Archive for November, 2011

Did The Central Banks Just Saved The World

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

World markets are massively short covering their positions after an announcement this morning at 8 AM EST, that the coordinated action by central banks around the world will provide more liquidity to the global financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve, after a similar effort in September, will “lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points.” Wednesday’s move from the Fed was matched by corresponding actions from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. The new pricing applies to operations conducted as of Dec. 5, and the authorization of the swap arrangements has been extended to Feb. 13. What does this mean? Does the signal that the financial markets were really beginning to dry up with interbank lending. Was the European debt crisis beginning to unravel for the worse with the German inactions? What does mean to the Dollar? —->Devaluation 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 415 points to 11,970, while the S&P 500 added 42 points to 1,237. The victim of the surge was the dollar, which stumbled on the central banks’ latest move to flood the market with more greenbacks. The euro climbed to $1.3487, from $1.3315 Tuesday. In my opinion policymakers are buying time for the Euro Zone to changes treaties and most likely drastically change the structure of the common currency (and yes, definitely kick a few members out). They also must find a way to rescue the banks and inject additional liquidity similar to the US TARP. The underlining problem remains the monstrous debt held.

While the effort to provide more liquidity may temporarily soothe the symptoms of Europe’s debt crisis and allow financial institutions easier access to funding, it does little to address the underlying roots of overburdened governments that need to be propped up while they drastically cut spending. 

The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) announced new leverage tools geared at increasing its lending capacity on Wednesday, but it still remains to be seen where the additional financing will come from for the public-private special purpose vehicles the EFSF intends to use to provide funding to sovereign governments through primary and secondary bond market purchases. That funding could in turn be used to recapitalize European banks that are at risk of crumbling due to their exposure to the region’s shaky credits. Those concerns took a backseat Wednesday morning though, as equities rallied and bond yields in at-risk countries like Italy and Spain held fairly steady.

China also gave the market a helping hand Wednesday, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for its banks in a bid to jumpstart an economy that has slowed from its torrid pace and fueled concerns about a hard landing that could threaten precarious global growth.

Here’s a statement from the FOMC website.

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity. 

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorized through February 1, 2013.

Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized an extension of the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank through February 1, 2013. The rate on these swap arrangements has been reduced from the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 100 basis points to the OIS rate plus 50 basis points. In addition, as a contingency measure, the Federal Open Market Committee has agreed to establish similar temporary swap arrangements with these five central banks to provide liquidity in any of their currencies if necessary. Further details on the revised arrangements will be available shortly.

U.S. financial institutions currently do not face difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets. However, were conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Action

The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have agreed to extend the US $30 billion swap facility (reciprocal currency arrangement) through 1 February 2013 and adjust the pricing to the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 50 basis points. This swap facility was set to expire on 1 August 2012. The introduction of the expanded network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of Canada, should the need arise, to provide Canadian dollars to the other central banks, and to provide liquidity in Japanese yen, euros, U.K. pounds sterling, Swiss francs and U.S. dollars (via the existing U.S. dollar swap facility) to financial institutions in Canada. The Bank of Canada judges that it is not necessary for it to draw or offer operations on any of these swap facilities at this time, but that it is prudent to have these agreements in place. Should these facilities be drawn on, the details of the liquidity facilities provided would depend on the specific market circumstances at the time. The Bank of Canada continues to closely monitor developments in global financial markets and remains committed to providing liquidity as required to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the functioning of financial markets.

Bank of England Action

The introduction of the network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of England to provide sterling to the other central banks if required, as well as enabling the Bank of England to provide liquidity, should it be needed, in Japanese yen, euro, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in U.S. dollars). The Bank will continue its weekly tenders of U.S. dollar funding at fixed interest rates each Wednesday until further notice, with counterparties able to borrow unlimited amounts against eligible collateral. The rate at which tenders are conducted will be reduced to OIS+50bps (from OIS+100bps) beginning with the next weekly tender on 7 December. The three-month tender scheduled for 7 December and subsequent three-month tenders will also be conducted at OIS+50bps. In the U.S. dollar repo operations, counterparties are permitted to borrow any amount against eligible collateral.

European Central Bank Decision

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in co-operation with other central banks the establishment of a temporary network of reciprocal swap lines.  This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars). The ECB will regularly conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately one week and three months at the new pricing. The schedule for these operations, which will take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, will be published today on the ECB’s website.

In addition, the initial margin for three-month US dollar operations will be reduced from currently 20% to 12% and weekly updates of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be introduced in order to carry out margin calls. Those changes will be effective as of the operations to be conducted on 7 December 2011. Further details about the operations will be made available in the respective modified tender procedure via the ECB’s Website.

