Archive for the ‘Technical Stocks’ Category

Markets Are On Monday Muteness

Monday, November 14th, 2011

Last week the markets were in a tug and pull action after the debt ridden issues Italy took front and center attention away from Greece. Two “Technocrat” governments are forming in Greece and Italy. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) clawed out a weekly gain, and held onto its perch above 30. With global investors still on edge, and significant technical hurdles just overhead, stocks remain stuck in limbo on the charts. Option expirations are set for this Friday the the 18th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 12,153.68) and S&P (SPX – 1,263.85), finished in the green last week, overcoming a 390-point drop in the DJIA on Wednesday.

SPX continue to dance around their year-to-date breakeven points for the year, which are located at 1,257. During last week’s roller-coaster ride, it’s interesting that the SPX’s low on Wednesday was 1,226, a resistance point in September and October. The 1,225 area was one we flagged as being critical while the market grinded higher from its October lows, as it is the site of the SPX’s historically significant 80-month moving average, and a 50% retracement of this year’s May high and October low. That said, the SPX continues to struggle in the 1,257-1,260 area, which coincides with its 2011 breakeven, its lows in March and June, and a 61.8% retracement of the calendar-year high and lows.

Despite the presence of these technical speed bumps, we continue to believe the sentiment backdrop is one in which equities can muster enough buying power to clear these hurdles. For example, as we said last week, put buying on equities relative to call buying recently peaked at a two and a half-year high, indicating an extreme in pessimism that could mark a major market bottom.

Moreover, we are noticing increased call buying relative to put buying on CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX – 30.04) options, after a long period in which put buying predominated and the market fell sharply. The change in the ratio’s direction suggests that market movers, such as hedge fund managers, could be using VIX calls to hedge stocks they are accumulating.

Speaking of the VIX, we find it interesting that the late-October low in the 24 area was half the August peak at 48, while recent peaks on Nov. 1 and Nov. 9 at the 36 area marked a 50% advance from the trough of 24. So, as we said a few weeks ago, not only is VIX 30 significant, but so are VIX 24 and 36 as the market continues to bounce around critical technical levels. Therefore, if the VIX moves below 30, we would view this as an acceptable level at which you can purchase your portfolio insurance to help ride out any sharp, overnight declines.

Finally, we’re currently on the cusp of options expiration week. Therefore, exchange-traded fund (ETF) options may impact the price action and levels to watch during the course of the week. For example, the 127 and 128 areas on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) — which correspond to 1,270 and 1,280 on the SPX — are the site of heavy call open interest relative to put open interest, and could act as resistance on rallies. Pullbacks to 124 or 125 — which correspond to 1,240 and 1,250 on the SPX — could provide support, as these strikes are home to heavy put open interest.

Technical speed bumps remain overhead, and headline risks linger, suggesting hedging is still a prudent strategy. But a breakout above resistance levels could be very rewarding for bulls, as short-covering activity and an abundance of sideline cash could provide the fuel to drive equities during a seasonal period that favors the bulls.

Bear Market vs. Bull Market

Wednesday, October 5th, 2011

It’s tough to be an optimist these days. Unemployment is high, economic growth is weak, and many leading indicators are pointed in the wrong direction. And that’s just in the United States. Elsewhere, Greece and other European countries are struggling to stay solvent, Japan is facing one crisis after another, and even China’s red-hot economic engine appears to be cooling down. So it’s no wonder the mood on Wall Street is bearish. And it’s no wonder investors are on edge. Market turnarounds can be sudden, and they can be spectacular. And if you abandon the stock market when it’s at or near a bottom, you abandon the opportunity to take advantage of the rebound. Being out of the stock market when a recovery occurs can be costly, as history shows.

Reviewing nine bear markets between 1960 and 2010 (defining a bear market as a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 over at least a two-month period), you’ll see that in nearly every case, the market experienced a strong rally soon after hitting bottom.

Throughout history, bear markets have been buying opportunities. Although we certainly don’t know when market or economic conditions might stabilize, and we’d be foolish to try to pinpoint any potential ‘trough,’ the historical implications are pretty clear.

