Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

US Futures Drop After GDP; 2012 Growth Caution

Friday, January 27th, 2012

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter, but a strong rebuilding of stocks by businesses and weak spending on capital goods hinted at slower growth in early 2012. U.S. stock index futures retreated Friday, erasing their early gains after the report. U.S. GDP expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, but the figure was still slightly below expectations for a 3.0 percent gain. An to continue to rumorville, European stocks were earlier buoyed by comments made by European economic affairs chief Ollie Rehn who said a deal on reducing Greece’s private sector debt is imminent and should be completed by the end of January at the latest.

Growth in the fourth quarter got a temporary boost from the rebuilding of business inventories, which was the fastest since the third quarter of 2010, after they declined in the third-quarter for the first time since late 2009. Inventories increased $56.0 billion, adding 1.94 percentage points to GDP growth. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a tepid 0.8 percent rate, a sharp step-down from the prior period’s 3.2 percent pace. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, stepped to a 2 percent rate from the third-quarter’s 1.7 percent pace – largely driven by pent-up demand for motor vehicles. The robust stock accumulation suggest the recovery will lose a step in early 2012. Also pointing to slower growth, business spending on capital goods was the slowest since 2009, a sign the debt crisis in Europe was starting to take its toll. Expectations of soft growth led the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to say it expected to keep interest rates at rock bottom levels at least through late 2014. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank, which forecast growth this year in a 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent range, was mulling further asset purchases to speed up the recovery. The Fed warned the economy still faced big risks, a suggestion the euro zone debt crisis could still hit hard. The Fed is attempting to shield the economy from a potentially more severe recession in Europe. 

About 23.7 million Americans are either out of work or underemployed. The shrinking labor force suggests the economy’s long-term growth potential has slipped below 2.5 percent. A sustained growth pace of at least 3 percent would likely be needed to make noticeable headway in absorbing the unemployed and those who have given up the search for work.

Treasury Remarks

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the World Economic Forum in Davos the U.S. economy still faced big challenges. “We’re still repairing the damage done by the financial crisis. On top of that we face a more challenging world. We have a lot of challenges ahead in the United States”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner hinted Friday that the Obama administration could support an increase in resources for the International Monetary Fund to fight the euro crisis, and also sounded a note of cautious optimism on the U.S. economy. The U.S. could support an increase in IMF resources, but only if Europe puts more of its own money on the line first, he said in a public question-and-answer session at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Mr. Geithner said he could envision the IMF doing more to support European efforts to contain its debt crisis, “but it cannot substitute” for a lack of commitment from Europe. He said that European governments themselves accept this fact. The IMF is seeking as much as $500 billion in new money for loans in coming years to countries that run into trouble paying their bills or to ease concerns about volatility in the bond markets. Already the IMF is contributing to bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Week of January 30th

MONDAY: Personal income & spending, Dallas Fed mfg survey
TUESDAY: Employment cost index, S&P Case-Shiller home price index, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, Florida GOP Primary vote; Earnings from ExxonMobil, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, UPS, Amazon.com, Broadcom
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications, Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, Fed’s Plosser speaks, ISM mfg index, construction spending, oil inventories, auto sales; Earnings from Aetna, Marathon Oil, Qualcomm, Electronic Arts
THURSDAY: Jobless claims, productivity and costs, Fed’s Fisher speaks, chain-store sales; Earnings from AstraZeneca, Deutsche Bank, Merck, Royal Dutch Shell, Sony, Unilever, beazer Homes
FRIDAY: Employment situation, factory orders, ISM non-mfg index; Earnings from Clorox

Did The Central Banks Just Saved The World

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

World markets are massively short covering their positions after an announcement this morning at 8 AM EST, that the coordinated action by central banks around the world will provide more liquidity to the global financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve, after a similar effort in September, will “lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points.” Wednesday’s move from the Fed was matched by corresponding actions from the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank. The new pricing applies to operations conducted as of Dec. 5, and the authorization of the swap arrangements has been extended to Feb. 13. What does this mean? Does the signal that the financial markets were really beginning to dry up with interbank lending. Was the European debt crisis beginning to unravel for the worse with the German inactions? What does mean to the Dollar? —->Devaluation 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 415 points to 11,970, while the S&P 500 added 42 points to 1,237. The victim of the surge was the dollar, which stumbled on the central banks’ latest move to flood the market with more greenbacks. The euro climbed to $1.3487, from $1.3315 Tuesday. In my opinion policymakers are buying time for the Euro Zone to changes treaties and most likely drastically change the structure of the common currency (and yes, definitely kick a few members out). They also must find a way to rescue the banks and inject additional liquidity similar to the US TARP. The underlining problem remains the monstrous debt held.

While the effort to provide more liquidity may temporarily soothe the symptoms of Europe’s debt crisis and allow financial institutions easier access to funding, it does little to address the underlying roots of overburdened governments that need to be propped up while they drastically cut spending. 

The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) announced new leverage tools geared at increasing its lending capacity on Wednesday, but it still remains to be seen where the additional financing will come from for the public-private special purpose vehicles the EFSF intends to use to provide funding to sovereign governments through primary and secondary bond market purchases. That funding could in turn be used to recapitalize European banks that are at risk of crumbling due to their exposure to the region’s shaky credits. Those concerns took a backseat Wednesday morning though, as equities rallied and bond yields in at-risk countries like Italy and Spain held fairly steady.

