins is expected to make its debut in a deal currently expected to be worth about $400 million.

Zillow, (Z) operator of a popular online real-estate site, is expected to begin trading Wednesday on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker symbol “Z.” The company raised the estimated price range of its IPO on Friday, pushing the total value of the deal above $62 million at the high end. Zillow “is going to be the beneficiary of several Internet-based IPOs that have done extremely well such as LinkedIn, Yandex, & Pandora. The company plans to sell about 3.46 million shares at an estimated price range of $16 to $18 a share, a $4 increase from its original proposed price range of $12 to $14. Underwriters on the deal include Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Allen & Company, and Pacific Crest Securities.

Also expected to trade Wednesday is Skullcandy Inc., which makes headphones and other gear for portable electronic devices. The company plans to offer 8.3 million shares at a price range of $17-$19 per share. It plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the “SKUL” ticker symbol. Skullcandy, which had at one point planned to launch its roadshow in June, just days after the euphoric Pandora opening, is an interesting story as well. Skullcandy will command a market value of $514 million. Skullcandy, which was founded in 2003, booked $175 million in sales over the last 12 months. Unlike many young tech companies that would like to go public, it had been largely profitable since 2006, and generated just over $1 million in net income during the first quarter. Still, it has faced a couple of headwinds, including a huge loss of nearly $10 million last year. In addition, the recent resignation of Skullcandy’s founder and CEO, Rick Alden, after what the company’s public filings describe as complaints from employees and “improper workplace conduct.”

Specialty women’s clothing boutique Francesca’s Holdings Corp. is scheduled to trade on the Nasdaq on Friday under the symbol “FRAN.” It is expected to sell 10 million shares at an estimated price range of $14 to $16 a share. Similar specialty retailers have seen strong aftermarket performance since their launches. Vera Bradley Inc. (NASDAQ:VRA) is up 25% year-to-date, and Body Central Corp. (NASDAQ:BODY) is up 60% year-to-date. Francesca’s operates a chain of trendy women’s boutiques with 249 locations in 38 states, plans to raise $150 million by offering 10 million shares at a price range of $14 to $16. At the mid-point of the proposed range, Francesca’s Holdings will command a market value of $681 million. Francesca’s Holdings, which was founded in 1999, booked $151 million in sales over the last 12 months.The operator of Francesca’s Collections stores focuses on fashion-conscious 18- to 35-year-olds and designs locations ‘to feel like independently owned, upscale boutiques. Its debut plans come as Americans have been picking up their spending as the job market improves, yet unemployment is high in the U.S. and expected to remain so for some time. Consumers also face higher costs for gas and food. The luxury segment of the retail market has been a bright spot. Specifically, the company has about $41.4 million in proceeds from the offering earmarked toward repaying a senior secured credit facility. Remaining funds may be used for opening new stores and growing its e-commerce business. For the year ended Jan. 29, Francesca’s swung to a profit as sales jumped 70%. Same-store sales climbed 15% on top of a 9.8% increase a year earlier.

Based in the price range mid-point of $15 and annulazing the three months ended April 2011, FRAN is valued at 4.3 times sales, 35 times earnings and -83 times book value (because FRAN has a negative book value) Compared with others in the industry, FRAN’s price-to-earnings ratio of 35 is the highest, and its price-to-book value is the lowest.

Metallurgical coke producer SunCoke Energy is expected trade Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “SXC.” The Sunoco Inc. (NYSE:SUN) spinoff plans to sell 11.6 million shares at an estimated price range of $15 to $17. SunCoke Energy (SXC), the largest independent producer of high-thequality metallurgical coke in the Americas, plans to raise $186 million by offering 11.6 million shares at a price range of $15 to $17. At the mid-point of the proposed range, SunCoke Energy will command a market value of $1.1 billion. SunCoke Energy, which was founded in 1962, booked $533 million in sales over the last 12 months. The Lisle, IL-based company plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol SXC. Credit Suisse, BofA Merrill Lynch, and Goldman, Sachs & Co. are the lead underwriters on the deal.

