Archive for the ‘Small Cap Stocks’ Category

Demandware Inc (NYSE:DWRE) IPO Debuts Today

Thursday, March 15th, 2012

Today is the debut of Demandware IPO. Demandware (NYSE:DWRE) is expected to fetch a high demand. If you enjoyed Jive Software Inc (NASDAQ:JIVE) tremendous run in the e-commerce cloud computing genre then prepare yourself for the next possible winner. Demandware Inc., a provider of customized e-commerce solutions, plans to launch its IPO this week. The company has projected an IPO price range of $12.50 to $14.50 per share. With 5.5 million shares in the offering, the IPO could raise $79.1 million to $91.7 million for the company under that range. The offering would value the company at up to $326.7 million. Founded in 2004, the company creates tailored shopping experiences for consumers across all digital channels, including web, mobile and call center. The company plans to begin trading today under the NYSE ticker, DWRE

For the year ending Dec. 31, 2011, Demandware reported a net loss of $6.7 million, on revenue of $56.6 million, compared with a loss of $4.8 million, on revenue of $36.7 million in 2010, according to an SEC filing. IPO Boutique said in a note that “both the retail and institutional books are seeing heavy demand.” Demandware makes cloud-based software that helps companies design and maintain their own e-commerce websites. E-commerce was a $316 billion business in 2010, Cramer said. It could swell to a $653 billion business worldwide, though, by 2015. The total market for cloud enabled e-commerce platform services is expanding with a remarkable 21.3 percent compound annual growth rate. It is estimated to grow from a $4.3 billion business in 2010 to $11.3 billion by 2015.

That would be a big day for Demandware founder and chairman Stephan Schambach. Previously the founder of e-commerce software provider Intershop Communications, which went public in 2000, Schambach currently owns 19.6 percent of Demandware. He would own 15.7 percent after an IPO – a relatively high figure for a company founder. By way of comparison, in the recent IPO of Brightcove Inc., (NASDAQ:BCOV) founder Jeremy Allaire owned 7.1 percent post-IPO. Schambach’s 4.4 million shares of Demandware would be worth $55.1 million to $63.9 million if the IPO meets expectations.

Demandware, which has raised at least $53 million in venture capital, first filed to go public last July and the company initially sought to raise $100 million. Investors in the firm include two Massachusetts venture capital firms: Cambridge-based General Catalyst Partners and Waltham-based North Bridge Venture Partners , which each own a little less than a third of the company, pre-IPO. After the public offering, each will own 25.7 percent of Demandware. The lead managers on the IPO are Goldman, Sachs & Co. and Deutsche Bank Securities. Underwriters have the potential to buy an additional 825,000 shares in the IPO.

Guidewire Software Inc, (NYSE: GWRE) a San Mateo, California-based cloud computing company geared toward the property and casualty insurance industry, saw its January IPO price at $13, above its expected range of $10 to $12 a share. Shares of Guidewire closed Thursday at $22.08, up 70 percent from the company’s offer price.

Austin, Texas-based Bazaarvoice Inc, (NASDAQ:BV) which makes software for businesses to communicate with customers, also priced above its expected range in February. Shares of Bazaarvoice closed Thursday at $15.43, up 29 percent from the company’s IPO price.

Shares of video platform provider Brightcove Inc (NASDAQ:BCOV) are trading up 42 percent from the company’s February IPO.

Jive Software Inc, (NASDAQ:JIVE) which makes social networking software for businesses, has seen shares gain 96 percent after its December IPO.

Cloud-based software IPOs have performed unusually strongly in a weak market in which 45 percent of all deals last month priced below range.

Here’s Demandware’s website

It all started with a series of observations.

eCommerce merchandising and marketing innovation is what generates the revenue, yet most operations are spending 80% of their budgets simply maintaining current infrastructure.

The pace of ecommerce accelerates daily, yet most operations are scrambling to stand still.

Merchandisers and marketers are supremely frustrated, spending more time chasing outsourced providers and internal IT organizations, than actually merchandising and marketing their own businesses.

Founded in 2004 by Stephan Schambach, former CEO of Intershop, Demandware was formed with a clear vision that still remains today: bring to market an enterprise-class ecommerce solution that would put more power and innovation in the hands of merchandisers and at the same time would remove the technical costs, risks and complexities of running an ecommerce operation.

We brought together a team of ecommerce experts, combining years of collective knowledge of great ecommerce merchandising with the then-emerging advancements in Software-as-a-Service architectures and dynamic grid computing. And in late 2005, Demandware delivered the market’s first on-demand enterprise ecommerce platform.

A leader in on-demand ecommerce.

Demandware is now ranked as a leading on-demand ecommerce platform by industry analysts. Demandware is the ecommerce foundation of more than 200 ecommerce websites. Our clients include some of the world’s best-known retailers and brands.

Today, there are limitless opportunities for retailers to interact with consumers and Demandware is committed to paving every step of the way for our clients. Our company was founded on the premise of ecommerce innovation and that’s what we continue to focus on. Our product releases provide a constant stream of new ecommerce features that empower clients to deliver truly exceptional customized shopping experiences. Our Demandware LINK program makes it easy for clients to integrate innovative third party technologies. Through Demandware XChange, our clients have access to an exchange of information and expertise across a vast network of clients, partners and employees.

We are not just a platform provider. We are a trusted ecommerce partner. We are committed to the success of our clients as they navigate the constantly evolving digital world.As of December 31, 2011, 101 customers were operating 361 sites, which include websites, mobile apps and other digital storefronts.

