Posts Tagged ‘Debt’

Greece Debt Deal Seconds Away (Or Hours,Days,Weeks Away)

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

Markets are in euphoria as stocks held onto their gains for the first trading day of February. This is extending the impressive rally in January, following a handful of positive economic news from Europe and China in addition to news that Greece and its private creditors may only be hours away from a deal. BUT, several hours later, we are still waiting for the 70% haircut “really slice” of Greece’s forgiven debt  burden. On Tuesday, the S&P triggered a “golden cross,” meaning its 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day average. That is seen as the signal of an uptrend, but some analysts see it more as a psychological positive, confirming a move, rather than as a major signal.

For the month of January, the Dow rallied 3.4 percent, the S&P 500 jumped 4.36 percent, and the NASDAQ surged 8.01 percent. All three major indexes posted their best month since last October, while the Dow and S&P logged their best January since 1997.

US and World Economic Data

The pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector rose to 54.1 in January, to its highest level since June, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Economists had expected a reading of 54.4, according to a Reuters poll. Still, a reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Construction spending gained 1.5 percent in December, logging its fifth consecutive monthly gain, according to the Commerce Department.

China’s factory sector expanded in January, supporting hopes the world’s second-biggest economy will avoid a hard landing.

Greece Debt Deal

Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said talks between Athens and its private creditors were “one formal step away” from a deal needed to avoid a messy default. Greece is locked in two sets of talks— one with private creditors to have them take losses on their bondholdings and the other with its international bailout rescuers to receive new loans. 

“We are at a crucial point in developments. In the coming days, the agreements must be completed” for the bond swap and a second €130 billion ($171 billion) bailout package, government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis said. Debt inspectors from the European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, known as the troika, are in Athens for talks on the second rescue package, which is tied to an agreement with private creditors to accept losses on Greek bonds they hold. The success of the bond deal, however, also depends on the outcome of the bailout talks.

The bond swap, known as the Private Sector Involvement, or PSI, will see private creditors swap the bonds they hold with new ones worth half their original face value, longer repayment times and lower interest rates. They will also get a €30 billion cash sweetener — to be taken from the €130 billion bailout — for accepting the deal. Once secured, the PSI will cut €100 billion off Greece’s national debt.

Overall, the investors participating in the deal will face a loss on their bondholdings of more than 70 percent, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said in a Parliament committee meeting Tuesday night. The official offering of the new bonds will come by Feb. 13, Venizelos said. Greece is running out of time, as it faces a €14.5 billion bond redemption on March 20 that it cannot afford to pay without additional help. A default would spell disaster for the country and destabilize European and global markets.

Both deals will need the agreement of the heads of the three political parties in Greece’s interim coalition, Kapsis said, and Prime Minister Lucas Papademos was to call the party heads to a meeting to sign off on them and required austerity measures. Chief IMF inspector Poul Thomsen also said a deal was close, but pressed the recession-plagued country to lower employment costs and even slash the minimum wage to make the economy more competitive.

On the contrary the European Central Bank is likely to refuse to show its hand on how it will help cut Greece’s debt burden until private investors and the government have agreed to a deal. While Greece’s creditors are increasing pressure on the ECB to join the bond swap being negotiated with the country, central bankers have remained silent on their intentions. Economists say the ECB wants to see the private-sector agreement concluded before indicating its strategy, which may include forgoing profits from its Greek bonds or a transfer to one of the region’s rescue funds.

Result Of The EU Summit; Housing Prices Dip Again

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

Meeting in Brussels, on Monday, European Union leaders agreed to implement the European Stability Mechanism, a permanent rescue fund, in July. The first summit of the year ended without new solutions for the debt crisis in Greece. Without a deal with private-sector creditors, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds, and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that’s due March 20. The €500 billion ESM was originally set to enter into force next year, when a temporary bailout fund expires.  The leaders of all but two members of the 27-nation EU also agreed to sign a fiscal pact, which was designed to prevent governments from running excessive deficits and racking up unsustainable debts. U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground Monday afternoon, but struggled to pull out of the red as concerns over Greece continued to weigh on the market. Stocks initially opened higher amid renewed hopes for a Greek deal and after the approval of a new euro zone budget discipline pact. Stocks then erased their early gains Tuesday following a handful of weaker-than-expected earnings and economic news.

