Archive for October, 2011

Euro-Zone Drama

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

The DJIA fell, after closing lower in the previous session. The blue-chip index is on track for its first weekly loss in four weeks. European shares were pressured amid news that Germany and France were at odds over how to increase the firepower of the euro zone’s bailout fund. French President Nicola Sarkozy told the French parliament the dispute was holding up negotiations on Wednesday. He then flew to Frankfurt to talk with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an attempt to break the deadlock ahead of a make-or-break European leaders’ summit on Sunday.

Meanwhile, investors grew more nervous following news the German government does not rule out the  possibility of postponing the EU summit planned for this Sunday due to the stalled talks, according to German newspaper Die Welt. The summit had already been postponed from Oct. 17. Austria’s finance ministry and some EU senior diplomats denied the report, saying they were not aware of any delays.

Meanwhile demonstrators protested in Greece for a second day of a general strike while disgruntled lawmakers vote on the details of a deeply unpopular austerity package needed to stave off bankruptcy.

Euro Fears Return Again -Hope Fades

Thursday, October 20th, 2011

U.S. stocks fell Wednesday as investors assessed European efforts to fix the region’s debt problems and weak US Data. The DJIA ended down 72.43 points, or 0.6%, at 11,504.62, after rising nearly 57 points and falling as much as 108 points. The index had been higher before the Federal Reserve’s afternoon release of regional indicators, known as the Beige Book. The Beige Book report said many districts saw “modest” to “slight” growth. “Contacts generally noted weaker or less certain outlooks for business conditions,” the report said. Investments recently sought as safe-haven assets, such as Treasurys and the U.S. dollar, pared losses after the report. The S&P ended down 15.5 points, or 1.3%, to 1,209.88 points. It had risen as high as 1,229.64. Losses were led by declines in the metals and chemicals-heavy materials sector, followed by technology. Markets were sensitive to media reports on possible European efforts to leverage their bailout fund.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy was expected to fly to Frankfurt Wednesday to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde and other officials ahead of a key summit meeting of euro-area leaders on Sunday, news reports said. Sarkozy told French lawmakers that a dispute over how to boost the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility, the region’s bailout fund, had stalled talks, Reuters reported. E.U. leaders are expected to announce progress on the region’s debt crisis at a summit meeting this Sunday. The caution, however, is that European leaders need to come up with a large-funded, specific plan or risk a flop much like Treasury Secretary’s Timothy Geithner’s much-criticized stability plan in February 2009. Markets are on pause as to what’s going to come from Europe. The market could drift higher toward 1270 in the S&P with the absence of anything affirmative, but so far we’ve seen a lot of talk and no action, so we have to keep an eye toward disappointment.

As other major economies tried to pressure European leaders to get a deal done, Canada’s Finance Minister Jim Flaherty called the slow progress “disconcerting” and the head of the World Bank urged policymakers to take “definite steps”. ”I believe this can come together and I believe that since our annual meeting in September, the Europeans have been much more … focused about this issue, but I also believe there’s not a lot of room for error,” World Bank President Robert Zoellick told reporters in Michigan. France has argued the most effective way of leveraging the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is to turn it into a bank which could then access funding from the ECB, but both the central bank and the German government have opposed this. ”In Germany, the coalition is divided on this issue. It is not just Angela Merkel whom we need to convince,” Sarkozy told the parliamentarians at a lunch meeting.

His comments fuelled doubts about whether euro zone leaders will agree a clear and convincing plan when they meet on Sunday. Failure to do so would further undermine financial markets’ already shattered confidence in the currency bloc and its ability to get on top of a two-year-long debt crisis, which threatens the long-term viability of the single currency. Adding to uncertainty, the Financial Times reported that plans to strengthen the banking system, another key plank of the discussions, would fall short of market expectations. The latest official estimates have put the banks capital shortfall at less than 100 billion euros, the FT said, compared with a recent IMF report putting the funding hole and 200 billion and analysts’ estimates of 275 billion or more.