A sampling of the brands they serve:

Anne Klein ASDA Bare Escentuals Barneys New York
BootBarn Brooks Burton Snowboards Callaway Golf
Columbia Sportswear Comma Crocs Deckers Outdoor Corporation
DVF Easy Spirit Elie Tahari FILA
Fredericks of Hollywood Gardeners Supply Company Gortz Hamleys
House of Fraser Jewelry             Television Jochen Schweizer Jones New York
Kate Spade New York Kiehls Lands' End L'Oreal USA
Living Direct lucy Marks & Spencer Michaels
Mirapodo Mountain Hardwear Mikasa Neckermann
Nine West OtterBox P&G Panasonic Europe
Pfaltzgraff Playmobil PUMA Rachel Roy
Reitmans Rockport Roots s.Oliver
Sally Beauty Supply Sanrio Solstice Sunglasses Sorel
Tele Danmark Theory TM Lewin
Tory Burch Urban Decay Cosmetics Wyevale Zabars

2-2-2012 Small Cap Watch List

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

Small Cap Stocks in review. Small caps reviewed AFFY, PEIX, BIOF, FRO, SIGA, AMSC, ASTI, EMKR, and QTWW. Techincal analysis breakdown with chart review.

View video here

Stock Watch Of The Evening 1-11-12

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

This evening we are launching for the first time, video log of ACE’s stock picks. Stocks have beaten down the last several months which provides a great opportunity to make tons of money. Last night, I highlighted 2 stocks prime for takeoff. Sure enough they exploded to the upside. The 2 stocks TXT January 22.50 for .02 or equivalent to $20 contracts. It had 5800 in open interest. The stock was trading at $20.25 at the time. The option contract closed up today a whopping 750% to .17. Today’s high was .36 or 1700%. That’s amazing. The second one was AMSC. A small cap stock that has been beatendown to shreds. It had 31% short float of 51 million shares outstanding. This is a target of a short sueeze. Sure enough today began it’s squeeze. Expect more gains!!

1-11-12

Worst Performing Stocks of 2011

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

As we close out the year, 2011 had been an incredibly choppy year, the economy is flirting between snail-paced growth and recession, and many companies and entire sectors are experiencing some severe business pressures or their management teams have made severe missteps. In a year when Europe’s sovereign debt woes dominated headlines, it’s no surprise that financial stocks took a beating. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs did not go unscathed, as layoffs, an uproar over bank fees and management shakeups took their toll. We want to go over the worst of stocks of 2011 based upon year-to-date performance.This group was focused on companies that trade with a market capitalization of more than $300 million and we screened out the companies which are either not liquid of roughly 500,000 average shares a day. This information was gathered off the site FinViz.

Frontline Ltd. (FRO)  -83.23%  

The Governor and Company of The Bank of Ireland (IRE) -83.03%

E-Commerce China Dangdang Inc. (DANG) -82.93%   

Renren Inc. (RENN) -81.44%

ITT Corporation (ITT) -80.25%  

Central European Distribution Corp. (CEDC) -80.04%  

Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) -78.32%  

Research In Motion Limited (RIMM) -76.05%  

National Bank of Greece SA (NBG) -75.24%  

VanceInfo Technologies Inc. (VIT) -74.41%  

OfficeMax Incorporated (OMX) -73.67%  

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) -73.34%   

Meritor, Inc. (MTOR) -71.83%  

Mechel OAO (MTL) -71.37%  

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP) -71.06% 

5 Stocks That Returned 9 Figures

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

I came across an interesting article from last weeks USAToday written by Matt Krantz. Kudos to Matt on a motivating article for investors. It comes to show with a little bit of luck and knowledge, a $5,000-$10,000 investment can go a long way. I was astonished on the return each stock produced a year. Yet again NFLX returned a whopping 836% from 2008, AAPL in 7 years returned an incredible 3760%, and SIRI in 3 years returned 2,080%. Just imagine the possibilities that came in plentiful. It’s a poor man’s dream come true. Do you have what it takes? I know no one is a perfect stock picker, and if you are, you should be sitting very pretty right now. My personal best has been by far SIRI. I’m not going to lie, but I was extremely wretched by the 80% drop the day rumor on verge of declaring bankruptcy. By sheer stupidity and luck, I managed to reinvest a small portion of my previous winners in this strickened stock. What was my rational – Howard Stern. He’s fully vested with hundreds of millions of shares so why not. I wasn’t hurting more than he was. I know, dumb rational and before you know it, a white knight saved them from the brink of destruction. Share your stories /ideas with ACE@wallstreetgrand.com!!!

Here’s the link to the article here.

ACE’s long term picks from 2010 here.

Q: What’s the biggest financial haul I could have scored from stocks if I was the best stock picker over the last five years?

A: Wouldn’t it be great, especially as an investor, if you could know what was going to happen in the future? If you had the luck, foresight or skill to pick the best stock each year, you could score some massive gains. How massive? How rich could you be if you hit the best stock of every year the past five years? It’s a gain most likely beyond your wildest dreams. To find out just how profitable having uncanny stock-picking abilities could be, let’s put some numbers behind it. Investors can take a look at the Standard & Poor’s 1500 index, which includes stocks of all sizes, and locate what the best stock in the index was each year.

Had you had the amazing luck to pick the best stock each year, your total price appreciation and winning stock each year would have been (according to Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ and USA TODAY research):

• Best of 2006: CorVel (CRVL), 275.8% gain

• Best of 2007: First Solar (FSLR), 795.2% gain

• Best of 2008: Emergent BioSolutions (EBS), 416% gain

• Best of 2009: Select Comfort (SCSS), 2,508% gain

• Best of 2010: Entropic Communications (ENTR), 293.5% gain

Imagine investing $10,000 at the start of 2006 in that year’s best stock, CorVel, and then moving your money each year to the following year’s best stock. The value of the portfolio would have grown at the end of each year to:

• 2006: $37,580

• 2007: $336,529

• 2008: $1,736,490

• 2009: $45,287,659

• 2010: $178,206,938

Yes, you read that right. If you picked the best stock of each year, your $10,000 investment would be worth $178.2 million in just five years. That’s an average annual return of 608%. Not bad. Of course, it’s easy to do this kind of analysis looking backwards. We’re all stock-picking geniuses in hindsight. Yet, at the beginning of the year, it’s all but impossible to predict what the best stock will be. Even investors who stumble on a great stock make subsequent mistakes by selling at the wrong time. Nonetheless, considering how powerful the wealth generation of stocks can be, it’s easy to understand why so many investors want to try their luck.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies and Fundamental Analysis for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com.