Frequently Asked Questions: Foreign Currency Liquidity Swaps

What is the purpose of the foreign currency liquidity swap lines? 

The foreign currency liquidity swap lines are designed to provide the Federal Reserve with the capacity to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions should the Federal Reserve judge that such actions are appropriate.

Which central banks are participating in these arrangements?

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized arrangements between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. In addition, these foreign central banks are also establishing bilateral swap arrangements with one another.

Why are these swap lines being implemented?

These swap lines are being implemented as a contingency measure, so that central banks can offer liquidity in foreign currencies if market conditions warrant such actions. These lines provide the Federal Reserve with the same ability to provide foreign currency, should the need arise, as foreign central banks currently have through the existing dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve to provide dollar liquidity in their jurisdictions.

Why is the Federal Reserve establishing lines for these five currencies and with these five central banks? 

These five currencies are used globally and account for the bulk of the foreign currency funding of U.S. financial institutions.

In what manner would foreign currency liquidity be provided?

There has not been a decision to activate the foreign currency liquidity facilities. If the Federal Reserve were to decide to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions, the details of the operations would be determined at that time in light of the prevailing circumstances.

Will activity under the liquidity swap arrangements be disclosed to the public? 

Yes, the aggregate swap activity in each currency with foreign central banks will be published weekly. They will be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Foreign Exchange Swap Agreement webpage . In addition, any liquidity-supplying operations in foreign currencies would be subject to the same disclosure requirements as the Federal Reserve’s dollar-based activities.

For how long are the swap arrangements expected to be in place?

These swap arrangements, along with the existing U.S. dollar swap arrangements, have been authorized through February 1, 2013.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from May 2010

Why has the Federal Reserve re-established temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities with foreign central banks? 

The swap facilities announced in May 2010 respond to the re-emergence of strains in short term funding markets in Europe. They are designed to improve liquidity conditions in global money markets and to minimize the risk that strains abroad could spread to U.S. markets, by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions.

With which central banks has the Federal Reserve entered into swap facilities? 

The Federal Reserve has established swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

How do the swap facilities function? 

The swap lines with the ECB, BOE, SNB and BOJ provide these central banks with the capacity to conduct tenders of U.S. dollars in their local markets at fixed local rates for full allotment, similar to arrangements that had been in place previously. The swap line with the Bank of Canada allows for drawings of up to $30 billion. The terms, structure, and operational mechanics of these swap agreements closely parallel the arrangements that expired on February 1, 2010.

For how long are the swap facilities expected to be operational? 

These swap arrangements have been authorized through February 1, 2013. Central banks may request drawings on their swap lines up to the date of expiration.

Is the Federal Reserve exposed to foreign exchange or private bank risk in extending these lines? 

No. Dollars provided through the reciprocal currency swaps are provided by the Federal Reserve to foreign central banks, not to the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central bank receiving dollars determines the terms on which it will lend dollars onward to institutions in its jurisdiction, including how the foreign central bank will allocate dollar funds to financial institutions, which institutions are eligible to borrow, and what types of collateral they may borrow against. The terms governing these loans of dollars are in all cases released to the public by the foreign central banks. As the Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship is exclusively with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations, the Federal Reserve does not assume the credit risk associated with lending to financial institutions based in these foreign jurisdictions. The provision of dollars and receipt of foreign currency, and the receipt of dollars and return of foreign currency at the swap’s maturity date, both occur at the same foreign exchange rate so that the Federal Reserve is not exposed to movements in foreign exchange rates.

Is activity under the liquidity swap arrangements disclosed to the public? 

Yes, swap activity is published weekly. The Federal Reserve has also released the underlying legal agreements with foreign central banks.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from December 2007 to February 2010

What was the purpose of the dollar liquidity swap lines?

The dollar liquidity swap lines were designed to improve liquidity conditions in U.S. and foreign financial markets by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions during times of market stress.

What circumstances led to the implementation of these facilities?

The swap arrangements were introduced to address stresses in U.S. dollar funding in overseas markets. These difficulties were adding materially to pressures in funding and credit markets in the United States and abroad.

Who authorized the use of the swaps?

The arrangements were authorized by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System and the policy boards or executives of the respective foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve had the right to approve or deny requests by foreign central banks to draw on their swap lines. The FOMC authorized these arrangements through February 1, 2010. The foreign central banks could request draws on their swap lines up to that date.

Which central banks could engage in swaps?

The Federal Reserve established swap arrangements with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank.

