Posts Tagged ‘weekly job-less claims’

Dollar Is Strengthening, Commodities Falling

Thursday, May 5th, 2011

Dollar re-adjusting Upward +/- 5% ($22.50) before next leg down

In a turn of events, the Dollar is now strengthening while commodities and stocks are faltering. Stocks fell after an unexpected jump in jobless claims, and as the dollar rose on comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. 

The euro slid against the dollar and yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation risks will be watched “very closely,” signaling the ECB may wait until after June to raise interest rates again. Trichet refrained from using the phrase “strong vigilance” that would have signaled a June rate increase, saying only that the ECB will monitor inflation risks “very closely.” Policy makers may want more time to assess the health of the euro-area economy before adding to April’s monetary tightening. While inflation accelerated to 2.8 percent last month and economic growth is gaining momentum, higher borrowing costs may exacerbate Europe’s debt crisis, which has already forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to ask for external help. Trichet’s comments seem less hawkish than the market had anticipated and the euro is coming off sharply. While recognizing policy remains accommodative, he is using none of the word cues that point to a June hike.

Monetary policy elsewhere is becoming tighter. Central banks in the Philippines and Malaysia today raised interest rates, and India this week increased its borrowing costs for the ninth time since March 2010. Rates in China, Asia’s biggest economy, may rise further after its central bank said yesterday that taming inflation is its top priority. With surging oil costs fueling price pressures, the period of “abnormally low” interest rates will be ending.

Initial claims for unemployment

Initial claims for unemployment rose 43,000 to 474,000 from an upwardly revised 431,000 the week before, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected claims to drop to 410,000. Claims are at the highest level since mid-August. The four-week moving average of unemployment claims rose by 22,250 to 431,250, the highest since November.  The news comes a day after a report showed a slowdown in the pace of private payroll growth and a decline in job cuts. The closely-watched monthly nonfarm payroll report from the government for April will be reported on Friday. Economists expect the nation added 186,000 jobs.

Nonfarm productivity in the first quarter, meanwhile, rose at a 1.6 percent annual rate, down from a 2.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department also reported.

****The way to play the dollar strength is by buying PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish; (NYSE:UUP) currently $20.99

****Short silver by buying (NYSE:ZSL) now up 22% since my bottom call at $14!

Last Economic News For 2010

Thursday, December 30th, 2010

Pending home sales jumped more than expected last month, although sales were still below normal levels, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in November, rose 3.5 percent to 92.2 from a downwardly revised 89.1 in October. Sales, however, were 5 percent lower than last year. 

Economists expected pending home sales to rise 2 percent, according to Reuters.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s business index soared to 68.6 in December from 62.5 a month earlier, boosted by gains in employment and new orders.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected this measure of Midwest manufacturing activity to drop to 61.

And initial claims for jobless benefits fell to 388,000 for the week ended Dec. 25 from a revised upward 422,000, a 29-month low, the Labor Department reported. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected claims to fall to between 415,000 and 420,000. The 4-week moving average for claims fell 12,500 to 414,000.

The markets didn’t react much to news as economists say seasonal factors add volatility to the numbers.

November pending home sales data will be released at 10 a.m. with economists looking for a 1.5 percent rise, according to Reuters. Crude inventory figures will be released at 1 p.m.

In a positive sign for the equity markets, $335 million flowed into U.S. stock funds for the week ended Dec. 21, the first sign of inflows in nearly three years, according to the Investment Company Institute, a mutual fund trade group. Bond funds, meanwhile, had outflows of about $4.37 billion, the ICI said.

The week before, 2.4 billion flowed out of U.S. equity funds, while $8.6 billion flowed out of bond funds. Analysts expect investors to move into stock funds as bonds and emerging markets lose favor.

Upbeat US Data Propels Markets Higher

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

Today is all about US Economic News.

Pending home sales for October were just released. They showed a month-over-month spike of 10.4%, which is a positive surprise since pending home sales had been widely expected to remain flat. What’s more, the monthly increase is the best move in almost 10 years of record keeping. Still, the October total translated to a 22.4% year-over-year drop, which was due to the increase in buying activity that followed the introduction of home buyer tax credits.

Stocks have spiked another leg higher with the release of the data. The news has been especially kind to home builders, which are collectively up 2.3%.

