Posts Tagged ‘obama’

Geithner: US to Play Role In Helping Europe

Friday, October 14th, 2011

October 23, the date of the European Union summit at which solutions to the crisis are expected to be announced remains a long way off, the risk rally only showed signs of fading on Thursday as investors took a breather after some sharp gains on Wednesday. The resumption of the rally on Friday was helped by encouragingly robust US retail sales data and news from Geithner representing US will provide support for the Euro cause. Stocks are on pace to log their third-straight weekly gain Friday, amid optimism the euro zone would find a solution to its debt crisis. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied to turn positive for 2011 up 120 points at the time of this writing while the S&P is up 13 points to 1216 with technical resistance at 1220 and 1235.

Geithner is in Paris attending a meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers today and tomorrow that is seeking ways to end Europe’s two-year crisis. Global stocks rose today as outlines of a package emerged, including higher bank capital levels, deeper investor losses on Greek bonds and increased firepower for bailouts. Geithner said the International Monetary Fund has “very substantial uncommitted resources” to help in the crisis. “Europe as a whole has very substantial resources to help manage their problems.” He said the U.S. would continue to press for a solution. “Europeans have asked us for advice,” Geithner said. “Through the IMF we have a direct stake in the choices they’re making. We’re going to be as forceful and persuasive as we can.”

With global leaders preparing for next month’s Group of 20 nations (G20) summit in Cannes, France, the International Monetary Fund — of which the U.S. is the greatest contributor — is being relied on to help underwrite whatever efforts are needed to backstop toxic European sovereign debt. Geithner said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has “very substantial” resources to fund a device that could look like the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which helped navigate American financial institutions through the crisis in 2008 and 2009. “Through the IMF, of course, we’re already playing a very major role,” he said in a live interview in Paris. “We’re happy to see the IMF continue to play that role in support of a more forceful, comprehensive strategy where Europe’s own resources—very ample resources—are deployed on a much more substantial scale.”

Geithner declined to give a specific number on what would be required to aid Greece and any other potential countries that need help meeting their obligations. Estimates have run as high as $2 trillion for a liquidity fund, and Geithner said that whatever the figure is, it should leave no doubt that there will be more than enough.

Congress Approves Panama, Columbia, And South Korea Trade

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

Free-trade deals between the U.S. and Colombia, Panama and South Korea cleared the House and Senate on Wednesday after almost five years of negotiations, as Democrats and Republicans joined in a rare display of bipartisanship and sent the measures to President Barack Obama. The deals, strongly backed by the White House, could boost U.S. exports by $13 billion a year, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. The pacts were first negotiated during the George W. Bush administration and revised by the Obama administration.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that failure to pass the three pacts would have cost more than 380,000 American jobs. In the House, the vote was 262-167 on the Colombia agreement; 300-129 on the Panama deal and 278-151 on the South Korea agreement. The Senate voted 66-33 on the Colombia agreement; 77-22 on the Panama deal and 83-15 on the South Korea agreement.

The agreement with South Korea is worth more than $11 billion in U.S. exports a year, according to the ITC. Approval of that deal and the others on Wednesday came a day before a state visit by South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak, a key U.S. ally in Asia. The House also passed funding for workers who have lost their jobs because of international competition, a key demand of Obama’s for getting the trade deals through Congress. The Senate had approved the funding, called trade adjustment assistance, earlier. Some lawmakers protested that U.S. industries including manufacturing and textiles would be hurt by the trade agreements..

The AFL-CIO, the country’s biggest federation of labor unions, had urged lawmakers to oppose the deal with Colombia due to killings of union members in the South American country. Democrats including Rep. Nancy Pelosi, the party’s leader in the House, voted against the Colombia deal. The agreement “isn’t fair to workers in Colombia or to workers in the United States,” Pelosi said. In his chamber, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio slammed the Panama agreement before being rebuffed by fellow Democrat Max Baucus, who pointed to a thick stack of papers and said: “Those are all the tariffs that Panama’s going to get rid of.”

World Market Data & News

Thursday, October 6th, 2011

U.S.

Weekly jobless claims gained less than expected last week, climbing 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000, according to the Labor Department from a revised 395,000 in the prior week. Economists had forecast claims rising to 410,000, according to a Reuters poll. The jobless claims news comes ahead of the crucial monthly government jobs report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls are expected to have increased 60,000 in September, according to a Reuters poll, after being flat in the month prior.

