Archive for January, 2012

Result Of The EU Summit; Housing Prices Dip Again

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

Meeting in Brussels, on Monday, European Union leaders agreed to implement the European Stability Mechanism, a permanent rescue fund, in July. The first summit of the year ended without new solutions for the debt crisis in Greece. Without a deal with private-sector creditors, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds, and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that’s due March 20. The €500 billion ESM was originally set to enter into force next year, when a temporary bailout fund expires.  The leaders of all but two members of the 27-nation EU also agreed to sign a fiscal pact, which was designed to prevent governments from running excessive deficits and racking up unsustainable debts. U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground Monday afternoon, but struggled to pull out of the red as concerns over Greece continued to weigh on the market. Stocks initially opened higher amid renewed hopes for a Greek deal and after the approval of a new euro zone budget discipline pact. Stocks then erased their early gains Tuesday following a handful of weaker-than-expected earnings and economic news.

However, gains were limited by the mounting tension surrounding Portugal’s debt woes, with the nation’s two-year bond yields hitting a euro-era record above 21 percent. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s warned it may downgrade “a number of highly rated” G20 nations from 2015 if their governments fail to enact reforms to curb rising health care spending. Concerns over the size of United States debt reared their head once again as ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warned that health care costs for a number of highly-rated Group of 20 countries, including the U.S., could hurt growth prospects and harm their sovereign creditworthiness from the middle of this decade.

“Governments’ fiscal burdens will increase significantly over the coming decade, with the highest deterioration in public finances likely to occur in Europe and other advanced G-20 economies, such as Japan and the U.S.,” S&P said in a statement on Tuesday. Health care costs for a typical advanced economy will stand at 11.1 percent of gross domestic product by 2050, up from 6.3 percent of GDP in 2010, S&P said. Population aging will lead to profound changes in economic growth prospects for countries around the world as governments work to build budgets to face ever greater age-related spending needs.

Housing Doldrums Remain

On the economic front, home prices fell 1.3 percent last November, according to S&P/Case-Shiller’s 20-city composite index, adding to the 0.7 percent drop seen in October. Economists had expected a decline of 0.5 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 17 out of 20 cities racked up monthly declines and average national home prices were around levels seen in mid-2003. Prices in the 20 cities also steepened their year-over-year decline, falling 3.7 percent compared to a 3.4 percent decline in October. Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall.

Recent data has lead to optimism the housing sector is in the early stages of the healing process, with some economists looking for prices to find a bottom this year. Still, the recovery is expected to be a lengthy one as the market remains hampered by an excess amount of homes for sale in the midst of weak demand.

US Futures Drop After GDP; 2012 Growth Caution

Friday, January 27th, 2012

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter, but a strong rebuilding of stocks by businesses and weak spending on capital goods hinted at slower growth in early 2012. U.S. stock index futures retreated Friday, erasing their early gains after the report. U.S. GDP expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, but the figure was still slightly below expectations for a 3.0 percent gain. An to continue to rumorville, European stocks were earlier buoyed by comments made by European economic affairs chief Ollie Rehn who said a deal on reducing Greece’s private sector debt is imminent and should be completed by the end of January at the latest.

Growth in the fourth quarter got a temporary boost from the rebuilding of business inventories, which was the fastest since the third quarter of 2010, after they declined in the third-quarter for the first time since late 2009. Inventories increased $56.0 billion, adding 1.94 percentage points to GDP growth. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a tepid 0.8 percent rate, a sharp step-down from the prior period’s 3.2 percent pace. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, stepped to a 2 percent rate from the third-quarter’s 1.7 percent pace – largely driven by pent-up demand for motor vehicles. The robust stock accumulation suggest the recovery will lose a step in early 2012. Also pointing to slower growth, business spending on capital goods was the slowest since 2009, a sign the debt crisis in Europe was starting to take its toll. Expectations of soft growth led the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to say it expected to keep interest rates at rock bottom levels at least through late 2014. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank, which forecast growth this year in a 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent range, was mulling further asset purchases to speed up the recovery. The Fed warned the economy still faced big risks, a suggestion the euro zone debt crisis could still hit hard. The Fed is attempting to shield the economy from a potentially more severe recession in Europe. 

