Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Greeks Burn German Flags As Austerity Expands

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012
  The DJIA futures climbed 22 points to 12853, S&P futures gained 1 point to 1346. A report that the European Central Bank may take steps to ease Greece’s debt load, coupled with several strong corporate earnings reports, pushed stock-index futures into the green. The ECB is prepared to exchange its holdings of Greek bonds it obtained on the secondary market for fresh paper with a lower face value. Angry Greeks are venting their fury over austerity measures being introduced as a result of their country’s debt crisis by burning the German flag. Thousands of anti-austerity protesters flocked into Thessaloniki, Greece’s second largest city forcing the cancellation of an annual military parade commemorating the nation’s entry into the Second World War.

The deal would hinge on the country forging an agreement with private creditors on a broader debt restructuring, the report said. If successful, the move by the eurozone’s central bank could slice Greece’s debt load by roughly $14.6 billion. Potentially, the ECB and private debt exchanges could be the catalyst necessary to convince International Monetary Fund and European Union officials to sign off of the $171 billion bailout package agreed to in October. The clock is ticking for Greece, which has a $19.2 billion debt payment coming up on March 20. While that date is still more than a month away, analysts say actually implementing the debt deals after they are agreed to could take weeks since so many players are involved across the globe.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has set a new appointment Wednesday with party leaders backing his government to seek their approval on a raft of painful reforms needed to win a €130 billion ($170 billion) bailout and prevent a messy default. After several delays, the leaders of the Socialist, or Pasok, party, the conservative New Democracy party and the small nationalist Laos party, are now scheduled to meet at 1 p.m. GMT, the prime minister’s office said—although the meeting could be pushed back to later in the day.

The three parties are currently poring over a 50-page document outlining the terms of the loan package and the required reforms. The final document was the result of difficult negotiations between the Greek government and a visiting delegation of European and International Monetary Fund officials over more than two weeks. The international lenders have asked Greece to come up with €3.2 billion in spending cuts for 2012 alone. They have also been demanding a reduction in private-sector minimum wages, new cutbacks in government spending, the mass layoff of some 15,000 civil servants in Greece’s bloated public sector in 2012 and steep cuts in supplemental pensions paid to retirees. Pressure on Greece has been piling up from its euro-zone partners to accept a new round of painful austerity in exchange for a €130 billion loan promised to the country last October. Without that aid, Greece faces a €14.4 billion bond redemption next month that it cannot pay, raising the specter of a disorderly default by the country.

 

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Greece Still Does Not Have A Debt Deal

Monday, February 6th, 2012

Stocks continued to trade lower Monday amid ongoing debt negotiations in Greece over a fresh austerity package and as investors took a breather following last week’s robust rally and Sunday’s Super Bowl hangover. Greece failed to meet another deadline Monday to strike a deal to secure the 130 billion euro ($170 billion) rescue, pushing the debt-ridden nation closer to a default, which could threaten other euro zone nations. German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepped up pressure on Greece, warning that time was running short. The country needs the money to repay a bond coming due in March 20th. Among the most indebted euro members, Italy’s debt ratio rose 0.5 point to 119.6 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, though it did show progress in shaving 1.6 points from the second quarter of 2011.Portugal’s debt ratio rose 18.9 points from a year earlier, to 110.1 percent, while Ireland’s rose more than 16 points, to 104.9 percent.

Greece’s debt rose to 159.1 percent of gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2011 from 138.8 percent a year earlier, according to data released Monday by Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency.Public-sector layoffs have long been a taboo subject in Greece, since the Constitution protects state workers from being fired. So any cuts need to happen through attrition or eliminating positions. Negotiators are hoping to put the Greek economy on a footing that would bring its debt to 120 percent of G.D.P. by 2020, but even that figure is now in doubt.

Greece has agreed to lay off 15,000 public-sector workers by the end of 2012, a government minister said Monday, as international pressure mounts on Athens to agree on austerity measures needed to secure major new debt agreements. The cuts will come either by abolishing or downsizing a number of public sector bodies. The announcement late Monday signaled a concession after meetings between Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos and the country’s political leaders over a reform program demanded by the country’s creditors had been pushed back for another day. The country needs the money to repay a bond coming due in March 20th. But Greek party leaders have been unable to agree to the new measures, missing multiple deadlines in the negotiations, and delayed their latest meeting to Tuesday. Financial markets remain on edge as investors await the outcome of the talks.

