Posts Tagged ‘China’

Did The Central Banks Just Saved The World

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

World markets are massively short covering their positions after an announcement this morning at 8 AM EST, that the coordinated action by central banks around the world will provide more liquidity to the global financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve, after a similar effort in September, will “lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points.” Wednesday’s move from the Fed was matched by corresponding actions from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. The new pricing applies to operations conducted as of Dec. 5, and the authorization of the swap arrangements has been extended to Feb. 13. What does this mean? Does the signal that the financial markets were really beginning to dry up with interbank lending. Was the European debt crisis beginning to unravel for the worse with the German inactions? What does mean to the Dollar? —->Devaluation 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 415 points to 11,970, while the S&P 500 added 42 points to 1,237. The victim of the surge was the dollar, which stumbled on the central banks’ latest move to flood the market with more greenbacks. The euro climbed to $1.3487, from $1.3315 Tuesday. In my opinion policymakers are buying time for the Euro Zone to changes treaties and most likely drastically change the structure of the common currency (and yes, definitely kick a few members out). They also must find a way to rescue the banks and inject additional liquidity similar to the US TARP. The underlining problem remains the monstrous debt held.

While the effort to provide more liquidity may temporarily soothe the symptoms of Europe’s debt crisis and allow financial institutions easier access to funding, it does little to address the underlying roots of overburdened governments that need to be propped up while they drastically cut spending. 

The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) announced new leverage tools geared at increasing its lending capacity on Wednesday, but it still remains to be seen where the additional financing will come from for the public-private special purpose vehicles the EFSF intends to use to provide funding to sovereign governments through primary and secondary bond market purchases. That funding could in turn be used to recapitalize European banks that are at risk of crumbling due to their exposure to the region’s shaky credits. Those concerns took a backseat Wednesday morning though, as equities rallied and bond yields in at-risk countries like Italy and Spain held fairly steady.

China also gave the market a helping hand Wednesday, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for its banks in a bid to jumpstart an economy that has slowed from its torrid pace and fueled concerns about a hard landing that could threaten precarious global growth.

Here’s a statement from the FOMC website.

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity. 

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorized through February 1, 2013.

Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized an extension of the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank through February 1, 2013. The rate on these swap arrangements has been reduced from the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 100 basis points to the OIS rate plus 50 basis points. In addition, as a contingency measure, the Federal Open Market Committee has agreed to establish similar temporary swap arrangements with these five central banks to provide liquidity in any of their currencies if necessary. Further details on the revised arrangements will be available shortly.

U.S. financial institutions currently do not face difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets. However, were conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Action

The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have agreed to extend the US $30 billion swap facility (reciprocal currency arrangement) through 1 February 2013 and adjust the pricing to the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 50 basis points. This swap facility was set to expire on 1 August 2012. The introduction of the expanded network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of Canada, should the need arise, to provide Canadian dollars to the other central banks, and to provide liquidity in Japanese yen, euros, U.K. pounds sterling, Swiss francs and U.S. dollars (via the existing U.S. dollar swap facility) to financial institutions in Canada. The Bank of Canada judges that it is not necessary for it to draw or offer operations on any of these swap facilities at this time, but that it is prudent to have these agreements in place. Should these facilities be drawn on, the details of the liquidity facilities provided would depend on the specific market circumstances at the time. The Bank of Canada continues to closely monitor developments in global financial markets and remains committed to providing liquidity as required to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the functioning of financial markets.

Bank of England Action

The introduction of the network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of England to provide sterling to the other central banks if required, as well as enabling the Bank of England to provide liquidity, should it be needed, in Japanese yen, euro, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in U.S. dollars). The Bank will continue its weekly tenders of U.S. dollar funding at fixed interest rates each Wednesday until further notice, with counterparties able to borrow unlimited amounts against eligible collateral. The rate at which tenders are conducted will be reduced to OIS+50bps (from OIS+100bps) beginning with the next weekly tender on 7 December. The three-month tender scheduled for 7 December and subsequent three-month tenders will also be conducted at OIS+50bps. In the U.S. dollar repo operations, counterparties are permitted to borrow any amount against eligible collateral.

European Central Bank Decision

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in co-operation with other central banks the establishment of a temporary network of reciprocal swap lines.  This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars). The ECB will regularly conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately one week and three months at the new pricing. The schedule for these operations, which will take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, will be published today on the ECB’s website.

In addition, the initial margin for three-month US dollar operations will be reduced from currently 20% to 12% and weekly updates of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be introduced in order to carry out margin calls. Those changes will be effective as of the operations to be conducted on 7 December 2011. Further details about the operations will be made available in the respective modified tender procedure via the ECB’s Website.

Frequently Asked Questions: Foreign Currency Liquidity Swaps

What is the purpose of the foreign currency liquidity swap lines? 

The foreign currency liquidity swap lines are designed to provide the Federal Reserve with the capacity to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions should the Federal Reserve judge that such actions are appropriate.