About 23.7 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed. The shrinking labor force suggests the economy’s long-term growth potential has slipped below 2.5 percent. A sustained growth pace of at least 3 percent would likely be needed to make noticeable headway in absorbing the unemployed and those who have given up the search for work.

Treasury Remarks

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the World Economic Forum in Davos the U.S. economy still faced big challenges. “We’re still repairing the damage done by the financial crisis. On top of that we face a more challenging world. We have a lot of challenges ahead in the United States”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner hinted Friday that the Obama administration could support an increase in resources for the International Monetary Fund to fight the euro crisis, and also sounded a note of cautious optimism on the U.S. economy. The U.S. could support an increase in IMF resources, but only if Europe puts more of its own money on the line first, he said in a public question-and-answer session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Mr. Geithner said he could envision the IMF doing more to support European efforts to contain its debt crisis, “but it cannot substitute” for a lack of commitment from Europe. He said that European governments themselves accept this fact. The IMF is seeking as much as $500 billion in new money for loans in coming years to countries that run into trouble paying their bills or to ease concerns about volatility in the bond markets. Already the IMF is contributing to bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Week of January 30th

MONDAY: Personal income & spending, Dallas Fed mfg survey
TUESDAY: Employment cost index, S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, Florida GOP Primary vote; Earnings from ExxonMobil, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, UPS, Amazon.com, Broadcom
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications, Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, Fed’s Plosser speaks, ISM mfg index, construction spending, oil inventories, auto sales; Earnings from Aetna, Marathon Oil, Qualcomm, Electronic Arts
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, productivity and costs, Fed’s Fisher speaks, chain-store sales; Earnings from AstraZeneca, Deutsche Bank, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Sony, Unilever, beazer Homes
FRIDAY: Employment situation, factory orders, ISM non-mfg index; Earnings from Clorox

Fed Targets Inflation At 2%

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

The Fed yesterday said it plans to keep interest rates low through at least late 2014 and Chairman Ben Bernanke said policy makers are considering more bond purchases to boost growth. U.S. equities turned lower after new home-sales unexpectedly decreased, erasing gains triggered after earnings and orders for durable goods topped forecasts and initial jobless claims remained below 400,000. A third, fourth and fifth round of easing “lie ahead,” Bill Gross, wrote in his Twitter post. Talks on a debt swap to avert a Greek default resume today. Stocks reversed early gains that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since 2008.

Ten-year Treasury yields slipped five basis points to 1.95 percent at 11:07 a.m. in New York after decreasing the most in two weeks yesterday. Nickel, wheat and copper climbed at least 1.9 percent to lead gains. Treasuries and commodities rose for a second day after the Federal Reserve yesterday pledged to keep interest rates low and said it is considering more bond purchases.

Weekly jobless claims gained 21,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000, according to the Labor Department. Still, despite the increase, the figure still held below the 400,000 mark and the underlying trend continued to point to improving employment conditions. Economists had forecast claims rising to 370,000. New home sales posted a surprising drop of 2.2 percent in December for the first time in four months to a seasonally adjusted 307,000. Durable goods orders increased 3 percent in December, the second straight monthly gain, according to the Commerce Department. And leading indicators increased 0.4 percent to 94.3, rising to a five-month high in December, according to the Conference Board, pointing to continued momentum in the recovery. Economists had expected the index to increase 0.7.