China also gave the market a helping hand Wednesday, cutting the reserve requirement ratio for its banks in a bid to jumpstart an economy that has slowed from its torrid pace and fueled concerns about a hard landing that could threaten precarious global growth.

Here’s a statement from the FOMC website.

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity. 

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from December 5, 2011. The authorization of these swap arrangements has been extended to February 1, 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorized through February 1, 2013.

Federal Reserve Actions
The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized an extension of the existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank through February 1, 2013. The rate on these swap arrangements has been reduced from the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 100 basis points to the OIS rate plus 50 basis points. In addition, as a contingency measure, the Federal Open Market Committee has agreed to establish similar temporary swap arrangements with these five central banks to provide liquidity in any of their currencies if necessary. Further details on the revised arrangements will be available shortly.

U.S. financial institutions currently do not face difficulty obtaining liquidity in short-term funding markets. However, were conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Action

The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve have agreed to extend the US $30 billion swap facility (reciprocal currency arrangement) through 1 February 2013 and adjust the pricing to the U.S. dollar OIS rate plus 50 basis points. This swap facility was set to expire on 1 August 2012. The introduction of the expanded network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of Canada, should the need arise, to provide Canadian dollars to the other central banks, and to provide liquidity in Japanese yen, euros, U.K. pounds sterling, Swiss francs and U.S. dollars (via the existing U.S. dollar swap facility) to financial institutions in Canada. The Bank of Canada judges that it is not necessary for it to draw or offer operations on any of these swap facilities at this time, but that it is prudent to have these agreements in place. Should these facilities be drawn on, the details of the liquidity facilities provided would depend on the specific market circumstances at the time. The Bank of Canada continues to closely monitor developments in global financial markets and remains committed to providing liquidity as required to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the functioning of financial markets.

Bank of England Action

The introduction of the network of temporary swap lines will enable the Bank of England to provide sterling to the other central banks if required, as well as enabling the Bank of England to provide liquidity, should it be needed, in Japanese yen, euro, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in U.S. dollars). The Bank will continue its weekly tenders of U.S. dollar funding at fixed interest rates each Wednesday until further notice, with counterparties able to borrow unlimited amounts against eligible collateral. The rate at which tenders are conducted will be reduced to OIS+50bps (from OIS+100bps) beginning with the next weekly tender on 7 December. The three-month tender scheduled for 7 December and subsequent three-month tenders will also be conducted at OIS+50bps. In the U.S. dollar repo operations, counterparties are permitted to borrow any amount against eligible collateral.

European Central Bank Decision

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in co-operation with other central banks the establishment of a temporary network of reciprocal swap lines.  This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars). The ECB will regularly conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately one week and three months at the new pricing. The schedule for these operations, which will take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, will be published today on the ECB’s website.

In addition, the initial margin for three-month US dollar operations will be reduced from currently 20% to 12% and weekly updates of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be introduced in order to carry out margin calls. Those changes will be effective as of the operations to be conducted on 7 December 2011. Further details about the operations will be made available in the respective modified tender procedure via the ECB’s Website.

Frequently Asked Questions: Foreign Currency Liquidity Swaps

What is the purpose of the foreign currency liquidity swap lines? 

The foreign currency liquidity swap lines are designed to provide the Federal Reserve with the capacity to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions should the Federal Reserve judge that such actions are appropriate.

Which central banks are participating in these arrangements?

The Federal Open Market Committee has authorized arrangements between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. In addition, these foreign central banks are also establishing bilateral swap arrangements with one another.

Why are these swap lines being implemented?

These swap lines are being implemented as a contingency measure, so that central banks can offer liquidity in foreign currencies if market conditions warrant such actions. These lines provide the Federal Reserve with the same ability to provide foreign currency, should the need arise, as foreign central banks currently have through the existing dollar swap lines with the Federal Reserve to provide dollar liquidity in their jurisdictions.

Why is the Federal Reserve establishing lines for these five currencies and with these five central banks? 

These five currencies are used globally and account for the bulk of the foreign currency funding of U.S. financial institutions.

In what manner would foreign currency liquidity be provided?

There has not been a decision to activate the foreign currency liquidity facilities. If the Federal Reserve were to decide to offer liquidity in foreign currencies to U.S. financial institutions, the details of the operations would be determined at that time in light of the prevailing circumstances.

Will activity under the liquidity swap arrangements be disclosed to the public? 

Yes, the aggregate swap activity in each currency with foreign central banks will be published weekly. They will be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Foreign Exchange Swap Agreement webpage . In addition, any liquidity-supplying operations in foreign currencies would be subject to the same disclosure requirements as the Federal Reserve’s dollar-based activities.

For how long are the swap arrangements expected to be in place?

These swap arrangements, along with the existing U.S. dollar swap arrangements, have been authorized through February 1, 2013.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from May 2010

Why has the Federal Reserve re-established temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities with foreign central banks? 

The swap facilities announced in May 2010 respond to the re-emergence of strains in short term funding markets in Europe. They are designed to improve liquidity conditions in global money markets and to minimize the risk that strains abroad could spread to U.S. markets, by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions.