High Profile IPO’s Week Of July 18th; (Z,SKUL,FRAN,SXC,XNET,DNKN)

Monday, July 18th, 2011

High profile IPO’s are scheduled to launch this week. Zillow (Z), Skullcandy to lead the IPO week. Francesca’s Holdings and SunCoke Energy also to IPO this week, likely will show a strong showing based on early demand and over-subscription levels, The heavy action may continue into next week, when the parent company of Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin-Robbins is expected to make its debut in a deal currently expected to be worth about $400 million.

Zillow, (Z) operator of a popular online real-estate site, is expected to begin trading Wednesday on the Nasdaq Global Market under the ticker symbol “Z.” The company raised the estimated price range of its IPO on Friday, pushing the total value of the deal above $62 million at the high end. Zillow “is going to be the beneficiary of several Internet-based IPOs that have done extremely well such as LinkedIn, Yandex, & Pandora. The company plans to sell about 3.46 million shares at an estimated price range of $16 to $18 a share, a $4 increase from its original proposed price range of $12 to $14. Underwriters on the deal include Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Allen & Company, and Pacific Crest Securities.

Also expected to trade Wednesday is Skullcandy Inc., which makes headphones and other gear for portable electronic devices. The company plans to offer 8.3 million shares at a price range of $17-$19 per share. It plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the “SKUL” ticker symbol. Skullcandy, which had at one point planned to launch its roadshow in June, just days after the euphoric Pandora opening, is an interesting story as well. Skullcandy will command a market value of $514 million. Skullcandy, which was founded in 2003, booked $175 million in sales over the last 12 months. Unlike many young tech companies that would like to go public, it had been largely profitable since 2006, and generated just over $1 million in net income during the first quarter. Still, it has faced a couple of headwinds, including a huge loss of nearly $10 million last year. In addition, the recent resignation of Skullcandy’s founder and CEO, Rick Alden, after what the company’s public filings describe as complaints from employees and “improper workplace conduct.”

Specialty women’s clothing boutique Francesca’s Holdings Corp. is scheduled to trade on the Nasdaq on Friday under the symbol “FRAN.” It is expected to sell 10 million shares at an estimated price range of $14 to $16 a share. Similar specialty retailers have seen strong aftermarket performance since their launches. Vera Bradley Inc. (NASDAQ:VRA) is up 25% year-to-date, and Body Central Corp. (NASDAQ:BODY) is up 60% year-to-date. Francesca’s operates a chain of trendy women’s boutiques with 249 locations in 38 states, plans to raise $150 million by offering 10 million shares at a price range of $14 to $16. At the mid-point of the proposed range, Francesca’s Holdings will command a market value of $681 million. Francesca’s Holdings, which was founded in 1999, booked $151 million in sales over the last 12 months.The operator of Francesca’s Collections stores focuses on fashion-conscious 18- to 35-year-olds and designs locations ‘to feel like independently owned, upscale boutiques. Its debut plans come as Americans have been picking up their spending as the job market improves, yet unemployment is high in the U.S. and expected to remain so for some time. Consumers also face higher costs for gas and food. The luxury segment of the retail market has been a bright spot. Specifically, the company has about $41.4 million in proceeds from the offering earmarked toward repaying a senior secured credit facility. Remaining funds may be used for opening new stores and growing its e-commerce business. For the year ended Jan. 29, Francesca’s swung to a profit as sales jumped 70%. Same-store sales climbed 15% on top of a 9.8% increase a year earlier.

Based in the price range mid-point of $15 and annulazing the three months ended April 2011, FRAN is valued at 4.3 times sales, 35 times earnings and -83 times book value (because FRAN has a negative book value) Compared with others in the industry, FRAN’s price-to-earnings ratio of 35 is the highest, and its price-to-book value is the lowest.

Metallurgical coke producer SunCoke Energy is expected trade Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “SXC.” The Sunoco Inc. (NYSE:SUN) spinoff plans to sell 11.6 million shares at an estimated price range of $15 to $17. SunCoke Energy (SXC), the largest independent producer of high-thequality metallurgical coke in the Americas, plans to raise $186 million by offering 11.6 million shares at a price range of $15 to $17. At the mid-point of the proposed range, SunCoke Energy will command a market value of $1.1 billion. SunCoke Energy, which was founded in 1962, booked $533 million in sales over the last 12 months. The Lisle, IL-based company plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol SXC. Credit Suisse, BofA Merrill Lynch, and Goldman, Sachs & Co. are the lead underwriters on the deal.

Chinese Internet video company Xunlei Limited. is expected to trade Wednesday on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “XNET”. Xunlei Limited, which offers accelerated download software and online video services in China, plans to raise $114 million by offering 7.6 million ADSs at a price range of $14 to $16. At the mid-point of the proposed range, Xunlei Limited will command a market value of $1 billion. Xunlei Limited, which was founded in 2003, booked $47 million in sales over the last 12 months. The Shenzhen-based company plans to list on the NASDAQ under the symbol XNET. J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank Securities are the lead underwriters on the deal. Xunlei Ltd, a Chinese Internet platform company is partly owned by Google.

The core download acceleration functionality makes Xunlei Downloader the most popular download acceleration application in China, with a 78.7% market share based on the number of software launches among all download software in China in February 2011, according to iResearch. Xunlei Downloader was used in an average of approximately 138 million downloads per day in 2010. These downloads are available to internet users free of charge. To complement XNET’s download services and to further broaden users access to video content via online streaming, XNET also launched an online video streaming services in 2007 on the Xunlei Kankan website. Xunlei Kankan is the third largest video streaming portal in China, as measured by the monthly unique visitors from homes and offices in April 2011 according to iResearch. Xunlei Kankan had 120.7 million monthly unique visitors from homes and offices in April 2011. XNET’s target range of monthly unique visitors that XNET currently tries to maintain is from 110 million to 140 million. According to iResearch. Xunlei Kankan had 120.7 million monthly unique visitors from homes and offices in April 2011.

