Posts Tagged ‘August’

Worst August In 10 Years

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

August was an extremely volatile month for stocks. The market took multiple sharp nosedives following the S&P’s downgrade of U.S.’s credit rating, ongoing European jitters and renewed fears over a global recession. Meanwhile, investors swooping in to take advantage of beaten-down sectors in addition to a handful of strong economic news helped pare some of the losses throughout the month. Still, the gains were not enough to put stocks on firm footing. In all, stocks fell sharply for the month. The Dow lost 4.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 5.7% and 6.4%, respectively. The Dow has had 16 triple-digit moves during August. The major averages also logged their worst August in 10 years. Stocks finished higher in volatile trading Wednesday to mark a four-day rally, but despite the recent gains, all three major indexes still logged their worst month since last May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded in volatile trading to finish in the black for the year.

MAJOR U.S. INDEXES
Last Today’s % Change 1 Week % Change MTD % Change YTD % Change
Dow 11613.53 0.46% 2.92% -4.36% 0.31%
NASDAQ 2579.46 0.13% 4.02% -6.42% -2.77%
S&P 500 1218.89 0.49% 3.58% -5.68% -3.08%
Russell 2000 726.81 -0.18% 5.06% -8.81% -7.25%
CBOE VIX 31.62 -3.86% -11.15% 25.23% 78.14%

A healthy surge in private-sector payrolls sparked optimism ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated employment report, and solid data on the manufacturing front also fueled the early fire. However, Uncle Sam’s attempts to halt AT&T’s (T) planned takeover of T-Mobile USA threw a wrench in the bullish momentum, even sending stocks south of breakeven in afternoon trading. Nevertheless, an eleventh-hour rebound helped the major market indexes back into the black, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) even edging higher for the year. After trading north of 11,700 for the first time since Aug. 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,613.53) trimmed its lead to 53.6 points, or 0.5%, by the close. What’s more, the blue-chip barometer ended atop the 11,600 level for the first time in four weeks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,218.89) also ended off its intraday acme, but still tacked on nearly 6 points, or 0.5%, by the time the dust settled. For the month, the broad-market barometer surrendered 5.7% — its sixth-worst August in 30 years.

September Trading

Investors looking for a bounce after a brutal four-month run in the stock market might get it in September, but not without a strong level of volatility. The focus will now be on whether there will be a policy response but rather the debate centers around what form QE, duration shifts or a cut in rate received on excess reserves  and when. Typically Wall Street’s worst month, this September comes after a 10 percent decline in the major averages from their early May highs—a technical correction in market parlance—amid a torrent of worrying economic signs, bitter battles in Washington and threats from European debt. With signs the sell-off may be taking a respite, the historic 0.5 percent average decline may not hold this time around, as a late-August rally sets the stage for a rebound as well as a roller-coaster investing environment. A counter-trend rally may be in the making, but it could be short-lived from the perspective of magnitude or duration.

Another factor seems to be in play regarding volatility, namely the uncertainty behind what the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. Many cite renewed belief that the central bank is ready to step to the plate with another round of quantitative easing-QE3, as it is called, or the buying of assets in an attempt to generate risk-taking in the capital markets. Counting on the Fed and Chairman Ben Bernanke to come through with more intervention is an admittedly risky bet, but some are willing to use it as an excuse to ride at least a near-term rally during a usually ugly September.

Gold & Silver Outshines The Markets In August

Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

U.S. stocks finished a lackluster session little changed on Tuesday but finished the month with their worst August performance since 2001 as concerns about the economy continued to pile on. The DJIA closed on Tuesday to end at 10,014.72.  Stocks still posted steep losses for the month as investors lowered their expectations for economic growth in response to a flood of weak data in August. The Dow shed 4.3% this month, its first down August in five years and the blue-chip measure’s worst August since 2001. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ also posted their worst August performance since 2001, down 4.7% and 6.2% respectively. Small-capitalization stocks, seen as leading indicator of the economy, have taken an even bigger hit this month. Amazingly to the unfortunate, the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks posted its worst August performance in 12 years.

Indices and stocks weren’t the only losers. Natural-gas futures, wrapping up their worst month in more than two years, are entering the historically weak month of September dogged by confusion over production. Prices for the most active contract have lost nearly 23% in August, as investors sold off the futures on estimates of abundant gas output.