Finland’s Prime Minister, Jyrki Katainen, added his voice to what appeared to be efforts to lower expectations, telling public broadcaster YLE he did not believe Sunday’s summit would resolve the euro zone debt crisis. ”I don’t believe that such solutions could be made on Sunday that would … fix everything. But I’m certain that there will be decisions that point to the right direction,” he said in comments broadcast on Wednesday. ”We’re trying the whole time,” said EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn after the Merkel-Sarkozy meeting, when asked about the chances of reaching a deal at the weekend summit. Nevertheless, the hope remains that leaders will agree new steps to reduce Greece’s debt, strengthen the capital of banks with exposure to troubled euro zone sovereigns and leverage the euro zone’s rescue fund to stem contagion to bigger economies.

Top Range Of S&P 1220-1265

Wednesday, October 19th, 2011

We’ve reached the top end of a recent trading range between 1,075 and 1,225 on the S&P. Markets are on pause and are waiting for Europe news as “HOPE” trading prevails and News sells. What’s going to break us out to the upside would have to be some credible resolution in the EU for the banking situation, which will send the S&P up to 1,300. The market for now will stay locked in the current range.

On the economic front, housing starts surged 15 percent in September to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 658,000 units, their fastest annual pace in 17 months, according to the Commerce Department. Economists had expected an increase to a 590,000-unit rate. A strong residential construction number is a welcome relief for an economy struggling to hang on to expansion and a hopeful harbinger of better days to come,” according to Celia Chen, Senior Director of Housing Economics for Moody’s Analytics. “Caution, however, needs to be taken in interpreting the surprisingly strong top-line housing starts for September…Whether this momentum persists, depends on the economy staying out of recession.” Sounds like inventory disposal at best to me, in hopes someone will buy.

U.S. consumer prices logged an increase of 0.1 percent in September, their smallest gain in six months, according to the Labor Department. Economists had expected core CPI to rise 0.2 percent last month.

In Europe, Greek unions started a 48-hour strike as parliament prepares to vote on new austerity measures aimed at avoiding a default.

And EU leaders are scrambling to set the outlines of a new rescue package in time for a summit on Sunday that hopes to agree measures to protect the region’s financial system from a potential Greek debt default.

EFSF Rumored To Be €2 Trillion

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

A rally in stocks and risk gained more steam after a late day story from the U.K. Guardian said France and Germany agreed to a plan to lever the European bailout fund to 2 trillion euros. But even as markets moved on the report, traders were already knocking the article which quoted unnamed sources. The DJIA was up 180 or 1.6 percent at 11,577, and the S&P 25.42 or 1225.

As the weekend draws closer, anxiety over the ability of European leaders to move together towards a solution is likely to grow. The headlines from Europe also compete with U.S. corporate earnings season, and so far Europe has been leading. On Wednesday, Greek unions start a 48-hour general strike, the biggest protest in years, as the Greek parliament prepares to vote on new austerity measures aimed at heading off default. The big week for Europe and markets will be the first week of November, when a plan for Europe is expected for the Nov. 2 G-20 leaders meeting. That is also the week that European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet resigns and will be replaced by Mario Draghi, who heads the Bank of Italy. There is also a Fed meeting that week.

Meanwhile, the earnings parade continues with some big surprises. Tech darling Apple announced a shocking miss in earnings and in revenues after the bell Tuesday. Its earnings rose 54 percent to $7.05 per share, but were below the $7.39 expected, and its revenues were $28.27 billion, less than the $29.7 billion forecast by analysts. Apple stock was down nearly 7 percent in after hours trading.