S&P 500 bear market Decline
(from peak)
One year later
1961–1962 –28.0%
(as of June 26, 1962)
+31.3%
(as of June 27, 1963)
1966 –22.2%
(as of October 8, 1966)
+33.2%
(as of October 9, 1967)
1968–1970 –36.1%
(as of May 26, 1970)
+36.6%
(as of May 27, 1971)
1973–1974 –48.2%
(as of October 3, 1974)
+37.9%
(as of October 3, 1975)
1980–1982 –27.1%
(as of August 11, 1982)
+56.2%
(as of August 12, 1983)
1987 –33.5%
(as of December 4, 1987)
+22.8%
(as of December 5, 1988)
2000–2001 –36.8%
(as of September 19, 2001)
–12.5%
(as of September 20, 2002)
2002 –33.8%
(as of October 9, 2002)
+22.8%
(as of October 10, 2003)
2007–2009 –56.7%
(as of March 9, 2009)
+68.6%
(as of March 9, 2010)

Stocks in Asia ended in the red today, thanks to familiar concerns about the fiscal fate of Europe. Late Tuesday, Moody’s cut Italy’s sovereign debt rating by three notches to A2, with a negative outlook — echoing a similar downgrade from Standard & Poor’s last month.

Conversely, the major European benchmarks are pointed higher at midday. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s office expressed a general lack of surprise at the Moody’s downgrade, and traders seem to share the government’s nonchalance. Instead, stocks are on the upswing after the Financial Times reported that euro-zone finance ministers are working toward a plan to recapitalize financial institutions. “Capital positions of European banks must be reinforced to provide additional safety margins and thus reduce uncertainty,” said Olli Rehn, commissioner of economic and monetary affairs, in a statement to the paper. At last check, the German DAX has jumped 3.4%, the French CAC 40 is up 2.8%, and London’s FTSE 100 is 2.1% higher.

2011 Summer Market Meltdown; DJIA Down 500

Thursday, August 4th, 2011

Stocks plunged sharply Thursday, with the Dow down more than 500 points, in its worst one-day drop since December 2008. All three major averages tumbled into negative territory for the year as investors were rattled over an intensifying global economic slowdown. The S&P 500 sank 60.27 points, or 4.78 percent, to end at 1,200.07. In addition, all three averages fell into “correction territory,” defined by a drop of 10 percent from its peak from its intraday high in Apr. 29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) may have halted its losing streak on Wednesday, but the bears were back with a vengeance today. Ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report, Wall Street was none too impressed with the weekly jobless data from the Labor Department. The discouraging stats sparked an ominous note ahead of the July jobs report, and buyers hit the exits en masse as the session progressed. By the time the bell mercifully sounded, the DJIA found itself more than 500 points south of breakeven, marking its worst single-session drop since Dec. 1, 2008. On the flip side, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX – 31.66) or the Street’s “fear barometer” skyrocketed more than 35% to tag a new 52-week high, marking its heftiest daily percentage gain since early 2007.

When markets are heading south buy Short ETFs and bonds

S&P Marks to keep in mind

6 Month 300 day Moving Average/61.8% retracement- 1220-1225 -BROKEN

2nd support – 1195 -Will it Hit tomorrow and bounce (5 points away)

50% Retracement – 1120-1150 IDEAL AREA TO BUY

May – August 2010 Neckline Low – 1050

10 year 200 day Moving Average/Ultimate Support/50% retracement – 1103

Below 1103 – Double-Dip Recession -Highly unlikely

What is a Market Correction

Secondary trends are short-term changes in price direction within a primary trend. The duration is a few weeks or a few months. One type of secondary market trend is called a market correction. A correction is a short term price decline of 5% to 20% or so. A correction is a downward movement that is not large enough to be a bear market (ex post). Another type of secondary trend is called a bear market rally (sometimes called “sucker’s rally” or “dead cat bounce”) which consist of a market price increase of only 10% or 20% and then the prevailing, bear market trend resumes. Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei 225 has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.

What Is A Short Squeeze In A Stock

Wednesday, August 3rd, 2011

The short ratio (or short interest ratio) for a public company is derived by dividing the number of shares sold short, divided by the average daily trading volume. It is an indicator of the prevailing sentiment the market has for a specific stock and is used by both fundamental and technical traders to identify trends. The short interest ratio can also be calculated for entire exchanges to determine the sentiment of the market as a whole. If an exchange has a high short interest ratio of around five or greater, this can be taken as a bearish signal, and vice versa.

A short squeeze can occur if the price of stock with a high short interest begins to have increased demand and a strong upward trend. To cut losses, short sellers may add to demand by buying shares to cover short postions, causing the share price to further escalate temporarily. Short squeezes are more likely to occur in stocks with small market capitalization and a small public float.

Best Place To Determine A Short Squeeze Candidate: ShortSqueeze.com

If you ever spot a stock that is surging by double digits within a very short time span, you may have run into a stock that is being “short squeezed”. Short squeeze is a term used by investors describing a situation in which stocks get “squeezed” upward rapidly, driven by the short sellers who are covering their short positions.

