Archive for the ‘Penny Stock Picks’ Category

Gold and Silver: History and Stocks

Friday, November 5th, 2010

What we’re witnessing is the death of the dollar as we know it. This is a chess game where the loser’s currency devalues greatly. All the moves from all corners of the world are centered on gold, the dollar/IMF, and the new Euro currency. This is the Achilles’ heel of our new-age bubble economy that will blind-side most Americans when they wake up and see gold revalued 20 or more times higher. They will ask, “Where did that come from? I thought gold was dead.” The answers we get will miss the point. Perhaps it will be blamed on Y2K or on hoarders or LTCM or hedge funds or derivatives. The correct answer is (and remember this) currency needs a basis of discipline that will prevent money from being printed, credit being created out of thin air as the dollar has been since 1971. That is why the Euro is backed by 15% gold valued at market. In 1971, President Nixon removed us from the gold standard. That is when the present situation started in earnest. Since then we have been in a dollar exportation game that has flooded the world with over $400 billion dollars, mostly held overseas in Central Bank accounts to purchase oil and other world-trade settlement items.

With the advent of the Euro, the destructive actions of the IMF, and the large dollar overflow, we are seeing desperate moves by desperate players — all in the background to an otherwise goldilocks economy. So, how soon becomes more an issue of how can we tell we are getting close?

Watch the players move their pieces.

– First, the US was taken off the gold standard in 1971.

– Oil went up in 1973.

– Next, gold was demonetized in 1976-1978 and made cheaper in dollar terms, while OPEC bought up gold-repayment contracts from the mining companies as they were loaned OPEC petrol-dollar profits through bullion banks . The BBs, in turn, leased private and some Central Bank gold into the gold markets that made gold cheaper and cheaper as it was sold into the world paper gold markets. They did these moves even to the point of hedge funds jumping on board to short the gold market. Now many of these gold contract repayments are near default as gold is no longer available in quantity to pay back the oil countries their gold that they had been receiving from the mines. Some of these folks are obviously concerned (BIS/Euro/Asia/OPEC).

– In 1982, the great bull market of the Century started. Much of the money in the bull market came from excess liquidity resulting from credit expansion in our banks. Since gold was no longer needed to back the dollar, banks and the Fed were free to create money without a resulting rise in the price of gold (this is the lack of discipline brought on by not having gold backing. As gold should have been allowed to rise as the dollars were created).

– 1988-89 was when Japan’s bubble economy burst. They have been struggling ever since.

– In 1994 through 1999, hedge funds shorted the gold market in earnest further increasing the gold shortages above. The BRE-X scandal broke gold’s back and almost destroyed the gold mining as an investment further depressing the price of gold. Doesn’t this story sound similar to JP Morgan’s massive short position currently in Silver?

– In 1999, the Bank of England announced a public gold auction of half of their gold reserves. The Euro was announced. The IMF became embroiled in a scandal. The European Union announced they won’t fund any more gold leasing except for 2000 tons (sale) over four years. Gold hit a 20-year low. Gold rose from $252 to $338 in one week. Rumors floating that the Bank of England doesn’t want to auction any more of its gold. Ashanti and Cambior (two gold mining companies) actually lose money when gold rises $80, because they (like many others) were threatened with a lower credit rating by bullion banks if they didn’t further hedge their production. Many gold mining companies and hedge funds scramble to cover their short gold positions. Gold lease rates rise to nearly 10% during the $80 price move. Inflation indices of the US government start to show signs of inflation. Greenspan gives the doom and gloom (for him) Jackson Hole speech. The long-term bond yield continues to remain above 6%.

Conclusion: BRE-X almost seems as though, in retrospect, it was orchestrated to lower the price of gold, something not really mentioned then but makes sense now. The pace of chess moves has increased in frequency and intensity in 1999, where it took years to see these changes before they are now coming weekly and daily. This indicates that the end-game is near. The stock market bubble seems to inversely track the efforts to contain gold in a box. In other words, as the stock market finishes up the greatest bull market; gold and the Euro promise to bring in a new gold and Euro market at the expense of the DOW, NASDAQ, and dollar.

Predictions (general and specific):

– Long-term bond yield above 7% or higher.

– An increase in volatility and a divergence in COMEX and London Bullion Market Association gold prices from actual physical gold prices, where physical will continue to gain a premium over paper such that the paper markets either fold or certain large players fold.

– Rumblings of gold backed US currency.