Earnings Wednesday morning include Morgan Stanley ms, United Technologies UTX, BlackRock BLK, Travelers TRV, AMR AMR and Freeport McMoran FCX. American Express AXP, eBAy EBAY, Cheesecake Factory CAKE, Wynn Resorts WYNN and Noble Energy NBL report after the bell. Goldman Sachs  GS reported its second quarterly loss ever on Tuesday, reflecting steep losses in its investment portfolio. That puts the focus on Morgan Stanley, which has been the target of rumors about its weak performance. Goldman Sachs stock rose more than 5 percent, even after the loss, as Goldman said it could buy back more of its shares. Economic data Wednesday includes mortgage applications. There is also CPI and September Housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Fed’s beige book on the economy is released at 2 p.m.

US Data & Earnings Show A Weakening Economy

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

U.S. stocks are extending Monday’s slide today, thanks to the weak gross domestic product (GDP) data out of China and a few lackluster big-cap earnings reports. Among the notable pre-market decliners are blue chips IBM Corp. (IBM) and Goldman Sachs (GS), which are starting the session in the red. Meanwhile, lingering concerns about the fiscal health of Europe have also fueled the bears ahead of the bell, with Moody’s warning that France’s triple-A credit rating could be in danger. Against this pessimistic backdrop and ahead of an afternoon speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the DJIA is down with a second straight triple-digit drop, down 90.

U.S. producer prices rose more than expected by 0.8 percent in September to record their largest increase in five months as gasoline prices surged, according to the Labor Department. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to increase 0.2 percent.

Goldman Sachs saw only its second loss since becoming a public company 12 years ago. IBM slumped after the tech giant’s revenue barely met forecasts, underscoring fears over slower IT spending. The company still beat earnings expectation and increased its 2011 EPS outlook. Analysts were mixed on the stock. BofA Merrill Lynch raised its price target on the firm to $205 from $190, while BMO slashed its rating to “market perform” from “outperform.”

On Tap This Week:

TUESDAY: Bernanke speaks; Earnings from Apple, Intel, CSX and Yahoo
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, CPI, housing starts, Fed’s Rosengren speaks, oil inventories, Fed’s Beige Book; Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Travelers, United Tech, AmEx, Ebay, Western Digital
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, existing home sales, Philadelphia Fed survey, leading indicators, Fed’s Bullard and Kocherlakota speak, NewsCorp investor day; Earnings from AT&T, Eli Lilly, Nokia, AutoNation, Microsoft, Capital One, Chipotle and SanDisk
FRIDAY: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, 2011 Dodd-Frank Rulemaking Deadline; Earnings from GE, McDonald’s, Verizon, Honeywell and Schlumberger

Germany Dashes Hope On A Quick Deal

Monday, October 17th, 2011

Ironically after a massive 14% climb in the markets particulary in the S&P, “Hopes” for a quick EU debt solution faded. Markets are down 190 points for the DJIA. Germany lowered expectations on Monday of a breakthrough in the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, saying a weekend summit of EU leaders would not produce a definitive solution, in comments that pushed down the euro and European stocks.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in Duesseldorf on Monday that while European governments would adopt a five-point platform to address the turmoil, it was wrong to expect miracle cure from the summit. “We won’t have a definitive solution this weekend,” he said. Schaeuble said the plan would have to include a reduction in Greece’s debt mountain. He repeated at the weekend that private bondholders would have to accept steeper voluntary write-downs on their Greek holdings than the 21 percent agreed last July. A lead negotiator for the banks said this could only happen if policymakers addressed the “full range” of sovereign debt issues in Europe. Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) declined comment on reports that the private sector might have to take a 50 percent loss.

Euro zone leaders are in a race against time to convince banks to accept “voluntary” writedowns of up to 50 percent on their Greek debt. They are also trying to agree on a blueprint for recapitalizing financial institutions at risk from the deepening crisis. Merkel’s spokesman said the government was working “intensively” to define how German banks would participate in a second rescue package for Greece and how to make best use of the the bloc’s 440 billion euro rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

Greece

The national newspapers proclaim in large 40-point type “Hellish Week,” or more sarcastically “It Begins — the Week of Thrills.” Both are a reference to a massive 48-hour strike, beginning Wednesday, that may bring out as many as 50,000 to 60,000 protestors. The protest is timed for a controversial vote in parliament, scheduled for Thursday, that would effectively eliminate the minimum wage for millions of workers.