Which central banks are participating in these arrangements?

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized arrangements between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. In addition, these foreign central banks are also establishing bilateral swap arrangements with one another.

Why are these swap lines being implemented?

These swap lines are being implemented as a contingency measure, so that central banks can offer liquidity in foreign currencies if market conditions warrant such actions. These lines provide the Federal Reserve with the same ability to provide foreign currency, should the need arise, as foreign central banks currently have through the existing dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve to provide dollar liquidity in their jurisdictions.

Why is the Federal Reserve establishing lines for these five currencies and with these five central banks? 

These five currencies are used globally and account for the bulk of the foreign currency funding of U.S. financial institutions.

In what manner would foreign currency liquidity be provided?

There has not been a decision to activate the foreign currency liquidity facilities. If the Federal Reserve were to decide to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions, the details of the operations would be determined at that time in light of the prevailing circumstances.

Will activity under the liquidity swap arrangements be disclosed to the public? 

Yes, the aggregate swap activity in each currency with foreign central banks will be published weekly. They will be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Foreign Exchange Swap Agreement webpage . In addition, any liquidity-supplying operations in foreign currencies would be subject to the same disclosure requirements as the Federal Reserve’s dollar-based activities.

For how long are the swap arrangements expected to be in place?

These swap arrangements, along with the existing U.S. dollar swap arrangements, have been authorized through February 1, 2013.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from May 2010

Why has the Federal Reserve re-established temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities with foreign central banks? 

The swap facilities announced in May 2010 respond to the re-emergence of strains in short term funding markets in Europe. They are designed to improve liquidity conditions in global money markets and to minimize the risk that strains abroad could spread to U.S. markets, by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions.

With which central banks has the Federal Reserve entered into swap facilities? 

The Federal Reserve has established swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

How do the swap facilities function? 

The swap lines with the ECB, BOE, SNB and BOJ provide these central banks with the capacity to conduct tenders of U.S. dollars in their local markets at fixed local rates for full allotment, similar to arrangements that had been in place previously. The swap line with the Bank of Canada allows for drawings of up to $30 billion. The terms, structure, and operational mechanics of these swap agreements closely parallel the arrangements that expired on February 1, 2010.

For how long are the swap facilities expected to be operational? 

These swap arrangements have been authorized through February 1, 2013. Central banks may request drawings on their swap lines up to the date of expiration.

Is the Federal Reserve exposed to foreign exchange or private bank risk in extending these lines? 

No. Dollars provided through the reciprocal currency swaps are provided by the Federal Reserve to foreign central banks, not to the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central bank receiving dollars determines the terms on which it will lend dollars onward to institutions in its jurisdiction, including how the foreign central bank will allocate dollar funds to financial institutions, which institutions are eligible to borrow, and what types of collateral they may borrow against. The terms governing these loans of dollars are in all cases released to the public by the foreign central banks. As the Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship is exclusively with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations, the Federal Reserve does not assume the credit risk associated with lending to financial institutions based in these foreign jurisdictions. The provision of dollars and receipt of foreign currency, and the receipt of dollars and return of foreign currency at the swap’s maturity date, both occur at the same foreign exchange rate so that the Federal Reserve is not exposed to movements in foreign exchange rates.

Is activity under the liquidity swap arrangements disclosed to the public? 

Yes, swap activity is published weekly. The Federal Reserve has also released the underlying legal agreements with foreign central banks.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from December 2007 to February 2010

What was the purpose of the dollar liquidity swap lines?

The dollar liquidity swap lines were designed to improve liquidity conditions in U.S. and foreign financial markets by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions during times of market stress.

What circumstances led to the implementation of these facilities?

The swap arrangements were introduced to address stresses in U.S. dollar funding in overseas markets. These difficulties were adding materially to pressures in funding and credit markets in the United States and abroad.

Who authorized the use of the swaps?

The arrangements were authorized by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System and the policy boards or executives of the respective foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve had the right to approve or deny requests by foreign central banks to draw on their swap lines. The FOMC authorized these arrangements through February 1, 2010. The foreign central banks could request draws on their swap lines up to that date.

Which central banks could engage in swaps?

The Federal Reserve established swap arrangements with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank.

How were the swaps structured?

The Federal Reserve provided U.S. dollars to a foreign central bank. At the same time, the foreign central bank provided the equivalent amount of funds in its currency to the Federal Reserve, based on the market exchange rate at the time of the transaction. The parties agreed to swap back these quantities of their two currencies at a specified date in the future, which was the next day or as far ahead as three months, using the same exchange rate as in the first transaction. Because the terms of this second transaction were set in advance, fluctuations in exchange rates during the interim did not alter the eventual payments. Accordingly, these swap operations carried no exchange rate or other market risks.

How did foreign central banks distribute the U.S. dollar funding they received through these swaps?