With which central banks has the Federal Reserve entered into swap facilities? 

The Federal Reserve has established swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada (BOC), the Bank of England (BOE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

How do the swap facilities function? 

The swap lines with the ECB, BOE, SNB and BOJ provide these central banks with the capacity to conduct tenders of U.S. dollars in their local markets at fixed local rates for full allotment, similar to arrangements that had been in place previously. The swap line with the Bank of Canada allows for drawings of up to $30 billion. The terms, structure, and operational mechanics of these swap agreements closely parallel the arrangements that expired on February 1, 2010.

For how long are the swap facilities expected to be operational? 

These swap arrangements have been authorized through February 1, 2013. Central banks may request drawings on their swap lines up to the date of expiration.

Is the Federal Reserve exposed to foreign exchange or private bank risk in extending these lines? 

No. Dollars provided through the reciprocal currency swaps are provided by the Federal Reserve to foreign central banks, not to the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central bank receiving dollars determines the terms on which it will lend dollars onward to institutions in its jurisdiction, including how the foreign central bank will allocate dollar funds to financial institutions, which institutions are eligible to borrow, and what types of collateral they may borrow against. The terms governing these loans of dollars are in all cases released to the public by the foreign central banks. As the Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship is exclusively with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations, the Federal Reserve does not assume the credit risk associated with lending to financial institutions based in these foreign jurisdictions. The provision of dollars and receipt of foreign currency, and the receipt of dollars and return of foreign currency at the swap’s maturity date, both occur at the same foreign exchange rate so that the Federal Reserve is not exposed to movements in foreign exchange rates.

Is activity under the liquidity swap arrangements disclosed to the public? 

Yes, swap activity is published weekly. The Federal Reserve has also released the underlying legal agreements with foreign central banks.

U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines from December 2007 to February 2010

What was the purpose of the dollar liquidity swap lines?

The dollar liquidity swap lines were designed to improve liquidity conditions in U.S. and foreign financial markets by providing foreign central banks with the capacity to deliver U.S. dollar funding to institutions in their jurisdictions during times of market stress.

What circumstances led to the implementation of these facilities?

The swap arrangements were introduced to address stresses in U.S. dollar funding in overseas markets. These difficulties were adding materially to pressures in funding and credit markets in the United States and abroad.

Who authorized the use of the swaps?

The arrangements were authorized by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System and the policy boards or executives of the respective foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve had the right to approve or deny requests by foreign central banks to draw on their swap lines. The FOMC authorized these arrangements through February 1, 2010. The foreign central banks could request draws on their swap lines up to that date.

Which central banks could engage in swaps?

The Federal Reserve established swap arrangements with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank.

How were the swaps structured?

The Federal Reserve provided U.S. dollars to a foreign central bank. At the same time, the foreign central bank provided the equivalent amount of funds in its currency to the Federal Reserve, based on the market exchange rate at the time of the transaction. The parties agreed to swap back these quantities of their two currencies at a specified date in the future, which was the next day or as far ahead as three months, using the same exchange rate as in the first transaction. Because the terms of this second transaction were set in advance, fluctuations in exchange rates during the interim did not alter the eventual payments. Accordingly, these swap operations carried no exchange rate or other market risks.

How did foreign central banks distribute the U.S. dollar funding they received through these swaps?

The foreign central banks distributed the U.S. dollars they drew through a variety of methods, including variable-rate tenders, fixed-rate tenders, bilateral transactions, and foreign exchange swap tenders against various types of collateral, including both foreign currency and securities denominated in foreign currency. In each case, the arrangement was between the foreign central bank and the institutions obtaining the funding in these operations. The foreign central banks determined the acceptability of the collateral offered and the eligibility of the institutions to participate in the operations they conducted. The terms on which funds were tendered were released to the public by the foreign central banks. The Federal Reserve’s contractual relationship was with the foreign central bank and not with the institutions obtaining dollar funding in these operations.

What revenues and costs arose for the Federal Reserve?

When a foreign central bank drew on its swap line to fund its dollar tender operations, it paid interest to the Federal Reserve in an amount equal to the interest the foreign central bank earned on its tender operations. For its part, the Federal Reserve did not pay interest and committed to hold the foreign currency that it acquired in the swap transaction at the foreign central bank (rather than lending it or investing it in private markets). The structure of the arrangement served to avoid domestic currency reserve management difficulties for foreign central banks that could have arisen if the Federal Reserve had actively invested the foreign currency holdings in the marketplace.

What was the impact of swaps on U.S. monetary operations?

The drawing of U.S. dollars by a foreign central bank resulted in an increase in the level of reserve balances held at the Reserve Banks. Similarly, the repayment of U.S. dollars to the Federal Reserve when a swap was unwound resulted in a drain of these balances.

Fed Minutes Doubts US Economy Will Improve

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Federal Reserve officials who voted last month to twist their holdings of bonds were concerned the economy might not pick up by the end of the year, according to the minutes of their two-day meeting in late September released on Wednesday. Talk about a Debby Downer. Fed officials “saw considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook for a gradual pickup in economic growth,” with the economy showing only a weak bounce after the recession in contrast to past recoveries, according to the minutes. Reasons for this weakness remained “unclear” although some blamed business and consumer debt and the distressed housing market. With growth so slow, the economy was more vulnerable to adverse shocks. Risks included more protracted deleveraging by households, larger-than-expected fiscal tightening and potential spillover if the financial situation in Europe were to worsen appreciably. The release of the minutes had little short-term effect on markets, with U.S. stocks finishing up 102 points, but well off its highs.