Fed To Keep Rates Low Until 2014

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

With Congress paralyzed by partisan politics, the central bank faces intense pressure as one of the few government institutions that can foster economic growth. Its actions to serve that mission have drawn critics from all sides. The Fed has repeatedly underestimated the challenges facing the economy and, as a consequence, has not responded strongly enough. As part of an effort to provide more insight on its thinking to financial markets and the public, the Fed today began publishing individual policymakers’ projections for the appropriate path of the benchmark federal funds rate. If the Fed can convince financial markets it will be on hold longer than they had anticipated, long-term interest rates could drop as investors price in the new information. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has pushed for greater openness at the Fed since he took office five years ago. The chairman hopes that by routinely giving the public more information about the Fed’s expected plans, it will be easier for the central bank to influence the markets. U.S. Federal Reserve said it will not raise interest rates until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort to support a sluggish economic recovery. After the announcement, U.S. stocks pared losses while Brent and U.S. crude futures rose. The dollar erased gains against the euro. U.S. Treasurys hit session highs, and gold and silver gained. 

Without making major shifts to its outlook for the economy, the central bank described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices. It depicted business investment as having slowed, downgrading its assessment from the December meeting. Eleven Fed leaders said it is appropriate to start raising rates in 2014 or beyond, 18 months longer than previously planned; just six said it is more appropriate to raise rates this year or next. Previously the Fed said that it would keep interest rates near zero through mid-2013.

The Fed’s predictions for economic growth, inflation and the unemployment rate stayed largely unchanged since the November meeting. The Fed slightly reduced its projections for economic growth this year to between 2.2 percent and 2.7 percent, though it predicted a slightly better unemployment rate of 8.2 percent to 8.5 percent. The Fed said it expects inflation to come in slightly below 2 percent, which it generally regards as appropriate. Fed officials also dismissed the risk of inflation and suggested that it wasn’t likely to be a concern any time in the near future. The Central bank also highlighted persistent challenges, including the depressed housing market and financial crises abroad, that stand in the way of a more rapid economic recovery.

All in all, the Fed statement suggested the central bank was prepared to take more action if necessary to support economic growth, such as by purchasing additional mortgage assets to drive down rates, though it did not say that it would take any such step soon.

Portugal May Be Next On Debt Restructuring

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

This morning the Portuguese 5 Year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) rates touched an all time high 1250 basis points or 12.5%. Yes it’s true, they are not borrowing from the public markets therefore are not affected by high rates since bailout, early summer of 2011. However bond vigilantes are demanding higher rate of returns which may signify a 70% risk of default. Yet, the dilemma on Greece’s debt restructuring has still not panned out. To add to the doldrums, this morning Standard & Poor’s announced that it will likely downgrade Greece’s ratings to “selective default” when the country concludes its debt restructuring. Athens is desperate for a deal within days to ensure funds from a 130 billion euro rescue plan drawn up by European partners and the International Monetary Fund arrive before 14.5 billion euros bond redemption’s fall due in March.

Greece was clinging on Tuesday to hope of a last-minute bond swap deal to avoid a messy default after euro zone officials sent talks back to square one by rejecting a final offer from the country’s private bondholders. After weeks of haggling with creditors in Athens, euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday dealt a sharp setback to those hopes by rejecting creditors’ demand for a 4 percent coupon, or interest rate, on new, longer-dated bonds in exchange for existing debt. Private sector creditors now have the upper hand in deciding whether Athens will be forced into a hard default that could sow chaos across the global financial system (credit event) and push other weak euro zone members closer to a default.

A “voluntary” swap where both sides agree to the terms of the deal is required to prevent insurance against a Greek debt default from being paid out. The bond swap is meant to cut 100 billion euros from Greece’s debt burden of over 350 billion, in a bid to ultimately slash its debt from around 160 percent of GDP to a more manageable 120 percent of GDP by 2020.

Read previous post of Portugal issues here.