However, gains were limited by the mounting tension surrounding Portugal’s debt woes, with the nation’s two-year bond yields hitting a euro-era record above 21 percent. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor’s warned it may downgrade “a number of highly rated” G20 nations from 2015 if their governments fail to enact reforms to curb rising health care spending. Concerns over the size of United States debt reared their head once again as ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warned that health care costs for a number of highly-rated Group of 20 countries, including the U.S., could hurt growth prospects and harm their sovereign creditworthiness from the middle of this decade.

“Governments’ fiscal burdens will increase significantly over the coming decade, with the highest deterioration in public finances likely to occur in Europe and other advanced G-20 economies, such as Japan and the U.S.,” S&P said in a statement on Tuesday. Health care costs for a typical advanced economy will stand at 11.1 percent of gross domestic product by 2050, up from 6.3 percent of GDP in 2010, S&P said. Population aging will lead to profound changes in economic growth prospects for countries around the world as governments work to build budgets to face ever greater age-related spending needs.

Housing Doldrums Remain

On the economic front, home prices fell 1.3 percent last November, according to S&P/Case-Shiller’s 20-city composite index, adding to the 0.7 percent drop seen in October. Economists had expected a decline of 0.5 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 17 out of 20 cities racked up monthly declines and average national home prices were around levels seen in mid-2003. Prices in the 20 cities also steepened their year-over-year decline, falling 3.7 percent compared to a 3.4 percent decline in October. Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall.

Recent data has lead to optimism the housing sector is in the early stages of the healing process, with some economists looking for prices to find a bottom this year. Still, the recovery is expected to be a lengthy one as the market remains hampered by an excess amount of homes for sale in the midst of weak demand.

Portugal May Be Next On Debt Restructuring

Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

This morning the Portuguese 5 Year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) rates touched an all time high 1250 basis points or 12.5%. Yes it’s true, they are not borrowing from the public markets therefore are not affected by high rates since bailout, early summer of 2011. However bond vigilantes are demanding higher rate of returns which may signify a 70% risk of default. Yet, the dilemma on Greece’s debt restructuring has still not panned out. To add to the doldrums, this morning Standard & Poor’s announced that it will likely downgrade Greece’s ratings to “selective default” when the country concludes its debt restructuring. Athens is desperate for a deal within days to ensure funds from a 130 billion euro rescue plan drawn up by European partners and the International Monetary Fund arrive before 14.5 billion euros bond redemption’s fall due in March.

Greece was clinging on Tuesday to hope of a last-minute bond swap deal to avoid a messy default after euro zone officials sent talks back to square one by rejecting a final offer from the country’s private bondholders. After weeks of haggling with creditors in Athens, euro zone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday dealt a sharp setback to those hopes by rejecting creditors’ demand for a 4 percent coupon, or interest rate, on new, longer-dated bonds in exchange for existing debt. Private sector creditors now have the upper hand in deciding whether Athens will be forced into a hard default that could sow chaos across the global financial system (credit event) and push other weak euro zone members closer to a default.

A “voluntary” swap where both sides agree to the terms of the deal is required to prevent insurance against a Greek debt default from being paid out. The bond swap is meant to cut 100 billion euros from Greece’s debt burden of over 350 billion, in a bid to ultimately slash its debt from around 160 percent of GDP to a more manageable 120 percent of GDP by 2020.

Read previous post of Portugal issues here.

To see the Macro Economic effects to US markets see this video on Portuguese 5 Yr CDS Rates

Greek Debt Deal Still Not Done

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

European leaders ratcheted up the pressure Monday on Greek bondholders to take voluntary losses to ease the region’s debt crisis. Talk that Europe has no intention to give more money to Greece may be contributing to stock declines on Monday. Finance ministers were meeting, Greece had been presented with a “maximum offer” by its private bondholders, was also in play. The message from Euro finance ministers to the Greek officials implying they should not expect an increased bailout above the current planned amount could be a reason. A deal was to be hashed over the weekend but that quickly faded into Satuarday night. Perhaps the ground work is being laid out for a possible Greek default. Or investors are looking past Greece and looking towards Portugal who made need a similar debt restructure. It’s not clear how Europe is going to deal with both its debt and growth issues. We are likely to get a good announcement from the negotiations between the Greek government and the steering committee of the (Institute of International Finance).

How the Greek restructuring is handled — whether it will be treated as an outright default, which would trigger insurance policies known as credit default swaps against the debt, or if it will be regarded as voluntary and thus not a credit event that would cause CDS payoffs.