In a sign of their lack of confidence in the Greek politicians, Sarkozy and Merkel called for Athens to set up a separate account to ensure that billions of euros in bailout money go directly to servicing debt, and not other government spending priorities. The proposal would amount to a financial straitjacket that would force Athens to put a higher priority on repaying its foreign lenders than on financing government services. “I also support the idea that the necessary interest payment for the debt service is put on an extra account to make sure that Greece will steadliy make this money available,” Merkel said. The new account idea could amount to an alternative to Germany’s controversial proposal last week for Greece to temporarily cede sovereignty over tax and spending decisions to a eurozone budget commissioner before it can secure further bailouts. Athens and the EU’s executive commission rejected that idea.

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Greece Debt Deal Seconds Away (Or Hours,Days,Weeks Away)

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

Markets are in euphoria as stocks held onto their gains for the first trading day of February. This is extending the impressive rally in January, following a handful of positive economic news from Europe and China in addition to news that Greece and its private creditors may only be hours away from a deal. BUT, several hours later, we are still waiting for the 70% haircut “really slice” of Greece’s forgiven debt  burden. On Tuesday, the S&P triggered a “golden cross,” meaning its 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day average. That is seen as the signal of an uptrend, but some analysts see it more as a psychological positive, confirming a move, rather than as a major signal.

For the month of January, the Dow rallied 3.4 percent, the S&P 500 jumped 4.36 percent, and the NASDAQ surged 8.01 percent. All three major indexes posted their best month since last October, while the Dow and S&P logged their best January since 1997.

US and World Economic Data

The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector rose to 54.1 in January, to its highest level since June, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Economists had expected a reading of 54.4, according to a Reuters poll. Still, a reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Construction spending gained 1.5 percent in December, logging its fifth consecutive monthly gain, according to the Commerce Department.

China’s factory sector expanded in January, supporting hopes the world’s second-biggest economy will avoid a hard landing.

Greece Debt Deal

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said talks between Athens and its private creditors were “one formal step away” from a deal needed to avoid a messy default. Greece is locked in two sets of talks— one with private creditors to have them take losses on their bondholdings and the other with its international bailout rescuers to receive new loans. 

“We are at a crucial point in developments. In the coming days, the agreements must be completed” for the bond swap and a second €130 billion ($171 billion) bailout package, government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis said. Debt inspectors from the European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, known as the troika, are in Athens for talks on the second rescue package, which is tied to an agreement with private creditors to accept losses on Greek bonds they hold. The success of the bond deal, however, also depends on the outcome of the bailout talks.

The bond swap, known as the Private Sector Involvement, or PSI, will see private creditors swap the bonds they hold with new ones worth half their original face value, longer repayment times and lower interest rates. They will also get a €30 billion cash sweetener — to be taken from the €130 billion bailout — for accepting the deal. Once secured, the PSI will cut €100 billion off Greece’s national debt.

Overall, the investors participating in the deal will face a loss on their bondholdings of more than 70 percent, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a Parliament committee meeting Tuesday night. The official offering of the new bonds will come by Feb. 13, Venizelos said. Greece is running out of time, as it faces a €14.5 billion bond redemption on March 20 that it cannot afford to pay without additional help. A default would spell disaster for the country and destabilize European and global markets.

Both deals will need the agreement of the heads of the three political parties in Greece’s interim coalition, Kapsis said, and Prime Minister Lucas Papademos was to call the party heads to a meeting to sign off on them and required austerity measures. Chief IMF inspector Poul Thomsen also said a deal was close, but pressed the recession-plagued country to lower employment costs and even slash the minimum wage to make the economy more competitive.

On the contrary the European Central Bank is likely to refuse to show its hand on how it will help cut Greece’s debt burden until private investors and the government have agreed to a deal. While Greece’s creditors are increasing pressure on the ECB to join the bond swap being negotiated with the country, central bankers have remained silent on their intentions. Economists say the ECB wants to see the private-sector agreement concluded before indicating its strategy, which may include forgoing profits from its Greek bonds or a transfer to one of the region’s rescue funds.

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Result Of The EU Summit; Housing Prices Dip Again

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

Meeting in Brussels, on Monday, European Union leaders agreed to implement the European Stability Mechanism, a permanent rescue fund, in July. The first summit of the year ended without new solutions for the debt crisis in Greece. Without a deal with private-sector creditors, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds, and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that’s due March 20. The €500 billion ESM was originally set to enter into force next year, when a temporary bailout fund expires.  The leaders of all but two members of the 27-nation EU also agreed to sign a fiscal pact, which was designed to prevent governments from running excessive deficits and racking up unsustainable debts. U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground Monday afternoon, but struggled to pull out of the red as concerns over Greece continued to weigh on the market. Stocks initially opened higher amid renewed hopes for a Greek deal and after the approval of a new euro zone budget discipline pact. Stocks then erased their early gains Tuesday following a handful of weaker-than-expected earnings and economic news.

