Posts Tagged ‘euro’

IMF Is Raising Funds to $1 Trillion

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

The International Monetary Fund is proposing to raise its lending capacity by as much as $500 billion to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis. The Washington-based lender is aiming to increase its resources after identifying a potential need for $1 trillion in financing in coming years, an IMF spokesman said in a statement. A US Treasury official stated they have “no intention’ of providing additional money to the International Monetary Fund. The Treasury spokesperson said that Europe has the capacity to solve its own problems and the IMF cannot substitute for a robust euro-area firewall. This new rallied stocks around the world.

That news echoed media reports last December, which said that the IMF was planning to put together $600 billion to lend to troubled euro zone states, but the financial institution denied the reports. In November, a report in Italian newspaper La Stampa which said that the IMF was preparing an aid package worth up to 600 billion euros ($798 billion) for Italy boosted European stocks, but was quickly denied by officials from the Fund. The additional funding needs will be discussed at the G20 meeting in Mexico City in February, the source said.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said yesterday her staff is looking at ways to expand the fund’s war-chest, which currently has about $385 billion available. While euro-region nations have already pledged to contribute 150 billion euros ($192 billion), the U.S. has said it has no plans to make new bilateral loans and leaders of Group of 20 nations ended last year at odds over the issue. “The biggest challenge is to respond to the crisis in an adequate manner and many executive directors stressed the necessity and urgency of collective efforts to contain the debt crisis in the euro area and protect economies around the world,” Lagarde said yesterday in an e-mailed statement.

The IMF is pushing China, Brazil, Russia, India, Japan and oil-exporting nations to be the top contributors, according to a G-20 official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. The fund wants a deal struck at the Feb. 25- 26 meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Mexico City, the official said. The push for more money by the IMF may extend this month’s rally in investor sentiment toward European debt markets on speculation the region is enjoying a respite from its two-year debt turmoil and that any euro-area recession may be shallow.

In a sign the crisis may have longer to run, the World Bank cut its global growth forecast yesterday by the most in three years to 2.5 percent this year and said the euro area may contract 0.3 percent. Euro-area countries also need to repay 157 billion euros of maturing debt this quarter.

S&P Hits 1266 Resistance; Markets Fall

Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

U.S. stocks dropped Wednesday, sending the S&P back into the red for 2011, as concerns about Italy’s long-term debt auction on Thursday pushed the euro below the $1.30 level. Investors were pulling back from risk ahead of an Italian auction of longer-term government debt on Thursday. Before the opening bell Wednesday, U.S. stock futures were gearing up for a higher open, thanks to a successful auction of short-term Treasury bills in Italy. Demand for Italian six-month bills increased from the previous auction, and the average yield of 3.251% was half of the 6.504% average, a euro-era high, paid a month earlier for the same maturity.

But that optimism faded as the euro tumbled and yields for longer-term Italian debt marched higher throughout the U.S. morning. Italy’s 10-year yield traded recently at 6.944% as investors looked ahead to Thursday’s auction, close to the 7% threshold that economists consider unsustainable. Adding to the concern, the European Central Bank’s overnight deposit facility reached a second-straight record raising worries that banks would rather park cash there rather than lend it to other banks. The euro fell as low as $1.2954, down 0.9% for the session and just short of the 11-month low of $1.2945 it reached in mid-December. As traders fled the common currency and other risk-sensitive assets in thin holiday markets, the dollar was boosted against nearly every major currency except a broadly stronger yen. However, some investors warned that thin markets tend to exacerbate price movements during year-end trading.

Italy sold 9 billion euros ($11.8 billion) in 6-month T-bills, with a yield of 3.25 percent compared with November’s euro era high of 6.5 percent.

The SPX or SPY remains bullish above the ascending triangle. A break below 1200 will say otherwise.

Commodities Slammed; S&P Drops To 1210

Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 11,823.48) gave up 131.5 points, or 1.1%, to end below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages for the first time since Nov. 29. The S&P (SPX – 1,211.82) was slapped for 13.9 points, or 1.1%, ending south of its own 20-day trendline for the first time this month. Stocks and commodities were slammed lower today, as escalating concerns about European debt sent Wall Street scrambling for the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar and 10-Year Treasury Bonds (1.89). The Euro sank to an 11 month low against the US Dollar, breaching the key $1.30 level for the first time in nearly a year. Dollar-denominated commodities like crude and gold (NYSE:GLD) tumbled.

Gold prices continued their precipitous fall, dropping sharply in morning trade. The yellow metal fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since January 2009. Previous dips below the key metric often have been positive for gold. Over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year, the price of gold has averaged gains with positive returns two thirds of the time. While gold saw negative returns in the three, six, and twelve months following the end of its 1980 and 1988 streaks, following the four remaining streaks the close below the 200-DMA turned out to be a pause that refreshed for gold. Short Gold (NYSE:DZZ)

Target $1400

Here’s a post from August 11th 2011 here

The price of US crude fell below $96 a barrel and could have much more room to drop should the global economic slowdown continue, despite actions by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC’s decision to raise the official target for the cartel’s output to close to the current level of production probably had little impact.   Short Oil (NYSE:SCO)

Target $85

Here’s a post from June 16th 2011 here

In Europe, an auction of Italian sovereign debt saw the euro zone’s third-largest economy pay a euro era record yield of 6.47 percent to sell five-year paper. The sale came after the EU tried to move towards greater fiscal integration at last week’s summit, adding to investor concerns. The National Bank of Greece has indicated it will seek shareholders’ approval for a 1 billion-euro government bailout, sending its shares sharply higher.