Federal Open Market Committee members “agreed to consider further how best to use their monetary policy and liquidity tools to deal with such shocks if they were to occur.” The Fed staff said they continued to forecast stronger growth in the second half of this year because supply chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector as a result of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami had eased. The central bank at the meeting re-started a half-century-old policy called Operation Twist, in which they set a plan to sell $400 billion worth of short maturity bonds and reinvest into longer-dated securities. They did consider outright purchases of bonds but said that may be employed if signs of deflation were to re-emerge. The policy was approved by a seven-to-three vote. Two Fed officials wanted stronger action but agreed to go along with the Twist plan as it did not rule out future steps. Those two members weren’t named, though Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he was one of them. Plosser separately on Wednesday said he didn’t expect the U.S. to enter recession.

Federal Reserve policymakers left the door open to another round of asset purchases in the near future. Minutes released Wednesday showed that the possibility of a third round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing or QE3, is still very much alive.

The Fed’s next meeting is set for Nov. 1 and 2

Fed Will Use $400 Billion In “Operation Twist”

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

The Fed said it would launch a new $400 billion program that will tilt its $2.85 trillion balance sheet more heavily to longer-term securities by selling shorter-term notes and using those funds to purchase longer-dated Treasuries by June 2012. It will now also reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage and agency bonds back into the mortgage market, an acknowledgement of just how weak conditions in the sector have remained. Seven out of 10 voting officials supported the action at the conclusion of a two-day meeting of the Fed’s policy making body – the Federal Open Market Committee — highlighting continued divisions within the central bank as it tries unorthodox new ways to provide support to the economy. The move should increase the average maturity of its Treasury securities portfolio to just over eight years by the end of 2012 from a little over six years now.

“Recent indicators point to continuing weakness in overall labor market conditions, and the unemployment rate remains elevated,” Fed said in its statement. Faced with a lofty 9.1 percent jobless rate, consumer and business confidence sapped by a troubling U.S. credit downgrade, and an escalating sovereign debt crisis in Europe, Fed officials have signaled they would seek to prevent already sluggish U.S. growth from weakening further. The U.S. economy grew at less than a 1 percent annual rate over the first half of the year and analysts have warned of a heightened risk of recession. A report showing U.S. employers added no new jobs on net in August provoked widespread fear growth could stall. The Fed has already embarked far down one of the most aggressive monetary easing paths on record.

But even as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has indicated the central bank’s reluctance to stay on the sidelines, Fed activism has become a punching bag for politicians as an election year nears. Top Republican congressional leaders wrote to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week urging the central bank to desist from further economic interventions, echoing criticism voiced by Republican presidential candidates in recent weeks. Fed officials, however, believe that by shifting their bond holdings they could encourage mortgage refinancing and push investors into riskier assets, such as corporate bonds and stocks, without stoking a run-up in consumer prices.

The U.S. central bank is not alone in its concerns. The Bank of England on Wednesday signaled it was ready to pump more money into the weakening British economy, potentially as soon as October. Similarly, the Norwegian central bank held its main interest rate unchanged and signaled it might refrain from rate increases for longer than previously expected due to a weaker global economy and the euro zone debt crisis.

Market has pulled back 125 points as of this writing. Gold & Oil, too have pulled back.

Markets Lose Steam After GOP Letter To Fed

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

After soaring as high as 11,550.22 or 148 points in intraday trading, the DJIA – 11,408.66 pared its lead to just 7.7 points, or about 0.1%. The S&P – 1,202.09 wasn’t as fortunate. After topping out at 1,220.39, the broad-market barometer providing an abrupt loss, giving up 2 points, or 0.2%, by the bell. Shrugging off Italy’s ratings downgrade from Standard & Poor’s, Wall Street initially opted for rose-colored glasses, as investors assumed a glass-half-full stance in the face of uncertainty about Greek debt. Elsewhere, expectations for a round of stimulus measures from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tomorrow also bolstered sentiment, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to a triple-digit lead by midday. U.S. stocks mostly lost gains ahead of Fed as Wall Street looked for signs of resolution to Europe’s debt crisis and for steps from the Federal Reserve to juice the economy. Stocks had wobbled in negative territory shortly following the open, after the International Monetary Fund reduced its outlook for global economic growth, saying the repercussions could be severe should Europe not succeed in containing its debt troubles, or if U.S. lawmakers fail to reach agreement on a fiscal plan.

In a teleconference during the session, Greek officials and international lenders discussed the next installment of emergency funds viewed as needed to keep the country from defaulting on its debts. Europe stocks gained Tuesday on optimism for an agreement. Media reports cited Greece’s semi-official Athens News Agency as saying, without quoting any sources, that the so-called “troika” — consisting of European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund was expected to arrive in Athens in early October to complete an evaluation of Greece’s reforms program. The Greek populace is going to have to get used to an austere future to deal with their problems, and the Germans are going to have to get used to paying more of the bill than they are used to if they want to salvage their own economy.