Christine Legarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, earlier in the morning told CNBC that the IMF will need a total of $500 billion, or another $350 billion, for its liquidity fund. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) turned the focus on governments, urging them to complete action on a new bailout fund. Patience among leaders may be wearing thin as bondholders and Greek officials wrangle over the interest rate for new bonds that would be part of a deal reducing Greek debt by around €100 billion, or $130 billion.

Private sector bondholders are seeking yields of nearly 4 percent, but Greece, as well as Germany and the I.M.F., argue that a yield closer to 3 percent is necessary to give the restructuring a serious hope of success. With the talks at an impasse, the pressure is now mounting on finance ministers to push for a solution. At stake is the need to pare Greek debt to levels where the country can conclude a bailout with the European Union and the I.M.F. that would give it the cash it needs to repay loans coming due in March and, officials hope, allow Athens to finance its needs through 2013. Without such a package, Greece could be faced with a chaotic default that further destabilizes the rest of the euro zone. Reinforcing the need for a deal, Mrs. Merkel said she wanted agreement “soon enough that no new bridge loan whatsoever will be needed” for Greece.

 The I.M.F. pressed European governments to bolster the bailout funds available for euro zone countries so that the region’s problems can be contained. “We need a larger fire wall,” Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said at a conference in Berlin. Governments should add “substantial real resources to what is currently available,” she said. She suggested that the €440 billion European Financial Stability Facility, a temporary bailout fund established in 2010, could be rolled into a €500 billion permanent fund, the European Stability Mechanism, that officials hope to introduce by the middle of this year.

Greece Close To A Debt Cut Deal

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Greece and its private creditors on Friday were nearing an agreement on a deal to write down 50%-70% of the face value of the country’s debt by swapping existing bonds for new bonds with longer maturities and lower interest rates. Last weeks talks broke down, so we have yet to see the details on paper. What rate is chosen could determine how much of a loss creditors will take on the current value of their Greek debt holdings. Participants in the talks say discussions are continuing and the exact details could change. Technically, this is considered a restructured debt reorganization dubbed during the process of bankruptcy. Portugal clinched a deal on ambitious labour market reforms this week and carried out its biggest debt sale since seeking a 78-billion-euro bailout, but the challenges for the second-most risky country in the euro zone may be shifting up a gear. Portugal is the next potential candidate to default in the euro zone after Greece — a point that is fast becoming clear as Athens approaches the end of its debt restructuring talks.

A deal between Greece and private-sector creditors has been identified as a prerequisite for progress by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to make their contributions to a second bailout package for Greece totaling €130 billion ($168.6billion). Greece and representatives of bondholders, predominantly banks and hedge funds, were closing in a coupon that would begin at 3.5% on new bonds with shorter maturities and rising to a cap of 4.6% on longer-dated bonds. The new bonds will carry maturities of up to 30 years, with a grace period on repayment of principal debt of up to 10 years under discussion.

Creditors would be writing down 50% of the face value of the bonds, but in terms of net present value over the course of the maturities represents a loss for bondholders of between 65% to 70%, said a participant in the talks. The goal is to slice €100 billion off Greece’s total €360 billion stock of debt—saving Greece some €4 billion a year in interest payments. The amount of public support for Greece will depend on how much of a reduction the private sector makes in the country’s overall debt.

There is pressure on the government to make up for missed deficit targets last year, as well as to detail some €12.5 billion in further fiscal cuts to narrow Greece’s budget deficit over the next four years which will further bring deep recessions.

Portugal

Portugal clinched a deal on ambitious labour market reforms this week and carried out its biggest debt sale since seeking a 78-billion-euro bailout, but the challenges for the second-most risky country in the euro zone may be shifting up a gear. Portugal is the next potential candidate to default in the euro zone after Greece — a point that is fast becoming clear as Athens approaches the end of its debt restructuring talks. 

The concerns were clearly borne out this week as Portugal’s bond yields rose virtually without interruption, to all-time highs, despite the issuance of 2.5 billion euros of short-term treasury bills on Wednesday at slightly lower yields. The country’s 10-year yields rose to almost 15 percent on Thursday and hovered around 14.80 percent on Friday. Five-year credit default swap prices implied the market was pricing in a 66.8 percent chance of a Portuguese default. The sharp rise in bond yields was partially triggered by Standard & Poor’s downgrades of European countries last week, which left Portugal as the second euro zone country to be rated “junk” by all the main rating agencies, along with Greece.