How were the swaps structured?

The Federal Reserve provided U.S. dollars to a foreign central bank. At the same time, the foreign central bank provided the equivalent amount of funds in its currency to the Federal Reserve, based on the market exchange rate at the time of the transaction. The parties agreed to swap back these quantities of their two currencies at a specified date in the future, which was the next day or as far ahead as three months, using the same exchange rate as in the first transaction. Because the terms of this second transaction were set in advance, fluctuations in exchange rates during the interim did not alter the eventual payments. Accordingly, these swap operations carried no exchange rate or other market risks.

How did foreign central banks distribute the U.S. dollar funding they received through these swaps?

The foreign central banks distributed the U.S. dollars they drew through a variety of methods, including variable-rate tenders, fixed-rate tenders, bilateral transactions, and foreign exchange swap tenders against various types of collateral, including both foreign currency and securities denominated in foreign currency. In each case, the arrangement was between the foreign central bank and the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central banks determined the acceptability of the collateral offered and the eligibility of the institutions to participate in the operations they conducted. The terms on which funds were tendered were released to the public by the foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship was with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations.

What revenues and costs arose for the Federal Reserve?

When a foreign central bank drew on its swap line to fund its dollar tender operations, it paid interest to the Federal Reserve in an amount equal to the interest the foreign central bank earned on its tender operations. For its part, the Federal Reserve did not pay interest and committed to hold the foreign currency that it acquired in the swap transaction at the foreign central bank (rather than lending it or investing it in private markets). The structure of the arrangement served to avoid domestic currency reserve management difficulties for foreign central banks that could have arisen if the Federal Reserve had actively invested the foreign currency holdings in the marketplace.

What was the impact of swaps on U.S. monetary operations?

The drawing of U.S. dollars by a foreign central bank resulted in an increase in the level of reserve balances held at the Reserve Banks. Similarly, the repayment of U.S. dollars to the Federal Reserve when a swap was unwound resulted in a drain of these balances.

AMR Bankruptcy, UK Austerity & US Housing Doldrums

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

American Airlines’ parent company, AMR Corp., announced Tuesday that it has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. Britain’s coalition government unveiled sharply lower economic growth forecasts on Tuesday and said it would take much longer than hoped to wipe out its deficit, meaning tough austerity measures would extend beyond the next election due in 2015. Italy’s borrowing costs soared again at a debt auction Tuesday, adding to the pressure on European officials gathering in Brussels for their latest attempt at easing the crisis in the euro area. U.S. single-family home prices declined in September. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.6 percent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

AMR Bankruptcy

American has been widely seen as the weakest of the major airlines for some time now. It has reported a profit in only one quarter since 2007, and it lost $4.8 billion over those 3-1/2 years. AMR said American Airlines, American Eagle and all other subsidiaries will honor all tickets and reservations and operate normal flight schedules during the bankruptcy filing process, using its $4.1 billion in cash. ”Our very substantial cost disadvantage compared to our larger competitors, all of which restructured their costs and debt through Chapter 11, has become increasingly untenable,” said the airline’s statement. The airline also announced that Gerard Arpey, its chairman and CEO, is retiring. He is being succeeded by Thomas Horton, who was named president of the company in July 2010. The airline said that a bankruptcy reorganization is necessary to give it the competitive cost structure it needs and return to profitability. It signaled that it may try to use the bankruptcy process to force lower-cost contracts on its unions. The airline even announced a massive order for 460 jets from Boeing (BA) and Airbus in July in an effort to modernize its fleet. American was the world’s largest air carrier as recently as 2006. But mergers have dropped it to third in terms of miles flown by paying passengers, behind United Continental (UAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) Before Tuesday’s filing, American and Southwest (LUV) were the only major U.S. airlines that had not filed for bankruptcy reorganization. Shares of AMR (AMR,)which had already plunged nearly 80% since the start of the year through Monday’s close, tumbled another 63% to 60 cents a share in pre-market trading. Shareholders are typically wiped out during the bankruptcy process.

UK To Continue Austerity and May Fall Into a Recession

Finance Minister George Osborne, in one of two major annual economic setpieces, warned the British economy risked getting dragged into recession if the euro zone debt crisis was not solved. “If the rest of Europe heads into recession it may prove hard to avoid one here in the UK,” he told parliament. ”Much of Europe appears to be heading into recession caused by a chronic lack of confidence in the ability of countries to deal with their debts. We will do whatever it takes to protect Britain from this debt storm while doing all we can to build the foundations of future growth,” he said. The economy was now forecast to grow by only 0.7 percent next year, way below a March budget forecast of 2.5 percent, Osborne said, presenting figures from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR expects the economy to shrink by 0.1 percent in the last three months of this year. Growth was expected to recover to 2.1 percent in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 2.9 percent, before accelerating to 3.0 percent by 2015.

