Posts Tagged ‘Australian dollar’

6 Days Left For Debt Ceiling; FXY-Yen Hits New High

Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

House Speaker John Boehner is rewriting his bill to lift the debt ceiling and cut spending after the Congressional Budget Office ruled his plan would have only cut spending by $850 billion over 10 years rather than the $1.2 trillion the Republican sought. The House may end up voting on the bill on Thursday rather than the initially scheduled Wednesday vote. On Tuesday, the head of Keidanren, Japan’s biggest business lobby, called for joint Group of Seven intervention to stem the yen’s gains as it heads back towards the record high of 76.25 hit days after the March 11 earthquake. The Australian dollar traded at $1.1041 after the data, just off a fresh high of $1.1062 — its highest level since it was floated in 1983.

“We promised that we will cut spending more than we increase the debt limit — with no tax hikes — and we will keep that promise,” Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said. Boehner’s plan — and a competing Democratic bill in the Senate  are are the only live bills this week that would increase the debt ceiling by Aug. 2. The CBO said the bulk of deficit savings under Boehner’s original bill — $710 billion — would result from caps on discretionary spending. The other big chunk of savings — $136 billion — would come from reduced interest costs on the debt. Almost as soon as he proposed it on Monday, the bill came under fire from the most conservative members of his caucus and some conservative groups for not going far enough to reflect the principles of the Cut, Cap and Balance Act, which the House passed last week. Cut, Cap and Balance would, among other things, cut total spending by $111 billion for fiscal year 2012. It would also require a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution that would cap total annual spending at 18%. The spending caps in Boehner’s bill would result in small savings in the early years, but the savings would grow over time. In addition, the Boehner bill would require that both chambers of Congress vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment but doesn’t require that one be enacted.

Boehner is in a tough spot. He recognizes that the debt limit must be raised to prevent the country from defaulting on its obligations. But he is also representing the will of his most conservative members, who have not yielded in their demands for large, immediate spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt ceiling. That has put him at odds with Obama, who has pushed for a debt reduction package that also includes a revenue component.

Japan

Japan’s policymakers, alarmed that the yen’s persistent climb could derail the nation’s economic recovery, see solo market intervention as an increasingly viable option. The yen scaled four-month highs against the dollar on the back of market fears of a U.S. government debt downgrade, prompting warnings from Japanese officials and executives that an unchecked yen rise was hurting the export-reliant economy. Markets are virtually ruling out a repeat of the coordinated intervention that the G7 carried out in the quake’s aftermath, but investors are gearing up for a possible solo Tokyo act, primed by official warnings.

Growing market worries about the possibility of a U.S. debt default, coupled with Europe’s debt problems, have been fuelling the yen’s gains as investors seek the relative safety of Japan’s currency. That clouds the outlook for Japan’s economy, which is just emerging from the post-disaster slump and is relying on its exports to reignite growth. But with the currency mainly driven by overseas developments beyond Japan’s control, some market players are skeptical whether Tokyo would risk acting alone, especially given uncertainty about the outcome of U.S. debt talks ahead of an Aug. 2 deadline. Some policymakers share such concerns, but others say the prominence of external factors in the yen’s rise is no excuse to hold off on intervention, and worry that Japan’s economy is still too weak to withstand the pain from yen gains. The yen’s climb also puts pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy further in the hope of pushing down bond yields and reining in the currency. Japan last intervened on its own in September 2010, its first market foray in six years. The BOJ eased monetary policy in combination with both the latest solo and coordinated interventions.

Australia

Australia’s most recent quarterly consumer price index inflation reading exceeded economist forecasts, data out Wednesday showed, propelling the Australian dollar to a fresh record high. Second-quarter consumer price index inflation hit 0.9%, compared to a rise of 1.6% in the March quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported. The CPI reading exceeded the 0.8% reading that economists had expected. Fruit prices jumped 26.9% while gasoline prices climbed 4% in the quarter, the ABS said. CPI rose 3.6% on an annual basis, up from a rise of 3.3% recorded for the March quarter. The Australian dollar traded at $1.1041 after the data, just off a fresh high of $1.1062 — its highest level since it was floated in 1983.

Australian stocks extended early losses immediately after the data, with the S&P/ASX 200 index trading down 0.4%, as investors tried to assess the likelihood of another interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank has a mandate to contain inflation. The RBA has been on hold since last November, with its current cash rate at 4.75%. It meets next week to decide on interest rates.