Portugal was the only country really rattled by the downgrade because it is seen as a much more complicated case. It combines the same high level of private sector overindebtedness as Spain, high public sector debt similar to Italy, plus the economic recession. 

The key problem for Portugal, which was the third euro zone country to seek a bailout after Greece and Ireland, is whether it has enough time to restructure its economy to grow as it enacts harsh austerity and faces the worst recession in decades. This year will be the toughest of the three-year bailout as deep spending cuts, including the elimination of two months of pay for civil servants and across-the-board tax hikes, spark a 3 percent economic contraction after a 1.6 percent slump in 2011. The most probable outcome is Portugal asking for longer terms or more bailout money, just as Greece has done. Portugal has to return to the long-term bond market in the second half of 2013, which many analysts see as at least hard to achieve. Problem relates to its high level of debt, currently around 100 percent of gross domestic product, combined with low growth.

S&P Touches 1330; China GDP Rallies World

Tuesday, January 17th, 2012

U.S. stocks advanced after better-than-expected economic data in the U.S. & China fueled optimism over the pace of global economic growth and helped investors shrug off a slate of European ratings downgrades late last week. The DJIA climbed 114 points, or 0.9%, to 12538. The S&P 500 advanced 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1300. Before the open of trading, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey well outstripped expectations. The business-conditions index rose to 13.48 this month from a revised 8.19 in December. Economists had expected a reading of 11. China’s economy grew at its weakest pace in 2-1/2 years in the latest quarter, but slightly stronger than the 8.7 percent that economists had predicted.

China Economy Slowing

China’s economy grew at its weakest pace in 2-1/2 years in the latest quarter and it appeared headed for an even sharper slowdown in the coming months as export demand fades and the housing market falters. The fourth-quarter year-on-year growth of 8.9 percent, although slightly stronger than the 8.7 percent that economists had predicted, may give Beijing yet another reason to gently ease monetary policy, most likely by reducing the amount of reserves that large banks must hold. The data released on Tuesday may not satisfy investors, who were looking for figures that were either weak enough to provide a clear-cut case for policy easing or strong enough to allay fears that the world’s second-biggest economy might unravel.

Economists widely expect China’s 2012 growth will be the weakest in a decade, a more pronounced slowdown would put a major drag on already shaky global growth. Ma Jiantang, the head of China’s statistics agency, said China’s growth was likely to slow further as Beijing tries to restructure the economy away from exports and towards domestic consumption, something the United States and other trading partners have long pressed China to do.

ECB Overnight Deposits

Commercial banks parked over half a trillion euros at the European Central Bank, the highest on record, as the mix of debt crisis worries and a recent giant injection of ECB cash left banks awash with money but too scared to lend it. Overnight deposits at the ECB have been hitting new records even since last month’s first ever offering of three-year loans from the ECB pumped 490 billion euros ($620 billion) into the banking system. ECB data on Tuesday showed deposits topped the half a trillion mark for the first time ever, as banks parked a staggering 502 billion euros, up from the 493 billion euros the previous day.

It is likely to mark at least a temporary peak in the level of hoarding. The end of the ECB’s monthly reserves cycle – the point when banks have fulfilled their ECB targets and have few options to juggle their funding – ends on Tuesday. Deposits traditionally drop when the new reserves cycle begins and banks have more funding freedom. Changes to the ECB’s reserves rules, which will mean banks have to keep less of a cash buffer at the ECB, will also kick in on Wednesday. The move will cut banks’ reserves ratio requirements to 1 percent from 2 percent and is set to save banks 100 billion euros according to the ECB.

Spain Debt Auction

Spain’s first test of investor appetite for its debt since a two-notch ratings downgrade, selling 4.88 billion euros ($6.2 billion) of treasury bills ahead of a far trickier hurdle later this week. The Treasury had aimed to raise between 4 and 5 billion euros from the sale, a prelude to what has been dubbed a “litmus test” auction on Thursday of bonds with maturities of up to 10 years. Yields on the 12- and 18-month paper were 2.049 percent and 2.399 percent respectively, slightly lower than expected and little more than half of what was paid to place the same maturities in December.