Osborne said pay rises for public sector workers would be capped at one percent once a two-year pay freeze ends in 2013. Borrowing will fall much less than expected because of slower growth, erasing any margin for error in the government’s plan to erase the structural deficit within five years. The coalition has made erasing a deficit that peaked at 11 percent of national output its priority. Opposition Labour said its strategy had been blown way off course. Labour finance spokesman Ed Balls accused Osborne of a catastrophic error of judgment. Center-left Labour, ousted from power in May 2010, says the coalition is squeezing the life out of the economy by cutting too much and too quickly.

The OECD rich nations’ economic think-tank said on Monday that Britain will slip back into a modest recession early next year. It lowered its 2012 growth forecast to just 0.5 percent and urged the Bank of England to expand its money-printing program. The near-term forecasts are broadly similar to our own but I think the long-term forecasts — out to 2016 — are very optimistic given that fiscal restraints will continue for quite some time and the uncertainty created by the euro zone crisis. The Bank of England will pump an additional 75 billion pounds into the economy in coming months, a Reuters poll indicated on Tuesday, taking the total to 350 billion as it tries to revitalize growth. “The UK is partway through a ‘lost decade’, and I expect that 2012 will be another difficult year,” said Michael Saunders at Citi, who expects the total BoE spend to be at least 500 billion pounds — the highest forecast in the poll.

Recognizing that he has little scope to alter Britain’s short-term economic prospects, Osborne focused on measures that will boost growth in the longer term, such as promoting lending to small businesses and encouraging private sector investment in infrastructure. He plans to tap British pension funds to provide the bulk of up to 30 billion pounds of investment in building projects, while the government will underwrite up to 40 billion pounds of loans to smaller companies struggling for credit.

US Housing Doldrums Remain

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.6 percent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast no change. With each passing year, the former Oracle of the Fed, Alan Greenspan, is reminded that there really was a housing bubble and lowering interest rates to record lows just made matters worse.  Nearly four years after the housing market peak in 2007, record low mortgage rates are no match for falling incomes and 9% unemployment.

U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. Home prices are down 3.9% across the board and are now back to their first quarter of 2003 levels. The market consensus was for a 3% decline year over year. From August to September, housing prices have fallen the most in Atlanta, with a 5.9% decline, followed by Tampa Bay and San Francisco, both with a 1.5% drop in housing prices. Boston, New York, Washington and Los Angeles remain the most expensive cities in the lower 48 states.

The number of U.S. homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages decreased modestly in the third quarter, though levels remained high, data analysis company CoreLogic said Tuesday. The number of properties with so-called negative equity — in which the amount owed on the mortgage exceeds the property’s value — was 10.7 million, or 22.1 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage. That is a slight decrease from 10.9 million, or 22.5 percent, in the second quarter, CoreLogic said. An additional 2.4 million borrowers fell into the near-negative equity camp in the third quarter, defined as those less than 5 percent equity. Hard-hit Nevada had the highest underwater rate with 58.3 percent of mortgages upside down. The top five was rounded out by Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Georgia.

Italian Debt Financing Reaches An All Time High

The Italian treasury sold €7.5 billion of bonds, including three-year bonds at a yield of 7.89 percent, meeting demand for 1.5 times the amount on auction. At an evening session, euro-zone ministers were hoping to nail down guidelines on how to expand the European Financial Stability Facility, the main bailout fund for heavily indebted euro-zone countries. Such a step could in theory make it possible for the fund to begin buying government bonds on a large scale by early next year. The ministers were also expected to approve the release of an €8 billion, or $10.7 billion, loan to Greece — the latest installment in its international rescue package.

Italy’s budget deficit is not huge in comparison with other developed nations, but its debt is among the world’s largest. Considering the burden of repaying that debt, interest rates of that magnitude will not be long sustainable. The auction was held as the lower house of the Italian Parliament was preparing balanced-budget legislation, a key measure for convincing investors and euro-zone partners of its commitment to reeling in its public debt.