– More nationalization of gold mines overseas as more hedge positions put additional mining companies at risk.

– Several large gold mining companies to fold or be taken over by their banks.

– Gold to continue to play in the news on an ever increasing basis.

– IMF to value their gold at market.

– OPEC to eventually accept Euros in payment for oil.

– Talk of new regional currencies.

– China to dishoard dollars and buy more gold.

– Paper millionaires from bubble market to lose fortunes by buying on dips – as markets eventually correct.

– Political rumblings of gold confiscations, gold mine taxes, and new dollar currency based on gold.

– European Union to create a standing army and navy.

– India to become a more dominant world player.

– Solar and wind power to become more popular.

– Big push to get off oil dependency as gasoline goes above $2.50 per gallon.

Today we’re seeing unprecedented Gold and Silver all time Highs. Silver, in my opinion is experiencing similar short manipulation to BRE-X scandal in the late 90’s. JP Morgan will be exposed of its naked short and forced to cover and catapult silver higher than its current value of $26.00.

Stocks to Buy

Earnings at Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) the largest U.S. gold producer may increase 47 percent to $1.93 billion in 2010.

Eldorado Gold: (EGO) Shares of EGO closed at $19.31 in the previous trading session and opened today at $19.49. EGO is trading above the 50 day moving average and higher than the 200 day moving average. The stock’s 52 week low is $9.74 and 52 week high is $19.72.

Goldcorp Inc: (GG) Shares of Goldcorp traded 2.2% higher

Barrick Gold: (NYSE:ABX) are up 2.0% on Tuesday. So far this year, the stock jumped over 34%

Hecla Mining Company: (NYSE:HL) Up 16% in one week. Over the past 52-weeks, the stock has been trading within the range of $2.85-$7.47. At current market price, the market capitalization of the stock stands at $1.40 billion.

Silver Wheaton Corp (NYSE: SLW) Silver Wheaton Corp. (Silver Wheaton) is a mining company, which generates its revenue primarily from the sale of silver.

Pan American Silver Corp (NASDAQ:PAAS) During the quarter ended June 30, 2010 the Company recorded sales of a record $147.3 million, a 32% increase compared to the second quarter of 2009.

Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE Amex:EXK) Endeavour Silver Corp. (Endeavour) is a Canadian mineral company engaged in the evaluation, acquisition, exploration, development and exploitation of mineral properties. The Company produces silver-gold from its underground mines at Guanacevi and Guanajuato in Mexico.

Coeur d Alene Mines Corp (NYSE:CDE) (Coeur) is a silver producer with gold assets located in North America. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the operation, ownership, development and exploration of silver and gold mining properties and companies located primarily within South America (Chile, Argentina and Bolivia), Mexico (Chihuahua), United States (Nevada and Alaska) and Australia (New South Wales).

IShares Silver Trust (NYSE Arca: SLV) ETF that correlates silver futures

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca: GLD) ETF that correlates Gold futures

Gold Fields Limited (NYSE:GFI) Gold Fields is a producer of gold and holder of gold reserves in South Africa, Ghana, Australia and Peru. In Peru, Gold Fields also produces copper. Gold Fields is primarily involved in underground and surface gold and copper mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing and smelting.

Jaguar Mining Inc (NYSE: JAG) Jaguar is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of gold producing properties at its 93,000-acre land base in the Iron Quadrangle region of Brazil, a greenstone belt located near the city of Belo Horizonte in the state of Minas Gerais.

Silvercorp Metals Inc (NYSE:SVM) The Company’s properties include Ying Mine (77.5%), HPG Property (80%), TLP Mine (77.5%), LM Mine (80%), Nabao Project (82%), GC Project (95%) and Silvertip Project (100%).

We believe Gold will head towards $3,500 within the next 5 years. Silver is headed to $80

What Are Penny Stocks

Monday, June 28th, 2010

A penny stock, also known as a micro cap equity, refers to a share in a company which trades for less than $5.00. While this is the official definition, and is used by the Securities and Exchange Commission, generally every full service or discount broker, and the vast majority of analysts and institutional investors, there are other more loosely held criteria applied by the general public and most retail investors.

Some of these alternative criteria include:

  • a price per share being less than $1, and as low as fractions of one cent
  • a market cap of less than $50 million or less than $25 million
  • trading on more obscure markets, such as the Pink Sheets

While such definitions are sometimes used by individuals and retail investors, the various and loose unconventional definitions enjoy no consensus or accuracy.