Short squeezes often result when the price has risen to a point where short sellers decide to cut their losses and get out. This can originate from stocks that have been targeted heavily on the short side with high % of short sellers relative to the % of shares floating. All it takes then is one big news for the demand of the particular stock to surge, disrupting the balance between supply and demand. Often times, this is followed by a series of buying sessions, which drives the short sellers to cover their positions by buying the stock back.

So you can see that identifying the right stocks with potential short squeeze can reward you greatly.  Now how do you go about identifying that?

shortsqueeze.com is your answer.

Short Squeeze dot com is one of the most popular websites for identifying short squeeze opportunities.  It features an array of useful data at no cost but also offers more in depth data with a subscription based service should you need more in depth features.

This is what you get to see when you enter a quote at shortsqueeze.com.

“Short Squeeze Ranking” is the proprietary data that it offers as part of the content.  Taken directly from shortsqueeze.com:

ShortSqueeze.com has developed the Squeeze Ranking™ system used to gauge a stock’s squeeze potential. We use a proprietary algorithm used to rank a stocks potential for either a bullish or bearish stock price move. Squeeze Theory™ is the creation of Dylan Wetherill, the founder of Short Squeeze™. The theory seeks to identify the basic principles that cause a stock to experience a short squeeze (bullish) or a long squeeze (bearish).   For example, a Squeeze Ranking™ of 0 is neutral, with unlimited up or down values to mark bullishness or bearishness. A Squeeze Ranking™ of 2,000 would be more bullish than a Squeeze Ranking™ of 50. Conversely, a negative Squeeze Ranking™ of -3,000 would be much more bearish than a Squeeze Ranking™ of -50. As a Short Squeeze™ member you are able to search all stocks and find stocks with the highest Squeeze Rankings™: short squeeze (bullish) and long squeeze (bearish). The process Squeeze Ranking™ system is designed according to the principles of Squeeze Theory™.

Whether you sign up for their monthly service or not is up to you.  However, you must check out the site and understand just how useful its data can be.

S&P Violates 200 MA 2nd Day

Tuesday, August 2nd, 2011

Markets have been more turbulent in recent months as debt crises in both the US and the euro zone threatened to damage growth here and abroad. Treasury market is telling you that the economy is in recession with 10 T-Bills registering at 2.71. Politicians are not reducing the problems in the US or Europe, just putting on a band aid and postponing the problems endlessly and “Kicking the Can down the Road”. One warning to take heed is that the International Banks are reporting results below estimates and are still vulnerable to sovereign debt of weak countries. Food price inflation is alse more of a problem in emerging markets than in the developed world as food is typically a much bigger part of annual spend in poorer countries.

Today marked a second day that the S&P violated the 200 day MA. Yesterday’s price action was a full 360 that included a 3% swing in the indices. The VIX or volatility factor remains high above $20. It looks as if markets will continue the chaotic price swings which may be beneficial for day traders.

Folk’s we will eventually break down further to the 1220 range in the S&P if we can’t hold 1285.

Weak 2nd Quarter GDP Reading Adds Market Woes

Friday, July 29th, 2011

The U.S. economy grew less than expected in the second quarter as consumer spending barely rose, and growth braked sharply in the prior quarter, a government report showed on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 105 points, or 0.9%. The selling had been worse, with the blue chip index shedding as much as 156 points earlier in the session.

The government said the U.S. economy grew at a 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter, up from a revised 0.4% rate in the previous three months. That was far worse than expected. Investors were already unnerved after House Speaker John Boehner delayed a vote late Thursday on his plan to raise the debt ceiling. The Republican leadership has informed its members that the House will be in session this weekend. But even if Boehner’s plan does pass the House, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has promised the Democratic-controlled Senate will block it, and President Obama has threatened a veto.

In addition, fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 2.3 percent pace from 3.1 percent, indicating that the economy had already started slowing before the high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan hit. Economists had expected the economy would show signs of perking up by now with Japan supply constraints easing and gasoline prices off their high, but data has disappointed. This and the sharp downward revisions to the prior quarters suggest a more troubling and fundamental slowdown might be underway.

Data released on Friday showed the 2007-2009 recession was much more severe than prior measures had found, with economic output declining a cumulative of 5.1 percent instead of 4.1 percent. The annual revisions of U.S. GDP data from the Commerce Department showed the economy contracted at an annual average rate of 0.3 percent between 2007 and 2010. Output over that stretch had previously been estimated to have been flat. The economy needs to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent or better on a sustained basis to chip away at the nation’s 9.2 percent unemployment rate.