Jobless claims rose 26,000, more than expected, to 436,000 for the week ended Nov. 27 from a revised 410,000 the week before, the Labor Department reported. The 4-week moving average moved down 5,750 to 431,000.

Investors were disappointed European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet’s declined  to say the ECB would boost government bond purchases, but he said pointed out that he never said the limit of the European bond buying program. Trichet spoke after the central bank unveiled its decision to leave rates unchanged. Markets are looking for clues on the bank’s strategy regarding buying sovereign bonds from the euro zone. The ECB kept rates at a record low but could signal monetary easing ahead.  Also in Europe, Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero sought to reassure investors of the country’s economic stability Wednesday. Zapatero said in a CNBC interview that the country’s banking system was healthy. A 2.468-billion euro bond sale in Spain was well-subscribed, though the 3.72 percent yield was far higher than a similar auction two months ago.

Retailers offered positive news for the market as they posted better-than-expected sales reports for November, reflecting a strong start to the holiday shopping season. Shares of retailers were not universally higher because many have posted strong gains in recent weeks on expectations of a bright holiday season.

DJIA Rises After Job-Less Claims

Thursday, November 18th, 2010

The DJIA rose more than 130 points this morning, following a lackluster trading session on Wednesday that ended with the Dow slightly lower.

The market began the session with a more upbeat tone on anticipation of the GM launch, as well as news that Ireland’s central bank chief said he expected the country to receive a “very substantial” bailout amounting to tens of billions of euros. European shares also rose on the news out of Ireland. Asian indexes closed higher with the Nikkei 225 ending at a 5-month high.

In economic news, initial claims for unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 last week, the Labor Department said. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected claims to rise to 440,000. The previous week’s figure was revised higher to 437,000 from 435,000. The four-week average of new jobless claims fell 4,000 to 443,000, the lowest level since the week ending Sept. 6, 2008.

General Motors (GM)  34.99  priced its stock offering at $33 per share last night, but it opened more than 7 percent higher. The listing could net GM $23 billion and will reduce the government’s stake in the company to below 40 percent from 60 percent.

A gauge of future U.S. economic activity posted a solid rise in October and, according to Conference Board officials, signaled a potential pickup in the pace of activity ahead. The business research group said Thursday its Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5 percent in October, matching September’s revised gain and following a 0.1 percent August advance. “The economy is slow, but latest data on the U.S. LEI suggest that change may be around the corner,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Board. “Expect modest holiday sales, driven by steep discounting. But following a post-holiday lull, the indicators are suggesting a mild pickup this spring.” he added.

Earnings and Markets Robust; Rally Continues

Thursday, October 21st, 2010

U.S. stocks climbed Thursday, propelled higher by a wave of encouraging corporate earnings from blue-chip names including Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Travelers. Furthermore markets climed higher after news of manufacturing activity and an increase in a gauage of U.S. economic activity. The market was already higher after several positive earnings reports and news that jobless claims fell more than expected gave investors reason to believe the economy is improving.

The DJIA gained +89.45 to 11156. A rush of corporate quarterly reports helped the measure extend its gains from the previous day, when the Dow added 129 points. Boosting sentiment widely, a long string of companies reported earnings and revenue above analysts’ expectations.

Ebay (EBAY)  27.77  up 10%  // is among other stocks to watch after it reported quarterly profit and revenue that beat expectations after the close on Wednesday. Netflix (NFLX) 173.59 up 13%  also reported strong results as it added subscribers.

Economics

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell 23,000 to 452,000 for the week ended Oct. 16, the Labor Department said Thursday. The forecast was for claims to drop to 455,000, down from a revised 475,000 the week before, according to analysts. 

Investors also digested data showing China’s growth cooled in the third quarter even as inflation edged higher. The major indexes in Europe were broadly higher, as money moved into defensive stocks. China’s economic growth cooled in the third quarter, but was slightly stronger than expected. The nation’s National Bureau of Statistics said the economy grew 9.6% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had produced a consensus estimate of 9.5%.

The index of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region returned to positive territory for the first time in three months in October, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed diffusion index rose to a positive 1.0 in October from a negative 0.7 in September. The increase was not as strong as expected. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 1.4. The index is still well below levels seen earlier this year. The index was 21.4 as recently as May. Indexes for new orders and shipments continued to indicate weakness. The new orders index remained negative for the fourth consecutive month. Firms continue to report declines in inventories and unfilled orders. The index for employment was slightly positive.