The Fed’s two-day policy meeting, concluding Wednesday, could have the central bank taking additional steps to bolster the economy. Many expect the Federal Open Market Committee to opt for a move known as “Operation Twist,” which would involve the central bank selling shorter-term notes and buying longer-term Treasury bonds in an effort to bend the yield curve.

The Congressional Republican leadership sent a letter this week to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke urging him to refrain from any more easing moves, saying that the U.S. economy should be driven by consumer confidence and worker innovation and not by central bank policy. The letter was sent to Bernanke on Monday as he prepared for a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets Fed monetary policy. Altogether, the Fed has purchased $2.35 trillion of Treasurys and housing-related securities in two rounds of quantitative easing to try to push investors to leave safer assets and take more risks, thus reviving the economy’s “animal spirits.” But the moves have always been controversial both inside and outside the Fed. In the sharply toned letter, the Republican leaders said it is not clear that the quantitative easing has done anything to help the economy. They argued that further easing moves would harm the economy and weaken the dollar. A majority of Wall Street economists had been expecting the Fed to ease further on Wednesday. The Fed was seen likely to take a new “twist” step to swap shorter-maturity government securities on its balance sheet for longer-dated ones in another stab at jolting the slow-moving U.S. economy. The Fed would announce any decision Wednesday afternoon.

Altogether, the Fed has purchased $2.35 trillion of Treasurys and housing-related securities in two rounds of quantitative easing to try to push investors to leave safer assets and take more risks, thus reviving the economy’s “animal spirits.” But the moves have always been controversial both inside and outside the Fed. In the sharply toned letter, the Republican leaders said it is not clear that the quantitative easing has done anything to help the economy. They argued that further easing moves would harm the economy and weaken the dollar. A majority of Wall Street economists had been expecting the Fed to ease further on Wednesday. The Fed was seen likely to take a new “twist” step to swap shorter-maturity government securities on its balance sheet for longer-dated ones in another stab at jolting the slow-moving U.S. economy. The Fed would announce any decision Wednesday afternoon.

In this case, however, the Republican officials were pushed the Fed in the opposite direction. “We submit that the Fed should resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy, particularly without a clear articulation of the goals of such a policy, direction for success, ample data proving a case for economic action and quantifiable benefits to the American people,” the letter said. More easing could exacerbate the current problems or “further harm” the economy. The dollar may weaken, and the Fed action might cause debt-strapped consumers to borrow more. The letter was signed by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, Sen. John Kyl of Arizona, Speaker of the House John Boehner and House Republican leader Eric Cantor.

Big 5 Day DJIA Squeeze; Market Resistance Approaching

Friday, September 16th, 2011

The S&P gained 5 percent, with the market enjoying its first five-day winning streak since July. It was the best week for the Nasdaq tech gauge since July of 2009. The Dow finished within 25 points of its high for the day and closed the week up 4.7 percent. Despite the week’s strength, stocks remain in the red for the year. All 27 European Union finance ministers are set to meet Friday afternoon and Saturday. Economists said lack of concrete measures could leave markets vulnerable on Monday. The huge risk that we face on Monday is that the meeting in Poland will end without a concrete action plan. Friday’s mild volatility was in part due to traders adjusting their portfolios during so-called “quadruple witching.” The term refers to the phenomenon that takes place four times a year when several derivatives contracts expire at the same time those tied to market index futures, market index options, stock options and stock futures. But investors’ primary attention remains on Europe’s debt crisis, as the region’s finance ministers gather in Poland.

The squeeze started out this week after French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel vowed Greece would meet its obligations and remain in the euro zone. The remarks came after a conference call Wednesday with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. On Thursday, the European Central Bank, in coordination with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank, announced it would provide additional dollar liquidity to banks. The move was seen as pre-emptive effort to head off growing tensions in the interbank lending market tied to worries abut the exposure of banks, particularly in France, to Greek debt. The announcement boosted risk appetite, sending European and U.S. shares higher while lifting the euro and forcing U.S. Treasurys and German bunds to give back some of their recent safe-haven gains.

On a technical perspective, the S&P remains in an uptrend however buying pressure has seized. Currently in a holding pattern. 1234-1225 remain key technical resistance. 2nd line of resistance then targets 1275 range. Support remains at 1150 then 1120.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Friday urged euro-zone finance ministers and the European Central Bank to work together to solve the region’s debt crisis and to enhance the power of the region’s rescue fund amid signs officials have yet to overcome divisions over how to proceed. Geithner is the first U.S. Treasury Secretary to attend an informal meeting of euro-zone finance ministers, a move that economists said underscores rising international worries over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and fears it could spark a global financial crisis. Geithner’s presence signifies the anxiety and concerns across the Atlantic over Europe and will put further pressure on policy makers to reach some decisive actions. The Frankfurt-based ECB and euro-zone governments have clashed repeatedly over solutions to the debt crisis. The ECB strongly resisted calls to make private-sector bondholders share in the cost of bailouts.