Chinese Internet video company Xunlei Limited. is expected to trade Wednesday on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “XNET”. Xunlei Limited, which offers accelerated download software and online video services in China, plans to raise $114 million by offering 7.6 million ADSs at a price range of $14 to $16. At the mid-point of the proposed range, Xunlei Limited will command a market value of $1 billion. Xunlei Limited, which was founded in 2003, booked $47 million in sales over the last 12 months. The Shenzhen-based company plans to list on the NASDAQ under the symbol XNET. J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank Securities are the lead underwriters on the deal. Xunlei Ltd, a Chinese Internet platform company is partly owned by Google.

The core download acceleration functionality makes Xunlei Downloader the most popular download acceleration application in China, with a 78.7% market share based on the number of software launches among all download software in China in February 2011, according to iResearch. Xunlei Downloader was used in an average of approximately 138 million downloads per day in 2010. These downloads are available to internet users free of charge. To complement XNET’s download services and to further broaden users access to video content via online streaming, XNET also launched an online video streaming services in 2007 on the Xunlei Kankan website. Xunlei Kankan is the third largest video streaming portal in China, as measured by the monthly unique visitors from homes and offices in April 2011 according to iResearch. Xunlei Kankan had 120.7 million monthly unique visitors from homes and offices in April 2011. XNET’s target range of monthly unique visitors that XNET currently tries to maintain is from 110 million to 140 million. According to iResearch. Xunlei Kankan had 120.7 million monthly unique visitors from homes and offices in April 2011.

XNET generates revenues from multiple sources, including cloud-based subscription services, online advertising, and other services. Multiple revenue streams provide with both revenue diversification and multiple growth areas. XNET implemented its current cloud-based subscription service revenue model in March 2009 and, by the end of March 2011 had developed over 1.3 million subscribers from the large user base of Xunlei Downloader and Xunlei Kankan. XNET also generates online advertising revenues derived principally from various forms of advertisements that XNET places on Xunlei Kankan and Xunlei Downloader. The continued strong growth of subscription-based business in the first quarter of 2011, as evidenced by a rapid increase of the subscribers of XNET’s premium download-related services from 898,494 as of November 30, 2010 to 1,290,000 as of March 21, 2011; The launch of an iPad-version of Xunlei Kankan, a key strategic initiative which enjoyed immediate market acceptance upon release, is expected to bring new business opportunities to XNET. XNET entered into a series of exclusive content licensing agreements with content owners and secured the exclusive rights of two blockbuster movies in the first quarter of 2011. XNET entered into framework agreements with some major brand advertisers that further support the value of Xunlei Kankan as a leading online streaming platform.

XNET faces significant competition in different areas of its business. XNET’s Xunlei Kankan website competes with other major online video companies such as Youku.com (NYSE:YOKU) and Tudou.com. XNET’s Xunlei Downloader primarily competes with e-Mule, FlashGet and Tencent with QQ Cyclone (TCEHY.PK). Sohu.com (SOHU, $3 billion market cap) has committed to buying $10 million in a concurrent private placement that they will hold for at least 180 days. XNET has a ‘material weakness’ in its accounting systems it expects to rectify by the end of 2012. Even though top line revenue is increasing on a sequential quarterly basis, gross profit in the last six quarters has dropped from 78% to 61%, operating income has dropped from 18% to 15%, and net income has dropped form 20% to 13%. In the last three quarters net income declined from the September quarter ($2.7 million) to the December quarter ($2 million) to March the quarter ($1.9 million). At the price range mid-point of $15, XNET would sell for 41 times annualized March 2011 quarter earnings and 5.6 times sales. At the IPO price of $15 XNET may be a risky speculation in the short term.

As Uncertainty Remains, Gold & Silver Rise

Monday, July 18th, 2011

As uncertainty lingers with the Euro debt laden countries and debt ceiling impasse in the US, Gold & Silver takes advantage of the fiscal irresponsibilities of weak countries.  Today gold prices rallied to record highs above $1,600 an ounce, as investors spooked by the euro zone debt crisis and the threat of a U.S. default bought into the metal as a haven from risk. Geithner this morning provided confirmation that Congress have agreed not to default and will eventually soothe the debt markets.