As well, there are many limitations with the alternative definitions, as they often contradict themselves. For example, there are many companies trading for only a few cents with market capitalizations of hundreds of millions of dollars, or corporations trading on the Pink Sheets but having share prices of $50 or more. (i.e. GM and now FRE and FNM)

Both negative and positive connotations surround micro caps and low-priced shares.

Speculative investors are attracted to micro cap equities, because generally they:

  • are more volatile
  • make larger price moves in shorter time frames
  • have greater upside potential on a percentage basis
  • are easier to acquire with less initial investment

More conservative traders usually shy away from the smaller stocks, because:

  • the underlying companies are often less secure or fundamentally sound
  • many shares are too volatile, on both a price and percentage basis
  • the companies generally don’t pay dividends
  • they aren’t subject to the same reporting requirements as Blue Chip equities, if they are on the lower level exchanges

The two sides to the investment philosophy ring true to the old axiom, “high risk, high reward.”

There are many well known corporations who either are, or at one time were, trading for less than $5 per share. Some of these include commonly followed companies such as Sun Microsystems, Ford Motor Company, and Sprint Nextel.

Many of these companies started out trading for low prices, and as they became more widely known, and their businesses progressed, they made millionaires out of their investors.

Markets Are In Confirmed Uptrend; BUY

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Markets are primed to break key resistance of 1105 in the S&P. After several sessions in the red for the month of May, markets are beginning to look positive. Key indicators are holding 1040 mark which is key technical above the 400 day moving average but we are well below the 50, 100, and the 200 moving averages. It’s still to early to say we’re in a confirmed long uptrend because we’ve been oversold the last month. In the long run it will be before weeks when and if trend looks to continue strong. In short you should buy the strong and invest heavily and then take profits off the table when goal is attained.

BUY Confirmed

Huge Penny Stock Play-Oil Stock Strikes Black Gold

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

Treaty Energy (TECO) hits oil on its first well on the Tennessee Oil and Gas Leases. Well Drilled on June 8th on the Pickett County TN Leases Has Resulted in a “Gusher” That Produced 30+ Barrels in Three Hours.

Treaty Energy Corporation TECO 0.02, +83.33% , a growth-oriented energy company in the oil and gas industry, today announced that it is now in production of oil in Pickett County, Tennessee, on its first well drilled on a prolific oil field contained by its TN leases.

TECO’s first attempt to drill on its TN leases is considered to be a major success. The Company announced the acquisition of five oil and gas leases in Pickett County TN on April 13, 2010. The leases encompass 246 acres and included two shut in wells, the first of which was re-entered on Tuesday, June 8th, with these most positive results. The Company indicates that there is a second “shut in” well that will likely be penetrated soon. These leases will accommodate up to 25 drilling sites. Gerard Danos, COO of Treaty Energy Corporation, was on site in Pickett County, and stated, “What an exciting day. We were tremendously successful in reopening our first well on one of our Tennessee leases. Our drilling crew utilized the air rotary method, and the well started producing a heavy flow of oil at 900 ft. and continued the high output to a depth of 1875 ft.”

Mr. Danos added, “This well produced 30+ barrels in just three hours due to natural back pressure. Once we realized the amount of oil the well was producing, we immediately began negotiations and reached an agreement on a 45 acre lease adjacent to this tract.”

Pictures of activities at the TN drilling site can be viewed at the following link: www.treatyenergy.com/flashsite/pickett.html

Andrew Reid, Chairman and CEO of Treaty Energy, stated, “Our drilling success in Tennessee is a strong step forward for Treaty Energy. We are steadily moving ahead on all of our oil and gas projects, which include leases in Kansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and the biggest of all, our Joint Venture project in Belize with Princess Petroleum, Inc. We look to a very bright future for all of our stakeholders.”

Small Caps Making Huge Gains -Bio Pharmas

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

Dendreon Corp. has been splashing headlines all week. DNDN 54.06, got FDA approval of its terminal prostate cancer treatment, Provenge, on April 30. Biotech stocks often run up in advance of an FDA decision, then sell off between approval and the time they actually start selling the new drug. If you see such a sell-off in May or June, it will be a buying opportunity. Dendreon will sell Provenge in North America themselves, and will be announcing their international partner to take Provenge into other countries. I believe the partner will be Roche, and that announcement will move the stock up sharply, even in a down market. Dendreon also can be held for years, as they apply the technology underlying Provenge to other solid tumor cancers like breast, colon, head and neck, and many others.