Overall, moves in the market were somewhat subdued Friday, as news from the meeting in Poland is not expected until the weekend. Chandler said the focal point of the meeting is likely to be the expansion European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which is the bailout fund for Europe’s cash-strapped countries, including Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

A spat triggered by Finland’s demand for collateral from Greece in return for Helsinki’s participation in a second bailout program has raised tensions. Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen said there was still no resolution of the country’s call for guarantees to back its contribution to the second Greek rescue package. Juncker told reporters some progress had been made on the issue and that ministers agreed that “if collateral will be provided, it will be done at an appropriate price. Juncker also said a decision on whether to disburse the next tranche of aid for Greece under last year’s EU-International Monetary Fund bailout will be made in October. Greece’s government could run out of money within weeks if the tranche isn’t released, Greek officials have said. Finance ministers welcomed new efforts by Greece designed to help it meet fiscal targets tied to the initial bailout. Fears of an imminent Greek default have roiled financial markets and triggered fears of a potentially catastrophic banking collapse in Europe.

Italy Rating Under Review

Moody’s Investors Service Friday said it would finish reviewing Italy’s Aa2 sovereign currency credit rating for possible downgrade within the next month, saying the country faces a challenging economic and financial environment. Moody’s cited the fluid political developments in the euro area, which is struggling with a deepening sovereign debt crisis. In June, Moody’s cited a rigid labor market and Italy’s rising debt financing costs. Italy has one of the largest public debt burdens in the world, equivalent to about 120 percent of gross domestic product. After Greece, that is the largest ratio in the 17-country euro zone. Italian bank UniCredit shed 7 percent even though the overall market was higher for a fourth straight day. Traders cited speculation that Moody’s would downgrade Italy as one reason for the weakness in European bank shares. While Italy has not followed Greece, Ireland and Portugal in seeking emergency aid, it has faced higher borrowing costs as debt worries have spurred investors to demand higher returns to buy its government bonds. Investors are also wary of European banks that hold large amounts of government debt from countries such as Italy that may be vulnerable to a downgrade.

Standard & Poor’s has Italy at A+ with a negative outlook while Fitch Ratings has it at AA-minus with a stable outlook. Moody’s rating is two notches above S&P and one notch above Fitch. Moody’s rating is two notches below the gold-plated Aaa status.

Week Ahead

President Obama is expected to lay out his preferred options for debt reduction on Monday.

President Obama’s debt reduction plan is set to land Monday in the laps of the 12 members of the Congress’ bipartisan debt committee. In recent weeks the president has said his plan would offer specific proposals that can achieve savings “more ambitious” than the committee’s $1.5 trillion target. He said it would be “balanced,” involving both spending cuts and tax increases. And he promised it would “stabilize debt in the long run.”

Federal Reserve holds a two-day meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke said in late August the Fed would hash out the possibility of more easing options over a two-day period, a longer gathering than originally planned. Since then, expectations among bond market participants have focused on the possibility the Fed could engage in an effort dubbed “Operation Twist,” which would increase the average maturity of its portfolio by increasing holdings of longer-maturity bonds, swapped for shorter-term holdings. The end result is likely lower long-end rates — but not a big market impact.

In the coming week, the IMF meets in Washington and Europe will certainly be on the agenda. Ahead of that meeting, representatives of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are expected to meet to discuss whether they can help the European situation. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will be in New York Monday and is expected to visit the New York Stock Exchange.

Against that policy-heavy backgroup, a few earnings stand out. Oracle Corp. Lennar reports Monday. AutoZone, Carnival, CongAgra, Oracle and Adobe report Tuesday. General Mills and Bed Bath and Beyond report Wednesday. FedEx, Nike, Discover Financial, and report Thursday, and KB Home reports Friday.

The housing market will also be a focus when new and existing home sales data is released Tuesday and Wednesday. New data this past week showed a jump in foreclosure starts, signaling that a big wave of foreclosed properties will hit the struggling housing market early next year.

Monday
10 a.m. National Association of Home Builders survey

Tuesday
8:30 a.m. Housing starts

Wednesday
10:00 a.m. Existing home sales
2:15 p.m. FOMC statement

Thursday
8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims
10 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index
10 a.m. Leading indicators
4:30 p.m. Fed balance sheet

Markets On Pause Ahead Of Obama & Bernanke Speech

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

Stocks have been wagering the last few weeks in volatile fashion. News on the weakening economy and matters in Europe are making it increasingly difficult for investors to snap up stocks in this environment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered, after snapping a three-day losing streak in the previous session. The DJIA is currently down 82 points after Bernanke’s disappointment speech.

On the economic front, jobless claims edged higher last week, rising 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 414,000, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, the trade deficit narrowed more than expected to $44.8 billion in July—its biggest month-to-month percentage drop since Feb. 2009, according to a government report. Economists had expected $51 billion.

President Obama is slated to unveil his much-anticipated plan to create jobs before a joint session of Congress at 7 pm ET. Obama is reported to be seeking as much as $300 billion in infrastructure investments and tax cuts to inspire hiring. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak on the economy at 1:30 pm ET at the Minneapolis Economics Club. Bernanke is not seen veering from his recent remarks at the Jackson Hole Fed symposium last month and is expected to continue teasing markets with a promise the Fed will discuss its easing options at its two-day meeting next week.

Speaking from Minnesota and with financial markets closely watching what Bernanke would indicate regarding Fed intervention matters, he said the central bank still has tools at its disposal to foster economic growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated the central bank’s commitment to providing stimulus for the wobbly US economy but offered no specific promises or details about what action could be taken. 