The foreign central banks distributed the U.S. dollars they drew through a variety of methods, including variable-rate tenders, fixed-rate tenders, bilateral transactions, and foreign exchange swap tenders against various types of collateral, including both foreign currency and securities denominated in foreign currency. In each case, the arrangement was between the foreign central bank and the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central banks determined the acceptability of the collateral offered and the eligibility of the institutions to participate in the operations they conducted. The terms on which funds were tendered were released to the public by the foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship was with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations.

What revenues and costs arose for the Federal Reserve?

When a foreign central bank drew on its swap line to fund its dollar tender operations, it paid interest to the Federal Reserve in an amount equal to the interest the foreign central bank earned on its tender operations. For its part, the Federal Reserve did not pay interest and committed to hold the foreign currency that it acquired in the swap transaction at the foreign central bank (rather than lending it or investing it in private markets). The structure of the arrangement served to avoid domestic currency reserve management difficulties for foreign central banks that could have arisen if the Federal Reserve had actively invested the foreign currency holdings in the marketplace.

What was the impact of swaps on U.S. monetary operations?

The drawing of U.S. dollars by a foreign central bank resulted in an increase in the level of reserve balances held at the Reserve Banks. Similarly, the repayment of U.S. dollars to the Federal Reserve when a swap was unwound resulted in a drain of these balances.

S&P Is Approaching Top Range

Tuesday, October 11th, 2011

The markets are having another huge rally today. U.S. stocks indexes advanced 3% Monday, their best one-day performance in over six weeks, as France and Germany pledged to do everything necessary to support Europe’s banks, while investors also looked to the start of third-quarter earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA gained 330.06 points, or 2.97%, to 11,433.18, its biggest one-day point and percentage gain since Aug. 11 and just a hair under its session high of 11,433.33. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index SPX added 39.43 points, or 3.4%, to 1,194.89, its best one-day rise since Aug. 23. The bond market is closed today which is allowing the light volume to take over and push the market to crazy levels. In the last week, the S&P 500 has rallied 11% off the lows. This is bringing it into some major resistance points. The rally is being driven by hopes that a bank recapitalization plan will take hold in Europe. At this point it is distracting the markets from Greece, Italy and the rest of the troubled nations facing default. Tomorrow, the bond market opens again. It will be interesting to see what type of action takes place when the cat comes back to the party. It may send the mice scurrying. The rally is broad based with XOM, CVX, GOOG, AAPL and even JPM running higher. Keep an eye on JPM as the leading indicator for the overall market. Stocks soared despite the lack of details on what a European plan might look like. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said they would agree on a plan for the banks and accelerating economic coordination in time for the G-20 meeting in Cannes in early November.

It also does not mean the market will break above its current range, which tops out at about 1250, until more of the uncertainty surrounding Europe and the economy are resolved. I don’t know if today’s action signifies a solving of Europe, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction. The market might be too euphoric, but it’s what we’re focused on.

Earnings

Investors will also be looking ahead to a slew of big-name earnings reports later in the week. Third-quarter results season unofficially gets underway after Tuesday’s close with figures from blue chip Alcoa Inc.

European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF)

Tuesday will thrust tiny euro zone nation Slovakia into the spotlight once again as the nation’s parliament votes on whether to support an expansion of the euro zone’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). The Slovak parliament’s budget and finance committee voted on Monday recommending that the full parliament should back plans to strengthen the EFSF, but the committee’s head said they might have fallen short by one vote in approving the recommendation. The technicality is unlikely to affect a vote by the Slovak parliament today, but the result still hangs in the balance as the ruling right-wing coalition’s junior partner, the Freedom and Solidarity Party (SaS), rejected a compromise offer from Prime Minister Iveta Radicova on Monday. The Slovak parliament will begin debating the EFSF at 12:00 London time, with a vote expected later in the afternoon.

Greece will auction 1 billion euros ($1.343 billion) of six month T-bills on Tuesday as part of its monthly short term debt sales, while outgoing European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet will appear before the European Parliament’s finance committee at 9:30 London time.

In China, stocks opened 2.4 percent higher, following the news that the nation’s sovereign wealth fund would increase its stake in the country’s four largest banks.

Yuan Bill Will Create Trade Wars With China

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

A bill to ensure America remains competitive in the global marketplace by protecting manufacturing jobs is moving forward in the U.S. Senate. Senate Amendment 1619, sponsored by Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and co-sponsored by Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., aims to punish China and other foreign countries for currency manipulation. Experts believe this practice has potentially cost America thousands of good-paying manufacturing jobs. The Chinese government manipulates its currency by keeping the value of the yuan artificially low to reduce the price of its exports. This manipulation gives China an unfair advantage over foreign competitors, meaning American-made goods become comparatively more expensive, leading to job loss in the manufacturing sector. China warned Washington on Tuesday that passage of a bill aimed at forcing Beijing to let its currency rise could lead to a trade war between the world’s top two economies.