DNDN ran from $3.50 in 2009 to all time highs of $54. Apple had a similar run from a low of $10 to $270. What could be next in the Bio Pharma sector? Here’s a few that are on the FDA Approval list.

CombinatoRx Inc.- CRXX 1.29, received FDA approval for Exalgo, a powerful once-a-day painkiller, on March 2. They have already partnered with Mallinckrodt, a subsidiary of Covidien COV 47.99, -0.25, -0.52%) , to distribute the drug in North America. Mallinckrodt will start shipping any day. CombinatoRx will be collecting substantial royalties, on top of the $40 million milestone payment they already received from Covidien. The royalty flow will move the stock up. Moreover, I think it is highly likely that Covidien will acquire CombinatoRx by the end of 2011, at a substantial multiple of the current price.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. BCRX 7.59, is in two Phase III trials for its very effective antiviral, peramivir, for seasonal flu. The trials are being paid for by the Department of Health & Human Services. Peramivir received an Emergency Use Authorization for use during the swine flu epidemic in patients admitted to Intensive Care Units, and the government bought 10,000 courses of treatment last fall for the National Stockpile at $2,250 a course. Peramivir had a remarkable 90% cure rate on patients that were able to get it, and doctors are beginning to suggest that it be used in the coming flu season as first-line therapy for those requiring hospital admission, instead of only rescue therapy for those who have not recovered using other drugs. Peramivir also has been approved in Japan for outpatient use, and BioCryst will receive royalties from their Japanese partner, Shionogi, beginning in the June quarter. As the Southern Hemisphere flu season begins in May and Northern Hemisphere governments review their strategy for the 2010-2011 flu season, I expect BioCryst to receive substantial orders for peramivir from all over the world, long before it receives the inevitable FDA approval in late 2011.

Arrayit Corp (OTC:ARYC is the proprietor of OvaDX(TM), a pre-symptomatic Ovarian Cancer test using it’s PATENTED microarray technology. OvaDX Pre-Symptomatic Ovarian Cancer Test will be the first comprehensive diagnostic screen for this cancer in the market. OvaDX uses approximately 100 proteomic biomarkets in a microarray format to identify molecular beacons of ovarian cancer that accumulate in the bloodstream as a result of the body’s natural immune response to developing ovarian tumors. Conservative estimates are for revenues that could reach $1B within five years, given that marketing, sales and distribution efforts are maximized. Guidance was provided in mid April for a new medical device filing with FDA during the late 2Q10 to early 3Q10, in which Arrayit is also expected to close one or more round of financings.

Arrayit Corp owns the LARGEST installed Micro-Array platform in the world. This platform base is about to be leveraged by upcoming announcements regarding major discoveries bringing upon large consumable orders on the platform from major Pharmaceutical Companys and creating a rush by other Pharma companies to get similar results!

For starters, the company’s stock has a very low float (37M) with a market cap of about $18M, all the while generating revenue and being profitable on a cash flow operational basis. Many are unaware, but Arrayit has actually been around for 17 years, and the real reason it remains undiscovered is because they just went public via a reverse merger last year.

Arrayit Corporation, headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, leads and empowers the genetic, research, pharmaceutical, and diagnostic communities through the discovery, development and manufacture of proprietary life science technologies and consumables for disease prevention, treatment and cure. Arrayit now offers over 650 products to a customer base of more than 10,000 clinics and research facilities, and more than 5,000 laboratories worldwide, including most every major university, pharmaceutical and biotech company, major agricultural and chemical company, government agency, national research foundation and many private sector enterprises.

On December 10, 2009 Arrayit announced it would enter the diagnostics markets with its first diagnostics product, OvaDx™, A pre –symptomatic Ovarian Cancer test using its proprietary patented microarray technology. Upon FDA approval, OvaDx™ should have rapid adoption, accelerating revenue and earnings growth. Conservative estimates are for revenues that could reach 1 billion within 5 years for this test alone. Arrayit is working on other Pre-Symptomatic tests for other diseases such as Parkinson, Prostate and Breast cancer. Arrayit’s Biomarker Discovery and Platform tools business are areas of increasing revenue and earnings growth potential when further capital is raised. This opportunity exists based on its excellent science reputation and its position as one of the largest installed micro-array platforms in the world. Arrayits Patented Micro-Array platform has significant scalability advantages over the competition creating cost and data accuracy for diagnostic tests and research Pharma.

