Archive for December, 2011

Best Stocks & Sectors Of 2011

Friday, December 30th, 2011

As we round out 2011, let’s put this tumultuous year in review. It was the year of Social media frenzy IPO’s, regime change, European debt crisis beginning to unravel, US rating downgrade, and the year USA finally found Osama bin Laden. When the going gets tough, opportunities remain bountiful. 2011 has not exactly turned out the way many market pundits expected at the start of the year. The economy has slowed down to near-recession levels, the flight to safety has bond yields down to almost nothing, and most sectors remain under pressure. Still, there are almost always some stocks that manage to perform well despite the overall market. Wall Street Grand has evaluated the best performing stocks for 2011 based on year-to-date performance that fit within liquidity and size parameters and eliminating the mergers and acquisitions. Investors will be happy to put 2011 to bed. The markets had a choppy year to say the least. From Japan’s devastating earthquake to Europe’s worsening debt crisis to the ongoing bickering in Washington, stocks experienced some violent swings so it’s little wonder that investors are hoping for a quiet end to the year. Banks had the biggest drop among 19 industry groups this year, sliding 33 percent, on growing concern that the fiscal crisis will force at least one nation to default on its debt. Health-care and food stocks advanced as investors sought companies whose earnings are less tied to economic growth.    

If you missed the worst stocks of 2011 read here
 
 
Some investors might have guesses that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is among those stocks that are up the most, especially after it hit yet another all-time high this week. But Apple and its 27% move this year  does not even come close. We screened out companies with market capitalization rates above $300million mark at some point this year and we put a $5.00 minimum share price in this screen as well. We also set an average daily volume of 500,000 shares.

New Governments

New governments took charge in Greece and Italy last month, raising optimism that the region’s two most-indebted nations will implement austerity measures. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won approval for the final 2012 budget designed to regain the confidence of creditors and secure resumption of international financing. 

Treasuries and Bonds Best Performer of 2011

Treasuries rose, poised for their biggest annual gain since 2008, as investors sought the relative safety of U.S. government bonds on concern the euro-region debt crisis will worsen. U.S. debt has returned 9.6 percent in 2011, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data, even after Standard & Poor’s cut the nation’s AAA rating on Aug. 5. German bunds also gained 9.6 percent, Japanese bonds advanced 2.1 percent and U.S. corporate debt rallied 7.3 percent. Treasuries are poised to beat stocks, commodities and the dollar for the year, even as reports indicate the U.S. economy is recovering. 

Stock Winners of 2011

2011 was the year of consolidation between competitors. In this portfolio review we have eliminated stocks that have been acquired or merged such as the likes VRUS and EP. We screened companies with market capitalization rates above $300million and we put a $5.00 minimum share price in this screen as well. We also set an average daily volume of 500,000 shares.    

Silicon Motion Technology Corp (SIMO) +392.24%    

Inhibitex, Inc (INHX) +308.46%    

Golar LNG Ltd (GLNG) +207.83%    

Medivation, Inc (MDVN) +207.05%    

Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc (QCOR) +185.68%    

Pharmacyclics Inc (PCYC) +147.70%    

Elan Corporation (ELN) +141.71%    

Select Comfort Corporation (SCSS) +141.07%    

Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARIA) +140.39%    

Oncothyreon Inc (ONTY) +133.44%    

Domino’s Pizza, Inc (DPZ) +115.55%    

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPPI) +113.25%    

Richmont Mines Inc (RIC) +105.48%    

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG) +103.73%    

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) +95.07%    

Rounding the top 30 stocks is considered the BEST IPO stock of 2011    

GNC Holdings (GNC) +74.27%   

Best Sectors for 2011 (Utilities winner in 2011)