The legislation Manchin supports would allow the U.S. to impose tariffs on imports that benefit from foreign government subsidies. Manchin has also cosponsored similar legislation to clarify that the U.S. can charge import taxes on goods that come from countries known to undervalue their currencies. In addition, the trade deficit has grown from $83 billion in 2001 to $273 billion in 2010. According to the Economic Policy Institute, 2.8 million American jobs were displaced because of this growing trade deficit.

Major U.S. industry groups sent an open letter to Senate leaders Wednesday, urging against planned legislation to pressure China into speeding up the appreciation of its currency. In the letter addressed to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the groups said that while they agree on the need for a more flexible dollar-yuan exchange rate, “unilateral legislation on this issue would be counterproductive” and “will not create significant new jobs here at home.” They said such a move could hurt efforts on other fronts, including lobbying for more intellectual property protection in China and greater market access for U.S. firms. They also expressed doubt over whether taking the currency issue to the World Trade Organization would prove successful. The more than 50 signatories included the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Consumer Electronics Association, the National Retail Federation, the Business Roundtable, the U.S. Meat Export Federation, and the Aerospace Industries Association.

China warned Washington on Tuesday that passage of a bill aimed at forcing Beijing to let its currency rise could lead to a trade war between the world’s top two economies. China’s central bank and the ministries of commerce and foreign affairs accused Washington of “politicising” currency issues and putting the global economy at risk after U.S. senators voted on Monday to start a week of debate on the bill. The response suggested China sees a greater risk from the proposed bill than it has in the past when U.S. lawmakers attempted to put forward similar legislation to speed up the pace of appreciation in the yuan, or renminbi.

Tuesday’s coordinated salvo and the central bank’s warning of a trade war and a slowdown in China’s exchange rate reforms indicated Beijing was taking the latest currency bill more seriously. It is very rare for three different ministries of the country to refute something so quickly and strongly, showing how deeply the Chinese government is concerned about the yuan bill.

By using the excuse of a so-called ‘currency imbalance’, this will escalate the exchange rate issue, adopting a protectionist measure that gravely violates WTO rules and seriously upsets Sino-U.S. trade and economic relations. The Chinese could dump US bonds and the US dollar and create a massive vacuum. Something like this video can pan out and create utterless chaos. “The Day the Dollar Died”

Monday’s vote bolsters prospects for the bill to clear the Democrat-run Senate later this week, but prospects for action in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives are murky. If the bill did clear both chambers, it would present President Barack Obama with a tough decision on whether to sign the popular legislation into law and risk a trade war with Beijing, or veto it to pursue a more diplomatic approach.

In Search For A Market Bottom; S&P 1120

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

The bulls took quite a beating yesterday, as an extended post-Fed sell-off and dismal macroeconomic data sparked a mass exit. The DJIA fell 391 points to 10,733.83. Earlier in the session, the DJIA tagged a fresh annual low of 10,597.14 before paring its losses. The S&P dropped 37 points to 1,129.56 bottomed at 1,114.22 before reclaiming some ground. Investors continued to dissect the central bank’s statement of “significant downside risks to the economic outlook,” along with dismal economic reports from both China and Europe sinked stocks further. Federal Reserve’s Operation Twist boosted the US Dollar to multi-month highs, which sent dollar-denominated assets like crude oil and gold down. The DJIA suffered its worst point drop in five weeks, while the Volatility Index (VIX – 41.35) skyrocketed to a one-month high.

Crude futures fell to a six-week low today, as a mad rush for the greenback spooked foreign-currency holders from the dollar-denominated commodity. Furthermore, uninspiring economic data out of both China and Europe weighed on hopes for rebounding demand. Against this backdrop, November-dated crude oil futures gave up $5.41, or 6.3%, to end at $80.51 per barrel. The strengthening greenback also took a toll on precious metals yesterday, as did dismal manufacturing data out of China. By the time the dust settled, December-dated gold futures surrendered $66.40, or 3.7%, to finish at $1,741.70 an ounce. Meanwhile, silver for December delivery fell 9.6% to $36.58 its lowest settlement since July.

S&P (SPX – 1,129.56) – support at 1,100; resistance at 1,400

Markets were oversold yesterday. Today should bring in choppy trading. I expect further selling as momentum has gathered to the southside. I still remain cash with further hedges in short Gold DZZ, Silver SLV hedged with ZSL, and VXX

BRICS – China – Europe “Too Big To Fail”

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

Europe and the markets may make Greece a scape goat and set them as an example to the rest of the peripheral euro-zone nations. For this I’d suggest markets are heading lower. I’d steer away from stocks and seek to remain cash. Greece is Lehman’s Europe. China’s premier, Wen Jiabao, said the country remains ready to help Europe through its current debt crisis, but said Europe must recognize China as a full market economy. Beijing’s strategic interests in the region are a prudent backstopping of its euro-denominated investments. China is also concerned about the impact that an imploding European financial system would have on consumer demand for Chinese-made products. We would not be surprised to see China come in with a much bigger checkbook, perhaps rivaling the size of the stabilization fund itself in an attempt to shore up the European-debt market and preserve an important export hub for themselves.