This Thursday Spain will look to place 3.5-4.5 billion euros of paper due in 2016, 2019 and 2022, the latter two maturities well beyond the duration of the ECB loans. Prior to Tuesday’s bill auction, analysts said they expected the ten-year auction yield at around 5.5 percent. The last time Spain sold 10-year paper was on Dec 15, when it paid 5.545 percent. The 10-year bond traded at 5.14 percent, slightly lower on the day.

EU Summit January 30th: Credit Event?

Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

Nicolas Sarkozy wants to speed up the launch of the proposed tax on financial transactions in Europe because he thinks this might help his re-election bid. As the euro zone gears up for yet more high-level meetings about its debt crisis, a series of planned summits await. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s latest meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy focused on the problems facing Greece. They put pressure on the euro zone’s most heavily indebted nation to make a deal with creditor banks on a bond swap and avoid defaulting on its debt repayments. The macroeconomic imbalance has to be resolved, not only by the deficit countries but also by surplus countries.

Merkel meets IMF head Christine Lagarde Tuesday, and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti Wednesday. Together with Sarkozy, Merkel warned Greece on Monday that it would not get any more bailout funds if it did not reach a deal soon. Merkel and Sarkozy do not feel confident enough to write a big check to help out Greece yet. 

Greece enters a pivotal period in which it must finish a crucial renegotiation of its more than $200 billion of debt. Thus far, the plan is to offer bondholders 15 cents in new cash and 35 cents in new debt for every 100 cents of Greek debt they hold. According to several people familiar with the situation, the maturity on the new debt is likely to be 30 years, but the interest rate is yet to be decided and is the most contentious part of the deal. The new bonds are expected to be under U.K. legal jurisdiction rather than Greek jurisdiction. Bondholders prefer U.K. jurisdiction because it prevents Greece from retroactively changing the terms of the debt. (The Greek Parliament can’t change U.K. laws). Also expected to be part of the offer, a structure that puts the new bonds on par with the European Financial Stability Fund. Greece has a principal repayment of more than $14 billion due in mid-March and it doesn’t have the money. In fact, the country remains cash-flow negative each week. The debt negotiation must get done in order to first reduce the size of that payment in March, and second to get the next tranche of bailout money from their European partners. If those things don’t fall into place, a default is highly likely. The only other remedy would be a last-minute emergency injection of cash. Where could that come from? Perhaps other European countries, but that would be a tremendous political hurdle to climb.

One way to force bondholders to tender their existing debt is to impose a “collective action clause” retroactively. That means Greece could simply change the terms of the old debt, and decide that if a certain percentage of bondholders, say 75 percent to 90 percent, agree to tender, then the deal is imposed on every bondholder. However, this, too, would trigger a credit event because changing the terms of a bond is understood to be a triggering event under the terms of CDS contracts. European leaders are concerned a credit event could trigger a Lehman-like contagion in the euro zone.

Yet another option is for Greece to change its laws at the parliamentary level, rather than changing the terms of the old debt. Passing that law in and of itself is not a credit-triggering event. But what remains uncertain to market participants is this: If enough bondholders still don’t tender their bonds, and then Greece imposes the Collective Action Clause, is that a CDS triggering event? That will be decided by a committee from the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, and some market participants say it is impossible to predict what a committee will do, especially when there is so much political pressure from European leaders to avoid it.

Sarkozy said last week he was ready to go it alone and introduce a financial transactions tax just in France if necessary rather than wait for the whole European Union to sign up to it — an unlikely prospect given that Britain is refusing to impose such a tax for fear of damaging the City of London, Europe’s biggest financial center. Merkel, keen to show nervous markets that the Franco-German alliance is intact at the start of what promises to be another difficult year in the euro crisis, praised Sarkozy’s stance and even made a minor concession, saying for the first time that she could envisage the tax being introduced just in the 17-member euro zone rather than the full 27-member EU. The tax, based on concept proposed by US economist James Tobin who called for a tax on currency transactions in the early 1970s, has been under renewed discussion since 2011 when the European Commission proposed a plan to tax stock, bond and derivatives trades from 2014, potentially raising €57 billion ($73 billion), much of it from Britain, the region’s biggest trading center. Under the EU plan, which would need the backing of all 27 member states to become law, stock and bond trades would be taxed at the rate of 0.1 percent, with derivatives deals at 0.01 percent. Given the public mistrust of banks since the 2008 global financial crisis, such a tax would be a popular move and would help cover the cost of this and future crises. But it would prove difficult to introduce, with critics saying it will simply scare off traders. Sweden and Britain are strongly opposed to it.