The US Dollar Is Catching A Beating

Wednesday, April 20th, 2011

Currencies and equities are sharply higher this morning in what should be a very good day in the financial markets. The U.S. dollar is getting decimated and as a result, commodities and high yielding currencies have benefitted significantly. Gold took out resistance, rising to a record high above $1500 while the euro climbed to a fresh 16 month high. The Australian dollar also made a new record above 1.06 while the New Zealand dollar came within a whisker of its 3 year high against the greenback. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. dollar has struggled to find buyers. Weak U.S. growth combined with the Federal Reserve’s relaxed attitude towards monetary tightening kept interest rate differentials in favor of the euro, Aussie and other currencies. Cap that off with the credit quality concerns raised by Standard & Poor’s and there is very little reason for investors to hold let alone buy U.S. dollars. China and PIMCO are only two of the high profile and deep pocketed investors that have openly talked about their concerns about dollar denominated assets – we suspect there are many more who are diversifying silently.

Yet there is a good reason why we have not heard a peep from U.S. policymakers about the aggressive sell-off in the dollar. A weak currency promotes recovery and with no room to move on interest rates and a massive asset purchase program, the Federal Reserve could use any help that they can get. Normally central banks are worried about the inflationary effects of a weak currency but in the U.S. inflation is muted because weak demand has prevented producers from passing on their costs to consumers. Prices at the pump will rise but we are seeing this offset by discounting and lower prices elsewhere.

There are only 3 possible ways for the dollar to reverse its trend -

  1. The Federal Reserve starts expressing concern about inflation and shows willingness to unwind emergency stimulus
  2. The European Central Bank calls the move in the euro brutal, leading investors to believe that they are thinking about intervention
  3. There is an exogenous shock that triggers a fresh wave of deleveraging and risk aversion that sends investors back into the arms of the low yielding U.S. dollar

Markets Flat After CPI, Jobless, & Other Key Data

Thursday, October 14th, 2010

The DJIA opened flat after the government reported jobless claims rose to 462,000 last week, while the Producer Price Index rose 0.4 percent, dampening prospects for a rally driven by a rise in global commodities and commodity-related stocks and a decline in the dollar. 

Weekly jobless claims rose 13,000 for the week ending Oct. 9 to 462,000, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Analysts had expected a rise of only 5,000 claims, according to  Briefing.com. Continuing claims fell to 4.4 million from 4.5 million.

The overall producer price index rose 0.4 percent in September, while core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1 percent. The rise was more than expected by economists polled by Reuters, who expected overall prices to rise 0.2 percent.  At the same time, record-high imports from China helped push the U.S. trade deficit wider in August, while rising food and energy prices pushed inflation at the wholesale level up twice as fast as expected last month.

Also reported was the August trade deficit, which widened significantly to $46.35 billion, up from 42.58 billion in July. It seems as if we’re getting moves in pricing without any signs of a parallel move in wages, our employment market is just stuck. 

The dollar index DXY 76.555 // hit a low for the year, pushed down by Singapore widening its trading band. The greenback was also close to parity with the Australian dollar and the euro crossed 1.40 against the U.S. currency, where it has not been since Jan. 28. The markets are telling us something when I stated back in February to buy Canadian dollars and the Aussie Dollar. Today we have reached parity. A sure sign to tell what’s next. Gold & silver continues to make all time highs.

To support my claims that I made on forclosures going up on April 7th. The end is no where in site. The discouraging data comes as attorneys general in all 50 states Wednesday agreed to join forces in an investigation into whether banks and other lenders have used false signatures and documents to justify foreclosures.  Lenders seized more U.S. homes this summer than in any three-month stretch since the housing market began to bust in 2006. But many of the foreclosures may be challenged in court later because of allegations that banks evicted people without reading the documents.

A total of 288,345 properties were lost to foreclosure in the July-September quarter, according to data released Thursday by RealtyTrac Inc. That’s up from nearly 270,000 in the second quarter, the previous high point in the firm’s records dating back to 2005. Banks have seized more than 816,000 homes through the first nine months of the year and had been on pace to seize 1.2 million by the end of 2010. But fewer are expected now that several major lenders have suspended foreclosures and sales of repossessed homes until they can sort out the foreclosure-documents mess. The bottom line is not that those properties won’t be repossessed. They simply won’t be repossessed as quickly.

But if the crisis drags on for months and more lenders stop seizing homes, the foreclosure delays could last well into next year. That could have a severe effect on home sales prices. A freeze in foreclosure sales between now and December by a majority of lenders could amount to removing 30 percent of all home sales for that period. You would virtually guarantee that tens of thousands of properties would miss going to market in time for the spring, which is the peak buying season for real estate. Nearly 600,000 bank-owned homes are not yet on the market. We’re simply delaying the inevitable.