However, gains were limited by the mounting tension surrounding Portugal’s debt woes, with the nation’s two-year bond yields hitting a euro-era record above 21 percent. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s warned it may downgrade “a number of highly rated” G20 nations from 2015 if their governments fail to enact reforms to curb rising health care spending. Concerns over the size of United States debt reared their head once again as ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warned that health care costs for a number of highly-rated Group of 20 countries, including the U.S., could hurt growth prospects and harm their sovereign creditworthiness from the middle of this decade.

“Governments’ fiscal burdens will increase significantly over the coming decade, with the highest deterioration in public finances likely to occur in Europe and other advanced G-20 economies, such as Japan and the U.S.,” S&P said in a statement on Tuesday. Health care costs for a typical advanced economy will stand at 11.1 percent of gross domestic product by 2050, up from 6.3 percent of GDP in 2010, S&P said. Population aging will lead to profound changes in economic growth prospects for countries around the world as governments work to build budgets to face ever greater age-related spending needs.

Housing Doldrums Remain

On the economic front, home prices fell 1.3 percent last November, according to S&P/Case-Shiller’s 20-city composite index, adding to the 0.7 percent drop seen in October. Economists had expected a decline of 0.5 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 17 out of 20 cities racked up monthly declines and average national home prices were around levels seen in mid-2003. Prices in the 20 cities also steepened their year-over-year decline, falling 3.7 percent compared to a 3.4 percent decline in October. Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall.

Recent data has lead to optimism the housing sector is in the early stages of the healing process, with some economists looking for prices to find a bottom this year. Still, the recovery is expected to be a lengthy one as the market remains hampered by an excess amount of homes for sale in the midst of weak demand.

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US Futures Drop After GDP; 2012 Growth Caution

Friday, January 27th, 2012

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter, but a strong rebuilding of stocks by businesses and weak spending on capital goods hinted at slower growth in early 2012. U.S. stock index futures retreated Friday, erasing their early gains after the report. U.S. GDP expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, but the figure was still slightly below expectations for a 3.0 percent gain. An to continue to rumorville, European stocks were earlier buoyed by comments made by European economic affairs chief Ollie Rehn who said a deal on reducing Greece’s private sector debt is imminent and should be completed by the end of January at the latest.

Growth in the fourth quarter got a temporary boost from the rebuilding of business inventories, which was the fastest since the third quarter of 2010, after they declined in the third-quarter for the first time since late 2009. Inventories increased $56.0 billion, adding 1.94 percentage points to GDP growth. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a tepid 0.8 percent rate, a sharp step-down from the prior period’s 3.2 percent pace. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, stepped to a 2 percent rate from the third-quarter’s 1.7 percent pace – largely driven by pent-up demand for motor vehicles. The robust stock accumulation suggest the recovery will lose a step in early 2012. Also pointing to slower growth, business spending on capital goods was the slowest since 2009, a sign the debt crisis in Europe was starting to take its toll. Expectations of soft growth led the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to say it expected to keep interest rates at rock bottom levels at least through late 2014. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank, which forecast growth this year in a 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent range, was mulling further asset purchases to speed up the recovery. The Fed warned the economy still faced big risks, a suggestion the euro zone debt crisis could still hit hard. The Fed is attempting to shield the economy from a potentially more severe recession in Europe. 

About 23.7 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed. The shrinking labor force suggests the economy’s long-term growth potential has slipped below 2.5 percent. A sustained growth pace of at least 3 percent would likely be needed to make noticeable headway in absorbing the unemployed and those who have given up the search for work.

Treasury Remarks

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the World Economic Forum in Davos the U.S. economy still faced big challenges. “We’re still repairing the damage done by the financial crisis. On top of that we face a more challenging world. We have a lot of challenges ahead in the United States”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner hinted Friday that the Obama administration could support an increase in resources for the International Monetary Fund to fight the euro crisis, and also sounded a note of cautious optimism on the U.S. economy. The U.S. could support an increase in IMF resources, but only if Europe puts more of its own money on the line first, he said in a public question-and-answer session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Mr. Geithner said he could envision the IMF doing more to support European efforts to contain its debt crisis, “but it cannot substitute” for a lack of commitment from Europe. He said that European governments themselves accept this fact. The IMF is seeking as much as $500 billion in new money for loans in coming years to countries that run into trouble paying their bills or to ease concerns about volatility in the bond markets. Already the IMF is contributing to bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Week of January 30th