Did The Central Banks Just Saved The World

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

World markets are massively short covering their positions after an announcement this morning at 8 AM EST, that the coordinated action by central banks around the world will provide more liquidity to the global financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve, after a similar effort in September, will “lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points.” Wednesday’s move from the Fed was matched by corresponding actions from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. The new pricing applies to operations conducted as of Dec. 5, and the authorization of the swap arrangements has been extended to Feb. 13. What does this mean? Does the signal that the financial markets were really beginning to dry up with interbank lending. Was the European debt crisis beginning to unravel for the worse with the German inactions? What does mean to the Dollar? —->Devaluation 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 415 points to 11,970, while the S&P 500 added 42 points to 1,237. The victim of the surge was the dollar, which stumbled on the central banks’ latest move to flood the market with more greenbacks. The euro climbed to $1.3487, from $1.3315 Tuesday. In my opinion policymakers are buying time for the Euro Zone to changes treaties and most likely drastically change the structure of the common currency (and yes, definitely kick a few members out). They also must find a way to rescue the banks and inject additional liquidity similar to the US TARP. The underlining problem remains the monstrous debt held.

While the effort to provide more liquidity may temporarily soothe the symptoms of Europe’s debt crisis and allow financial institutions easier access to funding, it does little to address the underlying roots of overburdened governments that need to be propped up while they drastically cut spending. 

The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) announced new leverage tools geared at increasing its lending capacity on Wednesday, but it still remains to be seen where the additional financing will come from for the public-private special purpose vehicles the EFSF intends to use to provide funding to sovereign governments through primary and secondary bond market purchases. That funding could in turn be used to recapitalize European banks that are at risk of crumbling due to their exposure to the region’s shaky credits. Those concerns took a backseat Wednesday morning though, as equities rallied and bond yields in at-risk countries like Italy and Spain held fairly steady.

China also gave the market a helping hand Wednesday, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for its banks in a bid to jumpstart an economy that has slowed from its torrid pace and fueled concerns about a hard landing that could threaten precarious global growth.

Here’s a statement from the FOMC website.

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity. 

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorized through February 1, 2013.

Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized an extension of the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank through February 1, 2013. The rate on these swap arrangements has been reduced from the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 100 basis points to the OIS rate plus 50 basis points. In addition, as a contingency measure, the Federal Open Market Committee has agreed to establish similar temporary swap arrangements with these five central banks to provide liquidity in any of their currencies if necessary. Further details on the revised arrangements will be available shortly.

U.S. financial institutions currently do not face difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets. However, were conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Action

The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have agreed to extend the US $30 billion swap facility (reciprocal currency arrangement) through 1 February 2013 and adjust the pricing to the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 50 basis points. This swap facility was set to expire on 1 August 2012. The introduction of the expanded network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of Canada, should the need arise, to provide Canadian dollars to the other central banks, and to provide liquidity in Japanese yen, euros, U.K. pounds sterling, Swiss francs and U.S. dollars (via the existing U.S. dollar swap facility) to financial institutions in Canada. The Bank of Canada judges that it is not necessary for it to draw or offer operations on any of these swap facilities at this time, but that it is prudent to have these agreements in place. Should these facilities be drawn on, the details of the liquidity facilities provided would depend on the specific market circumstances at the time. The Bank of Canada continues to closely monitor developments in global financial markets and remains committed to providing liquidity as required to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the functioning of financial markets.

Bank of England Action

The introduction of the network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of England to provide sterling to the other central banks if required, as well as enabling the Bank of England to provide liquidity, should it be needed, in Japanese yen, euro, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in U.S. dollars). The Bank will continue its weekly tenders of U.S. dollar funding at fixed interest rates each Wednesday until further notice, with counterparties able to borrow unlimited amounts against eligible collateral. The rate at which tenders are conducted will be reduced to OIS+50bps (from OIS+100bps) beginning with the next weekly tender on 7 December. The three-month tender scheduled for 7 December and subsequent three-month tenders will also be conducted at OIS+50bps. In the U.S. dollar repo operations, counterparties are permitted to borrow any amount against eligible collateral.

European Central Bank Decision

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in co-operation with other central banks the establishment of a temporary network of reciprocal swap lines.  This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars). The ECB will regularly conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately one week and three months at the new pricing. The schedule for these operations, which will take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, will be published today on the ECB’s website.