In other economic data, the Chicago purchasing managers index fell to a reading of 58.8 in July. Economists had expected a reading fo 58.0.

S&P Update – Should One Enter Markets To Invest

Update to my May 23rd Report here

Markets have been up and down in such volatile fashion. Trading gains at times have been washed out in all directions. We’ll have a massive 4% gain in the S&P in four days to have it all returned the subsequent 5 days.  It has been an absolutely tough trading environment. The VIX has been trading in a tight range between $22 to $15.25 range. The volatility index as of yesterday is implying a confirmed negative for the markets. With the with GDP reading and Goldman Sachs revision of the 2011 GDP, I think analysts have been hoping for a 2ndhalf turn around. I think once production in Japan is fully back online in Q3, we may a positive read in Q4, though weaker than original estimates which subsequently opens the door for further quantitative easing aka QE3.

My suggestionas I’ve been indicating since May is to stay cash until all the political wrangling subsides. Too much market noise.

Next levels to watch are the following:

200 Day Moving Average: 1280 - Target hit this morning 7/29/11 and quickly bounced in early morning- Good Sign. We may have a relief rally first week of August since indicators are suggesting we’re oversold.

300 Day Moving Average: 1220-1225 range – This would mark the November 4, 2010 resistance and 50% retracement. I don’t anticipate markets to fall off this cliff. If we do, then we’re clearly heading to a subsequent Double-Dip recession. I find that hard to imagine entering one just yet.

S&P Holds 1260; Is This A Head Fake

Monday, June 27th, 2011

The indices added an average of 1.05% on breadth that was just shy of 2:1 to the positive. Most notably, the S&P held the 1260 mark or the significant 200 day moving average. Since that moving average represents the tipping point for many technicians between a bull and a bear market, stocks’ continued refusal to break below it considered by those technicians as a bullish development. Is the rotation to end of quarter window dressing? That is a practice in which money managers buy additional shares of their winning stocks into quarter’s end, in an attempt to improve the appearance of their quarterly statements sent to clients. Each major sector advanced, but it was tech, financials and consumer discretionary that led to the upside. All in all, it was a solid day for the bulls, but again, there’s little reason to think that what we saw was anything more than a technical reaction after three days of losses pushed the market back towards recent lows. We’ll see if some end-of-quarter positioning holiday-style trading can act as a tailwind here and help the market take some initial steps at repairing recent damage, but so far, there’s been no reason to think that a bottom is in. The uptrend by the Bulls is to continue, but for how long?

The big news to watch for this week will be the votes in the Grecian Parliament on Wednesday and Thursday, the outcome of the stalemate between the White House and Congress over deficit reduction and several significant economic reports sprinkled throughout the week for housing, consumer confidence, unemployment and manufacturing.

Tuesday: April Case/Shiller Housing Report, June Consumer Confidence

Wednesday: May Pending Home Sales

Thursday: Initial Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims

Friday: June Consumer Sentiment, June ISM, May Construction Spending, June Motor Vehicle Sales

These news could generate catalysts that drive money out of bonds and back into the stock market.

Read S&P Technical Marks here

Yandex To Debut This Morning

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

Russia’s Google Yandex (NASDAQ:YNDK) set to trade for the first time within minutes!!! According to a report released by WalStreet Journal

Shares of Russian search engine Yandex NV will begin trading Tuesday after its initial public offering was priced Monday night at $25 a share, above its expected range. The company sold 52.2 million Class A shares, raising a total of $1.3 billion. Yandex had originally set its expected price range at $20 to $22. The stock will trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol YNDX

Yandex, the largest Russian Internet company by revenue, is also its most popular search engine, generating 65% of all search traffic in a country that isn’t dominated by Google Inc. he company also operates in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Consumer Internet companies both public and private have been drawing buzz in the U.S., especially in the wake of LinkedIn Inc.’s initial public offering last week, during which its shares doubled on the first day, the second-highest IPO performance of the year. That stock closed down 5% for the day Monday

Though Yandex isn’t in the same social media sector as LinkedIn, its dominance in a high-growth region for Internet users is attractive to investors.

I anticipate the exuberance to carry over into Yandex.

A little research on Yandek here

Market Correction Has Started; Set To Be A Volatile Summer

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

The DJIA 12,381.26 swallowed a loss of 130.8 points, or about 1.1%, to end south of the 12,400 level for the first time since April 19. What’s more troubling is that the blue-chip barometer finished beneath its 50-day moving average for the first time since March 22. This suggests a correction is in progress, thus all risk off. We shouldn’t see a massive correction, though market looks set to be choppy for the next several months. The S&P 500 Index or SPX 1,317.37 dropped 15.9 points, or 1.2%, to settle atop 100 day moving average for the first time since March 17.