China’s premier, Wen Jiabao, addressing CEOs and policymakers at the summer World Economic Forum in Dalian, China, Wen said he had told European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on a recent phone call that China was willing to invest more money in the region. But he urged the EU to grant China the status of a full market economy before the World Trade Organization (WTO) does so in 2016. “Recognizing China as a full market economy is a way a friend recognizes a friend,” Wen said. Market economy status would help Chinese products get better treatment in trade disputes with Europe. In his speech, Wen also said that Western countries needed to do more to solve the sovereign debt crisis and to protect foreign investors.

The BRICS major emerging markets are in initial talks about increasing their holdings of euro-denominated bonds in an effort to help ease the euro zone debt crisis, a Brazil government official told Reuters on Tuesday. The talks are still in a “preliminary stage,” said the source, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations were ongoing. The BRICS countries are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The official said any action would not involve “the majority” of countries’ reserves, but did not provide additional details. Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said finance ministers and central bank presidents from the BRICS members would discuss the euro zone crisis at a Sept. 22 meeting in Washington. ”We’re going to meet next week in Washington, and we’re going to talk about what to do to help the European Union get out of this situation,” Mantega told reporters in Brasilia. Before the meeting, Mantega intends to discuss proposals with his BRICS colleagues by telephone, said another Brazilian source with direct knowledge of the issue. Brazilian financial newspaper Valor reported earlier Tuesday that purchases could be limited to debt from the more financially solid European nations. IMF chief Christine Lagarde called the idea of the emerging economies considering euro zone debt purchases an “interesting development.”

Mendez was quoted as saying the first goal is security, second is liquidity and third is return. He said return is not a determinant factor. What will determine investment is security, he said. Seventy-one percent of Brazil reserves are currently in North American securities, and 18 percent are in European. He also noted that the euro currency has recently lost ground but other currencies, like the Australian and Canadian dollars are gaining ground. The central bank is (saying this) based on their analysis of the actual situation, but when you get to the Finance ministry, you are dealing with political issues. They may, if they think the risks are not too great, see support for euro zone debt as being a constructive way for Brazil to build its standing the global economy. Everybody in Brazil, China, & emerging markets in general have an interest in global stability. They want to export. if they think it’s a reasonable process to become involved in selective debt markets more aggressively, as a way to build more stability in the global economic environment, I don’t think it’s an irrational decision, but it’s as political one. Australia accounts for 3 percent of Brazil’s reserves, and Japan, 1 percent. Ninety-seven percent of Brazilian reserves are allocated triple-A securities, and 3 percent double-A.

Markets Riding Hope, High On China Bailout Of Italy

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

Markets rallied late yesterday from a deficit of 120 points in the DJIA to postive 68 points on rumor that Italy is in discussions with China for funding. Italian government has held talks last two weeks with the Chinese sovereign wealth fund about investing in its debt-laden economy spurred a stock market rally and a boost to the euro Monday. As the European markets opened for business on Tuesday, doubts were being cast on whether China would want to invest more of its wealth in Italy. Tremonti had met Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds and representatives of Italian Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, a state-controlled entity which runs a 4 billion euros ($5.43 billion) Italian Strategic Fund open to foreign investors, last week. China Investment Corp has so far declined to comment on the report. China has yet to confirm the rumor.

Italy is struggling with a high debt-to-GDP ratio, second only to Greece in the euro zone. Its debt totals around 1.9 trillion euros. The government is currently debating a crucial 54 billion austerity package and considering the sale of some of its stakes in Italian companies. While peripheral euro zone economies such as Greece and Portugal are viewed as small enough to be bailed out, Italy is the euro zone’s third-largest economy. The reality is there’s not enough money to bail out Italy, therefore Italy is vulnerable. The deficit-cutting measures are expected to be approved by parliament this week but there are widespread fears they could further slow Italy’s already fragile growth. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi promised on Monday that the 54 billion euro package of measures would be approved quickly and without further changes, seeking to calm fears that Italy had lost the will to push through the unpopular plan.

Yields on Italian five year bonds hit their highest level since the introduction of the euro a decade ago after an auction on Tuesday which underlined mounting fears over the currency bloc’s third largest economy. Italy has been dependent on support from the European Central Bank to keep a lid on its borrowing costs for over a month but a surge in bond yields over the past week suggests that financial market sentiment has turned against Rome. The Treasury sold a total of 6.485 billion euros worth of fixed-rate BTP bonds, just under its maximum target of 7 billion euros, but was forced to pay a record yield of 5.60 percent on nearly 4 billion euros of five year paper. The euro fell against the dollar after the results, which did nothing to allay concerns that the euro zone’s crisis is still deepening and could spur another banking crisis.