Greece Hits 113% 5 Year CDS Rates

Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

It’s becoming more and more apparent that Greece is getting the boot from investors and public markets as the 5 Year CDS rates hit unimaginable rate of 113%. This is in extraordinary circumstances if Greece were borrowing from public markets, but luckily they are being funded by the ECB and IMF. This leads me to suggest Greece will get the boot from the EU and be made an example of. The must be done to set the precedence of the future stability of the Euro and Euro-zone. Drachmas must begin to be recirculated to support the economy. It has created many citizens to migrate across borders while creating  pain and suffering amongst the people. The price for remaining bound to the single currency will be more hardship and sacrifice.  Current rumor has it that a growing number of legal and financial experts are examining in detail what would happen if Greece abandoned the euro.

It would be Europe’s worst nightmare: after weeks of rumors, one day the Prime Minister of Greece will tell the World that they are leavinG the Euro. The danger that Greece or some other deeply damaged country in the euro zone could leave the single-currency union can no longer be ruled out. And it was largely this prospect that drove leaders last week to agree to adopt strict fiscal rules that they hope will wrap the 17 European Union nations that use the euro into an even tighter embrace.

The monetary union have refused to discuss in public the possibility of member states abandoning the euro — a contingency not even addressed in any of the treaties governing the monetary union. As Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, put it last week: “It would be imprudent to create contingency plans when we see no likelihood that they could happen.”

Over the last year, Greeks have withdrawn almost 40 billion euros, or nearly $53 billion, in deposits from their banking system, equal to about 17 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. A total of 14 billion euros in deposits was withdrawn in September and October alone. According to testimony by Georgios A. Provopoulos, the head of the Greek central bank, before a parliamentary committee last month, this outflow continued in early November “at a very large scale.”

About the Drachma Here

Below is the research of Landon Thomas, Jr.  of  The New York Times

Over the last month Nomura and UBS have come out with detailed studies on the topic. Nomura forecast a 60 percent devaluation of the new drachma. UBS went further, warning of hyperinflation, military coups and possible civil war that could afflict a departing country.

One of the more detailed studies comes from Eric Dor, an economist at the Iéseg School of Management in Lille, France. In “Leaving the Eurozone: A User’s Guide,” Mr. Dor starts with the obvious: any return to the drachma would have to be preceded by an immediate freeze on bank deposits. To prevent panicked Greeks from sending the rest of their deposits abroad, transfers to countries outside of Greece would be halted. As the new currency inevitably lost value, new drachma accounts would remain frozen. Shops would be required to accept scrip or devalued euros circulating only within Greece until the country’s bank note printer, operated by the central bank, could churn out enough drachmas to replace the 200 billion euros in cash and deposits currently in Greece. Meanwhile, Greece would become a financial pariah. Visitors would find Greece a paradise of bargains, but for most Greeks themselves, travel would become prohibitively expensive.

One person who does think a Greek exit will happen is Charles Proctor, a British lawyer who has studied the legal intricacies of leaving the euro zone. “I think there has to be a recognition that a single currency does not suit a vast range of economies,” Mr. Proctor said. “And that some member economies must depart in order to get their economic houses in order.” Like others, he points to the fact that there is no explicit clause in European treaties that allows for an easy departure, either forced or voluntary. While 10 European Union countries do not use the euro, a disorderly exit would almost certainly mean that Greece would have to leave the union as well. Mr. Proctor also takes on the thorny issue of what would happen to the investor holding a Greek bond that is governed by domestic law, as more than 90 percent of Greek bonds are. Most likely, he concludes, the result would be default as investors would not accept interest and principal payments in devalued drachmas. While this would certainly hurt European banks, the European Central Bank, which owns around 60 billion euros or so of Greek bonds, would suffer the most. Unless the International Monetary Fund agreed to help, Greece would be unable to borrow from abroad. On the plus side, with a cheap currency and restored control of its monetary policy, Greece’s chances of returning to growth might improve drastically.

While their numbers remain small, some Greek economists say that this is the only way to address the country’s persistent inability to balance its trade. Theodore Mariolis, an economist at Panteion University in Athens, argues that a devaluation of 50 percent or more could close Greece’s trade gap without sending inflation soaring — an outcome that many economists might regard as too good to be true.

But whether that provides a long-run solution for a country that has failed to improve its competitiveness is questionable. And the biggest problem for Greece if it returns to the drachma, says Hal S. Scott, an expert on international finance at Harvard Law School, would be persuading Greeks to believe in and hold an ever weakening drachma when a much stronger euro would be so readily available. This constant selling pressure would make a devaluation all the more extreme, raising the threat of hyperinflation. “The devaluation issue is the most serious part,” Mr. Scott said. “I just do not see how you deal with it.”

Euro Hope Lifts Stocks

Monday, December 5th, 2011

Up 5.2% year-to-date, the Dow Jones Industrial Averageadded 145.90 points, or 1.4%, to 12,165.32, with banks leading the gains. The S&P is up 1.5% YTD but remains just shy of  breaking the 1260; 200 day MA resistance. Leaders of Germany and France called for a new treaty to address the euro area’s debt troubles, U.S. stocks rallied on hope. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for another European Union accord to establish firmer rules for euro-region governments. Now, the big challenge will be to put everything on paper and to convince the European partners.