Oil too has its share of losses for the month. October delivery ended down 3.7% at $71.92 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, with declines accelerating toward the close of the session. Oil finished the month of August with a loss, down 8.9%, its first monthly decline since May. The month started well, with prices surpassing $82 a barrel, but soon got derailed as key reports showed the bad times were far from over.

And now onto our winner for the month (honestly the best performer year over year for the last 10 years) the shiny metal we’ve been touting ever since 2001 when President Bush entered 2 wars and lowered the tax rate for the last 9 years – Gold & Silver.

Gold rallied 5.6% in August. That compares to a decrease of 5% in July and is gold’s largest advance since April. Gold futures rose Tuesday, pushing August gains past 5%, and silver hit a three-month high as investors sought out both metals to protect against signs the economic recovery is faltering. Gold for December delivery added $11.10, or 0.9%, to $1,250.30 an ounce. It closed less than 1% from bullion’s record high of $1,266.50 an ounce on June 21.

Silver for December delivery added 36 cents, or 1.9%, to $19.43 an ounce, its highest close since mid-May. Silver has gained nearly 8% in August.

Gold and silver took advantage of investors’ growing concerns about the pace of the anemic economic recovery. Investors have become so optimistic that they’re accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high. As the economy stays weak or gets worse, then investors will be looking for a safe haven.

Buyers accumulated almost 278 tons of gold in 2010 across 10 ETPs, worth $10.4 billion at this year’s average price. Total holdings are almost twice Switzerland’s official reserves of 1,040 tons, data compiled by the World Gold Council show. ETP holdings reached a record 2,078 tons July 19.

One of the biggest buyers has been Soros Fund Management LLC, which oversees about $25 billion. George Soros, who made $1 billion breaking the Bank of England’s defense of the pound in 1992, described gold as “the ultimate asset bubble” at the World Economic Forum’s January meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational,” he said.

Bullion gained 13 percent since January, beating an 8.4 percent return on Treasuries, an 8 percent decline in the MSCI World Index of shares. Investors are concerned the recovery is weakening.

People fear another crisis and so they will diversify into gold. Gold will continue to be the safe haven especially when Bernanke confirmed they’re open to a QE 2.0 (Quantitative Easing, Stimulus) \

Let’s not forget the IMF’s 400 tons of Gold they’re looking to sell. The International Monetary Fund said July 7 China, the second-biggest bullion buyer after India, will expand 10 percent in 2010, compared with 9.1 percent last year. Gold imports by India this year may total 600 tons to 625 tons, compared with an estimated 480 tons to 485 tons last year.

Stocks to Buy

Earnings at Newmont Mining Corp.,(NEM) the largest U.S. gold producer, may increase 47 percent to $1.93 billion in 2010.

Eldorado Gold: (EGO) Shares of EGO closed at $19.31 in the previous trading session and opened today at $19.49. EGO is trading above the 50 day moving average and higher than the 200 day moving average. The stock’s 52 week low is $9.74 and 52 week high is $19.72.

Goldcorp Inc: (GG) Shares of Goldcorp traded 2.2% higher

Barrick Gold: (ABX) are up 2.0% on Tuesday. So far this year, the stock jumped over 17%

Hecla Mining Company: (HL) Up 16% in one week. Over the past 52-weeks, the stock has been trading within the range of $2.85-$7.47. At current market price, the market capitalization of the stock stands at $1.40 billion.

Silver Wheaton Corp (SLW) gained 0.70% to $22.96 on over 2.18 million shares. Today, the stock made its new 52-week high of $23.18. After opening the trade at $22.84, the stock is trading within the range of $22.73-$23.18.

Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS) $24.76; During the quarter ended June 30, 2010 the Company recorded sales of a record $147.3 million, a 32% increase compared to the second quarter of 2009.

We believe Gold will head $2,000 within the next 5-10 years. This will be a long term hold. Any weakness in Gold I recommend buying on the dips.

The remaining of the week prior to the Labor weekend, there is a heavy calendar for economic reports this week, including July employment numbers, manufacturing, productivity, and factory orders. I believe the results will be close to mediocre.