Obama said during his press interview “No question the economy has slowed”

China currency bill advances in Senate. A bill designed to pressure China into boosting the value of its currency came a step closer to final passage in the Senate on Thursday, clearing another procedural hurdle. Senators voted 62-38 to advance the bill, which calls for retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods if China’s currency is found to be “misaligned.” A vote on final passage of the bill could come as early as Thursday afternoon. Key Republicans are skeptical of the bill and it faces long odds for passage in the House.

Europe

In Europe, the ECB held interest rates steady at 1.5 percent as last month’s rise in inflation offset pressure to respond to the euro zone’s worsening debt crisis by easing borrowing costs. “Ongoing tensions in financial markets and unfavorable effects on financing conditions are likely to dampen the pace of economic growth in the euro area in the second half of the year,” said Trichet in a news conference following the rate announcement. “The economic outlook remains subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks.” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet step down from his post at the end of the month and will hand over the duty to Mario Draghi, currently Italy’s central bank governor. Meanwhile, Europe’s leaders said they are prepared to help the region’s weakest banks and want to recapitalize lenders to calm investor fears.

Belgian-French financial group Dexia shares have been halted at the request of the Belgian regulator pending a statement. The stock was last trading down 17 percent. Earlier, the Luxembourg government has said it will take a minority stake in the bank, adding that an investor is ready to buy a majority stake in Dexia’s Luxembourg arm. The bank’s slide and subsequent rescue operation appear to have focused European leaders’ minds to offer broader support for the banking sector, but analysts have already expressed concerns over the cost of further aid to already heavily indebted EU governments.

European troika to report by Oct. 24

If you ask me I think that’s a bit too late. Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said Thursday that the so-called “troika” of Greek creditors would have their report ready by Oct. 24. In an interview with Reuters, Juncker also told the news agency he would oppose expansion of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), because banks that need to be recapitalized should go to the financial markets, and only use the EFSF as a last resort. Greek officials met with the troika — the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank — last month as they work to avert a default. The possiblity of a Greek default has roiled markets around the world for the past several weeks.

U.K.

The Bank of England decided Thursday to restart its program of asset purchases, highlighting its concern that global economic tensions threaten the U.K. recovery. Bank of England launches more QE; pound drops. The bank’s monetary policy committee voted to increase the size of its asset-purchase program, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by 75 billion pounds (around $115 billion) to £275 billion. The program will likely take four months to complete and its scale will be kept under review, the committee said. I don’t think it will be enough to make a dent to the economy.

The Bank of England also kept its official interest rate Thursday at a record low 0.5%, where it has remained since March 2009. It was only three months ago that there were still members of the policy committee who were looking to increase interest rates, so today’s announcement marks a notable shift in the collective thinking. In the aftermath of the announcement, the British pound dropped to $1.5373, down from $1.5453 ahead of the news.

President Obama’s $447 Billion Job Speech

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

Calling the stagnant economy a “national crisis,” President Barack Obama challenged Congress on Thursday to quickly pass a broad jobs package of tax cuts and other incentives that the president said could give the economy a jolt. It may be the White House’s last chance to change its political fortunes before the 2012 campaign kicks into high gear. The jobs plan, called The American Jobs Act, “will cut payroll taxes in half for every working American and every small business,” Obama said to a joint session of Congress. Experts have put a price tag of about $440 billion on the plan. The $447 billion is more than the $300 billion initially expected. Obama said the bipartisan “super committee” should cut the deficit by more than the planned $1.5 trillion to pay for the program. “Everything in here is the kind of proposal that’s been supported by both Democrats and Republicans including many who sit here tonight. And everything in this bill will be paid for,” Mr. Obama said. Obama said he would support trimming Medicare and Medicaid entitlement programs to pay for the plan. “Ultimately, our recovery will be driven not by Washington, but by our businesses and our workers,” Mr. Obama said. “But we can help.” The president’s plan, unveiled in a speech to a joint session of Congress, is an attempt to wrest the initiative in Washington’s protracted debate about fiscal policy. Both parties emerged from the debt-ceiling fight this summer with their approval ratings heading south as the economy stalled and the unemployment rate stayed above 9%. The address came on the heels of a government report that showed the economy added zero jobs in August. The options available to policy makers, including at the Federal Reserve, are constrained both by the tepid public interest in spending more money on stimulus projects and the limits of monetary policy with short-term interest rates close to zero.