MONDAY: Personal income & spending, Dallas Fed mfg survey
TUESDAY: Employment cost index, S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, Florida GOP Primary vote; Earnings from ExxonMobil, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, UPS, Amazon.com, Broadcom
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications, Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, Fed’s Plosser speaks, ISM mfg index, construction spending, oil inventories, auto sales; Earnings from Aetna, Marathon Oil, Qualcomm, Electronic Arts
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, productivity and costs, Fed’s Fisher speaks, chain-store sales; Earnings from AstraZeneca, Deutsche Bank, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Sony, Unilever, beazer Homes
FRIDAY: Employment situation, factory orders, ISM non-mfg index; Earnings from Clorox

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Fed Targets Inflation At 2%

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

The Fed yesterday said it plans to keep interest rates low through at least late 2014 and Chairman Ben Bernanke said policy makers are considering more bond purchases to boost growth. U.S. equities turned lower after new home-sales unexpectedly decreased, erasing gains triggered after earnings and orders for durable goods topped forecasts and initial jobless claims remained below 400,000. A third, fourth and fifth round of easing “lie ahead,” Bill Gross, wrote in his Twitter post. Talks on a debt swap to avert a Greek default resume today. Stocks reversed early gains that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since 2008.

Ten-year Treasury yields slipped five basis points to 1.95 percent at 11:07 a.m. in New York after decreasing the most in two weeks yesterday. Nickel, wheat and copper climbed at least 1.9 percent to lead gains. Treasuries and commodities rose for a second day after the Federal Reserve yesterday pledged to keep interest rates low and said it is considering more bond purchases.

Weekly jobless claims gained 21,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000, according to the Labor Department. Still, despite the increase, the figure still held below the 400,000 mark and the underlying trend continued to point to improving employment conditions. Economists had forecast claims rising to 370,000. New home sales posted a surprising drop of 2.2 percent in December for the first time in four months to a seasonally adjusted 307,000. Durable goods orders increased 3 percent in December, the second straight monthly gain, according to the Commerce Department. And leading indicators increased 0.4 percent to 94.3, rising to a five-month high in December, according to the Conference Board, pointing to continued momentum in the recovery. Economists had expected the index to increase 0.7.

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Fed To Keep Rates Low Until 2014

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

With Congress paralyzed by partisan politics, the central bank faces intense pressure as one of the few government institutions that can foster economic growth. Its actions to serve that mission have drawn critics from all sides. The Fed has repeatedly underestimated the challenges facing the economy and, as a consequence, has not responded strongly enough. As part of an effort to provide more insight on its thinking to financial markets and the public, the Fed today began publishing individual policymakers’ projections for the appropriate path of the benchmark federal funds rate. If the Fed can convince financial markets it will be on hold longer than they had anticipated, long-term interest rates could drop as investors price in the new information. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has pushed for greater openness at the Fed since he took office five years ago. The chairman hopes that by routinely giving the public more information about the Fed’s expected plans, it will be easier for the central bank to influence the markets. U.S. Federal Reserve said it will not raise interest rates until at least late 2014, even later than investors expected, in an effort to support a sluggish economic recovery. After the announcement, U.S. stocks pared losses while Brent and U.S. crude futures rose. The dollar erased gains against the euro. U.S. Treasurys hit session highs, and gold and silver gained. 

Without making major shifts to its outlook for the economy, the central bank described the unemployment rate as still elevated and said it expects inflation to remain at levels consistent with stable prices. It depicted business investment as having slowed, downgrading its assessment from the December meeting. Eleven Fed leaders said it is appropriate to start raising rates in 2014 or beyond, 18 months longer than previously planned; just six said it is more appropriate to raise rates this year or next. Previously the Fed said that it would keep interest rates near zero through mid-2013.

The Fed’s predictions for economic growth, inflation and the unemployment rate stayed largely unchanged since the November meeting. The Fed slightly reduced its projections for economic growth this year to between 2.2 percent and 2.7 percent, though it predicted a slightly better unemployment rate of 8.2 percent to 8.5 percent. The Fed said it expects inflation to come in slightly below 2 percent, which it generally regards as appropriate. Fed officials also dismissed the risk of inflation and suggested that it wasn’t likely to be a concern any time in the near future. The Central bank also highlighted persistent challenges, including the depressed housing market and financial crises abroad, that stand in the way of a more rapid economic recovery.