XNET generates revenues from multiple sources, including cloud-based subscription services, online advertising, and other services. Multiple revenue streams provide with both revenue diversification and multiple growth areas. XNET implemented its current cloud-based subscription service revenue model in March 2009 and, by the end of March 2011 had developed over 1.3 million subscribers from the large user base of Xunlei Downloader and Xunlei Kankan. XNET also generates online advertising revenues derived principally from various forms of advertisements that XNET places on Xunlei Kankan and Xunlei Downloader. The continued strong growth of subscription-based business in the first quarter of 2011, as evidenced by a rapid increase of the subscribers of XNET’s premium download-related services from 898,494 as of November 30, 2010 to 1,290,000 as of March 21, 2011; The launch of an iPad-version of Xunlei Kankan, a key strategic initiative which enjoyed immediate market acceptance upon release, is expected to bring new business opportunities to XNET. XNET entered into a series of exclusive content licensing agreements with content owners and secured the exclusive rights of two blockbuster movies in the first quarter of 2011. XNET entered into framework agreements with some major brand advertisers that further support the value of Xunlei Kankan as a leading online streaming platform.

XNET faces significant competition in different areas of its business. XNET’s Xunlei Kankan website competes with other major online video companies such as Youku.com (NYSE:YOKU) and Tudou.com. XNET’s Xunlei Downloader primarily competes with e-Mule, FlashGet and Tencent with QQ Cyclone (TCEHY.PK). Sohu.com (SOHU, $3 billion market cap) has committed to buying $10 million in a concurrent private placement that they will hold for at least 180 days. XNET has a ‘material weakness’ in its accounting systems it expects to rectify by the end of 2012. Even though top line revenue is increasing on a sequential quarterly basis, gross profit in the last six quarters has dropped from 78% to 61%, operating income has dropped from 18% to 15%, and net income has dropped form 20% to 13%. In the last three quarters net income declined from the September quarter ($2.7 million) to the December quarter ($2 million) to March the quarter ($1.9 million). At the price range mid-point of $15, XNET would sell for 41 times annualized March 2011 quarter earnings and 5.6 times sales. At the IPO price of $15 XNET may be a risky speculation in the short term.

Muddy Waters At It Again (NASDAQ:SPRD)

Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

I want to share this with the community as I feel should be made public not only to day traders or traders alike but to the general public. Lately many Emerging economies have been rushing to join the US exchanges. This is of course is good but bad in a way if they do not adhere to SEC accounting regulations. Many investors could potentionally be hurt if they’re falling prey to hot Indian, Chinese, or other hot market stocks.  Today I witnessed once again, a negative report targeting a Chinese Company trading on the NASDAQ with a market cap of $200 million. I’ve witnessed this poor company lose almost 50% of it’s market cap due to a report that negatively or quite prescriptively bravely calling out improper accounting practices by yet another Chinese company listed on the US exchanges. It’s either the SEC is missing something within their due diligence or Chinese firms are falsely smudging their numbers. I’d like to share my opinion in both positive & negative aspects of this wild ride in this stock. In any event this action sure damaged many stock holders in a company named Spreadtrum Communications (Nasdaq:SPRD); a fabless semiconductor company that designs, develops and markets baseband processor, radio frequency (RF) transceiver and turnkey solutions for the wireless communications and mobile television market. The Company offers a portfolio of integrated baseband processor solutions that support a range of wireless communications standards, including global system for mobile communications (GSM), general packet radio service (GPRS) and time division synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA), an international third generation (3G) standard for wireless communications promoted by China. Its solutions also offer a range of multimedia capabilities, such as television-out, moving picture experts group layer-3 audio (MP3) digital audio playback, touchscreen, JAVA acceleration, motion picture experts group 4 (MPEG4) and 64-channel polyphonic ringtone playback. In June 2011, the Company acquired 8.44% of MobilePeak Holdings, Ltd.

Let me give you the play by play in short form. The Muddy Waters report found below was released @ 11:20 AM. Blocks of 444,000 shares were sold. For the next 27 mins the stock was in a fire sale and badly damaged. By 11:47 almost 11 million shares were exchanged or mostly sold short. In that 27 minute period, SPRD went from $13.29 to $8.59. That’s a 54% gain on the short!!! That was a quick gain in short time. But ironically it’s not over….the stock begins to turn back up. From these levels, I thought it was oversold, so it was bound to recoup some losses. From $8.59, SPRD caressed the weighted moving average to $ 9.32 then dropped back down to $8.80. I figured it would settle around these levels…..but it continued it’s upward bounce to the 100 day moving average. By 12:10, SPRD had bounced from $8.80 to $11.44 resulting a 30% gain. An advanced trader with the proper tools could have scalped anywhere from 20% to 75% gains in 20-50 minutes. That’s a lot of money to be made by a fast acting trader. With trades like these, you have to be thankful of this one time opportunity. These don’t come often, believe me!!!

As we all know, one who gains is another’s lost. There’s always 2 sides to the stock market game. Think about the investors or institution that own this stock. What if they had placed a stop limit order….OUCH!!!! That’s a terrible loss. You think it would be fair, for a known short -seller to make such an announcement knowingly this will significantly pressure the stock downward. Let’s take for example the Hedge Fund investor named John Paulson experienced with Sino-Forest. Muddy Waters was again the culprit in this damaging find more descriptively found below. Muddy Water’s report cost John Paulson’s Fund to lose $500 million. You think Mr. Paulson will choose Mr. Block to be his advisor, because apparently his team messed this one up pretty badly. This is what happens when you’re on the wrong side of the trade.

In the options Market, traders were also hurt. Opening investors blitzed bearish puts that grant the right to sell shares for prices such as $9, $10, $11 by the July expiration. Spreadtrum’s options volume soared to the highest level on record, Trade Alert data showed. Still, those who reached for exceptionally bearish Spreadtrum positions were stung by the stock’s quick snap-back. Buyers of $5 July puts paid an average of $1.50 for the contracts early in the session. Those contracts fell in value to just 30 cents later in the afternoon. More than 124,000 Spreadtrum puts changed hands versus 42,000 calls, which grant the right to buy shares.