China has concerns about the euro zone, so do you really think they will start buying peripherals and debt at the moment? Second, Italy is the biggest market in Southern Europe, so you can’t expect it (Chinese intervention) to have the same impact as it would in Portugal or Greece. And finally, why would you expect China to start ploughing into Italy when Germany or Switzerland have little or no interest in buying in? The Chinese took part in the Portugal bond auctions earlier this year, and may have had their fingers burned as Portuguese bonds have fallen further since then.

S&P Now Negative For The Year

Tuesday, August 2nd, 2011

Regardless of an eleventh-hour debt deal in Washington, D.C., the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended lower for the eighth straight session today, extending its longest losing streak since October 2008. While Uncle Sam may have narrowly avoided a default, the freshly inked legislation failed to curb concerns about a potential credit-rating downgrade. Earlier in the morning, economic data only fueled the bearish selling, with reports on personal incomes and spending exacerbating fears about the health of the economy. Specifically, the Commerce Department said consumers unexpectedly tightened their purse strings for the first time in nearly two years in June, while incomes rose by the smallest amount this calendar year. The DJIA swallowed a loss of almost 266 points by the time the bell sounded, settled at a session low, giving up 265.9 points, or 2.2%, to end beneath its 200-day moving average for the first time since September 2010. In addition, the blue-chip barometer gave up its perch atop the 12,000 level for the first time since late June. S&P 500 Index -SPX – 1,254.05 extended its retreat as the session progressed, finishing with a loss of 32.9 points, or 2.6%. Like the Dow, the SPX ended south of its 200-day trendline for the first time since September 2010. This is clearly a negative for long term holders.

Deep Correction To Continue First announced May 23rd, 2011 here

Where should one invest during a Market Correction. Read here for a list short based ETF’s

US Triple-A Rating In Question

Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday confirmed its triple-A rating of the United States, citing the decision to raise the debt limit, but kept the pressure on the government to move toward a long-term fiscal consolidation plan. The ratings agency affirmed the United States’ triple-A rating after congressional lawmakers agreed to raise the country’s debt ceiling which will allow the Treasury to keep servicing U.S. debt obligations. It assigned a negative outlook on the rating, however, in a sign that a downgrade is still possible in the next 12 to 18 months. In a statement, Moody’s said there would be a risk of a downgrade if “(1) There is a weakening in fiscal discipline in the coming year; (2) If further fiscal consolidation measures are not adopted in 2013; (3) If the economic outlook deteriorates significantly; or (4) There is an appreciable rise in the US government’s funding costs over and above what is currently expected.” Earlier, Fitch also backed its triple-A rating on the U.S. but said that could change if “fundamental weakness” in the economy isn’t addressed and said the U.S. rating ”will remain under pressure” for some time.

Chinese credit-rating agency Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. again downgraded U.S. sovereign debt Wednesday and warned of further downgrades, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported. Dagong cut U.S. Treasurys to A from A+, with a negative outlook, saying growth in U.S. debt is still outpacing revenue growth. The latest move followed a Dongang downgrade of U.S. debt from AA to A+ in November, citing the launch of the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing. “The agency said the approval to raise the debt ceiling indicated that there will not be any positive changes in factors that will influence the country’s debt-paying ability in the long run,” Xinhua reported

Room To Raise Revenue By 2013?

Since the debt-cutting deal was a down-payment to our debt and clearly  spending cuts not excessive, will this open the door to consider new revenue streams? Geithner said that the Republican leadership is still open to considering new revenue streams. “Leading Republicans have begun talking about tax reforms that will raise revenue and help reduce the deficit. Democrats recognize that we have to find savings to preserve programs for the elderly, the middle class and the poor, and to create room to help rebuild the economy,” he said, according to an advance copy of the editorial provided by the Treasury Department. While staunch opposition from fiscally conservative Republicans kept any tax hikes out of the debt deal signed into law Tuesday, Geithner appeared to signal that the expiration of the Bush tax cuts at the end of 2012 could be used as leverage to force reforms to revenue.

Geithner also sought to reassure those concerned that the current austerity cuts will lead to heavy economic pain. “The near-term cuts in spending will not materially add to the pressures on the economy,” he said. Geithner cited a Macroeconomic Advisors estimate that the “direct effects” would be “about one-tenth of one percentage point of annual gross domestic product growth, far less than the damage that would have been caused by a prolonged impasse, by adopting the budget proposed by Republicans or, certainly, by default.” But he also urged more action be taken in Washington to boost the economy, saying that “lawmakers should return in September prepared to act to strengthen the economy and get more Americans back to work.”