What Makes Arrayit Undervalued:

  • Largest installed Micro-array platform in the world now nearly 3200. This platform base is about to be leveraged by potential upcoming major announcements on major discoveries and potential large consumables orders on the platform from major Pharmas. Creating a rush to the company by other Pharmas to get similar result.
  • Ready to make FDA application for IVD MIA Test for Ovarian Cancer, OvaDx™ . via DOCRO to submit test; DOCRO has a 99% success rate with FDA. Vermillion (VRML) and Agendia (Netherlands)www.agendia.com ( a Arrayit client) have had the last two approvals by the FDA via this method and has blown the door wide open for test approved by the IVD MIA method, which does not require the standard Phase I, II, III approval. This test qualifies for Fast Track Approval Status under the UNMET medical need waiver. This test (Billions in Revenue projected with test approval)
  • Major Pharma alliances could soon be announced with potential major revenue orders, validating its platform and positioning company for rapid revenue growth.
  • Although well known by the scientific community as a private company. Unknown to Wall Street because of coming public via Reverse merger. Company has current revenue and is profitable on a cash flow basis. Now having capital available via the Public markets, revenues and earnings can explode from funding which the company has recently announced should be done this Quarter.

John Howell, CEO of Arrayit Diagnostics, Inc., added, “With plans to market the test at a cost of approximately $350 per test kit and presuming we achieve our predetermined time-to-market objectives, we are confident that revenue of $4-$5 million is an attainable sales goal for 2010. Moreover, given that we estimate the total market for a viable early stage ovarian cancer screening test in the U.S., Japan and Europe could collectively represent use of up to 175 million kits per year; beyond 2010, annual revenues for Arrayit Diagnostics could ultimately reach into the hundreds of millions, and perhaps even billions, of dollars.”

Penny Stock Alert – MTLQQ aka GM

Thursday, April 22nd, 2010

It’s unlike me to make an annoucement of this government owned penny chaser, but I couldn’t help myself. This penny stock is trading @ .69 up 27.68%. It blew up yesterday with over 26.7 million shares exchanged. Mind you the average volume has been 5.2 million. It closed at it’s high and is posed to run for more. At this momentum, it may run for the $1 buck mark which equates to a possible 44% gain. Mind you this is a very short term play as GM is in Bankruptcy so it is not a viable long term play and purely speculative but worth the risk. The government still anticipates a GM IPO later in 2010. That means if and when this happens MTLQQ is worthless as preferred and bond holders are paid first leaving common shareholders in the dust. It’s merely a momentum trade. Here’s some of the recent news.

Chairman and CEO Ed Whitacre went on a media blitz Wednesday to proclaim the company’s repayment of $8 billion in emergency loans Canada and the United States pumped into the company last summer to keep it alive. Not only is the debt retired, it was paid back four years ahead of schedule. Admittedly, the politics behind these loans made the likelihood of default somewhat remote. But no one is going to complain that the debt is now history, especially those who opposed the loans in the first place. The federal governments of Canada and the United States are the majority shareholders in General Motors, and will be until the carmaker issues new shares to the public.

The $6.7 billion from the U.S. government, which had to be repaid within five years, was only a fraction of the $50 billion GM received in total. The U.S. Treasury still holds $2.1 billion in preferred stock and owns 61% of the common equity, which it plans to unload once GM goes public. For its part, Canada handed over almost $10 billion in financial aid, including $1.4 billion in loans. GM had already paid back about $2 billion to the U.S. government and less than half a million dollars to Canada, with sights set on paying off the entire chunk by June.

Earlier this month, GM reported a $4.3 billion loss for its post-bankruptcy era from July through December but said it could turn a profit in 2010, a key step toward its initial public offering.

The White House on Wednesday accelerated the schedule for selling the U.S. government’s stakes in General Motors Co., after the company reported what they declared positive financial developments.
But the Obama administration reiterated that the government is unlikely to recover all of the bailout funds extended to the auto industry. ”Today, prospects for repayment and a faster-than-anticipated exit from government involvement in the industry have improved,” Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, wrote in a report updating the administration’s auto-industry investments. The U.S. owns about 60% of GM and nearly 10% of Chrysler. The Obama administration has not specified when it plans to sell the auto-company stakes, saying only that a sale would occur in segments and as soon as is practicable. The next step would be for the companies to undergo an initial public offering of stock, which, at least for GM, officials have said could happen as early as the second half of this year.