More than half up of $240 billion in tax relief of Mr. Obama’s plan consists of payroll-tax cuts for employees and employers, an idea the White House hopes will appeal enough to Republican lawmakers and is the policy that has the best chance to pass. On the tax front, Mr. Obama’s plan would cut the payroll tax for employers in half for businesses’ first $5 million of wages. Additionally, businesses would get a full payroll tax holiday for any increase in payroll up to $50 million. Companies will get a $4,000 tax credit if they hire someone who has been looking for a job for more than six months and an extra tax credit for hiring military veterans, the president said. Under this plan, the typical working family would get a tax credit of about $1,500, he said. Under the plan, the Social Security payroll tax would be cut to 3.1% on employees. It is usually set at 6.2%. This year, the tax has been 4.2%.

The president also called for more than $60 billion in spending to extend unemployment insurance benefits through 2012 and funding initiatives for Americans who have been out of work for more than six months. Republicans applauded Mr. Obama’s proposal to let workers keep receiving unemployment checks while they audition for a job. Mr. Obama’s plan includes an initiative, modeled after programs in states like Georgia and North Carolina, which would allow people who have been unemployed for six months or more to work for up to eight weeks while receiving unemployment benefits, a way to forestall the problems that come with long-term unemployment. The president’s plan also includes a work-sharing initiative that allows people to receive some unemployment benefits to avoid layoffs.

Mr. Obama studiously avoided calling his American Jobs Act a “stimulus” plan, a term freighted with political baggage. But it proposes $85 billion in aid to state and local governments, including cash for hiring teachers and refurbishing schools, as well as a $10 billion infrastructure bank and $50 billion for transportation projects. Republicans liked the idea of an infrastructure bank, funded with federal dollars, though others were suspicious of how the funds would be spent. Mr. Obama’s suggestions for increased spending on roads, rail lines, airports and waterways, as well as aid to states, drew GOP opposition.

The plan would put $25 billion toward refurbishing at least 35,000 schools, the White House said, and an additional $5 billion would go toward community colleges. The proposal doesn’t include a new plan to deal with the housing market. White House officials said the administration would put forward a housing proposal in coming weeks.

White House officials say they don’t expect Congress to pass every piece of the proposal. In that sense, the jobs plan is in part a political strategy designed to give Mr. Obama room to campaign against Congress if lawmakers don’t act. After this fall, hopes of accomplishing legislation diminish significantly with the election looming. Mr. Obama largely bucked pressure from members of his own party who have urged him to put forward a bold, left-leaning vision of how to stimulate the economy. Lawmakers may try to enact some elements in Mr. Obama’s speech that have bipartisan support to show Washington can tackle hard problems. “I think it would surprise us all how quickly optimism could return if the relation between the parties could improve,” Mr. Cantor said. The GOP also opted against offering a formal televised response to the speech and has been wary in recent days of appearing overly partisan. But a handful of GOP lawmakers, including Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) and Rep. Joe Walsh (R., Ill.), didn’t attend Thursday’s address, deriding it as little more than a campaign speech.

The president made cutting the deficit a footnote in his speech Thursday night. But, aware of voter interest in curtailing spending, he stressed that his plan will be paid for by closing tax loopholes and other deficit-reduction measures. Mr. Obama will call on a congressional supercommittee crafting a deficit-reduction package to aim for a larger number that also pays for his $447 billion plan over the next decade. Obama said he would propose a deficit-reduction plan on Sept. 19 that will cover the cost of his jobs bill and include “modest adjustments” to Medicare and Medicaid and more taxes for the rich and corporations. Economists have noted the relative small size of the plan and the debatable impact of a temporary cut in payroll taxes. The payroll-tax and unemployment-insurance provisions would be equivalent to about 1% of gross domestic product. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, estimated that the plan would add 2 percentage points to real GDP growth and 1.9 million payroll jobs, while reducing the unemployment rate by a percentage point. White House officials said most of the spending in Mr. Obama’s plan would take effect in 2012, although some funding, such as $35 billion for teacher hiring, could be spread over the next two years, White House officials said.

Obama, pushed through an $800 billion economic stimulus package in 2009, said his jobs plan would cut taxes for workers and businesses and put more construction workers and teachers on the job through infrastructure projects.