To see the Macro Economic effects to US markets see this video on Portuguese 5 Yr CDS Rates

Greek Debt Deal Still Not Done

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

European leaders ratcheted up the pressure Monday on Greek bondholders to take voluntary losses to ease the region’s debt crisis. Talk that Europe has no intention to give more money to Greece may be contributing to stock declines on Monday. Finance ministers were meeting, Greece had been presented with a “maximum offer” by its private bondholders, was also in play. The message from Euro finance ministers to the Greek officials implying they should not expect an increased bailout above the current planned amount could be a reason. A deal was to be hashed over the weekend but that quickly faded into Satuarday night. Perhaps the ground work is being laid out for a possible Greek default. Or investors are looking past Greece and looking towards Portugal who made need a similar debt restructure. It’s not clear how Europe is going to deal with both its debt and growth issues. We are likely to get a good announcement from the negotiations between the Greek government and the steering committee of the (Institute of International Finance).

How the Greek restructuring is handled — whether it will be treated as an outright default, which would trigger insurance policies known as credit default swaps against the debt, or if it will be regarded as voluntary and thus not a credit event that would cause CDS payoffs.

Christine Legarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, earlier in the morning told CNBC that the IMF will need a total of $500 billion, or another $350 billion, for its liquidity fund. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) turned the focus on governments, urging them to complete action on a new bailout fund. Patience among leaders may be wearing thin as bondholders and Greek officials wrangle over the interest rate for new bonds that would be part of a deal reducing Greek debt by around €100 billion, or $130 billion.

Private sector bondholders are seeking yields of nearly 4 percent, but Greece, as well as Germany and the I.M.F., argue that a yield closer to 3 percent is necessary to give the restructuring a serious hope of success. With the talks at an impasse, the pressure is now mounting on finance ministers to push for a solution. At stake is the need to pare Greek debt to levels where the country can conclude a bailout with the European Union and the I.M.F. that would give it the cash it needs to repay loans coming due in March and, officials hope, allow Athens to finance its needs through 2013. Without such a package, Greece could be faced with a chaotic default that further destabilizes the rest of the euro zone. Reinforcing the need for a deal, Mrs. Merkel said she wanted agreement “soon enough that no new bridge loan whatsoever will be needed” for Greece.

 The I.M.F. pressed European governments to bolster the bailout funds available for euro zone countries so that the region’s problems can be contained. “We need a larger fire wall,” Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said at a conference in Berlin. Governments should add “substantial real resources to what is currently available,” she said. She suggested that the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility, a temporary bailout fund established in 2010, could be rolled into a €500 billion permanent fund, the European Stability Mechanism, that officials hope to introduce by the middle of this year.

Greece Close To A Debt Cut Deal

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Greece and its private creditors on Friday were nearing an agreement on a deal to write down 50%-70% of the face value of the country’s debt by swapping existing bonds for new bonds with longer maturities and lower interest rates. Last weeks talks broke down, so we have yet to see the details on paper. What rate is chosen could determine how much of a loss creditors will take on the current value of their Greek debt holdings. Participants in the talks say discussions are continuing and the exact details could change. Technically, this is considered a restructured debt reorganization dubbed during the process of bankruptcy. Portugal clinched a deal on ambitious labour market reforms this week and carried out its biggest debt sale since seeking a 78-billion-euro bailout, but the challenges for the second-most risky country in the euro zone may be shifting up a gear. Portugal is the next potential candidate to default in the euro zone after Greece — a point that is fast becoming clear as Athens approaches the end of its debt restructuring talks.

A deal between Greece and private-sector creditors has been identified as a prerequisite for progress by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to make their contributions to a second bailout package for Greece totaling €130 billion ($168.6billion). Greece and representatives of bondholders, predominantly banks and hedge funds, were closing in a coupon that would begin at 3.5% on new bonds with shorter maturities and rising to a cap of 4.6% on longer-dated bonds. The new bonds will carry maturities of up to 30 years, with a grace period on repayment of principal debt of up to 10 years under discussion.