 In a joint news conference following a meeting in Paris, Sarkozy said leaders would use a summit meeting of the European Union’s 27 leaders on Friday to see if the treaty could win quick approval across the EU or just within the euro area. The leaders want the treaty in place by March. Sarkozy and Merkel both rejected the idea of euro-zone government bonds as a solution to the crisis and said they would call for bringing forward the launch of the euro zone’s permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, by one year to 2012.

The plan, which will serve as the basis for discussions at Friday’s closely-watched summit of EU leaders, would require members to add a balanced-budget “golden rule” to their constitutions. The European Court of Justice would be responsible for assuring that those amendments would be effective. The court would also enforce sanctions but wouldn’t have authority to veto national budgets — a move analysts said appears to be a concession to Sarkozy, who had fought against ceding fiscal sovereignty to Brussels.

More importantly, the outright yield on Italian and Spanish government debt continued to fall sharply, cutting the premium investors demand to hold peripheral euro-zone government debt over German bonds. Yields fall as bond prices rise. The yield on 10-year Italian government bonds which had flirted uncomfortably with the 8% level early last week slipped below the 6% level. The yield was seen at 5.99% in recent action, down 57 basis points.

Italy on Sunday unveiled a 30 billion euro ($40.2 billion) plan to cut its deficit and enact growth-enhancing measures over the next three years in an attempt to convince investors it can get a grip on the euro zone’s second-largest debt burden. Hopes of a constructive outcome from this week’s EU heads-of-state summit and a well-received austerity package in Italy have lifted [the euro] and risk appetite overnight.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is traveling to Europe this week to urge top officials to take action on the crisis. Geithner is set to meet Draghi and German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann in Frankfurt on Tuesday followed by talks with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin. Geithner will continue his travels Wednesday and Thursday, meeting with Sarkozy and French Finance Minister Francois Baroin; Spain’s Prime Minister-elect Mariano Rajoy; and Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti. The efforts come as data reinforced worries over a potential euro-zone recession. A final reading of the November euro-zone purchasing managers index on Monday showed Germany had joined France, Italy and Spain in suffering a contraction in private-sector activity.

Now, the big challenge will be to put everything on paper and to convince the European partners.

Did The Central Banks Just Saved The World

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

World markets are massively short covering their positions after an announcement this morning at 8 AM EST, that the coordinated action by central banks around the world will provide more liquidity to the global financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve, after a similar effort in September, will “lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points.” Wednesday’s move from the Fed was matched by corresponding actions from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. The new pricing applies to operations conducted as of Dec. 5, and the authorization of the swap arrangements has been extended to Feb. 13. What does this mean? Does the signal that the financial markets were really beginning to dry up with interbank lending. Was the European debt crisis beginning to unravel for the worse with the German inactions? What does mean to the Dollar? —->Devaluation 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 415 points to 11,970, while the S&P 500 added 42 points to 1,237. The victim of the surge was the dollar, which stumbled on the central banks’ latest move to flood the market with more greenbacks. The euro climbed to $1.3487, from $1.3315 Tuesday. In my opinion policymakers are buying time for the Euro Zone to changes treaties and most likely drastically change the structure of the common currency (and yes, definitely kick a few members out). They also must find a way to rescue the banks and inject additional liquidity similar to the US TARP. The underlining problem remains the monstrous debt held.

While the effort to provide more liquidity may temporarily soothe the symptoms of Europe’s debt crisis and allow financial institutions easier access to funding, it does little to address the underlying roots of overburdened governments that need to be propped up while they drastically cut spending. 

The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) announced new leverage tools geared at increasing its lending capacity on Wednesday, but it still remains to be seen where the additional financing will come from for the public-private special purpose vehicles the EFSF intends to use to provide funding to sovereign governments through primary and secondary bond market purchases. That funding could in turn be used to recapitalize European banks that are at risk of crumbling due to their exposure to the region’s shaky credits. Those concerns took a backseat Wednesday morning though, as equities rallied and bond yields in at-risk countries like Italy and Spain held fairly steady.

China also gave the market a helping hand Wednesday, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for its banks in a bid to jumpstart an economy that has slowed from its torrid pace and fueled concerns about a hard landing that could threaten precarious global growth.

Here’s a statement from the FOMC website.

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity. 

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorized through February 1, 2013.

Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized an extension of the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank through February 1, 2013. The rate on these swap arrangements has been reduced from the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 100 basis points to the OIS rate plus 50 basis points. In addition, as a contingency measure, the Federal Open Market Committee has agreed to establish similar temporary swap arrangements with these five central banks to provide liquidity in any of their currencies if necessary. Further details on the revised arrangements will be available shortly.