Gold rose more than 3 percent for a second straight week to Friday, a feat it has not achieved since February 2009. Gold has room to go up. The smouldering debt crisis in the euro zone peripheral countries and the uncertainty over the debt limit in the United States are currently supporting prices. It seems gold will stay well supported unless we get a real and convincing solution from the extraordinary EU summit that takes place on Thursday. Risk aversion swept the markets after euro zone stress test results failed to address the potential for a Greek sovereign debt default before a summit in Brussels on Thursday. European shares fell sharply as long-awaited bank stress test results only intensified worries about the regional debt crisis. Sovereign default fears are growing in both Europe and the U.S. The U.S. is struggling with deficit-reduction talks ahead of the White House’s July 22 deadline on a deal to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling.

Silver also this morning rose above $40 an ounce for the first time since early May. The grey metal rallied to a record $49.51 an ounce in April before correcting sharply. It has rallied more than 15 percent in the last two weeks, however, as gold prices have risen.

Markets Flat As Consumer Sentiment Neg. & Debt Vote

Friday, July 15th, 2011

U.S. stocks gave up early gains Friday as uncertainty about the debt ceiling was heightened by comments from House Republicans. Markets are currently trading sideways. The U.S. debt ceiling debate remains the big topic on investors’ minds. House Speaker John Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said Friday that Republican lawmakers have been doing everything they can to avoid a default. And they reiterated that no new taxes should be included in any budget negotiation. Investors are already frazzled by worries over Europe’s sovereign debt problems. The results of European bank stress tests are due out around midday and Greece remains a big worry. U.S. consumer sentiment fell in July to the lowest level since March 2009 amid increasing pessimism over falling income and rising unemployment, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey.

U.S. consumer prices fell slightly more than expected in June to post their biggest drop in a year on weak gasoline costs. The Consumer Price Index slipped 0.2 percent, the largest decline since last June, after rising 0.2 percent in May, according to the Labor Department. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to fall 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, industrial production rose in June for the first time in three months after revisions, on a jump in utilities and mining output, according to a Fed study.

On the economic front, however, a gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed the sector unexpectedly contracted for the second month in a row as new orders worsened. The New York Fed’s Empire State index rose to minus 3.76 from minus 7.79 in June. However, it was still weaker than the reading of 4.50 that economists had expected, according to a Reuters poll.

Stocks spiked briefly after GOP lawmakers said the House of Representatives is to vote next week on a plan to raise debt ceiling with equal cuts, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. President Obama held a press conference at 11 am ET, where he is expected to discuss the ongoing deficit issue.

President Barack Obama, making his push for a debt reduction plan that includes tax hikes and spending cuts, said Friday Republicans should listen to voters, whom he said support such a move. The president called on congressional leaders to “seize the moment” and stabilize America’s finances by agreeing to a grand compromise that would include entitlement reform and higher taxes on wealthier Americans. Obama said congressional leaders have expressed a desire to make sure the United States doesn’t default on its obligations. “That is a good thing,” Obama said. “This is not some abstract issue,” he warned. “Congress has run up the credit card” and now the bills must be paid, he said. The president acknowledged that many Republicans have resisted his plan and said he expects many to vote on proposals next week simply “to make political statements.” “I am still pushing for us to achieve a big deal. If we can’t do the biggest deal possible, let’s still be ambitious. Let’s still get a down payment on deficit reduction.” A third option is to raise the debt ceiling but do nothing else, Obama said, but then the problem “will still plague us for months and years to come.” The president warned that the GOP’s “cut, cap, and balance” plan would require cutting Medicare and Social Security “substantially.” Obama dismissed the GOP’s call for a balanced budget amendment, saying political leaders don’t need a constitutional amendment to “do our jobs.”