U.S. economic growth is “slow” and doesn’t have momentum, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported that its leading economic index rose 0.3% in September. The leading economic index – a weighted gauge of ten separate indicators – rose as economists had anticipated. The six-month change has slowed to 0.8% from 5.1%. The index for August was revised lower to 0.1%, from the 0.3% rise initially reported, and the July index was revised higher to 0.2%, from the 0.1% rise initially reported.

DJIA Next Target 1100; S&P 1200

Thursday, October 7th, 2010

Stocks are struggling for direction Thursday as the Dow was in striking distance of 11,000 for the first time since May. The highest close for the blue-chip index this year was 11,205.03, reached on April 26. The Dow closed above 11,000 15 times in April and early May before the flash crash. I think we need an assuarance from Q3 earnings to give us a clear and firm momentum upwards.

A late burst of back-to-school shopping helped many U.S. retail chains to top analysts’ estimates in September. On average, retail sales rose 2.8 percent in September, topping average analysts’ estimates that called for a 2.1 percent gain. Positive results have been released so far from Limited Brands, Zumiez, and Abercrombie & Fitch, which soared to lead the S&P 500. disappointing figures came from Target, BJ’s Wholesale and Gap.

Earnings season kicks off unofficially after the bell on Thursday when Alcoa // releases results.

In economic news, jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 445,000, the lowest level in three months, for the week ended Oct. 2, below the critical level of 450,000. That’s better than a  Briefing.com poll, which said first-time claims for jobless benefits would fall to 450,000 new claims, down from the revised 456,000.

The big jobs news is due Friday with the release of nonfarm payrolls news by the U.S. Labor Department.

Claims Jump & Buffet Says Still In Recession

Thursday, September 23rd, 2010

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 465,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, breaking two straight weeks of declines. Analysts polled had forecast claims unchanged at 450,000. The prior week’s figure was revised up to 453,000. New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, highlighting continued labor market weakness. 

A Labor Department official said only one state had been estimated for last week’s claims report and noted that applications for jobless benefits tend to rise in the week following a holiday. The four-week average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 3,250 to 463,250, the lowest since July 31. The labor market has been showing modest signs of improvement after a setback in the second quarter as economic growth slowed sharply.

Relentlessly high unemployment is crimping consumer spending and the Federal Reserve on Tuesday signaled it would, if needed, inject more money into the economy to shore up the recovery and avert a damaging downward spiral in prices. The central bank already has cut overnight interest rates to near zero and pumped more than $1.7 trillion into the economy with purchases of Treasury and mortgage-related debt. Stimulating the lethargic economy is a major challenge for President Barack Obama, and a wave of voter anger over a 9.6 percent unemployment rate could cause the Democratic Party to lose control of Congress to Republicans in the Nov. 2 mid-term election.

The number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 48,000 to 4.49 million in the week ended Sept. 11 from an upwardly revised 4.54 million the prior week. The insured unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of the insured labor force that is jobless, dipped to 3.5 percent during that period from 3.6 percent the prior week. The number of people on emergency benefits increased 113,785 to 4.2 million in the week ended Sept. 4

Buffet

Warren Buffett, a financial leader and a bellwether of business, said we are still in a recession, but he also cautioned people against blaming the government. The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway sat down with CNBC’s Becky Quick to talk about the recession and the recovery.

“The government did the right thing in getting the economy going again,” Buffett said. In the second half of the interview, Buffett returned to the government’s role in the recovery. He suggested that the Federal Reserve, rather than paying banks a quarter of percent on the trillion dollars on deposit, should charge a quarter of percent to leave their money on deposit to encourage banks to make loans.

The government’s policies are not “kick-starting things as much as the American public would like,” Buffett said. However, “we will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. … But it’s not helpful to have people as unhappy as they are about what’s going on in Washington.” Even though the National Bureau of Economic Research declared we were no longer in a recession, Buffett said: “We’re in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back to where it was before. … We’re still in a recession and we’re not gonna be out of it for a while. But we will get out of it.”

Quiet Morning; Trade News Mixed

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

The Dow slipped lower, after rising initially, after the government reported a slight drop in jobless claims and news of a stronger-than-expected showing in retail sales for August. 

The Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 472,000 for the week ended Aug. 28, better than the 475,000 forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Last week’s claims were revised up to 478,000 in Thursday’s report.  The government reported nonfarm productivity fell 1.8 percent, more than previously estimated in the second quarter and the largest drop since the third quarter of 2006. Consensus forecasts called for productivity to have dropped to a 1.9 percent annual rate and unit labor costs to have risen by 1.1 percent.

September started on a positive note driven by positive news on manufacturing in the U.S. and China, but investors now have their eyes on Friday’s monthly jobs report for insight on the health of the U.S. economy.

In other news; retailers are turning in surprisingly strong monthly sales reports in August, as sales-tax-free holidays and discounting coaxed shoppers to open their wallets and stock up on back-to-school items.  Overall, the Thomson Reuters Same-Store Sales Index is expected to rise 2.5 percent in August, the research firm said. The majority of the retailers reporting monthly sales results have topped analysts’ estimates, according to Thomson Reuters.  Consumers remain cautious about spending as unemployment remains high and questions about the economy persist. The real test for retailers will come in September. That is when investors will see if consumers are truly picking up their spending or if back-to-school sales merely shifted to August from September.

At 10 a.m., the National Association of Realtors will be out with its pending home sales report for July. Economists think home sales that have gone to contract but not yet closed fell 1 percent in July following a 2.6 percent gain in June. Also out at that time is the government’s July factory orders report, seen as rising by 0.2 percent after a 1.2 percent drop in June.

Jobless Slightly Better Markets In Black

Thursday, August 26th, 2010

Stocks recently ran into a sudden flurry of selling pressure, which sent the Dow briefly into the red and dropped both the Nasdaq and the S&P to the neutral line. Stocks have since made a modest bounce back.

The dollar has dropped to a fresh session low. It is now down 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Meanwhile, the euro is up 0.6% and near the session high that it set amid news of a solid debt auction from Ireland.

 U.S. stocks advanced modestly Thursday as investors welcomed a bigger-than-expected drop in weekly jobless claims and hoped that the market’s recent battering has been overdone.

As it stands The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 27 points, boosted by rare encouraging news from the labor market.

Initial unemployment claims declined by 31,000 to 473,000 in the week ended Aug. 21, the Labor Department said in its weekly report. New claims for the previous week, ended Aug. 14, were revised upward to 504,000 from 500,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted filings would decline by 10,000.

In a troubling sign, however, the four-week moving average, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, rose by 3,250 to 486,750, the highest since Nov. 28, 2009.

Markets Continue Downward Trend: Day 3

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

U.S. stocks declined for a third straight session as economic warnings from weekly jobs data and Cisco Systems Inc. added to investors’ concerns about a possible double-dip recession. The DJIA – 10,319.95 swallowed a loss of 59 points, or 0.6%, finishing south of breakeven for the third straight session. Only 11 of the Dow’s 30 blue chips bucked the trend, with Verizon Communications (VZ) pacing the advancing equities, while Cisco Systems led the 19 laggards with a hefty 10% loss. So far this week, the blue-chip barometer has already given up 3.1%, and is in danger of giving up its short-lived foothold atop its 10-month moving average. The S&P (SPX – 1,083.61) surrendered 5.9 points, or 0.5%, by the closing bell, finishing its second straight session beneath its 200-day moving average.

The latest economic snapshots showed U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose and euro-zone industrial production fell. Cisco,  (CSCO) a technology bellwether seen as a proxy for broad corporate spending, reported revenue that fell short of forecasts and offered a gloomy sales outlook. Cisco’s report is throwing a wrench to the growth engine on the issue of acceleration of technological capital goods spending.

Data from Uncle Sam also played a part in the day’s dismal backdrop, with the Labor Department announcing a surprise increase in first-time jobless claims. In the latest week, initial unemployment filings rose by 2,000 to a near six-month peak of 484,000, defying economists’ predictions for a decline to 463,000. The discouraging data on both the earnings and economic fronts exacerbated concerns about the pace of the economic recovery, with investors shunning stocks in favor of less risky assets like government securities and gold.

Gold rose to $1214.80, its highest settle since the end of June, while crude-oil futures slid for the sixth day in the last seven, tumbling 2.9% to below $76 a barrel.