In addition, the initial margin for three-month US dollar operations will be reduced from currently 20% to 12% and weekly updates of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be introduced in order to carry out margin calls. Those changes will be effective as of the operations to be conducted on 7 December 2011. Further details about the operations will be made available in the respective modified tender procedure via the ECB’s Website.

Frequently Asked Questions: Foreign Currency Liquidity Swaps

What is the purpose of the foreign currency liquidity swap lines? 

The foreign currency liquidity swap lines are designed to provide the Federal Reserve with the capacity to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions should the Federal Reserve judge that such actions are appropriate.

Which central banks are participating in these arrangements?

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized arrangements between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. In addition, these foreign central banks are also establishing bilateral swap arrangements with one another.

Why are these swap lines being implemented?

These swap lines are being implemented as a contingency measure, so that central banks can offer liquidity in foreign currencies if market conditions warrant such actions. These lines provide the Federal Reserve with the same ability to provide foreign currency, should the need arise, as foreign central banks currently have through the existing dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve to provide dollar liquidity in their jurisdictions.

Why is the Federal Reserve establishing lines for these five currencies and with these five central banks? 

These five currencies are used globally and account for the bulk of the foreign currency funding of U.S. financial institutions.

In what manner would foreign currency liquidity be provided?

There has not been a decision to activate the foreign currency liquidity facilities. If the Federal Reserve were to decide to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions, the details of the operations would be determined at that time in light of the prevailing circumstances.

Will activity under the liquidity swap arrangements be disclosed to the public? 

Yes, the aggregate swap activity in each currency with foreign central banks will be published weekly. They will be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Foreign Exchange Swap Agreement webpage . In addition, any liquidity-supplying operations in foreign currencies would be subject to the same disclosure requirements as the Federal Reserve’s dollar-based activities.

For how long are the swap arrangements expected to be in place?

These swap arrangements, along with the existing U.S. dollar swap arrangements, have been authorized through February 1, 2013.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from May 2010

Why has the Federal Reserve re-established temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities with foreign central banks? 

The swap facilities announced in May 2010 respond to the re-emergence of strains in short term funding markets in Europe. They are designed to improve liquidity conditions in global money markets and to minimize the risk that strains abroad could spread to U.S. markets, by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions.

With which central banks has the Federal Reserve entered into swap facilities? 

The Federal Reserve has established swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

How do the swap facilities function? 

The swap lines with the ECB, BOE, SNB and BOJ provide these central banks with the capacity to conduct tenders of U.S. dollars in their local markets at fixed local rates for full allotment, similar to arrangements that had been in place previously. The swap line with the Bank of Canada allows for drawings of up to $30 billion. The terms, structure, and operational mechanics of these swap agreements closely parallel the arrangements that expired on February 1, 2010.

For how long are the swap facilities expected to be operational? 

These swap arrangements have been authorized through February 1, 2013. Central banks may request drawings on their swap lines up to the date of expiration.

Is the Federal Reserve exposed to foreign exchange or private bank risk in extending these lines? 

No. Dollars provided through the reciprocal currency swaps are provided by the Federal Reserve to foreign central banks, not to the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central bank receiving dollars determines the terms on which it will lend dollars onward to institutions in its jurisdiction, including how the foreign central bank will allocate dollar funds to financial institutions, which institutions are eligible to borrow, and what types of collateral they may borrow against. The terms governing these loans of dollars are in all cases released to the public by the foreign central banks. As the Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship is exclusively with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations, the Federal Reserve does not assume the credit risk associated with lending to financial institutions based in these foreign jurisdictions. The provision of dollars and receipt of foreign currency, and the receipt of dollars and return of foreign currency at the swap’s maturity date, both occur at the same foreign exchange rate so that the Federal Reserve is not exposed to movements in foreign exchange rates.

Is activity under the liquidity swap arrangements disclosed to the public? 

Yes, swap activity is published weekly. The Federal Reserve has also released the underlying legal agreements with foreign central banks.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from December 2007 to February 2010

What was the purpose of the dollar liquidity swap lines?

The dollar liquidity swap lines were designed to improve liquidity conditions in U.S. and foreign financial markets by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions during times of market stress.

What circumstances led to the implementation of these facilities?

The swap arrangements were introduced to address stresses in U.S. dollar funding in overseas markets. These difficulties were adding materially to pressures in funding and credit markets in the United States and abroad.