Australia Raises Fed Rates Again

Tuesday, April 6th, 2010

Australia’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.25 percent and signaled further increases, dismissing warnings that higher borrowing costs are already eroding consumer spending.  Governor Glenn Stevens boosted the overnight cash rate target from 4 percent, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement in Sydney today.

The Australian currency and bond yields rose after Stevens said the move was a “further step” in returning interest rates to average levels. Today’s decision indicates central bank concerns that inflation and house-price increases will surge without greater monetary restraint, even after retail sales and home construction dropped in February. There’s a good case we’ll see much stronger than normal growth rates with much higher than normal inflation and I think the RBA is aware of that. The Australian dollar jumped to a two-week high against the U.S. currency, trading at 92.25 cents from 91.85 before the decision. Two-year government bonds fell, pushing the yield on the 5.75 percent security maturing in April 2012 up by 12 basis points to 5.07 percent, the highest since October. Stevens said last week that Australian house prices are “getting too high,” signaling he wants to minimize the danger of a housing boom and bust in the aftermath of the U.S. example.

Policy makers from India to China have joined Stevens in withdrawing monetary stimulus this year, seeking to head off asset-price bubbles as the region leads global growth. China has twice ordered banks to increase the share of their assets held in reserve and India increased interest rates last month for the first time in almost two years. Bank Indonesia today kept its reference rate at a record-low 6.5 percent for an eighth meeting.

Mining Boom

Australia has led the world in raising borrowing costs partly in anticipation of a surge in investment on new mines and resources that may spark price pressures. Projects such as the Chevron Corp. led Gorgon natural gas project in Western Australia are planned to meet soaring demand from China, the world’s fastest growing major economy.

Inflation in Australia reached 2.1 percent in the quarter to December, up from 1.3 percent the previous three months, while still inside the central bank’s target range of between 2 percent and 3 percent. A gauge of Australia’s inflation rose in March at five times the pace of the previous month, a report showed last week. Consumer prices advanced 0.5 percent from February, when they climbed 0.1 percent. Today’s decision comes as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s government is due to hold an election within the next 12 months. More than two-thirds of the population own homes, compared with less than 50 percent in some European nations. The previous four increases added about A$200 a month to repayments on an average A$300,000 mortgage.

Group of 20

Stevens was the first G-20 policy maker to raise borrowing costs twice this year. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last month that the world’s biggest economy “continues to require the support of accommodative monetary policies.” The Fed has kept its benchmark rate close to zero since late 2008 and the European Central Bank’s rate is at a record low of 1 percent.

Stevens brushed aside weaker recent figures suggesting a softening of economic growth in the first quarter as government fiscal-stimulus measures wane. Australian home-building approvals fell for a second month in February after the government reduced grants to first-time buyers. Demand for new homes surged in the second half of 2009 after Rudd tripled grants to first-time buyers of new homes to A$21,000 ($19,000). The grants were cut to A$7,000 on Jan. 1. Consumer Spending. Retail sales also unexpectedly tumbled in February, declining by 1.4 percent. Consumer spending accounts for more than half the Australian economy. Stevens’ rate increases have pushed up mortgage rates to about 50 basis points below what policy makers have described as a “normal” level.

Employers boosted the working hours of staff in February by the most since 1998, a sign the job market is poised to strengthen. Companies added 20,000 jobs last month, a report due April 8 may show, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Australia’s unemployment rate was 5.3 percent in February, almost half the level in Europe and the U.S.

Gross domestic product grew 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the most in almost two years.

DJIA, S&P Set to Hit New 52 Week High!!!

Friday, March 12th, 2010

Markets are set to hit a new 52 week high, in thanks to encouraging retail sales. In fact, we could see these highs taken out today, with SPX futures trading nearly 3 points above fair value, and DJIA futures more than 84 points above fair value. What’s more, a sharp rally on Wall Street could send the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) to a fresh multi-year low. The VIX is currently hovering just above the 18 level, and is slightly more than a point away from its lowest levels since May 19, 2008.

Asian stocks closed mixed as China is struggling to strike a monetary policy balance, while European shares were higher as production data from the euro zone showed the region may be in for a stronger-than-expected recovery.

Currency News

Markets are also exuberant because it’s been rumored that China might be forced to inflate the Yuan. US is said to have substantiating facts that China has been manipulating the Yuan, artificially pegged to the dollar. US has threatened to place trade sanctions if actions are not made soon.

The Canadian Dollar just touched a 40 week high of 1.0263. I expect to see parity within the next few months.

The Australian Dollar currently trades $ .91. The Australians have been raising their Fed Fund rates since early 2009. The Ausi $ has appreciated 51% against the dollar within 1 year.

The Euro currently trades $1.3783. It has tumbled 9.27% since Greece announced the austerity measures.