Speculation has been that the Fed will implement a revised version of its Operation Twist, first used in 1961 to drive down interest rates by selling short-term debt and buying long-term. While Bernanke did not address that idea specifically, he did elaborate on his economic observations.

Breaking from his position that the economy was suffering “transitory” difficulties, Bernanke conceded the problems are not merely temporary. Among them are the inability of the housing market to recover and the lingering effect of the financial crisis. “It is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped,” he said, according to prepared remarks. “The incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been holding back the recovery,” he added. As such, the Fed “now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the June meeting, with greater downside risks to the economic outlook.” He also repeated his call for Congress and the White House to implement proper fiscal measures to control the national debt and budget deficit. ”Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis,” he said. “These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.”

Bernanke gave a nod toward the notion that the economy has not recovered as quickly as it should have, despite the unprecedented levels of stimulus from both the Fed and Congress. The Fed meets Sept. 20-21 and market speculation has ranged from the Fed implementing a third round of quantitative easing to Operation Twist to other measures as well, including cutting the interest it pays on reserves that banks deposit at the Fed.

Markets Close Off Their Highs

Wednesday, July 13th, 2011

QE3 buzz brings out the bulls but DJIA loses steam at the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,491.61 boasted a gain of more than 160 points, but whittled its surplus down to just 44.7 points, or 0.4%, by the close. Earlier in the session, markets made a brief trip north of 12,600, but stood south of 12,500 for the second straight session by the time the dust settled. Likewise, the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,317.72) was up more than 17 points at its session high, but trimmed its lead to 4.1 points, or 0.3%, by the bell. Stifling the broad-market index’s upward momentum was the 1,333 neighborhood, which marks double its March 2009 low.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lured buyers from the sidelines. Speaking on Capitol Hill, the central banker hinted at “additional policy support” in the wake of an extended period of economic weakness, but reiterated the Fed’s forecast for a “moderate” recovery. Nevertheless, buzz of a possible “QE3″ fueled stocks into the black, and sent the greenback reeling which translated into a second straight all-time high for dollar-denominated gold. However, Bernanke’s warning that debt-ceiling delays could be “catastrophic” took some of the wind out of the bulls’ sails, with the major market indexes giving back the majority of their gains by the bell.

Reasons for late sell-off

1)Hawkish comments from Dallas Fed’s Fisher critical of QE2 and implying there was no way he would support QE3

2) The Catch-22 with QE3 is now obvious to all: Bernanke has said the bar would be set high, that signs of deflation would be one of the primary reasons for doing QE3 again … but every time we get a QE3 “risk on” rally with commodities up, it (by definition!) makes it less likely that QE3 will happen.

3) Concerns on earnings commentary. Forget QE3 or the debt ceiling…my main concern for the stock market in July is earnings. Banks begin reporting tomorrow. Traders have looked at the downbeat semiconductor commentary this week.

Remember we also we will get European bank stress tests on Friday—91 banks. A small German bank—Helaba—has already pulled out of the stress tests—to avoid public failure, according to the FT. Apparently there is a dispute about what instruments should count as top-quality capital.

QE3 In Planning Phase Says Bernanke

Wednesday, July 13th, 2011

Bernanke looks to keep his nickname “Helicopter Ben.” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Wednesday that a new stimulus program is in the works that will entail additional asset purchases, the clearest indication yet that the central bank is contemplating another round of monetary easing. Bernanke said in prepared remarks that the economy is growing more slowly than expected, and should that continue the central bank stands at the ready with more accommodative measures. “Once the temporary shocks that have been holding down economic activity pass, we expect to again see the effects of policy accommodation reflected in stronger economic activity and job creation,” he said

My question Mr. Bernanke, if QE1 & QE2 did not spur job growth, what makes you think QE3 will? This will only spur artifical wealth to the middlelclass while the rich keep on getting richer. The only bright side I see to this is that pension funds and municipalities will have more time to recoup the loses incurred during “The Great Recession”. The dollar will continue to be devalued.

“However, given the range of uncertainties about the strength of the recovery and prospects for inflation over the medium term, the Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate.” Markets reacted immediately to the remarks, sending stocks up sharply in a matter of minutes. Gold & Silver prices continued to surge past record levels, while Treasury yields moved higher as well.

Delivering his twice-a-year economic report to Congress, Bernanke laid out three options the central bank would consider.

One option, Bernanke said, would be for the Fed to provide more “explicit guidance” to the pledge that rates will stay low for “an extended period.” Another approach would be another round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing, or for the Fed to “increase the average maturity of our holdings.” Bernanke said the Fed could launch another round of Treasury bond buying, the third such effort since 2009. It could cut the interest paid to banks on the reserves they hold as a way to encourage them to lend more. The Fed could also be more explicit in spelling out just how long it planned to keep rates at record-low levels. That would give investors confidence about the Fed’s efforts to continue supporting the economy.

Bernanke maintained that temporary factors, such as high food and gas prices, have slowed the economy. He said those factors should ease in the second half of the year and growth should pick up. But if that forecast proves wrong, he said the Fed is prepared to do more. (More likely to be launched by 2012 just in time for the election year) Bernanke also said it was possible that inflationary pressures spurred by higher energy and food prices may end up being more persistent than the Fed anticipates. He said that the central bank would be prepared to start raising interest rates faster than currently contemplated, if prices don’t moderate. Bernanke’s comments about inflation spoke to concerns expressed by some regional bank presidents at the Fed. The have criticized the Fed’s bond-buying program, saying it has increased the risk for higher inflation. The Fed has kept its key interest rate at a record low near zero since December 2008. Most private economists believe the Fed will not start raising interest rates until next summer. And some say the Fed won’t increase rates until 2013, based on the slumping economy.