Utilities +13.47%   

Healthcare +10.04%   

Services +4.53%   

Consumer Goods +2.76%   

Conglomerates -3.39%   

Technology -3.40%   

Industrial Goods -4.46%   

Basic Materials -10.45%   

Financials -18.71%

Futures 2011 Performance YTD

Feeder Cattle +20.5%

30 YR Bond +18.6%

Heating Oil +15.3%

Pork Bellies +13.6%

Live Cattle +13.2%

Gold +11%

Crude Oil +8.9%

10 YR T-Notes +8.8%

DJIA +5.9%

USD +1.5%

Coffee -6.0%

Silver -8.7%

Nikkei 225 -17.5%

Platinum -21.1%

Copper -22.6%

Natural GAs -32.0%

Cotton -36.6%    

***Below is a live link feed of the futures from FINVIZ.COM

Italian Long Term Bond Auction Lifts Markets

Thursday, December 29th, 2011

Stocks continued to climb Thursday as the euro erased its drop versus the greenback and after a handful of better-than-expected economic data, but volume remained thin in the final week of trading for the year. The S&P is up 10 points to that stubborn 1260 resistance, but holding firmly. Italy sold just over 7 billion euros ($9 billion) in an auction of longer-term debt, with yields falling. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds fell from the euro era highs reached in November, settling slightly below the market-sensitive level of 7 percent in an auction on Thursday. Investors were looking to the auction of longer term Italian bonds to see whether appetite for the country’s debt had returned, after yields halved in the sale of six-month T-bills on Wednesday. The euro pared its early losses against the dollar to rise back above $1.29, but ongoing concerns about the euro zone crisis kept the currency close to a 15-month low. Gold slumped to its lowest level in almost six months to near $1,530 an ounce.

With only two full trading sessions left in the year, trading volume is expected to remain light throughout the shortened holiday week as most investors are unlikely to make large bets until after the New Year. Major averages have also been struggling to finish the year in positive territory. Of the three major averages, the Dow is the only index in the black for the year while the S&P is straddling the flatline.

Top line resistance in S&P 1330-1340

All bets are off if supports breaks 1200

Monti’s response after Italy’s auction

from FT

Italy has saved itself “from the edge of the precipice”, Mario Monti declared yesterday, defending the record of his six-week-old government while calling on the European Union to deliver a coherent response to the eurozone debt crisis by substantially increasing its bail-out fund. Italy’s technocrat prime minister used a traditional end-of-year press conference to reach beyond his domestic audience and deliver a strong message to the markets and his European partners – describing himself as the “most German of Italian economists” and insisting that Rome’s current high borrowing costs were not justified by its fundamentals.

Mr Monti said that under “normal conditions” – which he declined to specify – Italy would not need more austerity measures along the lines of the €30bn package approved by parliament last week intended to balance the budget by 2013. The government’s next focus, he said, would be a package of measures to regain lost competitiveness by liberalising the economy, particularly service industries and the labour market. First steps would be presented before an EU summit on January 23.

Mixing his metaphors, the former professor of economics and EU competition commissioner said Italy had been “on the edge of the precipice without a railing” and had been moving “very close to Greece” in a south-easterly direction. Italy had braced itself and was now moving with the winds behind it “to the north-west, towards Brussels and far from Greece”. “But the turbulence is absolutely not over,” he said. He directed his remarks at his fellow EU heads of government, particularly in Berlin – whom he recalled he had urged to do more to explain to their public the benefits they derive from the eurozone.

S&P Hits 1266 Resistance; Markets Fall

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

U.S. stocks dropped Wednesday, sending the S&P back into the red for 2011, as concerns about Italy’s long-term debt auction on Thursday pushed the euro below the $1.30 level. Investors were pulling back from risk ahead of an Italian auction of longer-term government debt on Thursday. Before the opening bell Wednesday, U.S. stock futures were gearing up for a higher open, thanks to a successful auction of short-term Treasury bills in Italy. Demand for Italian six-month bills increased from the previous auction, and the average yield of 3.251% was half of the 6.504% average, a euro-era high, paid a month earlier for the same maturity.