Behind the scenes the race is on for a decision on whether or not Greece will receive any more debt forgiveness, ahead of a meeting with European finance ministers on Oct. 23 in Brussels. International banks have already agreed to a reduction of 21 percent. But participants in the discussions say there will be a greater “haircut” on the debt — somewhere between 30 percent and 50 percent, although the banking industry is fighting it tooth and nail.

The social cohesion of the country is being tested to its limits as it comes to grips with a debt crisis that means government workers are facing pay cuts and job losses, and the private sector is facing huge tax increases. Greece now owes more than 360 billion euros, or half a trillion U.S. dollars. They are unable to borrow on the international markets, and are at the mercy of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. for quarterly cash injections so that, at a minimum, the government can keep meeting payroll.

Geithner: US to Play Role In Helping Europe

Friday, October 14th, 2011

October 23, the date of the European Union summit at which solutions to the crisis are expected to be announced remains a long way off, the risk rally only showed signs of fading on Thursday as investors took a breather after some sharp gains on Wednesday. The resumption of the rally on Friday was helped by encouragingly robust US retail sales data and news from Geithner representing US will provide support for the Euro cause. Stocks are on pace to log their third-straight weekly gain Friday, amid optimism the euro zone would find a solution to its debt crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied to turn positive for 2011 up 120 points at the time of this writing while the S&P is up 13 points to 1216 with technical resistance at 1220 and 1235.

Geithner is in Paris attending a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers today and tomorrow that is seeking ways to end Europe’s two-year crisis. Global stocks rose today as outlines of a package emerged, including higher bank capital levels, deeper investor losses on Greek bonds and increased firepower for bailouts. Geithner said the International Monetary Fund has “very substantial uncommitted resources” to help in the crisis. “Europe as a whole has very substantial resources to help manage their problems.” He said the U.S. would continue to press for a solution. “Europeans have asked us for advice,” Geithner said. “Through the IMF we have a direct stake in the choices they’re making. We’re going to be as forceful and persuasive as we can.”

With global leaders preparing for next month’s Group of 20 nations (G20) summit in Cannes, France, the International Monetary Fund — of which the U.S. is the greatest contributor — is being relied on to help underwrite whatever efforts are needed to backstop toxic European sovereign debt. Geithner said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has “very substantial” resources to fund a device that could look like the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which helped navigate American financial institutions through the crisis in 2008 and 2009. “Through the IMF, of course, we’re already playing a very major role,” he said in a live interview in Paris. “We’re happy to see the IMF continue to play that role in support of a more forceful, comprehensive strategy where Europe’s own resources—very ample resources—are deployed on a much more substantial scale.”

Geithner declined to give a specific number on what would be required to aid Greece and any other potential countries that need help meeting their obligations. Estimates have run as high as $2 trillion for a liquidity fund, and Geithner said that whatever the figure is, it should leave no doubt that there will be more than enough.

Markets Are Becoming Top Heavy

Friday, October 14th, 2011

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,478.13) fell as low as 11,377.82, but eventually trimmed its loss to 40.7 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,203.66) tagged an intraday nadir of 1,190.58, but pared its deficit to 3.6 points, or 0.3%, to maintain a perch atop the 1,200 level. U.S. stocks spent most of the session south of breakeven today, with banks leading the retreat in the wake of a less-than-stellar earnings showing from JPMorgan Chase (JPM). In addition, the decline among financial stocks was further exacerbated by recent moves on Capitol Hill, with lawmakers asking the Justice Department to investigate whether big banks violated antitrust laws before announcing monthly debit fees. Elsewhere, uninspiring economic data out of China, as well as a lackluster report on first-time jobless claims, also added to the bears’ fire.