COIN Reports 1st Quarter Sales

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

Converted Organics Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) announced today that sales of its organic fertilizer products and tip fees totaled $811,600 for the first quarter of 2010, a figure that boosts Company sales 65 percent from its reported 2009 first quarter earnings of $492,000. The Company also announced that its financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2009, included in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 31, 2010, did not contain a going concern qualification from its independent public accountants, CCR LLP.

“We are pleased with the significant progress our Company has demonstrated with our first quarter earnings and we are happy to report the elimination of the going concern qualification,” said Edward J. Gildea, President of Converted Organics. “We expect to see this growth continue while our priorities remain increasing sales of our organic fertilizer products, expanding through acquisition opportunities, and increasing manufacturing efficiency.”

My speculative play first announced on Feb 24  It started out terrible as it had dropped 20% to .80 over the course of a month but since has rebounded to our initial level of $1.05. This announcement clearly shows the company will deliver positive results going forward as COIN improves production and efficiency to their facilities. My speculative rating of 2  is the second highest rating out of 5. I recommend to buy at these levels as revenues continue to improve going forward. Please note increased volume exchanged, as it signals investor confidence.

Earnings Season Kicks Off

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Today marked the official launch of the earning season. We end the 1st quarter calender season with the DJIA hitting 11,000 and the S&P at 1,200. Where do we go from here? It all depends on the earnings season results. Media gives a false pretense of weak markets, but I think otherwise. There’s too much artificial capital flow from government spending. Secondly, consumers are spending and will spend just a little bit more when they receive their tax returns from the IRS. Fund managers are now in a rush to re-balance their portfolios. I mark the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the 2nd quarter for 2010 as a term coined “Money Chasers”. Markets will rush to the undervalued stocks that have missed out through the massive 2009 gains. First off, let’s discuss Alcoa’s & Ambac’s earnings.

The bulls’ enthusiasm was tempered ahead of first-quarter earnings season.

Alcoa Inc. (A) shares eased late Monday, giving up earlier gains after the aluminum giant said it narrowed its quarterly loss. Higher aluminum prices helped the company trim its net loss, but revenue fell short of analyst projections. Alcoa lost $201 million, or 20 cents a share, narrower than its loss of $497 million, or 61 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago. Revenue rose to $4.89 billion from $4.15 billion a year ago, but sales in the latest period were short of Wall Street’s forecast of $5.2 billion.

Ambac shares ABK 2.47  jumped 104% during the day and marked their first close above $2 since November of  2008. The rally kicked off Thursday evening after the company said it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $558.1 million, or $1.93 a share. The improvement was largely driven by a $472 million tax benefit.

Palm continues to drive upward of another speculative buy-out rumor, but this time from HTC-the maker of the Google and Microsoft phones. Short sellers were again forced to cover their shorts as a massive gain of 58% in four days of trading.

Palm's Ship is Sinking, Shares Slip Afterhours

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

Ladies and Gentlemen, on Februay 23rd I announced that PALM(at the time, it was priced @ $9.11) looked set to crash. I had recommended to short and purchase the puts. The maker of the Treo and the  Palm Pre and Pixi with its Garnet OS 5.5 (based off of the Access Linux Platform) operating system, had sold terribly as I suspected during the 4th quarter. It was initially launched on the Sprint service and then fully launched on the Verizon network at the end of December. Verizon had launched a tremendous marketing campaign with prices slashed on the Palm Pre. This was the early signal that led me to believe Palm was in for some trouble. Nonetheless, the company had concealed information to shareholders that they had experienced production setbacks of the newly launched Pre and Pixi phones. Well, that setback which was to last only 3-5 days, had really halted production to more than a month. Nonetheless, Palm phones weren’t selling or enticing the PDA/smartphone buyers.  

This evening, Palm announced Q3 Earnings which ended February 26th (Fiscal year starts June 1st – ends May 31st) For its fiscal third quarter, Palm said it lost $18.5 million, or 13 cents a share, compared with a loss of $95 million, or 89 cents a share, for the comparable period the previous year.Excluding certain items, the company said it would have lost $102.8 million, or 61 cents a share. PALM is now down 14% afterhours trading at $4.84

Revenue more than tripled to $350 million compared to $90.6 million in the same period last year. On a non-GAAP basis, Palm said revenue would have been $366 million. Analysts were expecting the company to report a loss of 42 cents a share on revenue of $316.2 million, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters.  