But that optimism faded as the euro tumbled and yields for longer-term Italian debt marched higher throughout the U.S. morning. Italy’s 10-year yield traded recently at 6.944% as investors looked ahead to Thursday’s auction, close to the 7% threshold that economists consider unsustainable. Adding to the concern, the European Central Bank’s overnight deposit facility reached a second-straight record raising worries that banks would rather park cash there rather than lend it to other banks. The euro fell as low as $1.2954, down 0.9% for the session and just short of the 11-month low of $1.2945 it reached in mid-December. As traders fled the common currency and other risk-sensitive assets in thin holiday markets, the dollar was boosted against nearly every major currency except a broadly stronger yen. However, some investors warned that thin markets tend to exacerbate price movements during year-end trading.

Italy sold 9 billion euros ($11.8 billion) in 6-month T-bills, with a yield of 3.25 percent compared with November’s euro era high of 6.5 percent.

The SPX or SPY remains bullish above the ascending triangle. A break below 1200 will say otherwise.

Worst Performing Stocks of 2011

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

As we close out the year, 2011 had been an incredibly choppy year, the economy is flirting between snail-paced growth and recession, and many companies and entire sectors are experiencing some severe business pressures or their management teams have made severe missteps. In a year when Europe’s sovereign debt woes dominated headlines, it’s no surprise that financial stocks took a beating. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs did not go unscathed, as layoffs, an uproar over bank fees and management shakeups took their toll. We want to go over the worst of stocks of 2011 based upon year-to-date performance.This group was focused on companies that trade with a market capitalization of more than $300 million and we screened out the companies which are either not liquid of roughly 500,000 average shares a day. This information was gathered off the site FinViz.

Frontline Ltd. (FRO)  -83.23%  

The Governor and Company of The Bank of Ireland (IRE) -83.03%

E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (DANG) -82.93%   

Renren Inc. (RENN) -81.44%

ITT Corporation (ITT) -80.25%  

Central European Distribution Corp. (CEDC) -80.04%  

Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) -78.32%  

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) -76.05%  

National Bank of Greece SA (NBG) -75.24%  

VanceInfo Technologies Inc. (VIT) -74.41%  

OfficeMax Incorporated (OMX) -73.67%  

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) -73.34%   

Meritor, Inc. (MTOR) -71.83%  

Mechel OAO (MTL) -71.37%  

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP) -71.06% 

Santa Claus Rally Holding But Volatility Remains

Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

U.S. stocks rising Thursday, gaining after the government reported jobless claims last week fell to a multi-year low and as consumer sentiment rose in December. The count of first-time filings for unemployment benefits last week declined to 364,000, the lowest level since April 2008. Separately, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading of confidence rose to 69.9 in December from 64.1 at the end of last month. Confidence was probably raised due to the fact that gas prices at the pump dropped.

BUT, the government said economic growth had slowed to 1.8 percent in the third quarter, primarily because consumers had pulled back. A decline in leading indicators and a drop in housing prices failed to propel the markets higher.

Housing could be in the spotlight again, after data this week showed a jump in new housing starts and building permits but lackluster sales data, compounded by sharp downward revisions necessitated after the National Association of Realtors admitted to over-counting sales during the market’s collapse. Stifel Nicolaus issued a warning Wednesday on the builders, advising investors to sell into strength.

Traders closely watched technical levels to see if the S&P could break its 200-day moving average and get a sustained Santa Claus rally going into the end of the year. Any real break above 1260 will send the average to 1300 relatively quickly and with the ‘feel good’ tone it would not be surprising to see” a holiday rally. Keep in mind that low volumes will create more volatility and the market can turn on a dime.

Italy’s Senate passed a vote of confidence in the government of Prime Minister Mario Monti on Thursday that put the final seal on an emergency austerity budget rushed through to restore market confidence in the euro zone’s third biggest economy. The budget is intended to reverse a collapse of market confidence which has pushed Italy’s borrowing costs to untenable levels and put it at the heart of Europe’s debt crisis.