Also on Tuesday, Belgium sold €502 million of three-month Treasury bills at an average yield of 2.19 percent, up from the 1.58 percent it paid just two weeks ago. Demand rose to 5.61 times the amount sold from 1.45 times at the previous auction. It also sold €513 million of six-month bills at an average yield of 2.44 percent, more than double the 1.09 percent on Nov. 8. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.76, up from 1.85 times in the prior auction. Belgian borrowing costs rose after Standard & Poor’s on Friday cut its rating on the country’s sovereign debt to AA from AA-plus. In addition to the turmoil that is shaking all the euro-zone countries, the agency cited Belgian’s peculiar problems, which include the fact that it has been without an elected government for the past 19 months, as well as the cost of bailing out Dexia, the French-Belgian bank that last month became the first European bank to be partially nationalized amid the euro crisis.

European ministers Tuesday were planning to address an expansion of their bailout fund, which was meant to raise money by issuing bonds backed by the stronger European countries and loan it to shakier countries facing high interest rates on their debt. It now also plans to offer insurance of up to 30 percent to investors in some European bonds to encourage them to buy.

Markets Recoup Losses From Being Oversold

Monday, November 28th, 2011

The S&P is up more than 37 points to 1196 this morning in sharp contrast to the heavy selling we have seen for the last two weeks. The catalyst for the big up open is optimism based on new proposals to contain the Europe’s debt crisis and a strong start to the US Christmas shopping season. Stocks reached extremely oversold levels last week, setting the stage for this type of bounce that we have grown accustomed to over the last several months. Asia &  European markets are also up big today. On Sunday, Italian daily newspaper La Stampa reported that the International Monetary Fund was considering (rumor) launching an aid program with enough cash to support nearly half of the Italian bond market, sending stocks around the world sharply higher.

Reports claim that the IMF is readying a 600 billion Euro ($794) fund rescue package for Italy, but there has been no confirmation. There have also been reports that the Eurozone’s six Triple-A rated countries are prepared to float joint bonds in order to help fund the region’s indebted members (PIIGS). Investors have started to worry about a worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis, with fears that the Euro currency itself could be eventually scrapped. Germany remains a reluctant participant in bailouts, and it remains to be seen what the end of the rope would be. Analysts believe the entire Eurozone project is at a crucial turning point. Belgium, France and Italy all have important bond issues this week, which will likely play a major part in determining market direction.

Italy is unlikely to stabilize on its own as the size of its debt leaves it heavily exposed to changes in market sentiment in a context where self-reinforcing negative market dynamics are difficult to break with domestic policies alone. With the IMF unlikely to have the resources, the EFSF and more importantly the ECB are likely to be involved as well.

The weekend press was full of reports of what Angela Merkel and Germany are demanding to in order for funds to help solve the debt crisis. A new stability pact, a new Treaty, fiscal union, common corporate tax rates whilst holding countries to account but no joint Eurobonds or change of role for the ECB. France and Nicolas Sarkozy have had to stand side by side with Germany and its reluctance to allow the ECB to start hovering up huge amounts of euro zone debt. In return, it will want the ECB to expand its balance sheet to help stabilize the crisis something Germany has so far resisted.

Hungary Calls On IMF For Financial Support

Friday, November 25th, 2011

In a move anticipated by ACE, Wall Street Grand analyst, Hungary has finally requested for financial support after the country recieved the downgrade blow. Hungary lost its investment-grade rating at Moody’s Investors Service after 15 years as the Cabinet seeks International Monetary Fund help to boost confidence in the European Union’s most-indebted eastern member. The government has scrapped two debt sales and reduced the size of another eight auctions in the last three months as the euro region’s debt crisis deepened. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Cabinet on Nov. 17 asked for IMF “insurance” that doesn’t entail a loan and doesn’t impose conditions.

Read here about first call on Hungary.

The foreign- and local-currency bond ratings were cut one step to Ba1, the highest junk-level score, from Baa3, the company said today in a statement. Moody’s, which awarded Hungary its investment grade in 1996, assigned a negative outlook. The country is rated the lowest investment grade at Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.

“The first driver of today’s downgrade is the uncertainty surrounding the Hungarian government’s ability to meet its targets on fiscal consolidation and public sector debt reduction,” Moody’s said in its statement. “Hungary’s recent requests for assistance from the IMF and the EU illustrate the funding challenges facing the country.” The forint is the world’s worst-performing currency against the euro over the past six months with a 14 percent drop, and plunged to a record-low 317.92 per euro on Nov. 14. It traded at 313.82 at 7:39 a.m. Tokyo time. The central bank on Nov. 15 warned it may need to raise interest rates to support the currency.

Investors are shunning riskier countries’ bonds as Italy, which has a bigger debt load than Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal combined, struggles to ward off contagion from a debt crisis that started in Greece more than two years ago and threatens to infect weaker economies.