The company said it shipped 960,000 smartphone units to distributors for the recent quarter. Analysts were expecting roughly 850,000 units. Smartphone sell-through to consumers was 408,000 units, lower than the range of 500,000-600,000 expected by analysts. The difference between unit shipments and sell-through illustrates lower-than-expected sales of Palm products at wireless carriers. Because of this inventory build-up, Palm expects sales to be particularly weak for the current quarter. On the conference call, the company said it expects revenue of $150 million for the May quarter. Analysts were looking for $305.8 million. A huge disappointment to shareholders but great news to our “short” investors!!!

Palm said it had $591.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments by the end of the quarter, relatively flat with $590 million at the end of the previous period. The company did not give an estimate for cash burn in the fourth quarter.

In plain English, Palm posted dramatically smaller losses on a sharp jump in sales for the third fiscal quarter, though the company’s closely watched smartphones sales to consumers fell short of expectations.

Jon Rubinstein, Palm’s CEO, admitted to “execution missteps” in a conference call with analysts and said the company is working “aggressively” to boost sales. Analysts are becoming increasingly bearish, noting that Palm is facing a rapidly closing window to carve out a space in the competitive smartphone market, where it competes with popular devices such as the iPhone, BlackBerry and Motorola Droid. I think it’s an uphill battle, and the chances for them are running out. I believe the stock is likely to trade more on the company’s asset value and takeover potential going forward. Given that its new webOS is a worthy contender and stacks up nicely against the iPhone, Android and others, it must have options. One solution could include identifying a buyer or partner for the company. Right now, it’s largely a niche player, and should be looking for a company with deep pockets, strong relationships with developers and a good distribution network. That shouldn’t be so hard given that so many companies are looking to get a piece of the smartphone action. In fact, it’s no wonder something hasn’t happened already.

I believe the best suitors may be Nokia, Dell, or Hewlett Packard. Both Dell and Hewlett Packard are venturing into the smartphone arena with recent roll outs. Click on their respective links above. I think the real value is in Palm’s webOS which they built from the ground up. I’m sure suitors have been patiently awaiting for this day to come, and purchase a great asset at a steep discount than it was, say 6 months ago. The winning suitor will gain a great asset and increase shareholder value!!! Let the best suitor win!

Oil to Hit $100

Monday, March 8th, 2010

Crude futures climbed above $82 a barrel overseas trading on Monday, extending last week’s gains on hopes of a swift recovery in the global economy. The dollar slipped as Friday’s above-forecast U.S. jobs data and easing concerns over Greek debt lifted investor demand for risk. Gold also gained, while European stocks were lower mid-morning. We’re seeing some recovery in risk appetite. The Greek issues seems to be being easing. French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised Greece on Sunday that euro zone countries would help it overcome its financial problems and vowed a crackdown on speculators who Athens blames for its woes.

Prices last week also found support after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in his report to the Chinese legislature that he would maintain an 8% growth rate for the economy this year. The positive economic outlook raised prospects for oil demand. Looking ahead, crude prices may want to challenge the January high of $83.95, with support coming from the investment side of the market. If the spot-month crude contract takes out the January high, the seasonal index would indicate an extended rally to near $100 through this summer. Oil was further supported on Monday from news that China will build two strategic oil reserve bases — a development likely to underpin demand in the world’s second-largest consumer. With global demand expected to revive in 2010, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries looks set to keep its production target unchanged when it meets on March 17, as it has for more than a year.

While I do believe what’s occuring in the Oil trade, which further supports my selected large cap stocks targeted in this industry to take advantage of rising prices. See here for my recommendations.

VLO and WMB were my two undervalued picks in the oil spectrum.

I know many of you are also interested in the Penny Stock arena, so I took the honor of researching thousands of company’s! There were two that caught my eye that are speculative buys under the ACE criteria. (The criteria is moving averages crossing which tends to be a short term hold with a huge percentage gain of +20%) Ready for them………….TECO (.025) & ESPI (.17).  I believe these two will take full advantage of oil making 2010 new highs. They’ve recently bounced off their all time low, in addition there have been heavy volume accumulating in recent weeks, that’s led me to believe they’re set to go higher. Also note they’re rapidly approaching the 200 day moving average at a rapid pace!!! Enjoy!

Please invest with caution and consult your broker prior to making a decision.

Cheers!!!

ACE

ace@wallstreetgrand.com