ECB Sets Up $638 Billion Bank Fund

Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

The 523 euro-area lenders took a record 489 billion euros ($638 billion) from the Frankfurt-based central bank in 1,134- day loans today, more than economists’ median estimate of 293 billion euros. That equals about 63 percent of the European bank debt maturing in 2012.  By flooding the banking system with cheap money, policy makers are attempting to stave off a looming credit crunch by encouraging banks to maintain lending. easing immediate fears of a credit crunch but leaving unresolved how much will flow to needy euro zone economies.

Politicians, including French President Nicholas Sarkozy, are also pushing the banks to use the cash, which is borrowed at a current interest rate of 1 percent, to purchase higher-yielding southern European sovereign debt, thereby forcing down borrowing costs in the region. Barclays Plc estimates the lending will inject 193 billion euros of new money into the system, with 296 billion euros accounted for by maturing loans. Euro-area banks need to refinance more than 600 billion euros of debt maturing next year, about three-quarters of which is unsecured.

While a lending crunch may have been avoided thanks to the ECB’s latest move, it is much less certain that banks will use the money to buy Italian and Spanish government debt.

Banks will not increase their exposure to sovereign debt because European Bank Authority (EBA) rules discourage it, Italy’s banking association (ABI) said. “The EBA rules are a deterrent for buying sovereign bonds, so not even the ECB’s important liquidity injection … can be used to support sovereign debt,” ABI director general Giovanni Sabatini told reporters. 

Given those doubts, most market experts say only more aggressive and direct buying of government bonds by the ECB will help ameliorate the crisis, something it is reluctant to do. Italy alone faces about 150 billion euros of debt refinancing between April and March and data on Wednesday showed its economy – the euro zone’s third largest – shrank in the third quarter, while the ABI forecast a recession next year.

Santa Rally Starts Today; S&P Up 3%

Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

Attention everybody!!!! The Santa Claus rally has just begun with a stocking stuffer!!! The rally provided opportunity for end-of-year window dressing and an opportunity for investors to snag some beaten-down big names.After a gloomy start to the week, the bulls have come roaring back today. Despite a major M&A disappointment for AT&T (T), which has finally abandoned its much-contested T-Mobile bid, traders are cheering a round of upbeat housing data and some good news out of the euro zone. Ahead of the bell, sentiment was lifted by a robust reading on German business sentiment, as well as a successful Spanish bond auction. Meanwhile, on the home front, the Commerce Department reported that housing starts surged 9.3% in November, tagging their highest annual pace since April 2010. Likewise, building permits jumped 5.7% last month. Against this bullish backdrop, stocks are broadly higher this afternoon.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,103) has tacked on 337  points, or 2.87%. The S&P (SPX – 1,241) is up 35.98 points or 3%. It’s a relief rally. We were down so many days in a row here and a lot of people were short. You have a big up day, the shorts scramble to cover. Is this a long term bull rally. Still yet to be seen. As it stands the following resistance points in the S&P with the correlation of SPY:

Resistance at 200 MA at 1268 (SPY 125.50)

Support at 50 MA at 1200 (SPY 120)

 

BAC Breaks $5; Eastman Kodak $1; Saab Bankruptcy

Monday, December 19th, 2011

Bank of America’s shares closed below $5 per share Monday, their lowest level since the worst of the financial crisis in March 2009. Bank of America (BAC) fell more than 5% to as low as $4.92 in late afternoon trading. Saab Automobile AB, the 64-year-old quirky Swedish automaker that turned out thousands of hatchbacks, has come to the end of the road. The automaker filed for bankruptcy Monday and said it expects to liquidate. Eastman Kodak (EK) shares are taking a hit today with a double-whammy of bad news. The Wall Street Journal reports that the company is running into problems in its attempts to sell parts of its patent portfolio and borrow money. The newspaper said the company is trying to do both to avoid a Chapter 11 filing.