U.S. financial institutions currently do not face difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets. However, were conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Action

The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have agreed to extend the US $30 billion swap facility (reciprocal currency arrangement) through 1 February 2013 and adjust the pricing to the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 50 basis points. This swap facility was set to expire on 1 August 2012. The introduction of the expanded network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of Canada, should the need arise, to provide Canadian dollars to the other central banks, and to provide liquidity in Japanese yen, euros, U.K. pounds sterling, Swiss francs and U.S. dollars (via the existing U.S. dollar swap facility) to financial institutions in Canada. The Bank of Canada judges that it is not necessary for it to draw or offer operations on any of these swap facilities at this time, but that it is prudent to have these agreements in place. Should these facilities be drawn on, the details of the liquidity facilities provided would depend on the specific market circumstances at the time. The Bank of Canada continues to closely monitor developments in global financial markets and remains committed to providing liquidity as required to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the functioning of financial markets.

Bank of England Action

The introduction of the network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of England to provide sterling to the other central banks if required, as well as enabling the Bank of England to provide liquidity, should it be needed, in Japanese yen, euro, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in U.S. dollars). The Bank will continue its weekly tenders of U.S. dollar funding at fixed interest rates each Wednesday until further notice, with counterparties able to borrow unlimited amounts against eligible collateral. The rate at which tenders are conducted will be reduced to OIS+50bps (from OIS+100bps) beginning with the next weekly tender on 7 December. The three-month tender scheduled for 7 December and subsequent three-month tenders will also be conducted at OIS+50bps. In the U.S. dollar repo operations, counterparties are permitted to borrow any amount against eligible collateral.

European Central Bank Decision

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in co-operation with other central banks the establishment of a temporary network of reciprocal swap lines.  This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars). The ECB will regularly conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately one week and three months at the new pricing. The schedule for these operations, which will take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, will be published today on the ECB’s website.

In addition, the initial margin for three-month US dollar operations will be reduced from currently 20% to 12% and weekly updates of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be introduced in order to carry out margin calls. Those changes will be effective as of the operations to be conducted on 7 December 2011. Further details about the operations will be made available in the respective modified tender procedure via the ECB’s Website.

Frequently Asked Questions: Foreign Currency Liquidity Swaps

What is the purpose of the foreign currency liquidity swap lines? 

The foreign currency liquidity swap lines are designed to provide the Federal Reserve with the capacity to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions should the Federal Reserve judge that such actions are appropriate.

Which central banks are participating in these arrangements?

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized arrangements between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. In addition, these foreign central banks are also establishing bilateral swap arrangements with one another.

Why are these swap lines being implemented?

These swap lines are being implemented as a contingency measure, so that central banks can offer liquidity in foreign currencies if market conditions warrant such actions. These lines provide the Federal Reserve with the same ability to provide foreign currency, should the need arise, as foreign central banks currently have through the existing dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve to provide dollar liquidity in their jurisdictions.

Why is the Federal Reserve establishing lines for these five currencies and with these five central banks? 

These five currencies are used globally and account for the bulk of the foreign currency funding of U.S. financial institutions.

In what manner would foreign currency liquidity be provided?

There has not been a decision to activate the foreign currency liquidity facilities. If the Federal Reserve were to decide to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions, the details of the operations would be determined at that time in light of the prevailing circumstances.

Will activity under the liquidity swap arrangements be disclosed to the public? 

Yes, the aggregate swap activity in each currency with foreign central banks will be published weekly. They will be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Foreign Exchange Swap Agreement webpage . In addition, any liquidity-supplying operations in foreign currencies would be subject to the same disclosure requirements as the Federal Reserve’s dollar-based activities.

For how long are the swap arrangements expected to be in place?

These swap arrangements, along with the existing U.S. dollar swap arrangements, have been authorized through February 1, 2013.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from May 2010

Why has the Federal Reserve re-established temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities with foreign central banks? 

The swap facilities announced in May 2010 respond to the re-emergence of strains in short term funding markets in Europe. They are designed to improve liquidity conditions in global money markets and to minimize the risk that strains abroad could spread to U.S. markets, by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions.

With which central banks has the Federal Reserve entered into swap facilities? 

The Federal Reserve has established swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

How do the swap facilities function? 

The swap lines with the ECB, BOE, SNB and BOJ provide these central banks with the capacity to conduct tenders of U.S. dollars in their local markets at fixed local rates for full allotment, similar to arrangements that had been in place previously. The swap line with the Bank of Canada allows for drawings of up to $30 billion. The terms, structure, and operational mechanics of these swap agreements closely parallel the arrangements that expired on February 1, 2010.

For how long are the swap facilities expected to be operational? 

These swap arrangements have been authorized through February 1, 2013. Central banks may request drawings on their swap lines up to the date of expiration.

Is the Federal Reserve exposed to foreign exchange or private bank risk in extending these lines? 

No. Dollars provided through the reciprocal currency swaps are provided by the Federal Reserve to foreign central banks, not to the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central bank receiving dollars determines the terms on which it will lend dollars onward to institutions in its jurisdiction, including how the foreign central bank will allocate dollar funds to financial institutions, which institutions are eligible to borrow, and what types of collateral they may borrow against. The terms governing these loans of dollars are in all cases released to the public by the foreign central banks. As the Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship is exclusively with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations, the Federal Reserve does not assume the credit risk associated with lending to financial institutions based in these foreign jurisdictions. The provision of dollars and receipt of foreign currency, and the receipt of dollars and return of foreign currency at the swap’s maturity date, both occur at the same foreign exchange rate so that the Federal Reserve is not exposed to movements in foreign exchange rates.