Meanwhile, Chinese trade data was weaker than expected, with the trade surplus narrowing for the second consecutive month, reigniting worries about the global economy.

In Europe, Slovakia’s parliament ratified a plan to bolster the euro zone’s EFSF rescue fund, completing the approval process as the last member of the common currency area.

Congress Approves Panama, Columbia, And South Korea Trade

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Free-trade deals between the U.S. and Colombia, Panama and South Korea cleared the House and Senate on Wednesday after almost five years of negotiations, as Democrats and Republicans joined in a rare display of bipartisanship and sent the measures to President Barack Obama. The deals, strongly backed by the White House, could boost U.S. exports by $13 billion a year, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. The pacts were first negotiated during the George W. Bush administration and revised by the Obama administration.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that failure to pass the three pacts would have cost more than 380,000 American jobs. In the House, the vote was 262-167 on the Colombia agreement; 300-129 on the Panama deal and 278-151 on the South Korea agreement. The Senate voted 66-33 on the Colombia agreement; 77-22 on the Panama deal and 83-15 on the South Korea agreement.

The agreement with South Korea is worth more than $11 billion in U.S. exports a year, according to the ITC. Approval of that deal and the others on Wednesday came a day before a state visit by South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak, a key U.S. ally in Asia. The House also passed funding for workers who have lost their jobs because of international competition, a key demand of Obama’s for getting the trade deals through Congress. The Senate had approved the funding, called trade adjustment assistance, earlier. Some lawmakers protested that U.S. industries including manufacturing and textiles would be hurt by the trade agreements..

The AFL-CIO, the country’s biggest federation of labor unions, had urged lawmakers to oppose the deal with Colombia due to killings of union members in the South American country. Democrats including Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the party’s leader in the House, voted against the Colombia deal. The agreement “isn’t fair to workers in Colombia or to workers in the United States,” Pelosi said. In his chamber, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio slammed the Panama agreement before being rebuffed by fellow Democrat Max Baucus, who pointed to a thick stack of papers and said: “Those are all the tariffs that Panama’s going to get rid of.”

Fed Minutes Doubts US Economy Will Improve

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Federal Reserve officials who voted last month to twist their holdings of bonds were concerned the economy might not pick up by the end of the year, according to the minutes of their two-day meeting in late September released on Wednesday. Talk about a Debby Downer. Fed officials “saw considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook for a gradual pickup in economic growth,” with the economy showing only a weak bounce after the recession in contrast to past recoveries, according to the minutes. Reasons for this weakness remained “unclear” although some blamed business and consumer debt and the distressed housing market. With growth so slow, the economy was more vulnerable to adverse shocks. Risks included more protracted deleveraging by households, larger-than-expected fiscal tightening and potential spillover if the financial situation in Europe were to worsen appreciably. The release of the minutes had little short-term effect on markets, with U.S. stocks finishing up 102 points, but well off its highs.

Federal Open Market Committee members “agreed to consider further how best to use their monetary policy and liquidity tools to deal with such shocks if they were to occur.” The Fed staff said they continued to forecast stronger growth in the second half of this year because supply chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector as a result of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami had eased. The central bank at the meeting re-started a half-century-old policy called Operation Twist, in which they set a plan to sell $400 billion worth of short maturity bonds and reinvest into longer-dated securities. They did consider outright purchases of bonds but said that may be employed if signs of deflation were to re-emerge. The policy was approved by a seven-to-three vote. Two Fed officials wanted stronger action but agreed to go along with the Twist plan as it did not rule out future steps. Those two members weren’t named, though Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he was one of them. Plosser separately on Wednesday said he didn’t expect the U.S. to enter recession.

Federal Reserve policymakers left the door open to another round of asset purchases in the near future. Minutes released Wednesday showed that the possibility of a third round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing or QE3, is still very much alive.

The Fed’s next meeting is set for Nov. 1 and 2