Investors fear that the move below $5, a psychological level, could also cause some investors to shed their holdings. Shares closed at $4.99. Stocks trading below $5 historically have a hard time recovering. You run the danger of a dead stock. Below the $5 threshold, many broker-dealers will not allow investors to buy or short a stock on margin. Buying on margin means that an investor can simply put down 50% of the price of a stock initially, and the trading firm advances the rest.

With its sub-$5 stock price and its stock down more than 62% this year, Bank of America could follow Citigroup’s lead and consider a reverse stock split. This move doesn’t change the value of the company. Instead a reverse split lowers the number of shares, but puts them all at a higher value.

In March 2011, with its stock at $4.50, Citigroup announced it would do a reverse stock split. In doing so, it reduced its 29 billion outstanding shares to 2.9 billion, and multiplied its share price by 10. In other words, the market value of the bank did not change.
Still, even with a $24 share price now, Citigroup’s investors have lost 45% since the March announcement. Bank of America’s shares are still relatively far from the stock’s all-time intraday low of $2.53 hit on Feb. 20, 2009. Traders and analysts said much of the selling was due to negative headlines coming out of Europe as well as reports that tougher regulations on banks could come to pass sooner than expected.

SAAB, since March, has struggled to stay alive as it hasn’t been able to raise enough money to build cars. In recent months, Saab sought to sell itself to Chinese investors as a last-ditch move to raise funds to survive. But the deal was blocked by its former parent General Motors Co., which provided key technology to Saab and still holds preferred shares in the automaker. GM refused to go along with the move, citing intellectual property concerns. Saab CEO Victor Muller, owner of Dutch luxury car company Spyker Cars, personally filed the bankruptcy application to a District Court in Vänersborg in southwestern Sweden.

Saab has 188 U.S. dealers and 16 other facilities that provide service only. Saab sold just 356 vehicles in the U.S. in November. Saab North America spokeswoman Michele Tinson said warranties have “been indefinitely suspended for new sales and claims stopped for current” warranties. The company’s North American board is now set to meet Tuesday.

The hedge funds that are in discussions with Kodak have cut the amount of funding they are will to offer the company, and if Kodak does not close deals on its patent sales soon, the amount the hedge funds are offering may not be enough to keep the company going. A U.S. arbiter for trade disputes is delaying a ruling on Eastman Kodak Co.’s high-stakes patent-infringement claim against smartphone makers Apple Inc. and Research in Motion Ltd.

The embattled photography pioneer is trying to negotiate a licensing deal it estimates could be worth up to $1 billion. An administrative judge overseeing the two-year dispute at the U.S. International Trade Commission set a new target date of Sept. 21, 2012. The commission in Washington, D.C., had previously expected to issue a final decision by Dec. 30.

A favorable ruling would be a boon to Kodak. Pummeled by Wall Street over its dwindling cash reserves — and its stumbling attempts to reinvent itself as a profitable player in digital imaging and printing the Rochester, N.Y., company warned last month it could run out of cash in a year if it doesn’t raise new financing or sell assets. Since July, Kodak has been hawking 1,100 digital-imaging patents that many financial analysts think might fetch $2 billion to $3 billion. Kodak shares sank 16 cents, or 19.9 percent, to close at 67 cents Monday. Shares are down 88 percent in 2011.

Kodak’s cash reserves shrank 10 percent to $862 million in the third quarter. In November, it set a year-end cash target of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion that excludes any intellectual-property licensing deals, down from a previous forecast of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.

Here was a post from March 10, 2010 about EK here

Draghi Senses A Eurozone Break-Up

Monday, December 19th, 2011

The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, warns that struggling eurozone countries that quit the EU would face greater economic pain. This is the first time a president of the ECB has come out and talked about a scenario where the EU would break up. Former ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, used to describe the scenario as “absurd” when asked about it. Countries that left and devalued their currency would create “a big inflation” and fail to escape from structural reforms that would still have to be implemented “but in a much weaker position”.