Creditors would be writing down 50% of the face value of the bonds, but in terms of net present value over the course of the maturities represents a loss for bondholders of between 65% to 70%, said a participant in the talks. The goal is to slice €100 billion off Greece’s total €360 billion stock of debt—saving Greece some €4 billion a year in interest payments. The amount of public support for Greece will depend on how much of a reduction the private sector makes in the country’s overall debt.

There is pressure on the government to make up for missed deficit targets last year, as well as to detail some €12.5 billion in further fiscal cuts to narrow Greece’s budget deficit over the next four years which will further bring deep recessions.

Portugal

Portugal clinched a deal on ambitious labour market reforms this week and carried out its biggest debt sale since seeking a 78-billion-euro bailout, but the challenges for the second-most risky country in the euro zone may be shifting up a gear. Portugal is the next potential candidate to default in the euro zone after Greece — a point that is fast becoming clear as Athens approaches the end of its debt restructuring talks. 

The concerns were clearly borne out this week as Portugal’s bond yields rose virtually without interruption, to all-time highs, despite the issuance of 2.5 billion euros of short-term treasury bills on Wednesday at slightly lower yields. The country’s 10-year yields rose to almost 15 percent on Thursday and hovered around 14.80 percent on Friday. Five-year credit default swap prices implied the market was pricing in a 66.8 percent chance of a Portuguese default. The sharp rise in bond yields was partially triggered by Standard & Poor’s downgrades of European countries last week, which left Portugal as the second euro zone country to be rated “junk” by all the main rating agencies, along with Greece.

Portugal was the only country really rattled by the downgrade because it is seen as a much more complicated case. It combines the same high level of private sector overindebtedness as Spain, high public sector debt similar to Italy, plus the economic recession. 

The key problem for Portugal, which was the third euro zone country to seek a bailout after Greece and Ireland, is whether it has enough time to restructure its economy to grow as it enacts harsh austerity and faces the worst recession in decades. This year will be the toughest of the three-year bailout as deep spending cuts, including the elimination of two months of pay for civil servants and across-the-board tax hikes, spark a 3 percent economic contraction after a 1.6 percent slump in 2011. The most probable outcome is Portugal asking for longer terms or more bailout money, just as Greece has done. Portugal has to return to the long-term bond market in the second half of 2013, which many analysts see as at least hard to achieve. Problem relates to its high level of debt, currently around 100 percent of gross domestic product, combined with low growth.

Apple’s iPad Enters Classrooms In Place Of Textbooks

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

Algebra 1

Apple has taken the World by surprise, first with the iPod, then the iMac, iPhone, and the iPad. Apple formerly announced today they will be revolutionizing the way the class is taught and read. Yes this is not a typo. They have disrupted an $8 billion market for non other than publishers of school textbooks. Truly aspiring and amazing. For the first time in America’s educational history, a technology company (other than ahhhmmm Microsoft and IBM) will make learning more interactive and less strenuous on the back. The iPad will carry 100′s of books by the palm of one’s hand!!! Introducing an entirely new kind of textbook that’s dynamic, current, engrossing, and truly interactive. A textbook created by publishers using a new authoring tool from Apple. A textbook brought to life by iPad. Currently 1.5 million iPads are in use in education. iBooks 2 will be available as a free app on the iPad, starting Thursday. iPads absolutely have a place in the classroom. It’s just a matter of finding a balance. Now how do we get a student to stop surfing for boobs on the iPad?

For hundreds of years, textbooks have put a world of knowledge in the hands of students. But while the way people learn has changed dramatically, the traditional textbook has stayed the same. Paper textbooks are expensive to produce and expensive for schools to buy. Which is why schools are forced to use a book for several years to make the finances work. But information changes so quickly that some textbooks are out of date almost before they’re published. And as books are passed along from one student to the next, they get more highlighted, dog-eared, tattered, and worn. It’s no secret that paper textbooks are heavy. But what you may not know is that backpack weight is an increasing problem among kids. Studies show that heavy backpacks can lead to both chronic back pain and poor posture — and many kids are carrying a quarter of their body weight in textbooks.