“And to help responsible homeowners, we’re going to work with Federal housing agencies to help more people refinance their mortgages at interest rates that are now near 4% — a step that can put more than $2,000 a year in a family’s pocket, and give a lift to an economy still burdened by the drop in housing prices,” Obama said. The changes to mortgage issues, will put a greater burden on Freddie Mac will have a stimulative impact. Obama wants Congress to pass his “American Jobs Act” by the end of this year. But that may be hard to achieve with politicians already focusing on the presidential and congressional elections in November 2012. If Obama can push through his plan, it might provide an economic boost quickly enough for him to reap political benefits. If it stalls in a divided Congress, his strategy will be to blame Republicans for obstructing the economic recovery.

The latest figures show 14 million people are unemployed. An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those with part-time employment, rose to 16.2% in August from 16.1% in the prior month. And over six million workers have been unemployed for over six months. Fed officials say this is especially troubling because these “long-term” unemployed workers have more trouble re-entering the work force because their skills atrophy.

US Tuesday’s Market Headwinds; Gold $1900, Europe Debt

Monday, September 5th, 2011

European stocks plunged on Monday while US markets were off for the Labor Day weekend. The European Central Bank (ECB) has lost some of the control it has been exercising on the Euro-zone’s sovereign bond market. Banks-sovereigns-policies are causing a major weakness in the markets. Banks stocks led the debacle on European bourses Monday, with drops of some 5-12 percent in a single day. With so many European banks holding European government debt on their balance sheets, the dramatic sell-off in their shares reflects mounting pressures in the sovereign bond markets. ECB purchases of Italian bonds on the secondary market had succeeded in keeping the yield at or below the 5 percent level for the “old” Italian ten-year benchmark bond. In recent days, however, the yield has migrated upwards and today it touched some 5.5 percent. Markets may be forcing Prime Minister Berlusconi out or telling the Italian Government to get its act together. European banks would not survive a revaluation of the sovereign debt on their books. Repeat of a 2008 Lehman in the works. Europe’s deepening debt and growth crisis amplifies the importance of President Obama’s effort to deal with America’s deepening unemployment and growth crisis; and does so by raising both the stakes and the challenges for the President. Gold prices rose back above $1,900 an ounce on Monday as expectations grew that the United States could implement a further round of monetary easing after Friday’s weak payrolls data, while concerns over the euro zone debt crisis resurfaced.

STOXX Europe 600 Banks index was down around 5.6 percent. It has a year-to-date loss of 33 percent after four straight months of declines. Royal Bank of Scotland was among the worst hit in a broad sector slide, down 10 percent, while the five-year credit default swap spread on its subordinated debt widened by more than 240 basis points. The bank is among the worst-placed of European lenders facing a multi-billion-dollar U.S. regulatory lawsuit accusing them of misrepresenting the checks they made on mortgages before securitizing them. German peer Deutsche Bank, also affected by the U.S. legal moves, was also hit by a UK press report naming it the subject of a probe into asset-backed securities by Britain’s Serious Fraud Office. Germany’s blue-chip DAX was the hardest hit, fell more than 4 percent to a fresh two-year low. London’s FTSE 100 (UKX) index finished its trading session down 3.2%, while France’s CAC 40 (CAC40) dropped 4%.

Tuesday’s futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not look favorable as the indices are set to fall -2.26% or 268 points to 10,940. The Standard & Poor’s Index SPX -2.53% declined 31.10 points to 1,138. On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management releases its index of activity for the U.S. services sector, which was expected to show a slowdown, but not outright contraction, in the rate of growth for non-manufacturing firms. That’s followed Thursday by weekly jobless claims for the period ending Sept. 3.

White House Lowers 2012 Economic Growth

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

White House’s budget experts have grown less optimistic about economic growth and jobs, having been sobered by recent developments such as the debt crisis in Europe and continued troubles in housing. The president, who must curb high unemployment to improve his chances of winning re-election in 2012, will give a major speech Sept. 8 on how he plans to lift hiring and growth. The White House budget office forecast Thursday that the unemployment rate won’t fall below 6% until 2017 — two years later than it predicted in February. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) also lowered its estimates for annual GDP growth by roughly a percentage point for this year, next year and 2013. Its forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are somewhat higher than they were. OMB said in its “mid-session review” that it now expects the economy to grow at a 1.7% rate this year, down from its 2.7% forecast in February. Growth is expected to be 2.6% next year and 3.5% in 2013. For 2011, it forecast the rate will stay at 9.1%. The budget office also said it still expects inflation to be moderate, coming in around 2% for much of the next decade. In terms of deficits, the administration now expects the deficit for this year to be $1.32 trillion, 20% below what it had forecast in February. A key reason for the improvement: more tax receipts and less spending than expected.