S&P Marks to keep in mind

6 Month 300 day Moving Average/61.8% retracement- 1220-1225

2nd support – 1195

10 year 200 day Moving Average/Ultimate Support/50% retracement – 1103

Below 1103 – Double-Dip Recession -Highly unlikely

Largest Rare-Earth Metal Mine In US Is Open

Tuesday, June 21st, 2011

Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE:MCP) announced that it has secured the final funds necessary for the capital build-out of its estimated $781 million expansion and modernization project at its flagship rare-earth oxides facility at Mountain Pass, California. The first phase of its mining project is expected to be operational by next year. When completed, the mine will be the first time in a decade that rare-earth oxides are being produced in the United States, which once lead the world in such production. The alloys and magnets that are produced from the rare-earth metals are needed for a range of today’s emerging high-tech and electronic systems and devices, from wind turbines to computer batteries to smartphones to hybrid and electric cars. Today, 95% of the rare-earth metals needed for today’s technologies are extracted in China.

When Phase 1 of the project is completed, expected to occur next year, Molycorp says its manufacturing assets will comprise the world’s first fully integrated rare earth manufacturing supply chain, producing high-purity rare earth oxides, metals, alloys, and neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets, widely used in transportation, high tech, clean energy, defense, and other industries. The re-opening of the site, closed in 2002, offers a  hedge against China’s dominance of the world’s supply of rare-earth metals. Worldwide demand for the elements reached 125,000 tons in 2010, and is expected to grow to 225,000 tons by 2015.

According to a report in The Economist, cheap labor in China ate into the profitability of the Mountain Pass site a decade ago:

“A decade ago America was the world’s largest producer of rare-earth metals. But its huge open-cast mine at Mountain Pass, California, closed in 2002—a victim mainly of China’s drastically lower labor costs. Today, China produces 95% of the world’s supply of rare-earth metals, and has started limiting exports to keep the country’s own high-tech industries supplied.”

The rare-earth element of greatest value is is neodymium, the key ingredient of super-strong permanent magnets: “Over the past year the price of neodymium has quadrupled as electric motors that use permanent magnets instead of electromagnetic windings have gained even wider acceptance,” according to The Economist. Cheaper, smaller and more powerful, permanent-magnet motors and generators have made modern wind turbines and electric vehicles viable.” The Economist adds, however, that not all electric car makers seek rare earth metals, including the Tesla Roadster, the BMW Mini-E, or AC Propulsion. “The latest carmaker to seek a rare-earth alternative is Toyota. The world’s largest carmaker is reported to be developing a neodymium-free electric motor for its expanding range of hybrid cars.”

Molycorp, research by Dahlman Rose, one of the research firms that has been most bullish on the stock, has a target on the shares to $120 to reflect potential dilution attributable to the company’s recent issue of $230 million in convertible debt. Dahlman Rose said it still views Molycorp as the best way to participate in the rare earths industry and that the company can still generate outsized returns even in a much lower price environment for rare earths. Speaking of the price environment for rare earths, the Rare Earth Stocks Index is soaring 2.9% on news that Chinese exports of the 17 elements used to make a variety of high-tech and military gadgets fell 8.8% in the first five months of this year compared against the year-earlier period. Declining Chinese exports are believed to be one of the catalysts behind the recent surge in rare earths as China controls 95% of the rare earths export market.

Chinese exports fell to 23,742 metric tons in the January-May 2011 period, the Wall Street Journalreported, citing China’s Economic Information & Agency. Beijing also reiterated its vow to remain vigilant against violators of the export quotas, the Journal reported.

Previous posts of rare-earths and MolyCorp can be found here

Molycorp’s Mine -

Products made from Rare Earths

China’s Inflation & US Data Lift Markets

Tuesday, June 14th, 2011

China’s Data

Chinese consumer inflation accelerated to a three-year high in May, in line with expectations and bolstering the case for tighter credit conditions to help contain prices, while other data helped round out a picture of relatively upbeat economic activity. The consumer price index rose 5.5% in May from a year earlier, compared to April’s 5.3% gain, the fastest rise since a 6.3% gain in July 2008, according to data released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing. A Dow Jones Newswires survey had tipped a 5.5% rise in the consumer price index, while a Reuters poll had projected a 5.4% rise. China on Tuesday lifted the proportion of funds banks must set aside as reserves by a half-point effective from June 20, marking the sixth such increase so far this year. The move reinforces its efforts to contain inflation, which is running at a nearly three-year high. The May producer price index rose 6.8%, flat from April and above the 6.5% consensus in the Dow Jones survey. Analysts at IHS Global Insight said it was “worrying” that the PPI reading hadn’t cooled, as many market observers were expecting.

Analysts believe there will be a soft landing event, and the enlarging gap between bearish perceptions and a much more stable reality could create another money-making opportunity at some point in the second half of 2011. It should be noted in particular that non-food inflation accelerated markedly in May to contribute to higher headline inflation, indicating increasing risk of inflation becoming more generalized.

The move by the The People’s Bank of China will bring the reserve requirement ratio to 21.5% for large banks and 19.5% for smaller ones. The move was unveiled after markets in China closed. The trend signals a greater resolve within China’s central bank to inflation, he said, estimating it will drain about 370 billion yuan ($57.1 billion) from the banking system.