Is activity under the liquidity swap arrangements disclosed to the public? 

Yes, swap activity is published weekly. The Federal Reserve has also released the underlying legal agreements with foreign central banks.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from December 2007 to February 2010

What was the purpose of the dollar liquidity swap lines?

The dollar liquidity swap lines were designed to improve liquidity conditions in U.S. and foreign financial markets by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions during times of market stress.

What circumstances led to the implementation of these facilities?

The swap arrangements were introduced to address stresses in U.S. dollar funding in overseas markets. These difficulties were adding materially to pressures in funding and credit markets in the United States and abroad.

Who authorized the use of the swaps?

The arrangements were authorized by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System and the policy boards or executives of the respective foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve had the right to approve or deny requests by foreign central banks to draw on their swap lines. The FOMC authorized these arrangements through February 1, 2010. The foreign central banks could request draws on their swap lines up to that date.

Which central banks could engage in swaps?

The Federal Reserve established swap arrangements with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank.

How were the swaps structured?

The Federal Reserve provided U.S. dollars to a foreign central bank. At the same time, the foreign central bank provided the equivalent amount of funds in its currency to the Federal Reserve, based on the market exchange rate at the time of the transaction. The parties agreed to swap back these quantities of their two currencies at a specified date in the future, which was the next day or as far ahead as three months, using the same exchange rate as in the first transaction. Because the terms of this second transaction were set in advance, fluctuations in exchange rates during the interim did not alter the eventual payments. Accordingly, these swap operations carried no exchange rate or other market risks.

How did foreign central banks distribute the U.S. dollar funding they received through these swaps?

The foreign central banks distributed the U.S. dollars they drew through a variety of methods, including variable-rate tenders, fixed-rate tenders, bilateral transactions, and foreign exchange swap tenders against various types of collateral, including both foreign currency and securities denominated in foreign currency. In each case, the arrangement was between the foreign central bank and the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central banks determined the acceptability of the collateral offered and the eligibility of the institutions to participate in the operations they conducted. The terms on which funds were tendered were released to the public by the foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship was with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations.

What revenues and costs arose for the Federal Reserve?

When a foreign central bank drew on its swap line to fund its dollar tender operations, it paid interest to the Federal Reserve in an amount equal to the interest the foreign central bank earned on its tender operations. For its part, the Federal Reserve did not pay interest and committed to hold the foreign currency that it acquired in the swap transaction at the foreign central bank (rather than lending it or investing it in private markets). The structure of the arrangement served to avoid domestic currency reserve management difficulties for foreign central banks that could have arisen if the Federal Reserve had actively invested the foreign currency holdings in the marketplace.

What was the impact of swaps on U.S. monetary operations?

The drawing of U.S. dollars by a foreign central bank resulted in an increase in the level of reserve balances held at the Reserve Banks. Similarly, the repayment of U.S. dollars to the Federal Reserve when a swap was unwound resulted in a drain of these balances.

AMR Bankruptcy, UK Austerity & US Housing Doldrums

Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

American Airlines’ parent company, AMR Corp., announced Tuesday that it has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. Britain’s coalition government unveiled sharply lower economic growth forecasts on Tuesday and said it would take much longer than hoped to wipe out its deficit, meaning tough austerity measures would extend beyond the next election due in 2015. Italy’s borrowing costs soared again at a debt auction Tuesday, adding to the pressure on European officials gathering in Brussels for their latest attempt at easing the crisis in the euro area. U.S. single-family home prices declined in September. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.6 percent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

AMR Bankruptcy

American has been widely seen as the weakest of the major airlines for some time now. It has reported a profit in only one quarter since 2007, and it lost $4.8 billion over those 3-1/2 years. AMR said American Airlines, American Eagle and all other subsidiaries will honor all tickets and reservations and operate normal flight schedules during the bankruptcy filing process, using its $4.1 billion in cash. ”Our very substantial cost disadvantage compared to our larger competitors, all of which restructured their costs and debt through Chapter 11, has become increasingly untenable,” said the airline’s statement. The airline also announced that Gerard Arpey, its chairman and CEO, is retiring. He is being succeeded by Thomas Horton, who was named president of the company in July 2010. The airline said that a bankruptcy reorganization is necessary to give it the competitive cost structure it needs and return to profitability. It signaled that it may try to use the bankruptcy process to force lower-cost contracts on its unions. The airline even announced a massive order for 460 jets from Boeing (BA) and Airbus in July in an effort to modernize its fleet. American was the world’s largest air carrier as recently as 2006. But mergers have dropped it to third in terms of miles flown by paying passengers, behind United Continental (UAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) Before Tuesday’s filing, American and Southwest (LUV) were the only major U.S. airlines that had not filed for bankruptcy reorganization. Shares of AMR (AMR,)which had already plunged nearly 80% since the start of the year through Monday’s close, tumbled another 63% to 60 cents a share in pre-market trading. Shareholders are typically wiped out during the bankruptcy process.