Is Mr. Block of Muddy Waters a Victor or Villain or is the SEC too slow to react?

Read this report issued by Muddy Waters run by Carson C. Block. It was an open letter to SPRD Chairman Li. Apparently this report was released to Reuters which then sparked a massive fire sale. To be exact, a 1565%  increase from avg daily volume. See the chart above. Actual report in it’s entirety is found here.

So who is Carson Block? Muddy Waters describes the 34-year-old as “an entrepreneur who’s practiced law and pioneered an industry in China.” He founded a company called Love Box Self Storage, “a near luxury service for high income Chinese consumers. Prior to his entrepreneur days, he was an attorney for Jones Day in Shanghai, where he acted primarily for foreign clients involved in direct investment and M&A in China. He speaks Madrin, and after practicing as a lawyer for one year (he said originally he thought he’d never practice after law school), he switched into research for hedge funds and for his father, who’s an investor. He’s also an adjunct professor of the Chicago-Kent College of Law, where he graduated with a JD, and teaches an overseas program in Shanghai for the school. He earned a B.S in Business Administration from the Marshall School of Business at USC. He founded Muddy Waters in June of 2010 and told Barron’s that what he does, in one sentence is: “exposing what I believe are substantial frauds before they suck up more money from investors.”

Here’s a video of Mr. Block on a CNBC interview on April 12, 2011.

Muddy Waters The Chinese have an old proverb, “浑水摸鱼” (muddy waters make it easy to catch fish). In other words, opacity creates opportunities to make money. This way of thinking has been part of Chinese culture for centuries, and it is institutionalized in the modern PRC. Western investors and their regulatory systems are inherently unprepared for muddy waters environments. Moreover, Harvard-educated Chinese analysts based in New York usually have little more in common with Chinese company managers than you do. As a result, many sub-par Chinese companies find ways to game the system and trade at inflated values. At the same time, a number of well-run and well-positioned companies are under-appreciated because their managements, often abandoned by RTO or IPO sponsors, are awkward to foreign investors.

Reuters Reporting below

Muddy Waters Research, a firm specializing in finding Chinese companies it believes are frauds, shorts the firms’ shares and publicizes the charges on its website. Muddy Waters first gained prominence last June with a scathing report against Orient Paper Inc (ONP.A), which it called a “fraud” that had overstated its 2009 revenue by about 40 times. The company disputed the allegations, but the stock, which closed at $8.41 the day before the report, now trades at $3.71, down 56.5 percent. All of the relatively small firm’s subsequent reports had similarly outsized impacts — a source of controversy to critics.

“If something doesn’t work out … these guys could have a situation where they went after a company and made money but couldn’t substantiate their claims,” said Boyd, who has also written critical reports, but does not hold positions in the companies he writes about. The Muddy Waters reports “were brilliantly reported and laid out, but you can never get past the fact that they’re doing this for money,” Roddy Boyd, the editor of thefinancialinvestigator.com in Wilmington, North Carolina told Reuters last month.

Others are not as glowing. Drew Bernstein, the chairman of Orient Paper’s audit committee and co-managing partner of Marcum Bernstein & Pinchuk in New York, last month said the Muddy Waters report was full of “enormous allegations” that were untrue and that a lawsuit against the firm was probably justified. But so far Muddy Waters’ influence has only grown with each subsequent report. Duoyuan Global Water Inc (DGW.N) slumped 29.3 percent from its close before the April 4 report until April 19, when its shares were halted. They have not traded since. RINO International (RINO.PK) plummeted 96.5 percent, from $15.52 before the report to 55 cents currently, while China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME.PK) is down 91.8 percent to $1.28. Both stocks were delisted by the Nasdaq following the charges and currently trade on the pink sheets.So far it has made money on its first six bets.

Many would envy the firm’s record as even the most experienced short sellers have a number of misses before they hit the jackpot. And even when stock watchers are correct about a company being overvalued, it can sometimes take the market several years to catch up to the prediction. Muddy Waters’ track record is based on a Reuters analysis of the published research that is available on the firm’s website. It is not clear whether Muddy Waters or its director of research Carson Block have made other research calls or taken other positions. The target prior to SPRD was the infamous Sino-Forest Corp(TRE.TO), a forestry plantation company whose shares fell 65 percent after the firm, led by Block, accused the company of theft and fraud. Sino-Forest fought back on Monday, accusing Muddy Waters of defamation and saying it was mulling its legal options. The response helped shares rise more than 50 percent to C$8.01, though they remains well below its last close before the report at C$18.21.

Of the five companies Muddy Waters is known to have advised investors to sell, with all asserting some level of accounting irregularities, two have been delisted from the NASDAQ and one has not traded since April. Of the two that continue to trade, neither has come anywhere close to approaching the levels they changed hands at before the reports. But a portfolio comprised of these six companies would be up an estimated 66.9 percent if the investor had shorted the shares and bought in the day before each report was issued. If the trader had leveraged their bets using options, the returns could be even larger. ”If you’re going to make accusations of fraud the way Muddy Waters does, you’re going to have to be correct” to be effective,said Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management in New York. “You need a greater standard of care.” Block agrees, saying short-sellers have to be accurate in their reports because false claims would diminish their credibility and limit their influence on shares, a major revenue source. The firm discloses that it shorts the stocks it covers but does not disclose the amount it has in assets under management.