Hungary was the first EU member to obtain an IMF-led bailout in 2008 and had the highest government debt level among the bloc’s eastern members last year at 81 percent of gross domestic product. Since winning elections last year, Orban had rejected obtaining IMF help, saying he wanted more freedom to pursue “unorthodox” policies aimed at cutting Hungary’s debt level, while trying to meet a campaign pledge to end years of austerity measures. Asking the IMF for help would be “a sign of weakness,” Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy told Heti Valasz in its Oct. 27 issue. Orban’s steps included raising revenue by effectively nationalizing $14 billion of assets held by private-pension funds, levying extraordinary taxes on the banking, energy, retail and telecommunication industries and forcing banks to swallow exchange-rate losses on foreign-currency mortgages. The steps were aimed partly to plug budget holes resulting from a cut in personal income and corporate tax rates. The Constitutional Court was stripped of its right to rule in most economic issues. An independent Fiscal Council was dismantled and a new one set up dominated by Orban’s allies.

“We want insurance and we don’t want to tie our hands,” in reference to a “new type” of IMF agreement Hungary is seeking, Orban said this week on MR1 radio. “No one can limit Hungary’s economic sovereignty, that’s the basic tenet of the government’s philosophy.” The government is also carrying out spending cuts, including drug subsidies, and increasing taxes to meet budget goals. The Cabinet announced plans to cut outlays by as much as $4 billion a year by 2013. The government also plans to raise taxes next year, including the value-added tax and excises.

Orban has argued that his “unorthodox” policies are needed to lower debt and reduce the budget deficit to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product next year, below the EU’s 3 percent limit. The Cabinet forecasts 1.5 percent growth next year, which it may cut later this year if Germany, Hungary’s biggest export market, pares its forecast. Hungary’s economy may expand 0.5 percent in 2012 as the government’s tax and spending measures will probably slow growth, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said on Nov. 10. The debt level may drop to 75.9 percent of GDP this year because of one-off revenue from nationalized pension assets before rising to 76.5 percent next year, partly as a result of a weakening forint, the commission said.

German Bond Sales Disappointing-World Markets Fall

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011

When it all seemed in October that the Eurozone periphery issues were resolved, another setback comes to the forth-front. The resolutions to the Eurozone debt were not formerly written into law, therefore markets remain skittish and volatile. Judging from the “disastrous” German bond sale on Wednesday sparked fears that Europe’s debt crisis was even starting to threaten Berlin. The debt crisis is burrowing ever deeper, like a sand crab, and is now reaching Germany. The German debt agency was forced to retain almost half of a sale of 6 billion euros due to a shortage of bids by investors. The result pushed the cost of borrowing over 10 years for the bloc’s paymaster above those for the United States for the first time since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply, -200 points to 11,295 while the S&P is down 22 to 1166. Leaders of the euro zone’s two biggest economies still firmly at odds over a longer-term structural solution.

The new bond promised to pay out a 2.0 percent interest rate — the lowest ever on an issue of German 10-year Bunds. The auction’s average yield was 1.98 percent, down from 2.09 percent for the previous benchmark in October. Ten-year Bund yields were last up 12 basis points to 2.039 percent versus 1.946 percent for U.S. T-notes.

Investors were also unnerved by reports that Belgium is leaning on France to pay more into emergency support for failed lender Dexia under a 90-billion-euro ($120 billion) rescue deal that had appeared done and dusted. A special report by Fitch Ratings suggested France had limited room left to absorb shocks to its finances like a new downturn in growth or support for banks without endangering its cherished AAA credit status.

Investors were also spooked by a report showing China’s factory sector shrank the most in 32 months in November as new orders slumped, reviving worries China may be skidding towards an economic hard landing. German manufacturing also contracted for a second straight month in November.

Fed QE Talk & Bank Stress Tests

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011

The Federal Reserve on Nov. 2 held interest rates unchanged and decided to continue its “Twist” program of shifting $400 billion in its bond portfolio toward longer maturities and continue reinvesting maturing principal payments into mortgage-backed securities.

Minutes from that meeting show the internal debate raging as to how best to guide markets, businesses and consumers about future rate decisions. “Many” participants saw the merits of specifying an explicit long-term inflation goal, informally pegged at around 2%, but the central bank is fretting that doing so would mislead the public into thinking it’s giving greater weight toward its mandate of price stability than its other mandate of full employment.

“Many participants pointed to the merits of specifying an explicit longer-run inflation goal, but it was noted that such a step could be misperceived as placing greater weight on price stability than on maximum employment; consequently, some suggested that a numerical inflation goal would need to be set forth within a context that clearly underscored the Committee’s commitment to fostering both parts of its dual mandate,” the minutes say.