All in all, the Fed statement suggested the central bank was prepared to take more action if necessary to support economic growth, such as by purchasing additional mortgage assets to drive down rates, though it did not say that it would take any such step soon.

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Portugal May Be Next On Debt Restructuring

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

This morning the Portuguese 5 Year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) rates touched an all time high 1250 basis points or 12.5%. Yes it’s true, they are not borrowing from the public markets therefore are not affected by high rates since bailout, early summer of 2011. However bond vigilantes are demanding higher rate of returns which may signify a 70% risk of default. Yet, the dilemma on Greece’s debt restructuring has still not panned out. To add to the doldrums, this morning Standard & Poor’s announced that it will likely downgrade Greece’s ratings to “selective default” when the country concludes its debt restructuring. Athens is desperate for a deal within days to ensure funds from a 130 billion euro rescue plan drawn up by European partners and the International Monetary Fund arrive before 14.5 billion euros bond redemption’s fall due in March.

Greece was clinging on Tuesday to hope of a last-minute bond swap deal to avoid a messy default after euro zone officials sent talks back to square one by rejecting a final offer from the country’s private bondholders. After weeks of haggling with creditors in Athens, euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday dealt a sharp setback to those hopes by rejecting creditors’ demand for a 4 percent coupon, or interest rate, on new, longer-dated bonds in exchange for existing debt. Private sector creditors now have the upper hand in deciding whether Athens will be forced into a hard default that could sow chaos across the global financial system (credit event) and push other weak euro zone members closer to a default.

A “voluntary” swap where both sides agree to the terms of the deal is required to prevent insurance against a Greek debt default from being paid out. The bond swap is meant to cut 100 billion euros from Greece’s debt burden of over 350 billion, in a bid to ultimately slash its debt from around 160 percent of GDP to a more manageable 120 percent of GDP by 2020.

Read previous post of Portugal issues here.

To see the Macro Economic effects to US markets see this video on Portuguese 5 Yr CDS Rates

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Greek Debt Deal Still Not Done

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

European leaders ratcheted up the pressure Monday on Greek bondholders to take voluntary losses to ease the region’s debt crisis. Talk that Europe has no intention to give more money to Greece may be contributing to stock declines on Monday. Finance ministers were meeting, Greece had been presented with a “maximum offer” by its private bondholders, was also in play. The message from Euro finance ministers to the Greek officials implying they should not expect an increased bailout above the current planned amount could be a reason. A deal was to be hashed over the weekend but that quickly faded into Satuarday night. Perhaps the ground work is being laid out for a possible Greek default. Or investors are looking past Greece and looking towards Portugal who made need a similar debt restructure. It’s not clear how Europe is going to deal with both its debt and growth issues. We are likely to get a good announcement from the negotiations between the Greek government and the steering committee of the (Institute of International Finance).

How the Greek restructuring is handled — whether it will be treated as an outright default, which would trigger insurance policies known as credit default swaps against the debt, or if it will be regarded as voluntary and thus not a credit event that would cause CDS payoffs.

Christine Legarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, earlier in the morning told CNBC that the IMF will need a total of $500 billion, or another $350 billion, for its liquidity fund. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) turned the focus on governments, urging them to complete action on a new bailout fund. Patience among leaders may be wearing thin as bondholders and Greek officials wrangle over the interest rate for new bonds that would be part of a deal reducing Greek debt by around €100 billion, or $130 billion.

Private sector bondholders are seeking yields of nearly 4 percent, but Greece, as well as Germany and the I.M.F., argue that a yield closer to 3 percent is necessary to give the restructuring a serious hope of success. With the talks at an impasse, the pressure is now mounting on finance ministers to push for a solution. At stake is the need to pare Greek debt to levels where the country can conclude a bailout with the European Union and the I.M.F. that would give it the cash it needs to repay loans coming due in March and, officials hope, allow Athens to finance its needs through 2013. Without such a package, Greece could be faced with a chaotic default that further destabilizes the rest of the euro zone. Reinforcing the need for a deal, Mrs. Merkel said she wanted agreement “soon enough that no new bridge loan whatsoever will be needed” for Greece.

 The I.M.F. pressed European governments to bolster the bailout funds available for euro zone countries so that the region’s problems can be contained. “We need a larger fire wall,” Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said at a conference in Berlin. Governments should add “substantial real resources to what is currently available,” she said. She suggested that the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility, a temporary bailout fund established in 2010, could be rolled into a €500 billion permanent fund, the European Stability Mechanism, that officials hope to introduce by the middle of this year.

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