Created with iBooks Author, textbooks by top K-12 publishers McGraw-Hill and Pearson Education, as well as educational content from E.O. Wilson, are available today from the iBookstore on any iPad. And textbooks from Houghton Mifflin Harcourt are coming soon. Apple and the book publishers have reached an agreement to price most textbooks at $14.99 or less.

Features

Highlighting and Note-Taking

Use a finger as a highlighter when reading any textbook in iBooks. Just swipe over text and it’s highlighted. Tap a highlighted section and a palette appears. Change colors, switch to underlining, or add a note instantly. Then switch to the Notes view to see all your notes and highlights organized in one place, making it a cinch to search or go back to the highlighted sections of the book.

Study Cards

All your notes and highlights automatically appear on study cards. Flip them over and find the definition of a glossary term or the note attached to the highlighted passage. Choose which highlight colors to review, and include chapter vocabulary from the glossary — automatically. To make sure you really know your stuff, you can shuffle your cards to study.

Textbooks and iTunes U

Educators can include iBooks textbooks in the complete courses they create for the new iTunes U. And the textbooks work seamlessly with the iTunes U app for iPad. For example, students can tap the name of the book in the assignment list to start reading it right away, and notes they take in iBooks will appear along with the other course notes in the iTunes U app.

Eastman Kodak Declares Chapter 11

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

Eastman Kodak (NYSE:EK) has filed for bankruptcy but it grabbed a $950 million,18-month credit facility from Citigroup (NYSE:C) that will allow it keep operating during Chapter 11 and pay its 17,000 workers. While the 130-year-old photographic company had been a pioneer with the hand-held camera and assisted in the first pictures from the moon, it could not find its place in modern technology and was unable to take advantage of its patented technology. The American icon had tried a number of turnaround strategies and cost-cutting efforts in recent years, but the company — which since 2004 has reported only one full year of profits ultimately ran short of cash.

  • The Game ChangersHewlett Packard (HPQ) in the Digital Printing and home photo printing; SnapFish & ShutterFly (SFLY)- Low cost Internet Digital Photo printing
  • The Borders Group liquidated last year after having failed to gain a toehold in e-books, while Blockbuster sold itself to Dish Network last year as its retail outlets lost ground to online competitors like Netflix. Find out here on who could be next! This was predicted several years back by our very own ACE @ WallStreetGrand.

    As with many fading giants, Kodak’s demise took place over decades and was imperceptible at first. Kodak invented the digital camera in the 1970s, yet sat on the technology, fearful that filmless cameras would cannibalize its core business. Competitors such as Fuji, meanwhile, nibbled away at its market share, often undercutting it on price. By the early 2000s, digital cameras finally became affordable and commonplace, and film was out.

    All the while, Kodak tried to diversify, while its workforce shrank from 70,000 to fewer than 20,000. But most of those efforts failed to catch on, and the company could never replace its gargantuan film business. A Chapter 11 reorganization may now allow Kodak to restructure its business around printers, certain types of software, and commercial packaging, while selling hundreds of valuable patents to raise money and position itself for the future.

    Eastman Kodak Co., which filed for bankruptcy Thursday, has hired Lazard as an adviser along with FTI Consulting and Sullivan & Cromwell. If you think you’re seeing Lazard’s name an awful lot these days, you’re not imagining it. Lazard is also advising in the bankruptcy of Twinkie maker Hostess Brands Inc., and Lazard is advising the Allied Pilots Association in its negotiations with the bankrupt parent company of American Airlines. In the U.K., it’s helping the Royal Bank of Scotland PLC with the disposal of some of its assets. Of course it’s not just companies that are going bankrupt these days. Lazard, which has a strong sovereign practice, is also advising the governments of Greece and Portugal. Most recently it advised EDP-Energias de Portugal SA on its $3.51 billion deal with China Three Gorges Corp. It’s also advising governments in more obscure locales such as Mauritania and Gabon, according to a company filing.