 Top House Republicans blasted Obama earlier Friday for failing to produce what they consider to be a legitimate spending cut plan in the debt ceiling talks — a sign of continued frustration with the pace of negotiations. The Republicans said they intend to move forward with a vote next week with the “cut, cap, and balance” plan a blueprint to significantly cut spending, cap future expenditures and amend the Constitution to require a balanced budget in the future.

Mergers & Acquisitions

In M&A news, Petrohawk Energy (NYSE:HK) // skyrocketed more than 60 percent after mining group BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) // said it will buy the gas producer for $12.1 billion.

And Clorox jumped after billionaire investor Carl Icahn offered to buy the firm for $10.2 billion.

Bernanke Confirms QE3 Not Ready For 2011

Thursday, July 14th, 2011

Markets this morning were up close to 70 points. Bernanke gave his testimony to Congress with regards to the current state economy. Traders were awaiting further details on QE3. Traders have become so dependent on extra liquidity in place of real growth. Quantitative easing has masked weakness in the economy. Every moment QE3 is mentioned by a Fed official, markets and commodities head higher. As we witnessed today, Bernanke downplayed QE3 clarifying the markets it will not be launched this year as I had suspected. Early to mid 2012 is the target. 10 year Bonds remain high @ 2.92 which suggests volatility remains. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke backed away slightly from promising a third round of stimulus measures, telling a Senate panel Thursday that the central bank is not prepared at this point to take further action. The comments during his second day of congressional testimony sent the US dollar higher and caused stocks and gold to pare their gains. Bernanke also repeated his warning that a U.S. debt default would be devastating for the U.S. and the global economy. Two ratings agencies have warned that the U.S. could lose its top credit rating in coming weeks if a standoff between the White House and congressional Republicans over raising the debt ceiling is not resolved.

Reports released on Thursday, however, showed some signs economic activity could be picking up. Retail sales rose in June, and claims for unemployment benefits fell last week. However, producer prices posted their steepest decline since February 2010 as energy prices eased. While Fed policymakers have been worried about rising inflation, the risk of a damaging deflationary spiral could force the central bank to act to promote growth.

Markets Close Off Their Highs

Wednesday, July 13th, 2011

QE3 buzz brings out the bulls but DJIA loses steam at the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,491.61 boasted a gain of more than 160 points, but whittled its surplus down to just 44.7 points, or 0.4%, by the close. Earlier in the session, markets made a brief trip north of 12,600, but stood south of 12,500 for the second straight session by the time the dust settled. Likewise, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,317.72) was up more than 17 points at its session high, but trimmed its lead to 4.1 points, or 0.3%, by the bell. Stifling the broad-market index’s upward momentum was the 1,333 neighborhood, which marks double its March 2009 low.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lured buyers from the sidelines. Speaking on Capitol Hill, the central banker hinted at “additional policy support” in the wake of an extended period of economic weakness, but reiterated the Fed’s forecast for a “moderate” recovery. Nevertheless, buzz of a possible “QE3″ fueled stocks into the black, and sent the greenback reeling which translated into a second straight all-time high for dollar-denominated gold. However, Bernanke’s warning that debt-ceiling delays could be “catastrophic” took some of the wind out of the bulls’ sails, with the major market indexes giving back the majority of their gains by the bell.

Reasons for late sell-off

1)Hawkish comments from Dallas Fed’s Fisher critical of QE2 and implying there was no way he would support QE3

2) The Catch-22 with QE3 is now obvious to all: Bernanke has said the bar would be set high, that signs of deflation would be one of the primary reasons for doing QE3 again … but every time we get a QE3 “risk on” rally with commodities up, it (by definition!) makes it less likely that QE3 will happen.

3) Concerns on earnings commentary. Forget QE3 or the debt ceiling…my main concern for the stock market in July is earnings. Banks begin reporting tomorrow. Traders have looked at the downbeat semiconductor commentary this week.

Remember we also we will get European bank stress tests on Friday—91 banks. A small German bank—Helaba—has already pulled out of the stress tests—to avoid public failure, according to the FT. Apparently there is a dispute about what instruments should count as top-quality capital.