Stocks spent the session swimming in red ink today, as heightened fears about the fiscal health of Europe weighed on stocks around the globe. In addition to downgrade drama plaguing Greece and Italy, traders fretted over potential austerity-related protests in debt-strapped Spain, as well as weaker-than-expected economic data out of Germany. Elsewhere, a ho-hum manufacturing report from China only exacerbated concerns of a speed bump in the global economic recovery. As a result, crude oil futures fell victim to a strengthening greenback, while gold futures defied the rising dollar as traders sought safety in tangible assets. Against this backdrop, all three major market indexes kicked off a historically rough week on the south side of break-even, while the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) settled atop its 50-day moving average for only the second time since late March.

By the close, July-dated oil futures gave up $2.40, or 2.4%, to end at $97.70 an ounce. Meanwhile, front-month gasoline futures ended fractionally higher thanks to the shutdown of a unit at a Canadian refinery, while the front-month natural gas contract added 2.7% on forecasts for a heat wave across Texas and the Southeast. Gold futures, meanwhile, ended in the black, as debt worries in the euro zone amplified the malleable metal’s safe-haven appeal. Despite a strengthening dollar; gold for June delivery advanced $6.50, or 0.4%, to settle near a two-week high of $1,515.40 an ounce. On the other hand, July-dated silver futures finished a wishy-washy session with a loss of 18 cents, or 0.5%, to end at $34.90 an ounce.

Markets may have to correct and trade sideways through the summer until Japan the number 3 economy in the world, rebuilds after it catastrophic earthquake and regains it’s economic footing escaping it’s current recession. Until then trade with caution!!!

Next levels to watch are the following:

Firm Break above 1355 continues Bull Trend

50 day Moving Average  - 1323 NOW BROKEN

100 day Moving Average – 1313 SITTING ON TOP OF 100 MOVING AVERAGE —> NEXT TARGET IS LEVEL 3

Level 3 danger “Trend Line” – 1260 HITTING THIS LEVEL WILL MARK A 7.5% CORRECTION FROM MAY 2ND CLOSE OF 1361

200 Day Moving Average “Buy on the Dip Level”- 1234

Was Today’s Action Beginning Of A Bounce

Tuesday, May 17th, 2011

Was Today’s Action Beginning Of A Bounce?

The DJIA 12,479.58 trimmed its triple-digit deficit in afternoon trading, but still ended on a loss of 68.8 points, or 0.6%, to settle south of 12,500 for the first time since April 25. We have been down trending pattern since May 2nd. The SPX 1,328.98 also chipped away at its intraday deficit in late-session trading, giving up just 0.5 point, or 0.04%, by the close. Helping the broad-market barometer climb out of the doldrums was its 10-week moving average, which hasn’t been compromised on a weekly closing basis since mid-March. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF  (SPY) cut through an uptrend line and its 50-day moving average, before reversing above it. This type of bounce usually lasts a few days as we were very oversold.

With no early economic reports in sight, U.S. markets Wednesday will keep their focus on Europe and the interplay between stocks, commodities and currencies. Stocks could also continue the bounce that began Tuesday afternoon. We’re oversold and got a bounce off the 50 day moving average. Now I think we have resistance overhead in the 12,600, 12,700 area on the Dow. I don’t think this bounce is going to take us to new highs. We may have an up day. If I was going to draw anything from this, currencies are suggesting that the dollar has possibly topped and the euro may be in the process of bottoming. It looks like the Europeans are proceeding along with the “re-profiling” or a mini restructuring of Greek debt. The Fed’s 2:15 p.m. release of its last FOMC minutes will also be an important factor, as investors look to see what type of discussion the Fed had about its strategy to exit its extraordinary policies and also how it discussed the economy and inflation. Oil inventory data is scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

S&P 500 Technicals

The S&P 500 are testing the 50-day moving average, and a break lower would raise the flag to a potential trend shift.  The S&P’s 50-day moving average, currently 1,323, is the level to track.All told, the S&P has dropped to a significant technical test against the backdrop of lackluster sector leadership. The bull case gets the benefit of the doubt barely but it’s ultimately the S&P’s response to the 50-day moving average that should set the intermediate-term technical tone. We just may get this bounce off the 50!

Next levels to watch are the following:

Firm Break above 1355 continues Bull Trend

50 day Moving Average  - 1323

100 day Moving Average – 1310

Level 3 danger “Trend Line” – 1260

200 Day Moving Average “Buy on the Dip Level”- 1234