To fight the crisis, Mr Draghi stressed the importance of unprecedented measures taken by the ECB to shore-up eurozone banks – which include its first ever offer of unlimited three-year loans. He emphasized, however, that the region’s politicians had to take the lead in rebuilding investor confidence in eurozone public finances – by ensuring fiscal discipline and making fully operational Europe’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility.

Most European politicians and economists argue that the only solution to the debt crisis is a massive escalation of the ECB’s government bond purchasing program. There are some in the ECB though who don’t like the bond purchasing program. Jurgen Stark, the bank’s top German executive, is resigning at the end of the year due to his objections of the bond purchasing program. The ECB will continue to use the program.

The ECB also ruled out any U.S style quantitative easing. The bank will continue with large government bond purchases to boost economic growth even if the euro zone fell into a deep recession. “The important thing is to restore the trust of the people – citizens as well as investors – in our continent. We won’t achieve that by destroying the credibility of the ECB.”

Fitch Affirms France’s AAA Rating

Friday, December 16th, 2011

The stock market rally faded as morning turned into afternoon, as a steep slide for IBM shared dragged the Dow into negative numbers. Fitch Ratings lowered its outlook on France’s triple-A rating to “negative” from “stable,” indicating there is a 50-50 chance the nation could lose its top investment-grade rating over the next two years. The move came as Fitch also placed its ratings on six other euro-zone nations, including Spain and Italy, on watch for downgrade after it concluded a “comprehensive solution” the region’s debt crisis is “technically and politically beyond reach.” Fitch said it doesn’t expect to resolve the negative outlook until 2013—unless there is a material shock—most likely related to a worsening of the euro-zone crisis. In US new, the House has passed a $1 trillion-plus catchall budget bill paying for day-to-day budgets of 10 Cabinet departments and averting a government shutdown.

In cutting its outlook on France, Fitch said it reflects its view that the likelihood of liabilities arising from the worsening economic and financial situation in the euro zone has materially increased. Fitch also said that in its view, France is the most exposed to further intensification of the crisis relative to other euro-zone members with its ratings. The credit-rating firm also noted that France’s ratio of government debt to gross domestic project is expected to peak at about 92% in 2014, a higher rate than other triple-A rated nations—with the exception of the U.K. and the U.S.

In affirming its triple-A rating, Fitch said France is underpinned by a wealthy and diverse economy and effective institutions and the country has taken steps to strengthen the creditability of its fiscal consolidation effort. The company also doesn’t see substantial fiscal liabilities arising from the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis or other shocks. However, since May when Fitch last affirmed France’s ratings, the euro-zone crisis has intensified and the outlook for the nation’s economic 2012 growth has fallen to 0.7% from 2.1%, with a 25% chance of an economic downturn. The ratings firm also put on downgrade watch several investment-grade-rated euro-zone nations that already had a negative outlook. In addition to Italy and Spain, that action snared Belgium, Slovenia, Ireland and Cyprus. Fitch said it expects to complete the review by the end of January. It said it would likely downgrade the ratings by one or two notches.

Belgium, rated double-A-plus, is the highest-rated sovereign of the group, while triple-B-rated Cyprus is the lowest. Fitch’s moves follow Standard & Poor’s action earlier this month to put the long-term sovereign-debt ratings of 15 euro-zone nations on negative watch. Fellow rating firm Moody’s Corp. earlier said it plans to review European sovereign ratings in early 2012.

The House has passed a $1 trillion-plus catchall budget bill paying for day-to-day budgets of 10 Cabinet departments and averting a government shutdown. It will keep the government running through Sept. 30 — but a separate agreement aimed at avoiding a Social Security payroll tax increase Jan. 1 remained elusive.
The 296-121 vote to approve the measure represented a rare moment of bipartisanship in a polarized Capitol. Lawmakers are also seeking compromise on separate legislation to renew jobless benefits and a cut in payroll taxes. The bill trims most domestic agencies and awards the Pentagon the smallest budget hike in recent memory. It pays for overseas military operations and a slew of programs ranging from border security to flood control to combating AIDS and famine in Africa.