Who authorized the use of the swaps?

The arrangements were authorized by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System and the policy boards or executives of the respective foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve had the right to approve or deny requests by foreign central banks to draw on their swap lines. The FOMC authorized these arrangements through February 1, 2010. The foreign central banks could request draws on their swap lines up to that date.

Which central banks could engage in swaps?

The Federal Reserve established swap arrangements with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank.

How were the swaps structured?

The Federal Reserve provided U.S. dollars to a foreign central bank. At the same time, the foreign central bank provided the equivalent amount of funds in its currency to the Federal Reserve, based on the market exchange rate at the time of the transaction. The parties agreed to swap back these quantities of their two currencies at a specified date in the future, which was the next day or as far ahead as three months, using the same exchange rate as in the first transaction. Because the terms of this second transaction were set in advance, fluctuations in exchange rates during the interim did not alter the eventual payments. Accordingly, these swap operations carried no exchange rate or other market risks.

How did foreign central banks distribute the U.S. dollar funding they received through these swaps?

The foreign central banks distributed the U.S. dollars they drew through a variety of methods, including variable-rate tenders, fixed-rate tenders, bilateral transactions, and foreign exchange swap tenders against various types of collateral, including both foreign currency and securities denominated in foreign currency. In each case, the arrangement was between the foreign central bank and the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central banks determined the acceptability of the collateral offered and the eligibility of the institutions to participate in the operations they conducted. The terms on which funds were tendered were released to the public by the foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship was with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations.

What revenues and costs arose for the Federal Reserve?

When a foreign central bank drew on its swap line to fund its dollar tender operations, it paid interest to the Federal Reserve in an amount equal to the interest the foreign central bank earned on its tender operations. For its part, the Federal Reserve did not pay interest and committed to hold the foreign currency that it acquired in the swap transaction at the foreign central bank (rather than lending it or investing it in private markets). The structure of the arrangement served to avoid domestic currency reserve management difficulties for foreign central banks that could have arisen if the Federal Reserve had actively invested the foreign currency holdings in the marketplace.

What was the impact of swaps on U.S. monetary operations?

The drawing of U.S. dollars by a foreign central bank resulted in an increase in the level of reserve balances held at the Reserve Banks. Similarly, the repayment of U.S. dollars to the Federal Reserve when a swap was unwound resulted in a drain of these balances.

Markets Recoup Losses From Being Oversold

Monday, November 28th, 2011

The S&P is up more than 37 points to 1196 this morning in sharp contrast to the heavy selling we have seen for the last two weeks. The catalyst for the big up open is optimism based on new proposals to contain the Europe’s debt crisis and a strong start to the US Christmas shopping season. Stocks reached extremely oversold levels last week, setting the stage for this type of bounce that we have grown accustomed to over the last several months. Asia &  European markets are also up big today. On Sunday, Italian daily newspaper La Stampa reported that the International Monetary Fund was considering (rumor) launching an aid program with enough cash to support nearly half of the Italian bond market, sending stocks around the world sharply higher.

Reports claim that the IMF is readying a 600 billion Euro ($794) fund rescue package for Italy, but there has been no confirmation. There have also been reports that the Eurozone’s six Triple-A rated countries are prepared to float joint bonds in order to help fund the region’s indebted members (PIIGS). Investors have started to worry about a worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis, with fears that the Euro currency itself could be eventually scrapped. Germany remains a reluctant participant in bailouts, and it remains to be seen what the end of the rope would be. Analysts believe the entire Eurozone project is at a crucial turning point. Belgium, France and Italy all have important bond issues this week, which will likely play a major part in determining market direction.

Italy is unlikely to stabilize on its own as the size of its debt leaves it heavily exposed to changes in market sentiment in a context where self-reinforcing negative market dynamics are difficult to break with domestic policies alone. With the IMF unlikely to have the resources, the EFSF and more importantly the ECB are likely to be involved as well.

The weekend press was full of reports of what Angela Merkel and Germany are demanding to in order for funds to help solve the debt crisis. A new stability pact, a new Treaty, fiscal union, common corporate tax rates whilst holding countries to account but no joint Eurobonds or change of role for the ECB. France and Nicolas Sarkozy have had to stand side by side with Germany and its reluctance to allow the ECB to start hovering up huge amounts of euro zone debt. In return, it will want the ECB to expand its balance sheet to help stabilize the crisis something Germany has so far resisted.