Form of QE3 without adding to the Fed balance sheet. Read here

Exit Strategy

The Fed chairman detailed the “broad consensus” among Fed officials about how the Fed plans to exit its policy stance of a target federal-funds rate between 0% and 0.25% and holding roughly $2.6 trillion of securities. This agreement was unveiled in the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting. The suggested order of an exit from the current ultra-low stance on interest rates is first to cease reinvesting principal on bonds the Fed holds. After that, policy makers would either simultaneously or soon after change the forward guidance on the federal-funds rate, followed by raising the target for the federal-funds rate, and then selling agency securities after the first rate increase.

Bernanke defended the Fed’s controversial second round of asset purchases, or QE2, saying that it lowered long-term interest rates and boosted employment.  Bernanke said Fed officials still believed the unemployment rate would decline to a range of 8.6% to 8.9% by the fourth quarter. The jobless rate has moved up to 9.2% in June from 8.8% in March.

The strength of consumer spending will be a key determinant of the pace of the recovery in coming quarters, Bernanke said. Bernanke urged lawmakers not to give up on a more historic $4 billion deficit deal involving entitlements. “I, like many other people who watch budget developments, have been very excited by the idea that a very big program might be feasible and that we might do something that would stabilize our debt over the next decade. That would be a tremendous accomplishment,” Bernanke said. Bernanke pushed Congress to increase the debt ceiling, saying failure to act would spark a “major crisis” and roil the global economy. He said that the U.S. economy would certainly shed more jobs if the debt ceiling is not increased.

Gold & Silver

Gold surged to a record of $1,588.9 an ounce Wednesday as the possibility of more Federal Reserve stimulus coupled with Europe’s deepening debt crisis gave bullion its longest winning streak in five years. Fears that the euro zone debt crisis is spreading and uncertainty over frantic U.S. talks to raise its debt limit also underpinned precious metals. The yellow metal additionally hit all-time highs when priced in euro and sterling. Gold benefits from additional U.S. monetary easing because such a move would likely weaken the dollar and stir inflation down the road. The worst thing for gold would be to have the economy doing well enough that the Federal Reserve starts to normalize monetary policy, or conditions in the European Community begin to settle down.

Gold is set for an eighth consecutive day of gains, something it has not achieved since mid-October 2006, when it rose for nine days in a row. It has gained around 12 percent so far this year and more than doubled in price in the last four years. ”Gold will keep rising for the next five years, even if it has some crests and troughs,” said Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Those holding gold should hold onto it, while others should probably get their hands on it as it is going to be on an upward trend. “The sovereign debt crisis is helping the gold prices rise, but even if it is addressed in the short-term, the developed countries are in so much debt that it will continue to drive gold up for the next 10 years.” European Union leaders are expected to hold an emergency meeting on Friday after finance ministers acknowledged for the first time that some form of Greek default may be needed to cut Athens’ debts and stop contagion spreading to Italy and Spain.

Political Impasse On Debt Ceiling

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

The Fed has done their work to prop up the economy, now it comes to political action to continue the trend. And just when you think the politicians can put aside their differences, just once…..maybe…or rather hoping they will; they Republicans and Democrats alike continue their rhetoric. Theirs apparently a Group of Six politicians that are spear heading the discussions. The group is one of two trying to agree on a plan to rein in deficits. One of them is Oklahoma Republican Tom Coburn, who just dropped out of the “Gang of Six” group of senators. 

Geithner, meanwhile, said Congress must raise the U.S. debt ceiling before Aug. 2 even if lawmakers can’t reach an agreement on a long-term plan to reduce deficits. On Monday, the Treasury suspended new investments in federal retirement and disability funds, the latest steps aimed at heading off a possible default by the government this summer. Yesterday, we reached the debt limit, and because Congress has not acted, we were forced to deploy a series of extraordinary measures to prevent default. Without the suspension of new investments on Monday the government would have hit the debt ceiling late on Monday or early on Tuesday morning. The accounting maneuvers give the government $147 billion of headroom under the debt ceiling, according to Treasury.

Members of Congress and the White House are still deep in negotiations about raising the limit. Vice President Joe Biden and a bipartisan group of lawmakers will resume after the House returns from a recess next week. Can you believe that during these pressing times, the government is entitled to a recess when the job isn’t complete. Ridiculous…

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, a Virginia Republican, reiterated on Tuesday that Republicans won’t back an increase in the debt limit unless it’s accompanied by spending cuts. House Speaker John Boehner said recently that those cuts should be larger than any increase in the debt limit.

The Treasury hasn’t said how big of an increase it wants in the debt ceiling. But it would take an increase of about $2 trillion to last beyond the next presidential election in November 2012. The government borrows about $125 billion each month. That’s $4billion a day. Oh and did you notice the statement above…$2 trillion to last through 2012 election. That’s a lot of money to support the economy. How are we ever going to repay this?