The central bank has already pledged to keep interest rates at low levels through the middle of 2013. With rates between 0% and 0.25%, the central bank has been experimenting with a range of actions designed to give further monetary policy boost to a languishing economy. The Fed will want to get this communication rat’s nest figured out as soon as possible so that the decks are clear, if needed, for QE3.

The Federal Reserve announced plans for a new round of stress test on US banks, including the six largest, to see if they could withstand a possible market shock, such as an escalation of the European debt crisis.The Fed said its global market shock test for those banks will be generally based on price and rate movements that occurred in the second half of 2008, and also on additional stresses related to the ongoing situation in Europe.

The six big banks to be tested are Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The heightened stress test for those banks are part of a larger supervisory test the Fed will conduct on 19 firms’ capital plans. The Fed’s review of those plans will determine whether the banks can raise dividends or repurchase stock. The banks must submit their capital plans by Jan. 19, 2012.

The Fed has performed periodic stress tests on the 19 largest banks it supervises starting in the spring of 2009. The initial stress test reassured investors that America’s biggest banks had the resources to get through the recession and the 2008 financial crisis.

Weaker Revised 3rd Quarter US GDP

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011

A lower-than-expected US GDP figure dampened market sentiment. The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace than previously estimated in the third quarter, as gross domestic product grew at a 2.0 percent annual rate, according to the Commerce Department, down from the previously estimated 2.5 percent. The Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 32. Yields jumped dramatically in an auction of three-month and six-month Spanish treasury bills, with investors still nervous despite a victory of the center-right against socialists in elections last Sunday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) fell 73.35 points, or -0.63%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 7.43 points, or 0.62%.

A fall in inventories, the first in almost two years, dragged on the economy during the July to September period, with a $8.5bn decrease shaving 1.55 percentage points from growth, more than the previous estimate of 1.1 percentage points. Slowing imports also weighed, as growth came in at 0.5 per cent compared with 1.4 per cent in the second quarter.

The inventory decline and import deceleration likely reflected the impact of supply disruptions following the March earthquake in Japan. A pick-up in both categories could be seen in the fourth quarter. Consumption growth, which contributes about 70 per cent of growth, edged down slightly to 2.3 per cent from an earlier estimate of 2.4 per cent, but was still driven by strong demand for durable goods including cars. That added 1.6 percentage points to overall growth.

As the stimulus from the fiscal initiative faded, growth is settling back to a very low level. As the Debt “Deleveraging Cycle” takes hold, it will be difficult for the economy to grow naturally. The economy has lost two sources of growth: catch-up from the recession and reduction in spending at all levels of government.The government funding squeeze is likely to worsen, following Monday’s announcement that the US congressional committee responsible for striking a deal to reduce the nation’s deficit ended in failure. That news has sparked renewed fears over budgetary paralysis as the parties dig in ahead of the 2012 election. Analysts said the lack of a deal could reduce prospects for additional stimulus measures next year.

Debt Contagion Is Spreading

Monday, November 21st, 2011

Major indices plunged more than 2 percent, with financials and energy leading the way lower in the holiday-shortened trading week. This morning, there are more problems coming out of the European Union. Not only are yields spiking higher in European debt, but there are possible downgrades coming in France. Moody’s has warned that France could lose it’s AAA credit rating if the French 10 year bond yield spikes higher. Germany is also resisting the sale of Euro-bonds which will need all 17 countries in the EU to approve. The S&P is decidedly lower by 28.00 points to 1187. Expect continued volatility throughout the trading day. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he doubted the survival of the European single currency, while the Spanish government fell in a weekend election.

After suffering through a miserable week fueled by worries that the eurozone crisis was spreading from troubled nations like Greece and Italy into healthier ones such as Spain, investors continued to pull money off the table amid the political woes in Washington. A 12-member supercommittee tasked with cutting $1.2 trillion from the $15 trillion national debt stumbled towards its Wednesday deadline, with leaders on both sides of the aisle expressing pessimism that Monday would bring a deal. Today is essentially the deadline for a proposal, which would need 48 hours of congressional review before a vote.

That contributed to fears that recession is coming closer to reality for Europe, and the contagion is spreading. Europe is now facing a credit crunch of rather large proportions, and this is also why the recession is likely to be more likely. The crisis in the euro zone has exposed the flaws of the 17-member currency union, and its leaders will need to take urgent action if they want the euro to survive, Buffett told CNBC on Monday. Buffett added there was “doubt now” as to whether the euro would survive the current crisis.