UK To Continue Austerity and May Fall Into a Recession

Finance Minister George Osborne, in one of two major annual economic setpieces, warned the British economy risked getting dragged into recession if the euro zone debt crisis was not solved. “If the rest of Europe heads into recession it may prove hard to avoid one here in the UK,” he told parliament. ”Much of Europe appears to be heading into recession caused by a chronic lack of confidence in the ability of countries to deal with their debts. We will do whatever it takes to protect Britain from this debt storm while doing all we can to build the foundations of future growth,” he said. The economy was now forecast to grow by only 0.7 percent next year, way below a March budget forecast of 2.5 percent, Osborne said, presenting figures from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR expects the economy to shrink by 0.1 percent in the last three months of this year. Growth was expected to recover to 2.1 percent in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 2.9 percent, before accelerating to 3.0 percent by 2015.

Osborne said pay rises for public sector workers would be capped at one percent once a two-year pay freeze ends in 2013. Borrowing will fall much less than expected because of slower growth, erasing any margin for error in the government’s plan to erase the structural deficit within five years. The coalition has made erasing a deficit that peaked at 11 percent of national output its priority. Opposition Labour said its strategy had been blown way off course. Labour finance spokesman Ed Balls accused Osborne of a catastrophic error of judgment. Center-left Labour, ousted from power in May 2010, says the coalition is squeezing the life out of the economy by cutting too much and too quickly.

The OECD rich nations’ economic think-tank said on Monday that Britain will slip back into a modest recession early next year. It lowered its 2012 growth forecast to just 0.5 percent and urged the Bank of England to expand its money-printing program. The near-term forecasts are broadly similar to our own but I think the long-term forecasts — out to 2016 — are very optimistic given that fiscal restraints will continue for quite some time and the uncertainty created by the euro zone crisis. The Bank of England will pump an additional 75 billion pounds into the economy in coming months, a Reuters poll indicated on Tuesday, taking the total to 350 billion as it tries to revitalize growth. “The UK is partway through a ‘lost decade’, and I expect that 2012 will be another difficult year,” said Michael Saunders at Citi, who expects the total BoE spend to be at least 500 billion pounds — the highest forecast in the poll.

Recognizing that he has little scope to alter Britain’s short-term economic prospects, Osborne focused on measures that will boost growth in the longer term, such as promoting lending to small businesses and encouraging private sector investment in infrastructure. He plans to tap British pension funds to provide the bulk of up to 30 billion pounds of investment in building projects, while the government will underwrite up to 40 billion pounds of loans to smaller companies struggling for credit.

US Housing Doldrums Remain

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 0.6 percent from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. A Reuters poll of economists had forecast no change. With each passing year, the former Oracle of the Fed, Alan Greenspan, is reminded that there really was a housing bubble and lowering interest rates to record lows just made matters worse.  Nearly four years after the housing market peak in 2007, record low mortgage rates are no match for falling incomes and 9% unemployment.

U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. Home prices are down 3.9% across the board and are now back to their first quarter of 2003 levels. The market consensus was for a 3% decline year over year. From August to September, housing prices have fallen the most in Atlanta, with a 5.9% decline, followed by Tampa Bay and San Francisco, both with a 1.5% drop in housing prices. Boston, New York, Washington and Los Angeles remain the most expensive cities in the lower 48 states.

The number of U.S. homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages decreased modestly in the third quarter, though levels remained high, data analysis company CoreLogic said Tuesday. The number of properties with so-called negative equity — in which the amount owed on the mortgage exceeds the property’s value — was 10.7 million, or 22.1 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage. That is a slight decrease from 10.9 million, or 22.5 percent, in the second quarter, CoreLogic said. An additional 2.4 million borrowers fell into the near-negative equity camp in the third quarter, defined as those less than 5 percent equity. Hard-hit Nevada had the highest underwater rate with 58.3 percent of mortgages upside down. The top five was rounded out by Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Georgia.

Italian Debt Financing Reaches An All Time High

The Italian treasury sold €7.5 billion of bonds, including three-year bonds at a yield of 7.89 percent, meeting demand for 1.5 times the amount on auction. At an evening session, euro-zone ministers were hoping to nail down guidelines on how to expand the European Financial Stability Facility, the main bailout fund for heavily indebted euro-zone countries. Such a step could in theory make it possible for the fund to begin buying government bonds on a large scale by early next year. The ministers were also expected to approve the release of an €8 billion, or $10.7 billion, loan to Greece — the latest installment in its international rescue package.

Italy’s budget deficit is not huge in comparison with other developed nations, but its debt is among the world’s largest. Considering the burden of repaying that debt, interest rates of that magnitude will not be long sustainable. The auction was held as the lower house of the Italian Parliament was preparing balanced-budget legislation, a key measure for convincing investors and euro-zone partners of its commitment to reeling in its public debt.

Also on Tuesday, Belgium sold €502 million of three-month Treasury bills at an average yield of 2.19 percent, up from the 1.58 percent it paid just two weeks ago. Demand rose to 5.61 times the amount sold from 1.45 times at the previous auction. It also sold €513 million of six-month bills at an average yield of 2.44 percent, more than double the 1.09 percent on Nov. 8. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.76, up from 1.85 times in the prior auction. Belgian borrowing costs rose after Standard & Poor’s on Friday cut its rating on the country’s sovereign debt to AA from AA-plus. In addition to the turmoil that is shaking all the euro-zone countries, the agency cited Belgian’s peculiar problems, which include the fact that it has been without an elected government for the past 19 months, as well as the cost of bailing out Dexia, the French-Belgian bank that last month became the first European bank to be partially nationalized amid the euro crisis.