Deficits over the next decade are also expected to be better than they were forecast to be at the start of the year. That’s thanks in large part to the passage of the Budget Control Act, which has the potential to reduce the 10-year deficit by at least $2.1 trillion. While slower near-term growth will have an impact on people’s lives, the effect on the budget outlook over 10 years isn’t that substantial, the OMB said. That’s because any resulting increase in deficits is largely offset by a narrowed gap between taxes and spending. Congress must find at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction measures over the next 10 years. If it fails to act before late December, mandatory spending cuts of $1.2 trillion will be imposed equally on defense and non-defense spending, kicking in from 2013 and running through 2021.

In the latest reading from the economy, U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly grew in August and fewer Americans filed new claims for jobless aid last week.”Despite recent setbacks, the Administration expects the economy to grow at increasing rates in the months and years to come,” the White House said. “The potential for a sharp recovery is present,” it added, noting abundant capacity in the economy to increase output, including the high unemployment.

Obama has not yet laid out a detailed set of deficit reduction and job creation recommendations. But he has talked about measures to boost revenues by reforming the tax code to close some loopholes, and taking steps to reduce the long-term costs of popular entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare for older Americans. The White House said he will lay out these recommendations to a congressional committee tasked with finding budget savings later this month.

2012 Election Year

The unemployment rate the White House predicts for the fourth quarter of 2012 would be the highest for an incumbent since Franklin Delano Roosevelt successfully was re-elected in 1936 with a 16.6% unemployment rate. Jimmy Carter lost when he attempted re-election with a 7.5% unemployment rate. The U.S. unemployment rate will average 8.8% this year, falling from a previously estimated 9.3% as the economy grows at a moderate pace, the White House added. The stakes are high for the first-term president as he seeks re-election next year. Almost two-thirds 65% of respondents to a CNN/ORD poll released Thursday said they disapproved of the president’s handling of the economy. The OMB report paints a picture of an economy that is still growing painfully slowly for many Americans and warns that the jobless rate will decline only gradually over the next several years.

Next week, Obama is expected to stress infrastructure spending and payroll-tax cuts, among other ideas, to stimulate the economy. Republicans, meanwhile, want to slash taxes on small business owners and cut more government spending, presaging a drawn-out political battle. Representatives of both parties assigned to a new deficit-cutting “super committee” are also preparing to try to nail down $1.5 trillion in savings by Thanksgiving. The bipartisan group’s meetings are scheduled to begin this month.

Obama To Address Nation On Jobs Sept. 8

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

U.S. President Barack Obama on Wednesday agreed to unveil new jobs proposals in an address to Congress on Sept. 8, bowing to pressure from Republicans, who objected to the original date set for his high-profile speech. Obama had intended to make the speech Wednesday, Sept. 7. A Wednesday slot would have conflicted with a Republican presidential debate, while the new time conflicts with the opening game of the National Football League season, which usually garners high television ratings. Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives John Boehner asked Obama to come on Thursday instead of Wednesday, and the White House agreed. Both houses (of Congress) will also be back in session after their August recess on Wednesday, September 7th. Obama said in his letter to congressional leaders he would use the address to lay out job-boosting proposals that members of both parties could support.

The season-opening NFL football game between Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints will air at 8:30 p.m. EDT the same night on the NBC network, and many Americans would likely tune into that rather than watch an address by the president if they are at the same time. The timing of the speech has yet to be determined.

Obama said he would lay out a series of steps that Congress could act on immediately to strengthen small businesses and put “more money in the paychecks of the middle class and working Americans” while reducing the deficit. Carney said Obama’s speech would focus primarily on jobs, with detailed proposals on deficit reduction coming later. The proposals could include programs to fund infrastructure building, measures to help struggling homeowners, and tax breaks to encourage hiring of new workers.