Partial Open Letter below

Dear Chairman Li:
Muddy Waters, LLC has begun researching SPRD, and we have taken a short position in
it.  (Please see our disclaimer on the last page.)  We have identified a number of issues in
SPRD’s filings, and we believe that there is a high risk of material misstatement in the
reported financials since the time of Dr. Ping Wu’s resignation.  Our concerns are gravest
regarding 2010 and 2011 numbers.
We are writing you an open letter so that our concerns and hopefully your responses are
transparent to SPRD shareholders.  The following letter contains questions relating to
many of our areas of concern.  Should you send us your response, we are happy to
disseminate it.
I. SPRD reported that revenue increased 229.6% in 2010, after generally being
flat in 2007-2009.   Can you please explain the sales increase in light of the
following 2009 management changes:
o Founder Ping Wu resigned as CEO in February 2009.   According to a
July 2010 interview in a respected business publication,
1 Mr. Wu resigned because the board had lost confidence in him.  SPRD’s sales cycle is four
to nine months
2 and the turnaround began almost immediately after Mr. Wu resigned – revenue grew quarter over quarter in Q3 2009 by 136.6%.
Therefore, the improved sales pipeline would have been evident under Mr. Wu.
 Why would the board have lost confidence in Mr. Wu when the sales pipeline was so promising?
o We note that CFO Richard Wei resigned in April 2009, which was one month before SPRD completed a $44 million financing.
 Because it would be unusual to fire a CFO during the financing process, is it fair to assume that he chose to leave?
 If “yes”, why would he have left with such strong sales in the pipeline?
II. MediaTek (2454.TW) had approximately 90% of the mainland China mobile
handset chip market in 2009.  Mobile handset chips are by far its largest
revenue source – currently accounting for more than 70% of revenue.
3
Estimates now place MediaTek’s mainland market share at only 70%, with
SPRD at 20% (an increase of about 15 percentage points).  (It appears that
these estimates are based in part on SPRD’s reported numbers.)  However,
MediaTek reported that its 2010 revenue decreased by 1.4%.
For MediaTek, which relies heavily on mobile handset chips, to have reported
a sales decline of only 1.4% while seemingly losing 15 percentage points of
market share to SPRD, the mainland China market for mobile handset chips
must have grown substantially in 2010.
However, we note that both SPRD and MediaTek faced headwinds as
mainland China authorities cracked down in 2010 on gray market handset
manufacturers.  At the high end of the market, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:
QCOM) only grew its 2010 revenue 5.5%.
By how much did SPRD’s mainland China markets (by product type) grow in
2010?
III. SPRD’s disclosure related to its 2010 revenue is unhelpful and opaque.  The
2009 20-F disclosed RF transceiver and baseband semiconductor sales figures.
However, the 2010 20-F does not discuss sales of these products.  Instead the
2010 20-F discusses the percentage gains for sales of all bundled
semiconductors (without ascribing any dollar values).
We take issue with the opaque 2010 disclosure because we believe that issuers
should provide “apples to apples” information in successive periods, and the
2010 disclosure is frankly vague and unhelpful.
What were 2010 sales of RF transceivers, baseband semiconductors, and any
other products SPRD began selling in 2010?
IV. SPRD’s lack of any cash income tax payment in 2010 is inconsistent with
prior years as well as the PRC’s provisional tax payment requirements.  The
table below shows SPRD’s pre-tax income, income tax provisions, and cash
taxes paid for 2008 – 2010.The PRC Enterprise Income Tax law requires that companies pay provisional
income tax on a monthly or quarterly basis.  Companies must file a
provisional tax return within 15 days of the close of the month or quarter
along with the provisional payment.
If SPRD generated $75.3 million in pre-tax profit in 2010, why didn’t it make
any cash tax payments?
V. The near simultaneous turnover in 2009 among SPRD’s CFO, audit
committee, and auditor is troubling.  In October 2009, SPRD’s CFO, David
Wu, resigned after only four months in the role.  This was the second CFO in
2009 to resign.  In September 2009, audit committee member Ken Lu resigned
from the board.  In September 2009, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu was
“removed” as auditor, and replaced by another Big Four auditor,
PriceWaterhouseCoopers Zhong Tian.
Given that the turnover occurred while SPRD was in the midst of a stunning
turnaround, did the resignations and removal have anything to do with
discomfort about SPRD’s accounting?  If not, what were the reasons each
resigned (or was removed in the case of Deloitte)?

Largest Rare-Earth Metal Mine In US Is Open

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE:MCP) announced that it has secured the final funds necessary for the capital build-out of its estimated $781 million expansion and modernization project at its flagship rare-earth oxides facility at Mountain Pass, California. The first phase of its mining project is expected to be operational by next year. When completed, the mine will be the first time in a decade that rare-earth oxides are being produced in the United States, which once lead the world in such production. The alloys and magnets that are produced from the rare-earth metals are needed for a range of today’s emerging high-tech and electronic systems and devices, from wind turbines to computer batteries to smartphones to hybrid and electric cars. Today, 95% of the rare-earth metals needed for today’s technologies are extracted in China.

When Phase 1 of the project is completed, expected to occur next year, Molycorp says its manufacturing assets will comprise the world’s first fully integrated rare earth manufacturing supply chain, producing high-purity rare earth oxides, metals, alloys, and neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets, widely used in transportation, high tech, clean energy, defense, and other industries. The re-opening of the site, closed in 2002, offers a  hedge against China’s dominance of the world’s supply of rare-earth metals. Worldwide demand for the elements reached 125,000 tons in 2010, and is expected to grow to 225,000 tons by 2015.

According to a report in The Economist, cheap labor in China ate into the profitability of the Mountain Pass site a decade ago:

“A decade ago America was the world’s largest producer of rare-earth metals. But its huge open-cast mine at Mountain Pass, California, closed in 2002—a victim mainly of China’s drastically lower labor costs. Today, China produces 95% of the world’s supply of rare-earth metals, and has started limiting exports to keep the country’s own high-tech industries supplied.”

The rare-earth element of greatest value is is neodymium, the key ingredient of super-strong permanent magnets: “Over the past year the price of neodymium has quadrupled as electric motors that use permanent magnets instead of electromagnetic windings have gained even wider acceptance,” according to The Economist. Cheaper, smaller and more powerful, permanent-magnet motors and generators have made modern wind turbines and electric vehicles viable.” The Economist adds, however, that not all electric car makers seek rare earth metals, including the Tesla Roadster, the BMW Mini-E, or AC Propulsion. “The latest carmaker to seek a rare-earth alternative is Toyota. The world’s largest carmaker is reported to be developing a neodymium-free electric motor for its expanding range of hybrid cars.”