European ministers Tuesday were planning to address an expansion of their bailout fund, which was meant to raise money by issuing bonds backed by the stronger European countries and loan it to shakier countries facing high interest rates on their debt. It now also plans to offer insurance of up to 30 percent to investors in some European bonds to encourage them to buy.

Debt Contagion Is Spreading

Monday, November 21st, 2011

Major indices plunged more than 2 percent, with financials and energy leading the way lower in the holiday-shortened trading week. This morning, there are more problems coming out of the European Union. Not only are yields spiking higher in European debt, but there are possible downgrades coming in France. Moody’s has warned that France could lose it’s AAA credit rating if the French 10 year bond yield spikes higher. Germany is also resisting the sale of Euro-bonds which will need all 17 countries in the EU to approve. The S&P is decidedly lower by 28.00 points to 1187. Expect continued volatility throughout the trading day. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said he doubted the survival of the European single currency, while the Spanish government fell in a weekend election.

After suffering through a miserable week fueled by worries that the eurozone crisis was spreading from troubled nations like Greece and Italy into healthier ones such as Spain, investors continued to pull money off the table amid the political woes in Washington. A 12-member supercommittee tasked with cutting $1.2 trillion from the $15 trillion national debt stumbled towards its Wednesday deadline, with leaders on both sides of the aisle expressing pessimism that Monday would bring a deal. Today is essentially the deadline for a proposal, which would need 48 hours of congressional review before a vote.

That contributed to fears that recession is coming closer to reality for Europe, and the contagion is spreading. Europe is now facing a credit crunch of rather large proportions, and this is also why the recession is likely to be more likely. The crisis in the euro zone has exposed the flaws of the 17-member currency union, and its leaders will need to take urgent action if they want the euro to survive, Buffett told CNBC on Monday. Buffett added there was “doubt now” as to whether the euro would survive the current crisis.

ECB – Draghi Reverses Trichet’s Rates

Thursday, November 3rd, 2011

Draghi succeeded France’s Jean-Claude Trichet as ECB chief on Tuesday—a day that saw the ECB buy Spanish and Italian bonds but barely manage to cap a rise in yields on the debt of the euro zone’s third largest economy. The European Central Bank cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent on Thursday as the euro zone’s worsening debt crisis outweighed the concern over persistently high inflation. The ECB also reduced the interest rate on its deposit facility to 0.5 percent and the rate on the marginal lending facility to 2.0 percent. The cut marked a change in policy course after the ECB increased its rates in July and April, when it became the first major central bank to hike after the intensification of the financial crisis. Markets since the announcement come off their lows.

Stocks rallied at the open after the ECB unexpectedly cut its interest rate and amid hopes that Greece can avoid a referendum on a euro zone bailout package. New ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro zone could see “slow growth heading towards a mild recession” by year-end. “A significant downward revision to forecasts and projections for average real GDP growth in 2012 (are) very likely,” he added.

Investors should brace themselves for a “extremely volatile” trading for the rest of the week. Friday is a confidence vote in Greece. Opposition politicians are now calling for him to step down and for a new coalition government to be formed, before early elections.

Will The Greeks Return To The Drachma

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

Drachma (until 2002)) was the currency used in Greece during several periods in its history. Three modern Greek currencies, the first introduced in 1832 and the last replaced by the euro in 2001 (at the rate of 340.750 drachma to the euro). The euro did not begin circulating until 2002 but the exchange rate was fixed on 19 June 2000, with legal introduction of the euro taking place in January 2002. Greece populous is growing support with rumor that the return of the Drachma may be in favor to help Greece of it’s debt. Is the true?

In 1953, in an effort to halt inflation, Greece joined the Bretton Woods system. In 1954, the drachma was revalued at a rate of 1000 to 1. The new currency was pegged at 30 drachmae = 1 United States dollar. In 1973, the Bretton Woods System was abolished; over the next 25 years the official exchange rate gradually declined, reaching 400 drachmae to 1 U. S. dollar. On January 1, 2002, the Greek drachma was officially replaced as the circulating currency by the euro.

In a editorial by Landon Thomas Jr. in the New York Times issued this morning discussed the time to ponder the once unthinkable: that Greece might end its 10-year use of the euro and return to its former currency, the drachma.

Such a move is still officially anathema in Athens. But a growing body of economists argues that it would be the best course, whatever the near-term financial and economic implications. And now, with a referendum on the European-led bailout facing Greek voters, a vocal minority that has long called for a return to the drachma might find itself with a growing group of listeners.

A return to the drachma is unlikely to offer a quick cure for Greece’s ills. Default on the nation’s $500 billion in public debt would become a certainty, depositors would take their money out of local banks and, with a sharp devaluation of as much as 50 percent, inflation would loom. A return to the international credit markets would take years.

But drachma defenders contend that these worst fears are overdone. Yes, there would be disruption and panic initially. But, they say, pointing to Argentina’s case when it broke its peg with the dollar in 2002, the export boom ignited by a cheaper currency and the ability to control the drachma would eventually work in Greece’s favor.

“The real problem is that we are operating under a foreign currency,” Vasilis Serafeimakis, a senior executive at Avinoil, one of Greece’s largest oil and gas distribution companies, said of the euro. In the last year, he has been banging the bring-back-the-drachma drum.