Stocks Rally Post Hurricane Irene

Monday, August 29th, 2011

U.S. stocks rallied early Monday, extending last week’s advance, as investors breathed a sigh of relief that Hurricane Irene caused less damage than expected. The DJIA added 189 points, the S&P rose 23 points. With the weather story behind them, investors turned their attention to the damages from Irene, which were less dire than they had been fearing. That helped lift insurance company stocks. Morgan Stanley said they estimate total losses at below $10 billion, while Barclays estimate is $2 to $8 billion. Trading volume is expected to remain light as the New York subway system and commuter rail services slowly return to full service.

Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) rose 4.7%, leading the Dow’s advance. Allstate (ALL) shares climbed more than 7%, making the company a top gainer on the S&P 500. MetLife (MET) and Chubb Corp. (CB) spiked almost 5%. 

Investors also kept an eye on Europe’s ongoing debt problems. Greece reclaimed the spotlight after EFG Eurobank Ergasias and Alpha Bank — two of the country’s big lenders — announced plan to merge. That helped boost shares of the National Bank of Greece (NBG), which surged 32%. Bank mergers increase deposits, and improve balance sheets. That will help avoid anything catastrophic as far as Greece’s debt crisis goes.

Economics

Personal income rose 0.3% in July, while spending climbed 0.8% during the month. Economists were expecting income to tick up 0.4%, spending to edge up 0.5%. Pending home sales fell 1.3% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were expected to fall 1.4%, after rising 2.4% the prior month.

President Obama said he has chosen Princeton University labor economist Alan Krueger to become the top White House economist, succeeding Austan Goolsbee. The decision comes ahead of Obama’s jobs package speech, planned for shortly after the Labor Day holiday.

Coming Up This Week:

TUESDAY: S&P Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence, Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks, FOMC minutes
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, Challenger job-cut report, ADP employment report, Chicago PMI, factory orders, oil inventories, USDA’s agricultural trade outlook
THURSDAY: Weekly jobless claims, productivity and costs, ISM Mfg index, construction spending, chain store sales, auto sales
FRIDAY: Non-farm payroll

Market Massacre: DJIA Down 635, Gold $1700, VIX Up 50%

Monday, August 8th, 2011

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,809.85) swallowed its steepest loss since December 2008 today, giving up 634.8 points, or 5.6%, by the time the bell sounded. In fact, the DJIA ended south of the 11,000 level for the first time this calendar year. The S&P plummeted 79.92 points, or 6.66%, to close at 1,119.46, its lowest close since Sept. 10, 2010. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which last week lost 698 points, nearly matched that drop in a single session, with Monday marking its worst day since late 2008. With Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. credit exacting a heavy toll on already troubled investor sentiment.”Downgrade” was the word of the day on Wall Street today, as investors reacted to Standard & Poor’s late-Friday revision to the U.S. credit rating. The major market indexes headed south right out of the gate, and selling pressure intensified as the session progressed despite President Obama’s attempts to control the damage. Markets dropped another 2% after Obama’s speech.”No matter what some agency may say, we’ve always been and always will be a triple-A country,” Obama said, not long after the White House questioned S&P’s math. As traders made a mad dash for the relative safety of gold. The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, spiked above 40 to touch its highest level since March. 2009 up 50%. 13th worst single day decline since WWII.

Volume was very heavy with the consolidated tape of the NYSE at 9.29 billion shares, while 2.54 billion shares changed hands on the floor. That exceeded last Friday’s heavy volume, which was the heaviest since the Flash Crash on May 6, 2010. According to Dow Jones, this was the 4th largest volume day in history on the NYSE.

Crude oil futures followed stocks into the red today, as the downgrade-induced decline on Wall Street amplified fears of fading demand. By the close, September-dated crude fell $5.57, or 6.4%, to end at $81.31 per barrel, black gold’s lowest settlement price since Nov. 23, 2010. Gold futures, on the other hand, skyrocketed to a new all-time best today, after S&P’s downgrade sparked a widespread flight to safety. As traders shunned riskier assets in favor of tangible safe havens, December-dated gold futures soared $61.40, or 3.7%, to end at $1,713.20 an ounce. Earlier in the session, the most active contract topped out at $1,719.09 an ounce.

Where should one invest during a Market Correction. Read here for a list short based ETF’s

What Does The S&P Downgrade Affect

1. The cost of government borrowing just went up, that includes states and munis too. This adds to your tax burden.

2. Higher government borrowing costs filter through the economy. It makes it slightly more expensive for corporations to borrow money. This is a drag on GDP.