Fixed-asset investment accelerated to 25.8% in the January-May period from a year earlier, picking up from the 25.4% rise in the January-April period, and beating analyst expectations of a 25.3% rise in the to Dow Jones survey.

Meanwhile, industrial production rose 13.3% from the year-ago period, just above the separate Dow Jones and Reuters forecasts of 13.2%, but easing slightly from 13.4% in April.

Retail sales for the month were 16.9% above May 2010’s level, compared to 17.1% growth in April, and March’s 17.4% on-year rise. Analysts said the weaker retail sales growth was attributable to easing auto sales, which fell 3.9% in May from a year earlier, according to monthly figures released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

US Data

U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.2% in May, the slowest pace in 10 months, as the cost of food fell and the increase in energy prices tapered off, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The more closely followed core producer index also rose 0.2% in May. Analyst’s had predicted increases of 0.1% for overall producer prices and 0.2% for the core rate. Food costs dropped 1.4% last month, owing mainly to lower vegetable prices, to mark the biggest one-month decline in almost a year. Energy prices, meanwhile, rose 1.5% in May, the slowest rate since September. The price index for intermediate goods rose 0.9% and crude prices dropped 4.0%.

Retail sales, which provide a snapshot of consumption, fell for the first time in 11 months, although the decline was less than expected. Total retail sales slipped 0.2 percent, according to the Commerce Department. Economists had forecast retail sales falling 0.4 percent, according to Reuters.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 95 points to 11,980 and Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures were up 13.60 points at 1,279.8. In the context of good growth data in China and an oversold market condition in the US, a short-term bounce makes sense. I think from here on in it will be a sideways moving market for the rest of the year with a few market uptrends in the second of 2011. There are too many economic and political uncertainties — including high weekly jobless claims, high oil prices, an unstable housing market and disagreement over U.S. debt.

US Economic Data: Claims, Trade Deficit, Wholesale Inventories

Thursday, June 9th, 2011

Jobless Claims

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment aid unexpectedly edged higher last week, stoking fears of a stalled economic recovery even as a separate report showed record U.S. exports in April. Initial claims for state jobless benefits increased 1,000 to 427,000, the Labor Department said. However, economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims dropping to 415,000 from a previously reported count of 422,000. The rise kept first-time claims perched above the 400,000 mark for the ninth week in a row. Analysts normally associate a level below that with steady job growth.

Fueling concerns about job creation, the U.S. government said on Friday the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 9.1 percent in May while non-farm employers added a paltry 54,000 workers to their payrolls. Analysts say the June Report may show a rise in the  unemployment to 9.2%

Trade Deficit

A Commerce Department report showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in April, as U.S. exports rose to a new record and imports from Japan tumbled more than 25 percent after its earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. The monthly trade gap totaled $43.7 billion, down 6.7 percent from a revised estimate of $46.8 billion in March which was originally reported as $48.2 billion. The $3 billion drop in imports from Japan from March to April was the largest on record. U.S. auto and auto parts imports from Japan and other suppliers fell $2.8 billion, partly reflecting supply chain disruptions in the aftermath of the triple disaster.

Once those problems are worked through, many analysts expect the trade gap to widen again. Right now the trade report looks like it’s going to be positive for Q2 GDP, but by the end of June the bounce back will be obvious. The trade gap narrowed despite the biggest month-to-month jump in prices for imported oil in nearly three years. The average price rose to $103.18 per barrel, the highest since September 2008.

However, the volume of crude oil imports fell, pushing the overall U.S. oil import bill lower in April. That, combined with the lower imports from Japan, helped trim total U.S. imports 0.4 percent to $219.2 billion, even as imports of foods, feeds and beverages set a record, the report showed.

U.S. exports, buoyed by a weakening of the U.S. dollar, rose 1.3 percent to a record $175.6 billion, led by record shipments of industrial supplies and materials and capital goods and smaller gains for food, feeds and beverages, consumer goods and autos and auto parts.

The closely watched U.S. trade deficit with China jumped nearly 20 percent in April to $21.6 billion. It continues at a pace to exceed last year’s record of about $273 billion.

Wholesale Inventories

U.S. wholesale inventories rose less than expected in April, held back by the biggest drop in auto inventories since December 2009, a Commerce Department report showed on Thursday. Inventories rose 0.8 percent to $447.2 billion in the first month of the second quarter, below economists’ forecasts for a 1.0 percent rise. Automotive inventories, one of the biggest categories, fell 1.3 percent.

Sales rose to $393.5 billion, the highest since June 2008. But the 0.3 percent month-to-month rise was much less than the 1.2 percent gain analysts had forecast. A 0.9 percent rise in both auto and computer sales was offset by bigger declines in categories such furniture, lumber, professional equipment and metals. The inventory to sales ratio rose slightly to 1.14.