Rhode Island Approves Pension Overhaul

Friday, November 18th, 2011

In an overwhelming approval a major overhaul of Rhode Island’s pension system for public sector employees passed in both houses of the state’s Democratic-controlled General Assembly Thursday in a special session. The legislation passed 57-15 in the House and 34-2 in the Senate. Lawmakers however expressed distaste even as they voted for the measure, aimed at addressing rising pension costs. The sweeping nature of the reform may inspire similar efforts in other states grappling with large unfunded pension obligations. Rhode Island’s retirement changes, which plan to cut its unfunded pension liability by 41 percent, may spur other states to take similar actions. Watch out CINN or commonly know as California,Illinois, New York, New Jersey,as the most indebted states. Rhode Island is one of only two states to have less than 50 percent of the funding needed to cover benefits that public sector employees have already accrued.

This is a part 2 series of my initial report (here) on Rhode Islands debt issues. As Europe is grappled with issues of their own, states in the US should quickly but quietly move forward in cutting down expenses are end the same dire doldrums of the Europeans.

The legislation, called the Rhode Island Retirement Security Act, would suspend cost-of-living adjustments for those collecting state pensions and raise the retirement age for most employees. Governor Lincoln Chafee, an independent, is expected to sign the “expansive” pension changes into law within the week, following the Legislature’s approval yesterday, Fitch said. The law would reduce the state’s unfunded pension obligation by $3 billion, leaving it at $4.3 billion, in part by altering retirement benefits for current, future and retired public employees.

Changes will take effect in the fiscal year starting July 1 and aim to fully fund the state’s pension systems by 2035. The plan involves changing to “a hybrid defined benefit/defined contribution plan. Rhode Island, with a population of about 1.05 million, currently has only half the assets needed to cover retirement costs over the coming decades. A Hybrid system for state employees and teachers, mixing a traditional pension with a retirement account similar to a 401k. The bill is unusual in that it affects current employees and retirees as well as new hires.

The state is one of 33 with public pensions that hold less than 80 percent of the assets needed to pay promised benefits over the next few decades. The 80 percent level is a common threshold of sustainability used by actuaries. In states such as New Jersey and Florida, lawmakers this year have forced workers to pay more into retirement funds.

Without changes, Raimondo’s office expected taxpayer costs for pension plans would double to $600 million next year before ballooning to more than $1 billion a year in just over 10 years. Raimondo’s office also worried that pension obligations could lead to downgrades for state and municipal bond ratings.

Here’s a BIG Problem that the Bill did not focus on. This is of concern which may lead to these independent municaplities to declare bankruptcy as Jefferson County just recently announced.

The bill that passed did not address an area that Chafee, an independent, considered a key concern. There are 24 towns and cities in Rhode Island that administer pension plans independent of the state, and many of those are less funded than state plans. The original draft of the legislation included a framework to force those plans to become solvent. The version that passed contained a weaker form of the provisions, mainly requiring municipalities to commission studies of their pension plans.

US Deficit-Cutting – Deadline In 5 Days

Friday, November 18th, 2011

A 12-member “super committee” in Congress has until midnight Wednesday to strike a deal that would save at least $1.2 trillion over 10 years. Members say they think a deal is still possible, but privately aides are more pessimistic. Friday is shaping up to be a make-or-break day, one super committee member said. ”We should know by end of today, and I’ll give myself until 11:59 p.m., as to whether or not there will be a deal,” Democratic U.S. Representative Xavier Becerra of California said at a renewable-energy conference. On Friday morning, super committee members emphasized their areas of disagreement even as they said a deal was possible.

Unlike budget standoffs in April and August, failure would not lead to a government shutdown or a sovereign debt default. Instead, automatic spending cuts of $1.2 trillion over 10 years, split evenly between military and domestic programs, would kick in starting in 2013. Many Republicans, along with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, warn that those cuts could compromise national security. Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, a leading Republican on the super committee, said on Thursday he would try to modify them, presumably to ease their impact on the military. Programs for the poor and the elderly, such as Medicare  and food stamps, would be largely shielded from the automatic cuts. Democrats say the automatic cuts, known as a sequester, should stay in place.

Democrats also believe they have an advantage because tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush are due to expire at the end of 2012, and Republicans want to overhaul the tax code before then to avoid higher rates for the wealthy.

There is a third option. Super committee members could set aside divisive issues like taxes and benefits and put together a much smaller package containing measures both sides easily can agree upon, such as selling off radio and television frequencies and cutting federal pensions and farm subsidies. That would reduce the severity of the automatic spending cuts.