“If we had our own currency, we could at least print money,” Mr. Serafeimakis said, referring to the ability to revalue the drachma. “And what is the worst thing that happens if we do this? I don’t get a Christmas gift from one of my bankers.”

According to a recent poll in the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, 66 percent of Greeks believe that returning to the drachma would be bad. But proponents of a euro exit say that beneath the surface, more Greeks are beginning to question the euro.

“The view that Greece should exit the euro is more widespread than you would think,” said Costas Lapavitsas, a Greek economist at the University of London who has long pressed for a return to the drachma. “It is just that the opposing view is so dominant.”

Until now, many Greeks have been wedded to a European identity forged by a national embrace of the euro and the wealth that, for a time, came along with it. Talk of returning to the drachma had mainly been held up as an apocalyptic vision rather than a viable policy option.

But for a growing number of Greeks, the collapse of their economy is apocalypse enough.

Prime Minister George A. Papandreou threw down the gauntlet to the Greek people Monday when he surprised the world by announcing a referendum on the latest bailout plan. But it was his finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, who that same day put a finer point on the question.

“Are we for Europe, the euro zone and the euro?” he asked. Or, he continued, does Greece return to the drachma?

Under the latest bailout plan from Europe, Greek debt held by private institutions would be written down by 50 percent. In return, as long as Greece stayed on track carrying out painful austerity measures through 2015, Athens would continue to receive more bailout money to finance its remaining debt.

When Mr. Papandreou brought that tentative deal back from Brussels last week, the escalated protests and rioting on Greek streets were a sign that it was not something his people would easily stand for.

Supporters of a return to the drachma note that the severe budget cuts of the last two years had resulted in almost closing the budget deficit — as long as interest payments on its debt are not counted.

Stripping out interest payments, Greece is expected to register a budget surplus next year of 1.5 percent of its gross domestic product (compared with a budget deficit of 8 percent of G.D.P., when interest is counted), and that, in effect, would give it the freedom to stop paying its debts.

It is an argument for defaulting on the debt and starting over, in other words. That sense of reborn autonomy is what lies behind the drachma movement that Mr. Serafeimakis is promoting.

For more than a year, he has been educating himself about the euro. He has pestered economists and written passionate posts on obscure blogs, convinced that the benefits from a devaluation of Greek’s currency, while no doubt painful, would result in a return to growth more quickly than further wage cuts and layoffs.

Outside the country, meantime, many prominent voices have argued for more than a year that it is impossible for Greece to regain competitiveness while clinging to the euro currency. They include prominent economists like Nouriel Roubini, Kenneth S. Rogoff and Martin Feldstein, as well as the investor George Soros.

Now, a small but growing band of Greek economists, none of them very well known, is beginning to ask the same question: namely, whether the benefit of having a cheap currency under Greek control would outweigh the costs of defaulting on its debt and abandoning the euro.

In a recent paper, Stergios Skaperdas, a Greek economist at the University of California, Irvine, argued that a cheaper drachma would stem imports, bolster exports and, crucially, give Greece the flexibility to control its own monetary policy and ease the effects of fiscal retrenchment.

Mr. Skaperdas conceded that getting this view across remained a difficult one as many Greeks found it troubling to accept that their euro dream might be over.

“For most Greeks, including economists, adopting the euro was like marrying a dream spouse — beautiful, intelligent, caring, even rich,” he said. “And then, rather suddenly, the marriage turned into a nightmare.”

A euro divorce would carry substantial costs, most profoundly an immediate run on Greek banks. That is why mainstream Greek economists insist that there will be no such outcome.

“There is no way that Greece leaves the euro — this will take us back many years,” said Yannis Stournaras, an influential economist in Athens who has advised past governments. “We would have a disorderly default, the debt would double — it is out of the question.”

But in a recent study, Theodore Mariolis, an economist at Panteion University in Athens, argued that the No. 1 problem for Greece under the current system — ahead of debt sustainability, unemployment and the problems of a mismanaged public sector — was its international competitiveness, which he said had declined 30 percent since the country embraced the euro.

Mr. Mariolis estimated that a 50 percent devaluation of the new drachma would soon erase this competitiveness gap.

The views of Mr. Mariolis and Mr. Skaperdas have remained within the narrow confines of academia. Other economists, like Theodore Katsanevas, have taken a more aggressive approach by pushing their drachma solution on Greek television.

“A Greek hotel room is two times as expensive as one in Turkey,” he said, ridiculing the notion that the steep wage cuts and public sector firings that are being demanded by Europe and the International Monetary Fund would restore competitiveness. “We are almost dead now — what we need is a resurrection.”

In many ways, the drachma’s most passionate and well-known local proponent is also its most controversial.

For the last two years, the media magnate George Kouris has used his flagship tabloid, Avriani, to run a relentless campaign that argues Greece is best off leaving the euro for the drachma.

Mr. Kouris, owner of the country’s leading evening news channel, is a die-hard opponent of Mr. Papandreou, and he has been accused of pushing the drachma as a means to wipe out his group’s significant euro debts, a charge he denies.

But he is insistent that the only way forward is for Greece to return to an earlier time.

“The people who now support the euro are the people that put us into it and made us a sick country,” he said. “Before the euro, a bottle of water was 0.50 drachmas. Now it’s 1.70 euros. It is a tragedy.”