Molycorp, research by Dahlman Rose, one of the research firms that has been most bullish on the stock, has a target on the shares to $120 to reflect potential dilution attributable to the company’s recent issue of $230 million in convertible debt. Dahlman Rose said it still views Molycorp as the best way to participate in the rare earths industry and that the company can still generate outsized returns even in a much lower price environment for rare earths. Speaking of the price environment for rare earths, the Rare Earth Stocks Index is soaring 2.9% on news that Chinese exports of the 17 elements used to make a variety of high-tech and military gadgets fell 8.8% in the first five months of this year compared against the year-earlier period. Declining Chinese exports are believed to be one of the catalysts behind the recent surge in rare earths as China controls 95% of the rare earths export market.

Chinese exports fell to 23,742 metric tons in the January-May 2011 period, the Wall Street Journalreported, citing China’s Economic Information & Agency. Beijing also reiterated its vow to remain vigilant against violators of the export quotas, the Journal reported.

Previous posts of rare-earths and MolyCorp can be found here

Molycorp’s Mine -

Products made from Rare Earths

Spirit Airlines (NASDAQ:SAVE); Delays Airline IPO Take Off

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

Spirit Airlines, a private U.S. carrier specializing in low-priced flights to Latin America and the Caribbean, the airline is offering 20 million shares at $14 to $16 each to raise as much as $320 million after it priced its initial public offering at $14-$16 a share on Wednesday, May 25, 2011. But before I continue I’d like to disclose just in the last hour as I write this article, the underwriters announced delaying plans of the IPO. It initially filed with U.S. regulators to raise up to $300 million in its IPO last September. Citigroup Global Markets and Morgan Stanley are lead underwriters for the offering, which will see Spirit list its shares on NASDAQ under the “SAVE” symbol. The airline, which calls itself an “ultra low-cost” carrier, keeps ticket prices low by unbundling items and services from its base fares. Spirit Airlines, sporting remarkably low unit costs as well as three consecutive years of profitability.

The company said it plans to use the IPO proceeds to repay debt and pay private equity firm Indigo. Major airlines have adopted similar structures in recent years and have managed to generate substantial ancillary revenue streams by unbundling services like bag checks. Chief Executive Officer Ben Baldanza made Spirit the first U.S. airline to charge for carry-on luggage, adding fees last year ranging from $30 to $45 for bags that must go in the overhead bins. Baldanza said the fee was to encourage passengers to check luggage instead, which would save 5 to 7 minutes between each flight as passengers tussle over storage space in the cabin. They’re perhaps the most aggressive among U.S. carriers on ancillary fees, but at the same time in fairness, they have significantly reduced prices associated with removing services. Every airline is charging for baggage fee with the exception of Southwest Airlines (LUV)

Use of Proceeds – SAVE expects to net $276 million from the IPO and intentds to use $124mm to repay debt, $1.6 million for management termination fee and the balance of $150 million for general corporate purposes, including cash reserves, working capital (including termination of the letter of credit facility), sales and marketing activities, general and administrative matters and capital expenditures, including future flight equipment acquisitions.

The largest shareholder with 59% of Sprit is Indigo, a private equity fund headed by Bill Franke, who was chairman and CEO of America West Airlines between 1993 and 2001. Indigo has invested in half a dozen ultra-low cost carriers worldwide, includeVolaris in Mexico and Mandala in Indonesia.Another private equity fund, Oaktree Capital Management, owns 34% of Spirit. Spirit’s top officer, CEO Ben Baldanza, was paid $820,990 in 2009 including $46,750 in stock.

About Spirit Airlines

Website can be found here

Spirit began operations in 1980 as Charter One, a Detroit-based charter tour operator that provided travel packages to entertainment destinations. In 1992, Charter One changed its name to Spirit Airlines and began offering flights from Detroit to Atlantic City. The carrier added destinations throughout the 1990s and added Latin American cities starting in 2001. It now serves 40 destinations. Spirit employs 2,300 people to run its EADS Airbus fleet. Florida-based Spirit operates more than 150 flights a day, but carries less than 1 percent of U.S. air passenger traffic.

Spirit Airlines Inc., the U.S. carrier that charges for carry-on luggage, is seeking to sell shares today at a discount to bigger low-cost airlines as rising fuel prices crimp industry profits and force higher fares.

Private equity firm Indigo Partners LLC bought a majority stake in Spirit in 2006. The firm also invests in airlines with similar models, including Mexico’s Volaris, Singapore’s Tiger Airways, Russia’s Avianova and Hungary-based Wizz Air. Oaktree Capital Management LP is the second-biggest investor. Neither firm plans to sell shares in the IPO, according to the prospectus.

Spirit operates a fleet of 35 Airbus SAS A320-family jets serving 40 cities, including Cancun, Mexico; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and St. Thomas. It also flies to cities where immigrants and their families often travel, such as Bogota.

The shares will trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol SAVE.

Spirit’s planes average about 5 years of age, while Las Vegas-based Allegiant operates a fleet of 52 Boeing Co. MD-80 aircraft that are 21 years old on average. Allegiant has a market value of about $900 million.

Non-Ticket Revenue – Non-ticket revenue is a critical part of SAVE’s business model. Non-ticket revenue per passenger flight segment has grown by 600% since 2006.

Products and Services — SAVE provides low-fare passenger airline service primarily to leisure and VFR travelers. SAVE offers basic passenger airline service for a low fare combined with other optional travel-related products or services for additional fees. Fares do not require a minimum stay (e.g., Saturday night stay). Low fares are designed to stimulate demand from price-sensitive leisure and VFR travelers who might not otherwise have flown to destinations, due to the expense or inconvenience involved in traveling there.

Financials/Valuations

The Miramar, Florida-based Spirit would be valued at about $951.6 million, or 13 times 2010 earnings. That compares with 19 times for JetBlue Airways Corp. and 21 times for Southwest Airlines Co. Allegiant Travel Co., the closest to Spirit in size, trades at a multiple of 14.