3. Higher corporate borrowing costs filter down to consumers-the cost of some consumer loans might be slightly higher.

4. Puts a lot of political pressure on elected officials to actually cut the budget. We need to get back to a more traditional GDP/debt ratio. Once that’s done, why wouldn’t S&P take us back up to AAA?

S&P Technicals

Is today’s 6.66% drop in the S&P strike a similar resemblance of March 9, 2009 low of 666? Some traders made a note of this key number. Does this mean, we’re bound for a rally? Is this a buy signal that will lead to a market capitulation. There was broad selling across the board.Its very hard to believe we’ll get a strong bounce similar to 2009. Lets put the VIX in the spotlight. October 2008 the VIX hit a striking high of 89.53. It doesn’t look like it’s stopping any time soon. It’s as if the markets are experiencing a slow steady “flash crash”. Read my initial call from May 23rd 2011. I hate to say this, but we may be heading to a double-dip recession if we close firmly below 1100. We’re 19 points away. Will the Fed safe the day tomorrow? Are we in a Correction or a Crash?

S&P Marks to keep in mind

6 Month 300 day Moving Average/61.8% retracement- 1220-1225 -BROKEN 8/4/2011

2nd support – 1195 -BROKEN 8/8/2011

50% Retracement – 1120-1150- Holding 1120- will this hold last line of defense.

10 year 200 day Moving Average/Ultimate Support/50% retracement – 1050 -1100 Double Dip Recession

Below 1070 – Double-Dip Recession – Growing increasingly Possible

May – August 2010 Neckline Low – 1050

Will the Fed announce QE3 Tomorrow

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday, which just two weeks ago was expected to be an almost throwaway gathering, has suddenly morphed into a major event. The Fed will have weighed both the market’s slide as well as recent economic data, such as the deterioration in manufacturing sector sentiment and the weak gross domestic product reports for both the first and second quarter. The question for them is whether this is a soft patch or a sustained slump in activity. We don’t know and they don’t know. Markets are discounting for the uncertainty. The market’s major question is if the Federal Reserve, which will deliver its interest-rate decision at 2:15 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, will give any hints on the initiation of a third round of quantitative easing, a so-called QE3. The August meeting won’t be followed a press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, so any information the Fed wants to convey will have to be transmitted through its written statement. Bernanke will be making his annual major policy address in Jackson Hole, Wyo., at the end of the month.

But Fed followers say there’s not much ammunition left in the central bank’s cannon. And more broadly, monetary policy isn’t really the problem.

On Tap This Week:

TUESDAY: NFIB small biz optimism index, productivity and costs, 3-yr note auction, FOMC mtg announcement; Earnings from Disney
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage apps, wholesale trade, oil inventories, 10-yr note auction, treasury budget; Earnings from Macy’s, Cisco
THURSDAY: International trade, jobless claims, 30-yr bond auction, money supply; Earnings from Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Nvidia
FRIDAY: Retail sales, consumer sentiment, business inventories; Earnings from JCPenney

US Debt Deal Equates To Austerity

Monday, August 1st, 2011

The US Debt Deal is a hidden form of austerity. An initial form of austerity that will take 10 years to make a minuscule dent to US overspending habits. Stocks opened sharply higher after top U.S. lawmakers sealed a deal to raise the debt ceiling one day ahead of a deadline for a potential default. President Obama announced a compromise that would shrink the deficit by around $2.4 trillion in the next 10 years. The Senate and the House of Representatives are due to vote on Monday and the bill could be signed by Obama in time to avoid a technical default by the U.S. on August 2, when the Treasury runs out of funds. Though half of what the initial $4 trillion proposed, Obama is willing to compromise which analysts say does not go far enough. Analysts predict this will lmock off 1% of US GDP.

The dollar enjoyed a relief rally against the yen and the Swiss franc but some analysts said  the move is likely to be short-lived as the deal struck by members of Congress does not necessarily remove the threat that the U.S. triple-A credit rating will be downgraded. Strategists have warned however that Wall Street’s relief rally may be short-lived as the weakness of the U.S. economy comes back to haunt investors.

Meanwhile Sun Helathcare // & Kindered Healthcare plunged after Medicare said it will cut payment rates to skilled nursing facilities by 11 percent next year.