Spirit is a niche airline servicing customers who pay for their own travel. Comparing the March 2011 quarter with the 2010 quarter: Revenue was up 27% to $233 million; Profit was up 12% to $28 million. The airline’s average base fare in the first quarter was $82, about 40 percent lower than Southwest’s. Spirit fills empty seats with fares as low as $9, then boosts revenue through fees of as much as $45 for carry-on bags that other U.S. airlines allow for free.

Spirit reported net income of $84 million on revenue of $700 million in 2009. In the first half of 2010, revenue totaled $335 million as the carrier lost $2.8 million, apparently as the result of a five-day pilot strike in June. Spirit reported net income of $1.4 million in 2007 and $33 million in 2008.

Spirit’s operating income as a percentage of sales was 15.9 in 2009, “among the highest in the U.S. airline industry,” according to the company’s prospectus. Last year, the margin dropped to 8.8 percent on fuel prices and a pilot strike. The airline’s cost for each seat flown a mile, an industry benchmark, was 8.77 cents last year, compared with 8.95 cents for Allegiant.

Annualizing the March quarter for price to earnings the ratios are: SAVE (8); ALGT (13). On a price to book basis SAVE is at a preimum to ALGT, the ratios are; SAVE (2.8); ALGT (2.4). On a price to sales basis the ratios are comparable: SAVE, (1.0), ALGT (1.1). Both SAVE and ALGT are priced at a premium compared to JetBlue (JBLU), Sky West (SKYW) and Southwest Airlines (LUV). The following ratios respectively are for price to sales, price to earnings, and price to book.

JetBlue Airways: 0.4, 152, 1.1
SkyWest: 0.2, -19, 0.6
Southwest Airlines: 0.8, 459, 1.4

In the past year ALGT’s stock peaked at $55.63 and is down 16% from the high to $46.79. SAVE is an interesting speculation on the IPO based on the P/E comparison and also on SAVE’s growth plan based below. BUT…..What about pressured margins which were shown in 2010 due to increased Fuel Costs.

Growth Plan — SAVE intends to add 33 new A320-family aircraft to a present fleet of 26 A319, seven A320 and two A321 aircraft. The new A320s are configured with 178 passenger seats as compared to 150 passenger seats per plane utilized by some of competitors, including JetBlue Airways.

Industry

Three main categories of passenger airlines operate in the markets in which SAVE competes: the traditional or legacy network airlines, domestic regional airlines and low-cost carriers.

(1) The passenger airline industry in the United States has been dominated historically by the traditional network carriers, which presently consist of American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and US Airways.

(2) Regional airlines, such as Air Wisconsin, American Eagle, Comair, Horizon, Mesa, Mesaba, Pinnacle, Republic and SkyWest, typically operate smaller aircraft on lower-volume routes than the network airlines and most low-cost airlines.

(3) Low-cost carriers largely developed in the wake of deregulation of the U.S. airline industry in 1978, which permitted competition on many routes for the first time and thereby introduced fare competition on those routes. The largest airlines based in the United States that define themselves as low-cost carriers include: Southwest Airlines, JetBlue Airways, AirTran Airways, Allegiant Travel Company, Frontier Airlines (now owned by Republic Airlines) and Virgin America. Southwest Airlines and AirTran Airways merged in May 2011, but continue to operate as separate carriers.

Dangers/Headwinds In Investing In Airlines – Fuel, Labor Costs

The U.S. commercial aviation landscape is dotted with failures, with 100 carriers filing for bankruptcy or ceasing service since 1989, according to the Air Transport Association, a Washington-based trade group that represents U.S. airlines.

Fuel surpassed labor as most airlines’ biggest cost last year, and accounted for 35 percent of Spirit’s expenses in 2010. Spirit’s focus on leisure travelers means it can’t count on demand from higher-fare business passengers, whose trips are paid for by their employers, to blunt any loss of vacationers who might be deterred by higher fares.

Six systemwide fare increases taken by the five biggest U.S. carriers in the first quarter didn’t overcome a 41 percent increase from a year earlier in the price of jet fuel for immediate delivery in New York harbor. The combined net loss for United Continental Holdings Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., AMR Corp., Southwest and US Airways Group Inc. widened to $1.08 billion in the period from $978 million a year earlier.

Labor accounted for 22 percent of Spirit’s costs in 2010, with about half of its 2,300 employees represented by unions. Spirit’s operations were crippled last year by a pilot strike for about a week, when members of the Air Line Pilots Association walked off the job after three years of negotiations failed to result in a contract. It was the first strike at a U.S. passenger airline since Northwest Corp. mechanics had a stoppage in 2005. Spirit’s pilots, represented by the Air Line Pilots Association, staged a six-day strike in June after U.S.-mediated talks failed to bridge differences with management over pay, scheduling and benefits. The strike at Spirit was the first notable job action at a U.S. passenger airline since Northwest Airlines mechanics walked off the job in 2005. Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) bought Northwest in 2008.

Spirit, which flies mostly between Florida and the Caribbean, is looking to raise funds for future plane purchases and to pay off debt as jet-fuel hovers at about $3.05 a gallon, near the highest levels since 2008. Gulfstream International Group Inc., the last passenger airline to hold an IPO, sold shares in 2007 and filed for bankruptcy last year.

A potential risk is that low-fare competitors such as AirTran and JetBlue continue to expand in the Caribbean and Latin America. One sign of their growth occurred last week, when both carriers announced nearly simultaneously that they would begin Tampa-San Juan, Puerto Rico service next year.

Most airlines would never even think about doing equity right now, with fuel at a three-year high and the outlook somewhat “uncertain” for the economy. As I scavenged through countless reports and financial statements on Spirit Airlines, a news wire hit ironically about Spirit Airlines. It read Spirit has delayed plans to price its initial public offering, an underwriter told Reuters on Tuesday, May 24th, 2011. I think Goldman’s upgrade on Oil and Gold targets spooked them. It’s ashame, regardless I’ve provided my full unbiased analysis as for maybe that one day when they do plan to begin trading on the exchanges, investors will readily have this information.